Race to the Bottom thread
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
The most successful example of this in recent history was Boston trading the #1 pick to Philadelphia in 2017 so they could pick Jayson Tatum at #3. The Sixers took Markelle Fultz with that #1 pick and he turned out to be one of the biggest first overall pick busts in league history. The Lakers took Lonzo Ball at #2 who was at least a pretty solid starter until that never-ending string of injuries ruined his career. Point being -- it's not the worst idea to trade down a couple spots if you know who the other teams are going to pick and the guy you want will still be there on the board. But it's risky considering you will be forever blamed if it doesn't work out (Atlanta trading down two spots to take Trae Young at #5 instead of drafting Luka at #3 in 2018, for example).
Both teams should just shoot full court shots the entire time. First ever 3-0 win
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
The game would take like fifteen hours because they’d be taking shots with 23 seconds left on the clock and the poor ball boys would have to keep running into the stands to get the ball. I’m down.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I like that Lauri is out for "rest" reasons. I thought the NBA banned load management, also know as rest.
If 4 players go 1-5 are guaranteed superstars with 1 megastar and the fifth is a bust who will be picked in the top 3, I want to pick 4th.
If 4 players go 1-5 are guaranteed superstars with 1 megastar and the fifth is a bust who will be picked in the top 3, I want to pick 4th.
Other than Lebron James, I don't think there has been a guaranteed superstar in any draft this century. And I don't see one in this draft either -- though quite a few of these guys do look really good.
Heck, look at how the 2019 draft has turned out:
Of the top ten picks that year, seven of them were either just traded at the deadline this year or were on the trade block. And of the remaining three players, two of them are out of the league already. There was quite a bit of hype about those top players too. You just never know.
Insomniacal Fan
Starter
You wouldn't put Wemby in that bucket?, Popovich tried to put off retirement to get the chance to coach him.
I think I'd have tagged Durant as a guaranteed superstar in 2007, but perhaps he's a tier below.
If Durant was guaranteed I think he'd have gone over Oden. Wemby had to be though?
I was thinking of this draft even though Ayton has been a bit of a bust too. Ayton, Bagley, Luka/Trae, JJJ. We got the worst of the next 3 picks and the biggest bust of the top 5. People were also quite high on Bamba.
King-Da-Yah
Starter
Cant believe they are gonna pull this out they were up 3 with 12 seconds left
Just out of curiosity, what players do you consider to have been guaranteed superstars? If LeBron is the only one this century, then does anybody other than Shaq in my lifetime qualify? Remember, Jordan went 3rd overall, if he was a guaranteed superstar certainly he would have gone second if not first (and then, only if Olajuwon also counts as a guaranteed superstar).
What about injuries? Obviously if LeBron got hurt early in his career he might never have reached his level. So what about Oden? Or Yao? Or for that matter, Zion?
For what it's worth, it's hard to look at one draft (say the 2019 draft you reference) in hindsight and another draft that hasn't happened yet and compare them reasonably, but of the top ten in 2019, I can't say I was that high on the top ten. I liked all three Duke players (Barrett and Reddish would probably have been #2 and #3 for me), kinda liked White, cautiously liked Rui (I recognized that he was a 4, while everybody who was really pooh-poohing him in the mocks was miscasting him as a 3), disliked Hunter and Culver as high lotto prospects, didn't have a great feel for either Morant or Garland, was skeptical of Hayes but at least liked the size there.
But trying to get my thoughts now and my thoughts then in sync, I'd have taken all of the top four in this draft over Barrett at #2 in a combined draft. Might be able to convince myself on Wagler, too, but probably not Flemings (with hindsight I take both of those guys over R.J., just saying at the time I liked him more than I like Flemings now).
Too soon to say with Wemby. Right now it looks like he might struggle to stay healthy, which is often the case for players his size. He only played 46 games last season and he's on pace to play about 60 this season. I didn't mention it because it's already been beat to death here, but Luka came the closest for me to being a sure-thing prospect since Lebron. But he also had a lot of doubters and was taken 3rd overall.
Insomniacal Fan
Starter
I don't think anybody had any cause to question that Oden himself was a guaranteed superstar; 2007 was still in the golden age of big men, and he hadn't had any surgeries until after the draft.
Durant was the most impressive college player I've ever seen.
I can say for sure that they polled the fans in Portland and Oden won. So this one is tricky. They both seemed can't miss. And when Oden played with Roy and LMA they were fantastic. But I still wonder how we decide "guaranteed".
To me, Shaq, Duncan, LeBron and Wemby are in a class of their own.
I think players that I was fortunate enough to see play in their primes live but not really aware of before the NBA or they established themselves, Magic, Bird, Ewing, Hakeem probably get this honor as well.
Pacers managed to win in OT.
Their best player, JJJ, still looks up
LoungeLizard
Starter
NBA action. It’s Fantastic!
I didn't follow the draft or college basketball before 2001 so I can't talk definitively about the perception of any of that era's superstars pre-draft. I was certainly aware of who Shaq was when he was a rookie and I would have been 9 at the time and was not following the NBA or college ball at all so for sure he would have counted. He was a cultural phenomenon from the beginning. You tell me -- do David Robinson or Tim Duncan belong in this conversation? Allen Iverson? I only discovered them after they were established.
If a player is taken first overall and is on a trajectory to be a superstar when injuries derail their career definitively, that should warrant exceptional status. Greg Oden for all of the hype (and I was a big believer) never really had a chance to establish himself in the NBA and the way his career played out has been a cautionary tale that hung over every draft since. The story about how he basically became an alcoholic because of the weight of expectation, the Kevin Durant comparison, the specter of Portland reliving the Bowie over Jordan scenario through him, and the chronic injuries taking years to recover from is incredibly sad.
The other name that immediately comes to mind as a potential injury exception is Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway -- he was first team All NBA in both his second and third season and finished 3rd in MVP voting behind MJ and David Robinson that third year before his knees gave out and he was never the same. He was not taken first overall but might sortof qualify on a technicality anyway since the team that drafted him at #3 traded down from the #1 pick to do it because Shaq said "I'm your franchise player and I want you to pick this kid".
Looking back over all of the #1 picks from 2000 to now, the only ones where I both (1) Fully agreed with the consensus #1 pick and (2) Believed that player was going to be a superstar were 2007 (Greg Oden) and 2010 (John Wall). That's it. John Wall had one (3rd Team) All NBA selection in his career and didn't sniff an MVP award and Oden as we know never got healthy enough to get through a full season. I came close to counting DeAndre Ayton but he already had some laziness questions back then and I was on team Luka all the way, who would have counted if he were the consensus #1 pick that year. I didn't list Wemby here because I didn't personally see multiple MVP awards in his future -- and I still don't know if he'll ever be able to live up to the insanely high expectations. He's got all the tools but he's still learning how to use them.
2019 is a special case in that I was so dismayed by the 2018 draft results that I refused to watch any college basketball or even think about the draft the following season. I have no connection to any of those players as a result. I just stumbled across the list earlier today and was surprised how many of the names had just been discussed ad nauseum at the most recent trade deadline.
I've been posting my thoughts semi regularly about this year's group in the draft thread. The only guy I'm 100% sold on is Caleb Wilson and he might be more "very good player" then superstar. There's a chance with him that he could exceed all expectations because he's super competitive, has the crazy athletic tools of an MVP, and seems to rise to the occasion in big matchups / crunch time. But he also plays more passively than I like to see right now as an off-ball defender. I don't like bad mouthing players, but I'm skeptical of the other top 4 guys. Peterson may have already let the Kobe comparisons go to his head. I haven't liked his body language on the court or on the bench. When Kansas was losing that big lead against BYU and he was apparently ruled out for the second half he didn't seem at all invested in the outcome of the game. Maybe I'm wrong and he's saving the killer instinct for his next stop. Dybantsa is intriguing but he runs too hot and cold for my taste -- allowing his team to go on a losing streak when he's supposed to be the best scorer in the league right now. And Boozer just got punked vs. North Carolina looking more like an empty stats guy than a future superstar. My perception right now is that this might eventually be a draft with a lot of very good players and no superstars. Which wouldn't be at all unusual, it's how most drafts go.
I don't follow college basketball at all, but when everyone keeps saying how there's 5 great players at the top and you can't go wrong with any of them I really start wondering how much is just piling on the hype train .... sounds like people are trying to convince themselves. We've seen this kind of thing too many times to believe that all five (or heck, likely more than 1 or 2) may ever be "great".
The Celtics tanked 96-97 entirely for Duncan and had the Mavs pick too. They thought it was in the bag and apparently so did Rick Pitino leaving his Kentucky machine for them. And he quit 18 months into the gig when the balls didn't bounce their way at all.
DRob was not because he owed the Navy a 4 year commitment coming out of the academy.
I thought Robinson might still qualify since he was ultimately taken first overall and he was immediately in the MVP conversation when he eventually did start his NBA career.
Insomniacal Fan
Starter
Who would you have picked at #1 in 2023 if not Victor? I appreciate being skeptical of physical outliers after the Oden story, but it's not like every big man is inevitably doomed to collapse under their own weight.
gunks
Hall of Famer
Nah, if we were really trying to tank we'd have Zach out there.
He for sure was the #1 guy that year, not even in doubt. My skepticism was two-fold: (1) Would he stay healthy long enough to put together a superstar caliber career? We have seen a lot more instances than just Oden of enormous humans suffering repeated stress injuries on their lower limbs. (2) Even if he does stay healthy, his most proven skill is shot blocking and that's not usually enough to make you a superstar. He does everything else really well too but he's incredibly thin and every team he faces is going to be trying to find his weaknesses and expose them.
For me those were enough reasons to disqualify him from sure-thing guaranteed superstar status. And yes, the Greg Oden experience weighed into that. To reinforce the point, I loved Chet Holmgren's game in 2022 but also didn't think I could stomach picking him first overall for the same reason. The injury risk does not sit well with me for players of this body type trying to last 15+ years in the NBA.