We are now 25 games into the season, and we know much about what this team is and what it isn't. I predicted that the Kings would go 7-18 in their first 25, and this miserable squad managed to undershoot my prediction by a game!
So I wanted to update this thread and see where things stand as we approach December 15th. I'm specifically going to be looking at Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Net Rating, first in the overall, and then for specific lineups.
For those who don't know how to interpret these stats, here's the simple bottom line: the higher the OFFRTG, the better; the lower the DEFRTG, the better; NETRTG is the difference between the two, and you want it to be in the positive; the higher the NETRTG, the better, and it's generally a strong indicator of a team's (or a lineup's) overall impact.
If you sort for NETRTG, the best teams have an overwhelmingly positive NETRTG, while the worst teams have an overwhelmingly negative NETRTG. And when parsing lineup data, NETRTG tends to suggest which lineups a head coach should be getting on the floor as much as possible.
My last update was a month ago, on 11/13/25, and here's where the Kings were at:
3-9 record (13th in conference)
110.3 Offensive Rating (25th in NBA)
120.6 Defensive Rating (27th in NBA)
-10.3 Net Rating (26th in NBA)
As of 12/12/25, here is where the Kings are at:
6-19 record (13th in conference)
108.7 Offensive Rating (27th in NBA)
119.7 Defensive Rating (26th in NBA)
-11.0 Net Rating (29th in NBA)
**So the defense has improved ever-so-slightly with Keegan back in the lineup, but the offense has continued its downward trend, which has ultimately resulted in the second-worst net rating in the entire NBA (behind only the hapless Washington Wizards).
The lineup data remains a bit frustrating to parse because of injuries to key starters across the first 25 games, which has depressed the number of long-term samples. This creates a lot of opportunity for noise in the data, but let's break down the Kings' ten most-used lineups (minimum 15 minutes played) and see what we find:
1. Schroder, Westbrook, DeRozan, LaVine, Sabonis (89 mins)
101.5 Offensive Rating
119.4 Defensive Rating
-17.9 Net Rating
2. Westbrook, DeRozan, LaVine, Murray, Raynaud (73 mins)
124.2 Offensive Rating
115.8 Defensive Rating
8.4 Net Rating
3. Westbrook, DeRozan, LaVine, Murray, Eubanks (57 mins)
87.7 Offensive Rating
116.5 Defensive Rating
-28.8 Net Rating
4. Schroder, Ellis, DeRozan, LaVine, Sabonis (33 mins)
91.5 Offensive Rating
133.8 Defensive Rating
-42.2 Net Rating
5. Westbrook, DeRozan, LaVine, Murray, Achiuwa (30 mins)
132.2 Offensive Rating
103.5 Defensive Rating
28.7 Net Rating
6. Schroder, DeRozan, LaVine, Achiuwa, Sabonis (24 mins)
108.7 Offensive Rating
136.2 Defensive Rating
-27.5 Net Rating
7. Westbrook, Ellis, DeRozan, LaVine, Sabonis (22 mins)
113.0 Offensive Rating
128.3 Defensive Rating
-15.2 Net Rating
8. Monk, Carter, Ellis, Clifford, Raynaud (18 mins)
93.0 Offensive Rating
102.3 Defensive Rating
-9.2 Net Rating
9. Schroder, Westbrook, DeRozan, Clifford, Eubanks (16 mins)
111.8 Offensive Rating
117.6 Defensive Rating
-5.9 Defensive Rating
10. Westbrook, LaVine, DeRozan, Achiuwa, Eubanks (15 mins)
106.3 Offensive Rating
136.4 Defensive Rating
-30.1 Net Rating
Like I said, there's a lot of potential for a bit of noise in the data when you're looking at lineup sample sizes below 100 minutes played, and there's potential for a ton of noise when your sample size is as low as 15 minutes played, but there's some noteworthy data points here, I think.
First, Drew Eubanks should just not be playing. At all. Maxime Raynaud should get all of his minutes. Next, Schroder is about as washed as an NBA player as many of us assumed. No matter what Scott Perry's short-term and long-term goals are, that was a really crummy signing. Furthermore, Keon Ellis and Devin Carter should be getting more opportunities to play together, especially if they get that opportunity alongside Nique Clifford. The one lineup they featured in that has played more than 15 minutes produced the best defensive rating of the bunch.
Elsewhere, almost all of the lineups Domantas Sabonis has appeared in have produced the worst net ratings. This seems to affirm the eye test that 1) he hasn't looked at all healthy even when he's played, and 2) if you're not leveraging him as an offensive hub, he just can't do much out there for you, especially when surrounded by guys who dribble the air out of the ball. And there's probably a few things we could say about the Westbrook/DeRozan/LaVine trio, but interestingly, when paired with Murray/Raynaud or Murray/Achiuwa, they produced the only positive net ratings of these lineup configurations. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that, other than to say that Keegan Murray is pretty important to this team's long-term outlook.
Now, it's true enough that the Kings have played an obscene number of games against the best of the Western Conference, and that's going to be partially responsible for whatever noise exists in these datasets. But regardless of quality of competition, what I'm seeing in the data suggests an ill-fitting roster with defensive and offensive incompetencies that would be challenging to overcome for even a fully healthy version of this Kings squad. And that's before any possible roster changes. December 15th is right around the corner, and this, of course, is the date that trade season officially kicks off, as players who signed deals in the off-season largely become eligible for trade.
It seems that a proper rebuild is coming down the pike, though it remains unclear how active the Kings will be leading up to the trade deadline on February 5th. I imagine Scott Perry will be opportunistic, making moves if they secure the Kings future draft capital, or if they net the Kings an intriguing young player at very little cost. As much as I want the Kings to part with their aging vets no matter the return, it is not my expectation that the front office is just looking to cut bait. So we'll see who's still with us in a couple of months, and hopefully the result is more time on the court for younger talent.
