The 'treadmill' debate... again... (split from the Bucks [Game] thread)
- Thread starter kb02
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Trolls gonna troll.
Look at the big picture. We are at the dawn of "The Return of the Greatest Show on Court" and people are bitching and moaning over the Kings losing to a championship caliber team. Do people really think you can go from a lottery team to a championship contender overnight with new players and new coach?
The entire NBA fandom loves watching the new fun Kings but we find Kings fans still moping from leftover PTSD. Live in the moment and embrace the joy. It's gonna be a bumpy but fun ride.
Look at the big picture. We are at the dawn of "The Return of the Greatest Show on Court" and people are bitching and moaning over the Kings losing to a championship caliber team. Do people really think you can go from a lottery team to a championship contender overnight with new players and new coach?
The entire NBA fandom loves watching the new fun Kings but we find Kings fans still moping from leftover PTSD. Live in the moment and embrace the joy. It's gonna be a bumpy but fun ride.
On the road, no less.
We're over a quarter of the way through the season, 3 games over .500, in the #5 playoff position, and for the first time since the mid-aughts we can take a sober look and say "that's not an illusion; that's who we are". New coach, four major new players (including Sabonis in that mix) - this is a '98-'99 style reboot. That '98-'99 team didn't click until 40 games into the season (in a shortened season). We've already clicked.
So enjoy this season like we enjoyed '98-'99. Blow out eardrums at G1C. Light some beams. Let's make our way into the playoffs. We'll get beat there, probably in the first round, but roll with it and know that following that we can come back even better next year. Enjoy this. We deserve it.
We're over a quarter of the way through the season, 3 games over .500, in the #5 playoff position, and for the first time since the mid-aughts we can take a sober look and say "that's not an illusion; that's who we are". New coach, four major new players (including Sabonis in that mix) - this is a '98-'99 style reboot. That '98-'99 team didn't click until 40 games into the season (in a shortened season). We've already clicked.
So enjoy this season like we enjoyed '98-'99. Blow out eardrums at G1C. Light some beams. Let's make our way into the playoffs. We'll get beat there, probably in the first round, but roll with it and know that following that we can come back even better next year. Enjoy this. We deserve it.
Not to be mean but 98-99 is only meaningful to old fossils like us who were watching the team back then. We have posters on here who were not even born yet. But I could not agree more. I am just sitting back and enjoying the ride this season. Watching great basketball is its own reward that was true when we beat Chicago and it was true last night against the Bucks.
Go as far back as you’d like. I have always been for a tank for a star, don’t ever treadmill strategy. Over drafting a 4/3 at #4 n trading away a future first just to treadmill aint my thing. But if it’s yours, cool. I mean, the Kings have a 6th man banner. Maybe they’ll shoot a tangerine colored beam for half time leads too.
This is the straw man of all straw mans. You've been ranting now for over a year about how "Middle Manager Monte" is running this team into the ground and will be fired before this season is over once his sheer incompetence becomes apparent...
And NOW when the team Monte put together is actually playing well to the tune of a top 5 in the league offense and a defense which is trending somewhere in the range of respectable you're going to argue that the team is treadmilling because we didn't beat a Bucks team on the road that just won the last NBA championship? Sabonis is 26. Fox, Metu, and Davis are 25. Huerter, Monk, and Mitchell are 24. Okpala is 23. Murray is 22. That's 9 of the top 11 guys in minutes played so far who are all 26 or under. Monte will have somewhere around 80 million in cap space to spend in the 2024 off-season to re-sign Sabonis (and Monk possibly?) and add another piece. Nothing about this situation suggests we are treadmilling.
Let's talk about Keegan Murray - the "4/3 #4 pick" Monte took instead of future superstars Paulo Banchero or Jaden Ivey. Keegan Murray does 2 things those two don't do: he hits outside shots at a league average rate and he defends his position. Banchero has led Orlando to a 6-20 record. He's averaging 21ppg but shooting 24% from range. Ivey has another #1 pick (Cade Cunningham) playing alongside him and together they've led Detroit to a 7-20 record. He's shooting a little better than Banchero at 31% from deep. Both are averaging nearly 3 TOs per game.
Let's talk about Kevin Huerter - the guy Monte traded a future first for. Huerter is shooting 7 threes a game and making 42% of them. He has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. He's signed for three more years and he's currently an above average starter being paid like a bench player. That contract is going to allow us to go out and get another piece in free agency in the next couple years without tip-toeing into luxury tax territory.
Let's talk about Tyrese Haliburton and the 2020 draft. What jumps out to me about this draft is that nearly the entire top 10 has busted. Yes it's too early to say that definitively but I think we can say that Tyrese Haliburton, Desmond Bane, and Tyrese Maxey appear to be the only stars here and they were taken 12th, 30th, and 21st respectively. Tank for a superstar? I have previously argued that strategy only works about 1 year in 10. Now I think that was being overly generous. Here's the last 10 first overall picks:
(2013) Anthony Bennett (2014) Andrew Wiggins (2015) Karl Towns (2016) Ben Simmons (2017) Markelle Fultz
(2018) DeAndre Ayton (2019) Zion Williamson (2020) Anthony Edwards (2021) Cade Cunningham (2022) Paulo Banchero
Three of these guys went to Minnesota! Three! They're currently 11th in the Western Conference at 12-12 and have won 3 playoff games in the last 18 years. Two of these guys went to Philadelphia. Both of them are gone. The Sixers are also 12-12 which puts them 8th in the Eastern Conference. The last time they got past the second round of the playoffs the team was still led by Allen Iverson. The Kings are a better team this year than both of those teams with a younger roster and a better salary cap situation. So are Haliburton's Pacers.
If anything, the treadmill to mediocrity is bottoming out for a top pick and then expecting them to lead your garbage team to the promised land (*cough* Marvin Bagley). Taking a great team basketball player at #4 instead of swinging big on a highlight reel darling is frankly the best basketball-related decision this franchise has made in the last 20 years. Hiring a journeyman coach who understands the league and values defense is right up there. Trading Tyrese Haliburton hurt -- he's playing like the All-Star we all know he is this season and I'm happy for him and the Pacers. It was also the right decision. Domantas Sabonis is the focal point of a top 5 offense and arguably a top 5 center in the league right now.
Bad teams stockpile talent. Good teams know that fit is everything. Fox, Huerter, Murray, Barnes, and Sabonis is a unit that makes sense not just on paper but in real NBA games. They have a very good coach who holds them accountable and has them in a position to win most games both at home and on the road. This roster is the culmination of Monte McNair's efforts since he took the job and the Kings are the huge success story of the season so far. Treadmilling? Seriously? That would be laughably inaccurate from a casual NBA fan but from a dedicated basketball nut and Kings fan like yourself it's something else. I'm not mad about it, but it does feel like you're bending over backwards to find something to complain about. I'm wondering how long it will take for you to give up your anti-Monte crusade, admit defeat, and join the rest of us in celebrating a good thing.
And NOW when the team Monte put together is actually playing well to the tune of a top 5 in the league offense and a defense which is trending somewhere in the range of respectable you're going to argue that the team is treadmilling because we didn't beat a Bucks team on the road that just won the last NBA championship? Sabonis is 26. Fox, Metu, and Davis are 25. Huerter, Monk, and Mitchell are 24. Okpala is 23. Murray is 22. That's 9 of the top 11 guys in minutes played so far who are all 26 or under. Monte will have somewhere around 80 million in cap space to spend in the 2024 off-season to re-sign Sabonis (and Monk possibly?) and add another piece. Nothing about this situation suggests we are treadmilling.
Let's talk about Keegan Murray - the "4/3 #4 pick" Monte took instead of future superstars Paulo Banchero or Jaden Ivey. Keegan Murray does 2 things those two don't do: he hits outside shots at a league average rate and he defends his position. Banchero has led Orlando to a 6-20 record. He's averaging 21ppg but shooting 24% from range. Ivey has another #1 pick (Cade Cunningham) playing alongside him and together they've led Detroit to a 7-20 record. He's shooting a little better than Banchero at 31% from deep. Both are averaging nearly 3 TOs per game.
Let's talk about Kevin Huerter - the guy Monte traded a future first for. Huerter is shooting 7 threes a game and making 42% of them. He has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. He's signed for three more years and he's currently an above average starter being paid like a bench player. That contract is going to allow us to go out and get another piece in free agency in the next couple years without tip-toeing into luxury tax territory.
Let's talk about Tyrese Haliburton and the 2020 draft. What jumps out to me about this draft is that nearly the entire top 10 has busted. Yes it's too early to say that definitively but I think we can say that Tyrese Haliburton, Desmond Bane, and Tyrese Maxey appear to be the only stars here and they were taken 12th, 30th, and 21st respectively. Tank for a superstar? I have previously argued that strategy only works about 1 year in 10. Now I think that was being overly generous. Here's the last 10 first overall picks:
(2013) Anthony Bennett (2014) Andrew Wiggins (2015) Karl Towns (2016) Ben Simmons (2017) Markelle Fultz
(2018) DeAndre Ayton (2019) Zion Williamson (2020) Anthony Edwards (2021) Cade Cunningham (2022) Paulo Banchero
Three of these guys went to Minnesota! Three! They're currently 11th in the Western Conference at 12-12 and have won 3 playoff games in the last 18 years. Two of these guys went to Philadelphia. Both of them are gone. The Sixers are also 12-12 which puts them 8th in the Eastern Conference. The last time they got past the second round of the playoffs the team was still led by Allen Iverson. The Kings are a better team this year than both of those teams with a younger roster and a better salary cap situation. So are Haliburton's Pacers.
If anything, the treadmill to mediocrity is bottoming out for a top pick and then expecting them to lead your garbage team to the promised land (*cough* Marvin Bagley). Taking a great team basketball player at #4 instead of swinging big on a highlight reel darling is frankly the best basketball-related decision this franchise has made in the last 20 years. Hiring a journeyman coach who understands the league and values defense is right up there. Trading Tyrese Haliburton hurt -- he's playing like the All-Star we all know he is this season and I'm happy for him and the Pacers. It was also the right decision. Domantas Sabonis is the focal point of a top 5 offense and arguably a top 5 center in the league right now.
Bad teams stockpile talent. Good teams know that fit is everything. Fox, Huerter, Murray, Barnes, and Sabonis is a unit that makes sense not just on paper but in real NBA games. They have a very good coach who holds them accountable and has them in a position to win most games both at home and on the road. This roster is the culmination of Monte McNair's efforts since he took the job and the Kings are the huge success story of the season so far. Treadmilling? Seriously? That would be laughably inaccurate from a casual NBA fan but from a dedicated basketball nut and Kings fan like yourself it's something else. I'm not mad about it, but it does feel like you're bending over backwards to find something to complain about. I'm wondering how long it will take for you to give up your anti-Monte crusade, admit defeat, and join the rest of us in celebrating a good thing.
Setting aside the fact that trolls are going to troll, by virtue of the moves they've made and their associated improvement in the standings, the Kings literally can't be on a treadmill. The term denotes running in place with nowhere to go and no room to improve. Yet the team has obviously improved dramatically from the last few seasons on both sides of the ball. Anyone making any kind of "treadmill" argument is either not paying very close attention or they're trying to save face or they're outright trolling.
Now, if the Kings ultimately finish in the vicinity of 30 wins again, sure, they're on a treadmill. Or if they finish as a sixth seed for the next three or four seasons, sure, they'd be on a treadmill then, as well. But the former scenario, while not impossible, is growing increasingly unlikely and the latter scenario is too far down the road for anyone to predict with reasonable accuracy.
Now, if the Kings ultimately finish in the vicinity of 30 wins again, sure, they're on a treadmill. Or if they finish as a sixth seed for the next three or four seasons, sure, they'd be on a treadmill then, as well. But the former scenario, while not impossible, is growing increasingly unlikely and the latter scenario is too far down the road for anyone to predict with reasonable accuracy.
Really? Wild.
94-95 and 95-96 were fun years. My junior and senior years at BU. I remember watching Kings on Spring Break in the Bahamas as they just fell out in 95, and then the first playoff appearance since Year 1 in 96, but against a VERY good Sonics club. Those were the first two years I was able to get Kings games out of market. It was pretty special.
It's funny going back to Y1, how disappointing getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs was but it didn't feel like it was as good as it was going to get for 15 years
and then when the glory years ended this was unimaginable.
94-95 and 95-96 were fun years. My junior and senior years at BU. I remember watching Kings on Spring Break in the Bahamas as they just fell out in 95, and then the first playoff appearance since Year 1 in 96, but against a VERY good Sonics club. Those were the first two years I was able to get Kings games out of market. It was pretty special.
It's funny going back to Y1, how disappointing getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs was but it didn't feel like it was as good as it was going to get for 15 years
and then when the glory years ended this was unimaginable.
I have a minor quibble with reducing Brown to journeyman but yeah.
I think it's clear Brown is different than say Nate McMillan, Dave Joerger, Frank Vogel, Stan Von Jeremy, Rick Carlisle, or any of the hucksters Kings have brought in under the guise of experience. Larry Brown probably coached as many gigs as all those guys combined but wasn't reduced to "journeyman". I think Brown deserves some measure of respect as he really only had two jobs he wasn't set up to fail - the first Cavs run and the recent run with the Dubs.
I think it's clear Brown is different than say Nate McMillan, Dave Joerger, Frank Vogel, Stan Von Jeremy, Rick Carlisle, or any of the hucksters Kings have brought in under the guise of experience. Larry Brown probably coached as many gigs as all those guys combined but wasn't reduced to "journeyman". I think Brown deserves some measure of respect as he really only had two jobs he wasn't set up to fail - the first Cavs run and the recent run with the Dubs.
I totally agree. My general observation of the NBA (over a lot of years) is that there are a lot of strategies to build a championship caliber team, but they all tend to rely on a great deal of luck to actually work. The Warriors never tanked. They've done a lot of smart things over the years, but their success is highly reliant on luck to be able to establish their core. Tanking seems like the smart thing to do (and from an analytical/probability of success perspective probably is). It can get you a good war chest of assets, establish a young team of the future, a collection of individually great pieces, but it often comes down to lucky breaks one way or the other that decides the winners and losers in the NBA.
At this point in my life, I'd rather watch a fun/competent/exciting winning team that some would say has a ceiling below championship, and hope we luck into some good fortune that pushes us above the limit.
At this point in my life, I'd rather watch a fun/competent/exciting winning team that some would say has a ceiling below championship, and hope we luck into some good fortune that pushes us above the limit.
The thing with tanking is
a) horribly unfair to anyone who owns season tickets unless it's a one and done tank, usually these are due to injuries - like Golden State, or to go 25 years to the best single season tank of all time, D-Rob and the Spurs.
b) forces fans to root against their team when it's being done openly
c) results are inconclusive - thus far, we have the original Sonics to OKC that netted KD, Russ and Harden plus some quality role guys that blew up just as everyone was ready to get paid. And Philly that are stuck as 2nd round casualties, the same fate they were in when they took 5 years off of competing seriously. I think OKC is most likely to succeed out of OKC/HOU/DET, with Utah second, if they are indeed in a tank and not a quicksy rebuild (if they are - more power to them).
d) in the same time all that happened, so did the Warriors. The Blazers have rebuilt on the fly and made a WC finals - even if a fluke. Celtics never went into a full tank. Arguably MIL was a "treadmill" team like Sac that got Giannis in the middle of the first round. Raptors have never gone full tank. The other teams that have won since Boston's big 3 had LeBron, were the Spurs, and Mavericks finally got one after years of treadmilling with Dirk.
What has killed the Kings for the entirety of the drought is lack of direction. Vegas was the first big bubble market to tank in the 00s and the Maloofs were overleveraged with the Palms properties (commercial/casino and high end condo tower, which if you know real estate crashes ...) so the Maloofs began looking for ways to leverage $$$ out of the Kings rather than build a winner. At the same time, they thought they knew everything because it was always easy for them. By the end it feels like they were both Major Leaguing the team to get out of Sac and throwing both fingers to the town on the way out, so the product was abysmal. Enter Vivek, best of intentions, Warriors on his brain, but he hires the coach first and a terrible GM second. This results in the few bright spots of the Maloofs sunset cratering - losing Tyreke and IT2.0 for practically nothing, and Cousins champing at the bit to experience winning leading to many on court meltdowns. They fire the best coach they had had since Adelman in the spat and the fans are in open revolt against the FO, so Vivek thinks he can win fans over with fan favorite Vlade. A horrible move though the heart was in the right place. Vlade immediately mortgages our future with a bad trade trying to clear room for FA signings, two absolute rookie moves that insure Cousins will be out the door in short order. Lucks into a half decent coach after the whole league turns us down, but he comes with a bad track record with FO cooperation. Lucks into Fox while showing himself to be downright awful with every other draft pick thrown his way. Lucks into the #2 pick in the draft and blows it. Fires the insubordinate coach (possibly correctly) and then instead of doing a thorough coaching search, hires the loser he was obsessed with in the last search, who turns out to be an even bigger loser than anyone could ever predict.
At the point Monte is hired, Vivek has owned the team ~7 years, and made two bad hires that crippled an already crippled team. Had it not been for 7 previous years of gross mismanagement by the Maloofs he'd probably have weathered the storm much better and everything would be chalked up to growing pains, but in the climate he entered he was a moron. Monte is hired, after what was a very thorough GM hiring process - going over many message board favorites who at this point have not acquitted themselves as well as Monte the past 3 years - and we're looking at competing for the 5/6 seed or better with one of the best offenses in the league (daresay elite) and a steadily improving defense. All of that without intentionally losing games. It was a brilliant GM hire and a brilliant coach hire (both maligned by the know it alls), and competent drafting and making trades that incrementally improve the team in a consistent direction and what is basically a 2.5 year rebuild. But again, because of 14 horrid years that preceded it, it won't be viewed in quite that light.
a) horribly unfair to anyone who owns season tickets unless it's a one and done tank, usually these are due to injuries - like Golden State, or to go 25 years to the best single season tank of all time, D-Rob and the Spurs.
b) forces fans to root against their team when it's being done openly
c) results are inconclusive - thus far, we have the original Sonics to OKC that netted KD, Russ and Harden plus some quality role guys that blew up just as everyone was ready to get paid. And Philly that are stuck as 2nd round casualties, the same fate they were in when they took 5 years off of competing seriously. I think OKC is most likely to succeed out of OKC/HOU/DET, with Utah second, if they are indeed in a tank and not a quicksy rebuild (if they are - more power to them).
d) in the same time all that happened, so did the Warriors. The Blazers have rebuilt on the fly and made a WC finals - even if a fluke. Celtics never went into a full tank. Arguably MIL was a "treadmill" team like Sac that got Giannis in the middle of the first round. Raptors have never gone full tank. The other teams that have won since Boston's big 3 had LeBron, were the Spurs, and Mavericks finally got one after years of treadmilling with Dirk.
What has killed the Kings for the entirety of the drought is lack of direction. Vegas was the first big bubble market to tank in the 00s and the Maloofs were overleveraged with the Palms properties (commercial/casino and high end condo tower, which if you know real estate crashes ...) so the Maloofs began looking for ways to leverage $$$ out of the Kings rather than build a winner. At the same time, they thought they knew everything because it was always easy for them. By the end it feels like they were both Major Leaguing the team to get out of Sac and throwing both fingers to the town on the way out, so the product was abysmal. Enter Vivek, best of intentions, Warriors on his brain, but he hires the coach first and a terrible GM second. This results in the few bright spots of the Maloofs sunset cratering - losing Tyreke and IT2.0 for practically nothing, and Cousins champing at the bit to experience winning leading to many on court meltdowns. They fire the best coach they had had since Adelman in the spat and the fans are in open revolt against the FO, so Vivek thinks he can win fans over with fan favorite Vlade. A horrible move though the heart was in the right place. Vlade immediately mortgages our future with a bad trade trying to clear room for FA signings, two absolute rookie moves that insure Cousins will be out the door in short order. Lucks into a half decent coach after the whole league turns us down, but he comes with a bad track record with FO cooperation. Lucks into Fox while showing himself to be downright awful with every other draft pick thrown his way. Lucks into the #2 pick in the draft and blows it. Fires the insubordinate coach (possibly correctly) and then instead of doing a thorough coaching search, hires the loser he was obsessed with in the last search, who turns out to be an even bigger loser than anyone could ever predict.
At the point Monte is hired, Vivek has owned the team ~7 years, and made two bad hires that crippled an already crippled team. Had it not been for 7 previous years of gross mismanagement by the Maloofs he'd probably have weathered the storm much better and everything would be chalked up to growing pains, but in the climate he entered he was a moron. Monte is hired, after what was a very thorough GM hiring process - going over many message board favorites who at this point have not acquitted themselves as well as Monte the past 3 years - and we're looking at competing for the 5/6 seed or better with one of the best offenses in the league (daresay elite) and a steadily improving defense. All of that without intentionally losing games. It was a brilliant GM hire and a brilliant coach hire (both maligned by the know it alls), and competent drafting and making trades that incrementally improve the team in a consistent direction and what is basically a 2.5 year rebuild. But again, because of 14 horrid years that preceded it, it won't be viewed in quite that light.
I mean, the Warriors did tank but they only did so after having won three rings and after losing KD to free agency and Klay to multiple catastrophic leg injuries. They promptly ended up with the second overall pick but wasted it on Wiseman instead of, well, pretty much anyone else. They then retooled on the fly, restocked their bench with a bunch of vets, traded for a reclamation project that totally paid off in Wiggins, and got back to the championship pretty much entirely no thanks to their two years of straight-up tanking.