Tournament Play

Capt. Factorial said:
Not yet. If Golden state wins tonight, we have to beat them. If we lost to them, we would lose the group on the head-to-head tiebreaker, and we would lose the wild card tiebreaker to Phoenix on point differential.
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I think Minnie could end up 3-1 too, dont they have one more game?
 
Capt. Factorial said:
Edit: But I guess a three-way tie with Minny and GSW would actually...bring differential back into it.
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OK, for a three-way tie-breaker, we are currently +29, the Wolves are -3 and the Warriors are -1 (pending tonight's outcome). So we have a very big differential advantage for the time being if we lose to GSW on Tuesday.
 
Capt. Factorial said:
OK, for a three-way tie-breaker, we are currently +29, the Wolves are -3 and the Warriors are -1 (pending tonight's outcome). So we have a very big differential advantage for the time being if we lose to GSW on Tuesday.
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You'd like to think that the Kings can avoid losing to the Warriors by 30+ at home.
 
Capt. Factorial said:
OK, for a three-way tie-breaker, we are currently +29, the Wolves are -3 and the Warriors are -1 (pending tonight's outcome). So we have a very big differential advantage for the time being if we lose to GSW on Tuesday.
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The Spurs didn't win, but they did make a furious comeback to help us in the differential column. Things are pretty simple.

If we beat the Warriors, we win the group.

If we lose to the Warriors and the Wolves lose to the Thunder, the Warriors win the group.

If we lose to the Warriors and the Wolves beat the Thunder, it goes to point differential. We are currently +29, the Warriors are +5, and the Wolves are -3. So we have a lot of latitude in this scenario. If we get beat by 12+, we're done. If we get beat by 11 or less, then it depends on how much the Wolves win by. Any way you look at it, the Wolves would need to make up 33 points on us, so they'd need to win by 22-32 points depending on our loss margin, otherwise we would get the tiebreaker and win the group.

In no event can we get the wild card. If we win, we win the group outright. If we lose, the Suns (at least) will beat us in differential for the wild card.
 
Hello Kings fans !
I am a fresh kings fan (I from Bulgaria so you can imagine why ) …
I didn’t miss a single minute so far in the season (including the summer games :) ) , but I waited a bit to register cause I wanted to to catch the mood of the forum …
My first post is actually about the in season tournament …
Isn’t it the tie breaking rules in that scenario apply only to the H2H games between the teams with equal points .
In that way it should look like this :
We are plus 13
Minnesota are minus 10 (so they are out of the race doesn’t matter the game with OKC)
Golden state is minus 3
So we have to stay under 8 (in a bad case of loose) in order to advance ?
 
Capt. Factorial said:
The Spurs didn't win, but they did make a furious comeback to help us in the differential column. Things are pretty simple.

If we beat the Warriors, we win the group.

If we lose to the Warriors and the Wolves lose to the Thunder, the Warriors win the group.

If we lose to the Warriors and the Wolves beat the Thunder, it goes to point differential. We are currently +29, the Warriors are +5, and the Wolves are -3. So we have a lot of latitude in this scenario. If we get beat by 12+, we're done. If we get beat by 11 or less, then it depends on how much the Wolves win by. Any way you look at it, the Wolves would need to make up 33 points on us, so they'd need to win by 22-32 points depending on our loss margin, otherwise we would get the tiebreaker and win the group.

In no event can we get the wild card. If we win, we win the group outright. If we lose, the Suns (at least) will beat us in differential for the wild card.
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NBA is getting what they wanted. Only 2 teams clinched so far, and a ton of really interesting games and scenarios on the slate for Tuesday. It crushes me to think Kings could miss out even after beating OKC and Minnesota. This will have the feeling of a playoff game against the Warriors and hopefully we get some revenge at home this time
 
ick300 said:
Hello Kings fans !
I am a fresh kings fan (I from Bulgaria so you can imagine why ) …
I didn’t miss a single minute so far in the season (including the summer games :) ) , but I waited a bit to register cause I wanted to to catch the mood of the forum …
My first post is actually about the in season tournament …
Isn’t it the tie breaking rules in that scenario apply only to the H2H games between the teams with equal points .
In that way it should look like this :
We are plus 13
Minnesota are minus 10 (so they are out of the race doesn’t matter the game with OKC)
Golden state is minus 3
So we have to stay under 8 (in a bad case of loose) in order to advance ?
Click to expand...

Welcome!

The official NBA site lists tiebreaker #2 as "point differential in the group stage". There is no indication that the point differential would only be between the teams involved in the tie (this would likely be phrased "head-to-head point differential in the group stage"). It would be very unusual to interpret that phrase in any way except that it means all group games. I've done a quick analysis of where we stand on point differential a few posts above yours.
 
Capt. Factorial said:
Welcome!

The official NBA site lists tiebreaker #2 as "point differential in the group stage". There is no indication that the point differential would only be between the teams involved in the tie (this would likely be phrased "head-to-head point differential in the group stage"). It would be very unusual to interpret that phrase in any way except that it means all group games. I've done a quick analysis of where we stand on point differential a few posts above yours.
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well if that the case even better …
Can see Golden state beating us with double digits unless curry hits 100 points this time
 
SLAB said:
Oh good. Looks like we have to beat the Warriors to advance in something. I’m sure it will go swimmingly. Smh
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you left out the best part. We have to beat the Warriors and then beat the Pels or Rockets to advance at something



if we beat the Warriors by 45 or more we get the top seed

if we win by less than 45 and more than 4 we play the Pels @SAC if the Mavs beat the Rockets. If we win by less than 4 we go back to New Orleans.

if the Rockets beat the Mavs and win by 13 more than we beat the Warriors we get to go back to Houston. If the Rockets and we win by less than 13 then the Rockets come to Sac.

if we lose and the T-Wolves win then we should go back to New Orleans (see Captain) if the Mavs win or back to Houston if the combined Rockets win margin and our loss Margin is greater than 13.
 
sactowndog said:
you left out the best part. We have to beat the Warriors and then beat the Pels or Rockets to advance at something



if we beat the Warriors by 45 or more we get the top seed

if we win by less than 45 and more than 4 we play the Pels @SAC if the Mavs beat the Rockets. If we win by less than 4 we go back to New Orleans.

if the Rockets beat the Mavs and win by 13 more than we beat the Warriors we get to go back to Houston. If the Rockets and we win by less than 13 then the Rockets come to Sac.

if we lose and the T-Wolves win then we should go back to New Orleans (see Captain) if the Mavs win or back to Houston if the combined Rockets win margin and our loss Margin is greater than 13.
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Jesus Christ. I’d rather get knocked out now than play the damn Pelicans again
 
206Fan said:
Jesus Christ. I’d rather get knocked out now than play the damn Pelicans again
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Yeah, they are tough matchup for just about anybody healthy. If I remember right, they were the top team in the west last season and had handily beat down a healthy Phoenix team twice before Zion went down. I think much of it was done without Brandon Ingram as well.

Zion is just a dominant offensive player. I don’t know if there is a matchup for him in the NBA. Maybe prime Ron Ron had the mix of strength and athleticism to bother Zion, but nobody today.
 
Kingz19 said:
Yeah, they are tough matchup for just about anybody healthy. If I remember right, they were the top team in the west last season and had handily beat down a healthy Phoenix team twice before Zion went down. I think much of it was done without Brandon Ingram as well.

Zion is just a dominant offensive player. I don’t know if there is a matchup for him in the NBA. Maybe prime Ron Ron had the mix of strength and athleticism to bother Zion, but nobody today.
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I'd like to see Lyles match up against Zion, then have Murray on Ingram when Murray gets healthy. The Pelicans don't have anybody to match up against Fox, either, so I think that would be doable for the Kings.
 
Kingster said:
I'd like to see Lyles match up against Zion, then have Murray on Ingram when Murray gets healthy. The Pelicans don't have anybody to match up against Fox, either, so I think that would be doable for the Kings.
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Alvardo did a pretty good job on Fox, and Alvardo himself is not 100%. The Pelicans held Fox to his worst game in 2-3 years
 
206Fan said:
Alvardo did a pretty good job on Fox, and Alvardo himself is not 100%. The Pelicans held Fox to his worst game in 2-3 years
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I’ll def give the Pelicans some credit but Fox looked slow as molasses out there. We saw this last year when he got injured early in the year and he played through it but looked rough for 3-5 games. I think he is still hampered by this ankle but will still have the occasional game where the adrenaline carries him through.
 
Lots of stuff in random threads, lets consolidate.

Wow, so the Pels lost the wild card by 1 basket.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38192234/what-nba-season-tournament-format-schedule-groups

If Houston loses, the New Orleans Pelicans will win the group. That's because the Pelicans improved to 3-1 Friday night with a 112-102 win over the LA Clippers. However, because the Pelicans won by 10 instead of 12, they did not put themselves in front of the Suns for a wild-card spot -- which is why their hopes of advancing come down to the Rockets losing to Dallas.
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Kings win vs GS they play the Rockets or Pels at home.

Heading into the final group stage games, the Kings have a plus-29 point differential, the Warriors a plus-5 and the Timberwolves minus-3.

That sets up the following scenarios:

  • If Sacramento beats Golden State, it wins the group and clinches a home game in the quarterfinals.
  • If Golden State beats Sacramento and Minnesota loses to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State captures the group and Sacramento is eliminated.
  • If Golden State and Minnesota win, it sets up a three-way tie between the Warriors, Kings and Timberwolves, meaning the deadlock will be broken by point differential. In that scenario, Golden State will have to win by at least 13 points to guarantee it finishes ahead of the Kings and Minnesota will need to defeat the Thunder by at least 8 more points than the Warriors beat the Kings to have a chance of winning the group and advancing to the quarterfinals.
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Lakers play the Suns.

Biggest upset? Denver not qualifying.
 
Kingz19 said:
Yeah, they are tough matchup for just about anybody healthy. If I remember right, they were the top team in the west last season and had handily beat down a healthy Phoenix team twice before Zion went down. I think much of it was done without Brandon Ingram as well.

Zion is just a dominant offensive player. I don’t know if there is a matchup for him in the NBA. Maybe prime Ron Ron had the mix of strength and athleticism to bother Zion, but nobody today.
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Bron back in the day is who comes to mind for me: athleticism, strength, bulk, smarts.
 
I'll take this win in exchange for the two NOP every day and twice on Black Friday.

also quick word of caution for anyone that things we can get by on SD with a loss to the Dubs, those points count double since a 2 point win by GS would be a 4 point swing -2 for us and +2 for them.

We must beat GS and leave no doubt.
 
sactowndog said:
you left out the best part. We have to beat the Warriors and then beat the Pels or Rockets to advance at something



if we beat the Warriors by 45 or more we get the top seed

if we win by less than 45 and more than 4 we play the Pels @SAC if the Mavs beat the Rockets. If we win by less than 4 we go back to New Orleans.

if the Rockets beat the Mavs and win by 13 more than we beat the Warriors we get to go back to Houston. If the Rockets and we win by less than 13 then the Rockets come to Sac.

if we lose and the T-Wolves win then we should go back to New Orleans (see Captain) if the Mavs win or back to Houston if the combined Rockets win margin and our loss Margin is greater than 13.
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Huh?
 
sactowndog said:
yeah you are correct. The Kings would be 4-0 and would host the Pels or the Rockets.
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The ultimate irony is that if we squeak in on the 3-way tiebreaker, we will play Houston or New Orleans, almost certainly on the road (New Orleans would be on the road, Houston would come down to point differential but we wouldn't have much margin for error).

Exactly where we'd like to go, seeing as we're 0-4 on the Gulf Coast this year and 9-2 anywhere else.

But to avoid going on the road to play two teams we've gone 0-2 against...we have to beat another team we've already gone 0-2 against. Sheesh.
 
206Fan said:
Jesus Christ. I’d rather get knocked out now than play the damn Pelicans again
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Really? I’d love to take them on again, especially with Keegan back and at full strength. The Wolves were a team last season that i thought I’d never want us to see any time soon and we handled em. We’ll figure the pelicans out and return the favor eventually, IMO - this Kings squad seems to respond very very well.
 
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