Rebuilding -- Defense First

[hrdboild]

Since I haven't really seen any re-building plans yet which move us in the direction of being a great defensive team (which is supposedly the dictate from the Brothers Maloof) I thought I'd give it a try myself. The idea here is to bring in players to anchor the defense at each respective position. I'm also acknowledging here that we're not going to fix everything in one offseason. We've got to rebuild this thing from the ground up and that's going to take several years. So with that in mind, here's my plan for this summer...

1. Kings trade Mike Bibby (13.5 mill) to Boston for Rajon Rondo (1.4 mill) and Wally Sczerbiak (12 mill).

Rondo is going to be the best defensive PG in the league in 3 years. Sczerbiak is a throw in with 2 more years on his huge contract, which is just bad enough to make this deal work I think. Time to swap our scoring PG for a pass-first PG that plays defense and let Boston try to contend with another borderline All-Star to add to their lineup along with the 5th overall pick.

2. Re-sign Justin Williams to league minimum two year deal.

He's the defensive role-player we need at the PF position. Two years is relatively low risk with the chance of becoming a bargain. Give him starters minutes right away if he shows he can play defense and keep his head in the game and see how he developes. His future is probably as a defensive specialist off the bench, but until we get our new starting PF we might as well accelerate his development.

3. Kings trade John Salmons (4.7 mill) and Francisco Garcia (1.2 mill) to Portland for Joel Pryzbilla (5.8 mill).

Portland is going to have Oden, Aldridge, and Randolph vying for minutes next year and Pryzbilla looks to get squeezed out. He couldn't even stay on the floor this year without Oden so I think that makes him expendable. Could be the Yin to Brad's Yang for the next 3 or 4 years. Salmons and Garcia are tough to give up, but Portland is thin at the swing positions and you have to give something to get something in return.

4. Kings trade Shareef (5.8 mill) to Memphis for Stromille Swift (5.8 mill)

Swift couldn't wait to get out of there and now he's back -- it's not likely he picks up his player option to stick around even longer and not play, so he's basically an expiring contract for them. Shareef doesn't have a lot of value, but he could be a solid backup for them for a few years with a decent contract. At the least maybe the nostalgia would bring a few more fans to the arena for a team that's desperate to sell tickets. Shareef doesn't fit well with us and Swift's contract expires sooner.

If Memphis declines, we would look for other suitors for Shareef. To Houston for Juwon Howard? To New York for Malik Rose? Whoever we get in return doesn't need to play much, they just need to expire sooner. This is purely a cost cutting/roster-spot saving move.

Here's the new lineup for 2007/2008:

PG Rondo, Douby
SG Martin, Sczerbiak
SF Artest
PF Williams, Swift, Thomas
C Miller, Pryzbilla

This leaves us underhanded at the wing positions, but with the #10 Pick we're most likely going to be adding a talented young SF like Jeff Green, Al Thornton, Julian Wright, or Thaddeus Young. I'd like to get another first round pick somehow, but there aren't any valuable assets left to trade.

After the draft we can choose whether or not to spend the MLE to fill out the roster where needed. A backup PG would be one option, though Price would be invited to compete for a backup point guard spot in camp. If Douby can step up this year, it might not be an issue. Another wing player would also be an option, at either SG or SF. This roster is not looking to be competitive anyway, so if no one's available that we would want in our longterm plans, than don't spend the MLE.

So where does this leave us after the summer? Rondo and Martin would hopefully be our starting backcourt for a long time. If Martin can take advantage of his speed and length to shore up his perimeter defense we'd have a more than adequate defensive backcourt. The knock on Rondo is that he can't shoot, but he was a bigtime scorer in High School regardless so that shouldn't be a problem. Add in Artest and another SF who can play defense (either from the draft or free agency) and we'd have probably the league best perimeter defense for years to come. Artest and Martin will be looking for new contracts soon but everyone else would be fairly inexpensive at least for the next 3 years. Szcerbiak is an afterthought who could contribute as a sixth man if he manages to stay healthy. (Not likely). His 13 million dollar expiring contract would be nice in two years, but it's going to be eaten up by extensions for Martin and Artest anyway.

In the frontcourt we improve defensively already by moving Justin Williams into the starting lineup. Justin is going to alter shots on the defensive end and go for rebounds on the offensive end, both of which are badly needed. Miller is obviously not your ideal defensive cornerstone at the center position, but he's going to add a lot on the offensive end when healthy to make up for it. We've got three years to somehow acquire a franchise center in the meantime. We won't be totally hopeless near the basket though with Pryzbilla subbing in for 20-25 minutes per game. Kenny Thomas isn't going anywhere after the season he had. He could become a decent rotation player though if he could be made to see his true calling as a bench player once and for all. Easier said than done. As long as he's not taking minutes away from the promising youngster, than I'll be happy. Shareef, as the more moveable piece, had to go to make room. Swift has, by all accounts, the basketball IQ of a pile of bricks so I wouldn't be counting on much from him. If he can contribute with a crowd-pleasing dunk or block from time to time that would at least be something, and he's only around for 2 years at the most unless he somehow manages to resurrect his career. I'd give him about as good a chance as Kenny Thomas.

So our frontcourt is still a mess, but we've at least given ourselves the chance of something happening there. Can Brad Miller be more than just a shell of his former self? Can Justin Williams continue to exceed expectations? Can Kenny Thomas become a double-double contributer again? (and for god's sake man, stop turning the ball over!) Can Stromille Swift be anything more than a bust? Can Joel Pryzbilla stay healthy enough to anchor our interior defense? Lots of question marks there, but if we hit the jackpot on one or two of them we'd be in much better shape than we are now. And if not, we've got several years of lottery picks ahead of us to rebuild that frontcourt properly. And the best part is that none of these contracts last more than 3 years (Pryzbilla has a fourth year player option) so we can evaluate where we're at in the next couple years and choose which players to keep around longterm.

 

[RaY Z]

the thing i like bout this is that these seem like all decent and plausible deals...

and i dont think that kenny and brad could be traded anyway as much as we all want them to be...

rondo is impressive too... soo much hustle in his game... needs to improve his outside shot, but he does make an impact in the game in other areas...

with this deal, with joel on our roster, it allows to draft the BPA which will most likely be a wing...

 

[thatguy]

I know this is about defense but, uh, teams should be able to score too. You know, if they are looking to win games. What you've put together there doesn't look like it could do that...

 

[Gary]

I know this is about defense but, uh, teams should be able to score too. You know, if they are looking to win games. What you've put together there doesn't look like it could do that...

I agree.. This team will have Artest shooting about 30 times and making 12 shots a game scoring about 33 pts on 30 shots which kinda sucks. As a team we would average 80 or so points per game, and giving up about 85.

I would rather keep Garcia at SF though. He is a scorer, and can play PG/SG/SF minutes. Artest cannot. This would help with your "wing player" problems.

I am all for giving Williams some starter minutes too. He did well last year when given a chance, but I woudl still rather him come off the bench. Give the guy like 20 minutes and make him a 7th-8th man. If we keep Artest than Garcia would be the logical decision to be our 6th man because of how many positions he can play.

Basically though we still have some of the same problems. Our PF spot is weak, and instead of benig full at the 1/2/3 we have a somewhat week rotation giving up Salmons, and Garcia.

I would rather trade up and get Noah this year to play PF, give Williams some time of the Bench at 4/5. SAR would get some of the minutes when we need a low post scorer. Move Artest and Bibby. Get a high teens pick and draft Acie Law. Get a mid 20 pick (w/ the Artest/Bibby trades) and get a big man project that will not need to see the floor for a year or two.

 

[hrdboild]

Well, just to point out a few things...

1. This is not a 1 year re-building plan. Rather it's phase one in what will probably be a 5 year plan. It makes no sense to keep Bibby if we're going to be rebuilding, he's reached his peak already and his defense is terrible. So why not start over with a defensive game-changer at the PG spot? This is the last season Rondo's potentially available and only because Pierce wants to win now. (Of course we could have just drafted him in the first place, but whatever.) Pryzbilla is another game changing defensive player and he's only potentially available because he's coming off a terrible year and Portland just scored the center of the decade in Greg Oden after having traded up to draft another center last year (Aldridge). These deals are only available right now (if they're available at all) but I think they'd be a good start towards getting us where we want to be. We're not a winner yet in 2007/2008, but add in a high draft pick next year and we could be getting there.

2. Martin and Artest are both 20ppg scorers and led our team this year. Martin scores more points with less shots than any player in the league (thanks to all those free throws). Artest has been a very efficient scorer in the past and even some of the time this year, I would think he can return to that. Also, I don't think it's ever wise to have a PG carrying your scoring load anyway. Rondo can score 15ppg which is what we were getting from Bibby during our championship runs, and he's also going to get you a lot of assists and more rebounds than any other PG other than Jason Kidd. Justin Williams actually scored a lot in the minutes he got so he's less of a liability there than you might think. Sczerbiak and Douby both project as excellent shooters off the bench. Remember you can also factor in a SF from the draft who will be getting enough minutes to be a factor as well. With league-best defense I think 100ppg is enough to win, and this lineup can get you that. If guys don't develop or can't stay healthy, no big. You just get another lottery pick and almost everyone will come off the cap in another year so your worst-case scenario is not all that bad.

3. Obviously the PF spot is still a work in progress, I don't think Kenny Thomas or Stromille Swift are in the longterm plans. Maybe not even Justin Williams, but this maximizes what we have right now. Trading up to draft a stud PF sounds nice in theory, but who are we going to offer that has any value? Drafting a big man project is a fine idea alright, but very risky and hardly something you can plan a team around. If you do that you end up back at square one when the next Kwame Brown or whoever fails to live up to his "potential". I don't understand why we supposedly need to solve this frontcourt problem right now. Building a team takes patience. You can't keep drafting center projects every year like Seattle has done or giving huge deals to average players like Philadelphia has done. Bringing in Pryzbilla and starting Williams buys us some time. Dumping Reef's 3 year deal saves us some cap space. Playing Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas allows us to hopefully recoup some of our investment. These are not quick fixes, but they keep us competitive. Who knows who will be available in another year. Bringing in Chris Webber was a huge stroke of luck and good timing, but you can at least maximize your opportunities by controlling the cap and increasing the value of what you've got so that when those deals come around you'll be ready to make a move. Realistically, I think that's all we can do about our frontcourt problems this offseason.

4. Can someone explain to me what the great virtue is in having a SF who can play PG? Flexibility is a good thing in abstract, but what does it actually contribute towards building a team? If you want to win regularly you need to go into every single game with a plan for how you are going to win. San Antonio has that. Phoenix has that. Detroit had that. Having a lot of interchangable pieces and possible lineups is great, but you need a solid gameplan most of all to win. If you want your SF controlling the ball so your PG can play off the ball and shoot, that's fine. That could work. But only if your PG and SF can also defend their respective positions. I've heard a lot about the "flexibility" of Salmons and Garcia and Douby but has anyone actually explained how precisely those players are going to fit together into a winning team? I have yet to see it. At some point you've got to stop looking for "potential" and start looking at what you've actually got.

I understand that I might differ in my strategy than other people do, so there's going to be some disagreement. My basic idea is this: Great team defense is built around great individual defensive players. Rebuilding the right way means snapping up the key players we can get now and then managing the salary cap so that we're ready to bring in other key players later. Trading everyone for draft picks is not rebuilding, it's not even a plan at all. It's desperation. Hoping Garnett falls into our lap isn't a plan either. But if we can get first team defenders at two positions and above average defenders at two more, we're on our way towards being a great defensive team. Lucky for us we already have a great scorer at the SG spot and our first team all-defense SF is also a star offensive player as well. So we're not that bad off after all. If we can solve just one of these problems (PG, PF, C) in one off-season, we'd be making steady progress.

 

[VF21]

PG Rondo, Douby
SG Martin, Sczerbiak
SF Artest
PF Williams, Swift, Thomas
C Miller, Pryzbilla

If you're seriously thinking about starting Justin and having KT as the third option, you might as well pack the dynamite around Arco yourself and not have to wait for the inevitable explosion.

I don't agree with your assessment of Rondo and the idea of Rondo/Douby sharing PG honors is kinda scary. You gave away both our more viable alternatives - Salmon and Garcia - for someone whose best games were against us.

We have no back-up for Artest because, once again, you traded the swingmen.

Good teams need balance. That's what made the classic Kings so increidble. The roster you've proposed just doesn't have any balance - and there isn't a leader - other than Artest (and that's a whole other discussion) - in the bunch.

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah but if you read the posts you'll see that isn't the final roster. Artest does have a backup, I just don't know who it's going to be so I didn't fill it in. Douby won't be the only backup PG either.

Can you be more specific about how you disagree with my Rondo assesment? I admit I probably rate him more highly than he deserves. I was high on him before the draft, hoping we'd pick him and his first year has only reinforced my opinion of him. Look what he did last year in limited minutes: 2006/2007 Gamelog. Those numbers are incredible from a rookie. Actually they're very good from any PG, rookie or not. Yeah he was on a terrible team, but still. I think he's better than Bibby right now if you factor in offense and defense as well as a lot younger and cheaper and going to stick around for awhile if we get him. In fact, I'd be willing to throw in a lotto protected first round pick just to make that deal happen. He can't shoot the three, but that's not a fatal flaw. This plan really only makes sense if you're weighting defense more heavily than offense and you think, as I do, that Rondo is clearly the best defensive PG in the league. I think the evidence speaks for itself, but maybe you have reason to believe otherwise?

I don't have a solution to the Kenny Thomas explosion factor, but I can't find a realistic trade anywhere and I'm not going to start him just because he's going to pout if we don't. If he can't behave like an adult, than he's just going to have to be cut from the team. But I'm at least going to give him a chance and if he does screw that up, he's gone. Simple as that.

Salmons and Garcia are two of our best players, but they're both backups at best. That's it. These are the guys you plug in with your MLE the season before you contend for a championship, they're not building blocks. Keeping Salmons around actually limits our flexibility to build the roster and cuts into capspace which would be better spent on reworking our starting five. If they can get us a quality defensive big man who's young and cheap, that's a fair trade I think. Whoever we get with the 10th pick is going to be better than Garcia and Salmons was signed with the MLE. They're both easily replaceable.

I see your point about the lack of leadership, but I just don't think it's a wise business move to ever put all your eggs in one basket. Well, okay unless that basket happens to be named Lebron James but I don't see anyone coming along to offer us that opportunity. I don't know how you're expecting us to get leadership, but I suspect it will develop on it's own once you have a team of players that fit together and have a solid gameplan that they stick to. You can't trade for leadership, but if you put together the right list of guys, it should come on it's own. This probably isn't the right list of guys yet, but I think at least the 1, 2, and 3 spots are right and that's pretty good for now.

I don't see where your lack of balance criticism comes from. You've got defense at the 1, offense at the 2, defense and offense at the 3, defense at the 4, and offense at the 5. Rondo can't shoot the 3, but he's a great penetrator and passer. Martin, Douby, and Sczerbiak are all shooters. The frontcourt isn't balanced all that well but I think I've explained in great detail already why that's the case. Unlike a lot of other proposed rebuilding plans, this plan has as much to do with managing the salary cap responsibly as it does with building the "ideal" team. Anyway Miller should be a 15ppg scorer again now that he's a part of the offense again and Williams should at least get in double figures on put backs and layups along with his rebounding and shotblocking. Pryzbilla is also a monster rebounder. I think overall that's a pretty balanced roster, though slanted more toward the defensive end. The offense is really only going to work if you get a coach in there with a good plan, but that's always going to be the case anyway. With these players, at least, the defense should take care of itself.

And lastly, I still think Artest has far too much value on the basketball court to give up on him yet. He's exactly the type of star we need to build a defensive team -- a DPOY winner who's also a great offensive player and really wants to win. Anyway, I can see you disagree which is fine. But if you don't mind indulging a fellow Kings fan in some off-season speculation, would you mind explaining a little more why you don't think Rondo is the answer for us? Because I think it's a perfect fit and I'm almost mad at Petrie already for not reading my mind and making it happen.