I'm starting out with a list of my own trade premises here just to clarify what I'm looking for in trades this season:
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(1) I want to make the playoffs this year, I'm not trading any of our core guys.
For me that means Cousins, Gay and Rondo are off the table.
(2) I'm also not trading either of our young players with long-term potential.
That means 22 year olds Cauley-Stein and McLemore are both off the table.
(3) Omri Casspi has value as a locker-room presence, Boogie whisperer, and
all-around good guy that exceeds his (considerable) value as a basketball player.
Also he's on a team friendly deal. He stays.
(4) Our biggest trade chips are veteran players, we can't trade draft picks.
So I'm looking for other teams on the playoff bubble who are motivated to
make changes and might be targeting vets.
(5) You can rule out Western Conference bubble teams because we don't
want to be helping any of them.
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So with that being said, here's the first trade idea I came up with -- this time targeting Orlando:
Orlando is 3 1/2 games back with some tough competition ahead of them. Reportedly they're looking for veterans and they might be willing to trade Oladipo, who hasn't really fit with their other pieces, in order to get an All-Star or at least someone that will push them into the 8 seed in the East. They've been trying to slide Oladipo between both backcourt spots to keep Fournier and Hezonja on the floor and they're also lacking in toughness and size inside. That second part is what might give us an opportunity. We need to make some changes and both Collison (Karl's favorite smallball SG) and Koufos (just 16 min per game over the last 5 games) are proving to be awkward fits on this current roster.
Let's look at what we're giving up:
Collison is not a player I want to trade, but the reality is that we have to give value to get value. He's shooting the lights out right now (.660/.538/.920 in his last 5 games) which pushes his season averages up to .475/.381/.846 and surely gives him some significant value. He also has experience as a starting PG, excelling in that position all last year (16.1 pts, 5.6 assts, 3.2 rebs, 1.5 stls, .473/.373/.788) and could help mentor Elfrid Payton while also giving them more shooting at the position. Since George Karl is basically just using him as scoring punch off the bench primarily at SG this year anyway, maybe we should trade him for an actual SG and find minutes for Seth Curry (and his 42% three point shooting) as the backup PG.
Koufos is the kind of rock solid veteran that a coach like Scott Skiles will be looking for. He's one of our best defenders but that's also part of the problem -- all of our best defenders are bigs. With Cauley-Stein and Acy providing energy and defense at the same positions, Koufos is a little redundant in our rotation right now. He also has 3 more years on his contract at escalating money (8 million, 8.5 million, 9 million player option). If Koufos is going to get squeezed out of the rotation, that's money we could spend more effectively elsewhere.
Let's look at what we're getting:
Frye has always been a one-trick pony, it just happens to be a trick that we're looking for right now. If we shift the front court rotation to emphasize our three best defenders (Cousins, Cauley-Stein, and Acy) as the primary pieces, the only thing which is really missing is a stretch 4. Channing Frye has a career average of 39% from deep and this season he's currently shooting 40%. With or without George Karl he'd have a role on this team.
Oladipo is the hardest sell with this trade proposal because he's the best overall player in the deal. Why would a team looking to improve trade a quality young player? Well, that's where the "it's complicated" part comes in. There are games where he looks like Russell Westbrook light. A ball hawking pest on defense and an explosive athlete who can score in bunches. Just last week he dropped 37 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists on OKC in a crazy track meet of a game. There are also games where he tries to do too much and goes 3 for 12, 1 for 10, 2 for 11. He's prone to making mistakes with the ball in crunch time. He shoots a lot and doesn't hit a very impressive percentage (.416/.346/.837) -- those aren't embarrassing numbers, they're right about where All-Star Isaiah Thomas is at this season -- but they're inefficient, especially from a position where you traditionally expect scoring efficiency.
It's the same mixed bag you see from most young players. Flashes of greatness tied to inconsistency and growing pains. If your backup SG is currently a black hole of suck like ours is though, pretty much anything would be an improvement. We can hide an inconsistent young player assuming he plays defense and moves the ball, both of which are true here. Orlando has used him as a combo guard out of necessity but they'd probably benefit from steadier leadership at PG. This trade gives them an opportunity to shore up two big weaknesses -- post defense and PG depth -- with reliable veterans without forking out any money. They'd be sacrificing some future potential for two pieces who fit their current roster better and give them a chance to compete for the playoffs right now. In terms of immediate impact, Darren Collison replaces most of what Oladipo is giving them only with better shooting percentages and Koufos is a clear upgrade to Frye defensively. Everybody wins!
So here's our new lineup after the trade--
PG .. Rondo/Curry
SG .. McLemore/Oladipo
SF ... Gay/Casspi
PF ... Acy/Cauley-Stein
C ..... Cousins/Frye
What the hell? You're picking up Oladipo and then putting him on the bench backing up Ben? Hear me out. Rudy Gay is trending up (40% in the last 5 games) but he's not hitting the three at a great rate this year. 36% is a career high for Rondo. I'd love it if he could maintain that post-All-Star break but the safer bet is he'll come down from there a bit. We need McLemore in the starting lineup because he's a more consistent 3pt threat than Oladipo and we need at least 1 consistent threat in the starting lineup, even if Rondo, Gay, Cousins, and Acy are all fringey decent 3pt shooters in their own right. Bringing Victor off the bench with a trio of 40% shooters in Curry, Casspi, and Frye would take the pressure off of him as a spot up threat and he can be more of a shot creator instead. Basically he's be playing the same role that Darren Collison is currently playing, just with less time handling the ball and no defensive compromises. I could be persuaded to change my mind on this though.
Still not sure what we do with Belinelli... but that'll have to wait until a different day.
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(1) I want to make the playoffs this year, I'm not trading any of our core guys.
For me that means Cousins, Gay and Rondo are off the table.
(2) I'm also not trading either of our young players with long-term potential.
That means 22 year olds Cauley-Stein and McLemore are both off the table.
(3) Omri Casspi has value as a locker-room presence, Boogie whisperer, and
all-around good guy that exceeds his (considerable) value as a basketball player.
Also he's on a team friendly deal. He stays.
(4) Our biggest trade chips are veteran players, we can't trade draft picks.
So I'm looking for other teams on the playoff bubble who are motivated to
make changes and might be targeting vets.
(5) You can rule out Western Conference bubble teams because we don't
want to be helping any of them.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
So with that being said, here's the first trade idea I came up with -- this time targeting Orlando:
Orlando is 3 1/2 games back with some tough competition ahead of them. Reportedly they're looking for veterans and they might be willing to trade Oladipo, who hasn't really fit with their other pieces, in order to get an All-Star or at least someone that will push them into the 8 seed in the East. They've been trying to slide Oladipo between both backcourt spots to keep Fournier and Hezonja on the floor and they're also lacking in toughness and size inside. That second part is what might give us an opportunity. We need to make some changes and both Collison (Karl's favorite smallball SG) and Koufos (just 16 min per game over the last 5 games) are proving to be awkward fits on this current roster.
Let's look at what we're giving up:
Collison is not a player I want to trade, but the reality is that we have to give value to get value. He's shooting the lights out right now (.660/.538/.920 in his last 5 games) which pushes his season averages up to .475/.381/.846 and surely gives him some significant value. He also has experience as a starting PG, excelling in that position all last year (16.1 pts, 5.6 assts, 3.2 rebs, 1.5 stls, .473/.373/.788) and could help mentor Elfrid Payton while also giving them more shooting at the position. Since George Karl is basically just using him as scoring punch off the bench primarily at SG this year anyway, maybe we should trade him for an actual SG and find minutes for Seth Curry (and his 42% three point shooting) as the backup PG.
Koufos is the kind of rock solid veteran that a coach like Scott Skiles will be looking for. He's one of our best defenders but that's also part of the problem -- all of our best defenders are bigs. With Cauley-Stein and Acy providing energy and defense at the same positions, Koufos is a little redundant in our rotation right now. He also has 3 more years on his contract at escalating money (8 million, 8.5 million, 9 million player option). If Koufos is going to get squeezed out of the rotation, that's money we could spend more effectively elsewhere.
Let's look at what we're getting:
Frye has always been a one-trick pony, it just happens to be a trick that we're looking for right now. If we shift the front court rotation to emphasize our three best defenders (Cousins, Cauley-Stein, and Acy) as the primary pieces, the only thing which is really missing is a stretch 4. Channing Frye has a career average of 39% from deep and this season he's currently shooting 40%. With or without George Karl he'd have a role on this team.
Oladipo is the hardest sell with this trade proposal because he's the best overall player in the deal. Why would a team looking to improve trade a quality young player? Well, that's where the "it's complicated" part comes in. There are games where he looks like Russell Westbrook light. A ball hawking pest on defense and an explosive athlete who can score in bunches. Just last week he dropped 37 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists on OKC in a crazy track meet of a game. There are also games where he tries to do too much and goes 3 for 12, 1 for 10, 2 for 11. He's prone to making mistakes with the ball in crunch time. He shoots a lot and doesn't hit a very impressive percentage (.416/.346/.837) -- those aren't embarrassing numbers, they're right about where All-Star Isaiah Thomas is at this season -- but they're inefficient, especially from a position where you traditionally expect scoring efficiency.
It's the same mixed bag you see from most young players. Flashes of greatness tied to inconsistency and growing pains. If your backup SG is currently a black hole of suck like ours is though, pretty much anything would be an improvement. We can hide an inconsistent young player assuming he plays defense and moves the ball, both of which are true here. Orlando has used him as a combo guard out of necessity but they'd probably benefit from steadier leadership at PG. This trade gives them an opportunity to shore up two big weaknesses -- post defense and PG depth -- with reliable veterans without forking out any money. They'd be sacrificing some future potential for two pieces who fit their current roster better and give them a chance to compete for the playoffs right now. In terms of immediate impact, Darren Collison replaces most of what Oladipo is giving them only with better shooting percentages and Koufos is a clear upgrade to Frye defensively. Everybody wins!
So here's our new lineup after the trade--
PG .. Rondo/Curry
SG .. McLemore/Oladipo
SF ... Gay/Casspi
PF ... Acy/Cauley-Stein
C ..... Cousins/Frye
What the hell? You're picking up Oladipo and then putting him on the bench backing up Ben? Hear me out. Rudy Gay is trending up (40% in the last 5 games) but he's not hitting the three at a great rate this year. 36% is a career high for Rondo. I'd love it if he could maintain that post-All-Star break but the safer bet is he'll come down from there a bit. We need McLemore in the starting lineup because he's a more consistent 3pt threat than Oladipo and we need at least 1 consistent threat in the starting lineup, even if Rondo, Gay, Cousins, and Acy are all fringey decent 3pt shooters in their own right. Bringing Victor off the bench with a trio of 40% shooters in Curry, Casspi, and Frye would take the pressure off of him as a spot up threat and he can be more of a shot creator instead. Basically he's be playing the same role that Darren Collison is currently playing, just with less time handling the ball and no defensive compromises. I could be persuaded to change my mind on this though.
Still not sure what we do with Belinelli... but that'll have to wait until a different day.
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I'm not interested in appeasing him. But with our without Karl we need to solve some problems here. Belinelli shouldn't be getting any minutes the way he's playing which opens up a need for another SG. Koufos looks like a poor fit with Cauley-Stein already replacing him in the rotation halfway through his rookie season and yet we have Koufos for 3 more years. He risks turning into a wasted asset if we bench him and let his value plummet.
