[Rumor] NBA Insider Predicts Keon Ellis' New Contract in Free Agency

[Sacramento Kings On SI]

The Sacramento Kings are on the verge of a busy offseason, with guys like Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan potentially on the move. While it is unlikely a blockbuster trade comes out of Sacramento this summer, they do have the tools to stay competitive in the Western Conference, especially around some of their role players. Kings guard Keon Ellis is an emerging defensive star, coming off a breakout season. In his first full season under a standard contract, Ellis averaged 8.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 43.3% from three-point range.

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[iowamcnabb]

That’s higher than I think most of us were projecting.

 

[Tetsujin]

I’m sorry but if some team decides they want to pay Keon 25 million bucks a season, they can have him lol. Maybe a sign and trade haha

 

[iowamcnabb]

I’m sorry but if some team decides they want to pay Keon 25 million bucks a season, they can have him lol. Maybe a sign and trade haha

Double what Herb Jones got and more than Alex Caruso seems a little out of line.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I mean, Keon was worth 5 WS last season, and my rule of thumb (3% of the salary cap per WS in free agency) puts him around a $23M value.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If we gave him a lorge contract maybe he would receive a lorger share of the minutes?

 

[The_Jamal]

Not sure how accurate this Hoopshype article is, but they're saying BKN and DET are the only 2 teams even capable of offering 25 mil

 

[SacTownKid]

Bruce Brown and KCP part 2. With even less hype than those two. This is why the smart choice is letting his last year play out. If he blows up into a star then he'll be solid trade bait and the Kings still have his rights and can pay him the most.

 

[The_Jamal]

Bruce Brown and KCP part 2. With even less hype than those two. This is why the smart choice is letting his last year play out. If he blows up into a star then he'll be solid trade bait and the Kings still have his rights and can pay him the most.

No, he's a UFA after next season. Which, would be incredibly stupid to let hit the open market, especially if we actually play him this season and he contends for an All-Defensive team spot

 

[SacTownKid]

No, he's a UFA after next season. Which, would be incredibly stupid to let hit the open market.

The Kings still have Bird rights though. Keon isn't going to ignore the Kings, the Kings just can't match another offer which is mostly used for sign and trade leverage anyway, big whoop.

 

[The_Jamal]

The Kings still have Bird rights though. Keon isn't going to ignore the Kings, the Kings just can't match another offer which is mostly used for sign and trade leverage anyway, big whoop.

huh? RFA is a very big deal, why would you waste a resource like that for no reason? Especially in an off-season where there's like no cap space around the league?

 

[Padrino]

huh? RFA is a very big deal, why would you waste a resource like that for no reason? Especially in an off-season where there's like no cap space around the league?

Yeah, you don't f*** around with an asset like Keon Ellis, especially since you're not breaking the bank to keep him as an RFA, and he's an incredibly valuable piece to have in either a retool or a rebuild. He's not the guy you regret signing/extending, especially when you need to find a way to be taken seriously as a team that commits to playing above-average defense.

 

[The_Jamal]

Yeah, you don't f*** around with an asset like Keon Ellis, especially since you're not breaking the bank to keep him as an RFA, and he's an incredibly valuable piece to have in either a retool or a rebuild. He's not the guy you regret signing/extending, especially when you need to find a way to be taken seriously as a team that commits to playing above-average defense.

Even if Keon is 25mil/season, who cares? 15% of the cap that's going to continue to rise year over year? He's clearly worth every penny of that, especially for a team that's so largely ignored quality defense for so long. There's no replacing him.

 

[SacTownKid]

huh? RFA is a very big deal, why would you waste a resource like that for no reason? Especially in an off-season where there's like no cap space around the league?

RFA can also bloat the contract of a player even more if 1 team sees immense value. If Keon is worth 25 million or more, he has to prove it. He hasn't yet. Even a team coming out with a full MLE could be a mistake in the end. Probably not at this point but if Keon breaks out and it worth this kind of money, then a team with cap space seeing that is still forcing you to pay the max on that, which you already could anyway. Like I said, maybe a sign and trade could be worked out but those don't exactly set franchises up very often. The Kings regardless can offer the most money and years.

 

[SacTownKid]

Even if Keon is 25mil/season, who cares? 15% of the cap that's going to continue to rise year over year? He's clearly worth every penny of that, especially for a team that's so largely ignored quality defense for so long. There's no replacing him.

Who cares? Ask the Magic on that one. Paying Keon 25 million a year at this point would be insanity.

 

[The_Jamal]

Who cares? Ask the Magic on that one. Paying Keon 25 million a year at this point would be insanity.

I get you're for some reason afraid of spending money at any point for some reason, but you do not cheap out on Keon, who HAS proven how elite he is and impactful to winning games. Proof was in the pudding last season and the end of the 23-24 year.

Letting Keon hit UFA would be beyond malpractice. It'd be Vlade Divac level stupid GMing.

 

[SacTownKid]

I get you're for some reason afraid of spending money at any point for some reason, but you do not cheap out on Keon, who HAS proven how elite he is and impactful to winning games. Proof was in the pudding last season and the end of the 23-24 year.

Letting Keon hit UFA would be beyond malpractice. It'd be Vlade Divac level stupid GMing.

Uh, because the Kings have consistently overpaid for role guys much? lol. This would all be conversations had between the team and Keons agent. Cheaping out is a lot better than overpaying with where the Kings are currently at. Keon is a role player that would have to be close to a teams final piece to assess how damaging overvaluing would be. Not getting bit by pure 3 and D players can be tricky. Let history be the guide, Bruce Brown and KCP are your warning signs. If Keon is a star in hiding then as I said, the Kings can still offer the money and the years. If Keon wants to leave he was likely headed that way already anyway. I'm not sure how accurate it is but on Spotrac is says Keon is extension eligible come next February also. The Kings have options here.

 

[The_Jamal]

Uh, because the Kings have consistently overpaid for role guys much? lol. This would all be conversations had between the team and Keons agent. Cheaping out is a lot better than overpaying with where the Kings are currently at. Keon is a role player that would have to be close to a teams final piece to assess how damaging overvaluing would be. Not getting bit by pure 3 and D players can be tricky. Let history be the guide, Bruce Brown and KCP are your warning signs. If Keon is a star in hiding then as I said, the Kings can still offer the money and the years. If Keon wants to leave he was likely headed that way already anyway. I'm not sure how accurate it is but on Spotrac is says Keon is extension eligible come next February also. The Kings have options here.

If your worried about overpaying, why would we possibly let him play out this final year, lose all team control on him and then "try" and extend him later down the line? The plan with him is so incredibly obvious, you decline the team option, he hits RFA and the market (which I think literally has 2 teams that can offer 25+mil), decide his worth.

I generally don't understand your thesis to this off-season. So it's better to let Keon walk than "potentially" overpay for him?

 

[Padrino]

I get you're for some reason afraid of spending money at any point for some reason, but you do not cheap out on Keon, who HAS proven how elite he is and impactful to winning games. Proof was in the pudding last season and the end of the 23-24 year.

Letting Keon hit UFA would be beyond malpractice. It'd be Vlade Divac level stupid GMing.

Yeah, at a certain point, you have to bet on your own homegrown talent, especially when it flashes such immediate eye-catching impact and All-Defensive-level upside. If you're not working to retain a guy like that... I mean, what are we even doing here? What's the point of playing with found money by plucking undrafted free agents out of obscurity and actually developing them into impact players just to chance paying them more later as an UFA or risk losing them altogether? You bet on yourself and your developmental program and you bet on Keon Ellis being the type who rises to the occasion.

 

[The_Jamal]

Yeah, at a certain point, you have to bet on your own homegrown talent, especially when it flashes such immediate eye-catching impact and All-Defensive-level upside. If you're not working to retain a guy like that... I mean, what are we even doing here? What's the point of playing with found money by plucking undrafted free agents out of obscurity and actually developing them into impact players just to chance paying them more later as an UFA or risk losing them altogether? You bet on yourself and your developmental program and you bet on Keon Ellis being the type who rises to the occasion.

Yep. You cannot wait until every single player on the team is an established star before paying them. You have to take a stand at some point and take a "risk" in predicting what a guy can become. I think the risk is basically 0 with Keon since he's already among the more impactful players in the NBA on the defensive end. And provides elite shooting on top of it.

Keegan is probably $100 mil player on the open market. Do you let him walk too? What happens with Carter in 2 years if he continues to progress, but not quite a star? Is he gone?

 

[Padrino]

Yep. You cannot wait until every single player on the team is an established star before paying them. You have to take a stand at some point and take a "risk" in predicting what a guy can become. I think the risk is basically 0 with Keon since he's already among the more impactful players in the NBA on the defensive end. And provides elite shooting on top of it.

Keegan is probably $100 mil player on the open market. Do you let him walk too? What happens with Carter in 2 years if he continues to progress, but not quite a star? Is he gone?

The Kings have paid more for far less valuable players in recent memory. If I'm Doug Christie, I'm not letting the front office even think about Keon Ellis in some other team's jersey next season.

 

[SacTownKid]

If your worried about overpaying, why would we possibly let him play out this final year, lose all team control on him and then "try" and extend him later down the line? The plan with him is so incredibly obvious, you decline the team option, he hits RFA and the market (which I think literally has 2 teams that can offer 25+mil), decide his worth.

I generally don't understand your thesis to this off-season. So it's better to let Keon walk than "potentially" overpay for him?

Yes. For the same reason it was better to let Jason Thompson walk or any role player when your franchise is so up in the air. By this point next season he would have clearly illustrated his value. If he does, it's not overpaying. And we'll have to see what teams have cap space, that number could very well change. Keon is here for another year in a worst case, he's got Bird rights, and extension potential. If the Kings had no other possibilities clearly you decline the option but they do. If in the Kings conversations with Keon and other teams it sounds wise to gamble on the overpay then great. My actual biggest concern would be another team not only offering money but a starting spot then getting forced into a sign and trade.

 

[SacTownKid]

Keegan is probably $100 mil player on the open market. Do you let him walk too? What happens with Carter in 2 years if he continues to progress, but not quite a star? Is he gone?

Keegan is a surefire starter, we're not even sure Keon will be. If Carter were in the same spot now? Of course you don't overpay. A big part of the value in Carter and why it would be stupid to trade him is his contract. Rookie controlled contracts when drafted have so many other benefits.

 

[Padrino]

Yes. For the same reason it was better to let Jason Thompson walk or any role player when your franchise is so up in the air. By this point next season he would have clearly illustrated his value. If he does, it's not overpaying. And we'll have to see what teams have cap space, that number could very well change. Keon is here for another year in a worst case, he's got Bird rights, and extension potential. If the Kings had no other possibilities clearly you decline the option but they do.

Jason Thompson. Keon Ellis. One of these things is not like the other...

Also, does it matter that the franchise is "so up in the air"? How does Keon Ellis inhibit anything the Kings might want to do? Retool? He's plug-and-play as a starter or off the bench. Rebuild? He's young enough to be a valuable piece as you forge a new identity. He's neither limiting your ceiling nor standing in the way of anyone's growth.

 

[The_Jamal]

Keegan is a surefire starter, we're not even sure Keon will be. If Carter were in the same spot now? Of course you don't overpay. A big part of the value in Carter and why it would be stupid to trade him is his contract. Rookie controlled contracts when drafted have so many other benefits.

We aren't sure Keon is a starter????????

So you're just not properly valuing Keon.

 

[SacTownKid]

Jason Thompson. Keon Ellis. One of these things is not like the other...

Also, does it matter that the franchise is "so up in the air"? How does Keon Ellis inhibit anything the Kings might want to do? Retool? He's plug-and-play as a starter or off the bench. Rebuild? He's young enough to be a valuable piece as you forge a new identity. He's neither limiting your ceiling nor standing in the way of anyone's growth.

But both are projecting as ROLE PLAYERS. Don't eat your cap up with those if you aren't going places. Simple as that. The Kings have to look at value very carefully because the "risks" the Kings have takev over the last number of years have yielded what they have. They've played the slots on building around Fox, running it back the 2nd year, creating space for DeRozan, trading for LaVine, and so on. Being pragmatic in all facets is the wise choice at this point. Like I said, the Kings aren't completely out on anything if they let it play out. If they didn't have Bird rights or even that extension option then this might go way up the list of top shelf issue this offseason but that isn't the case.

 

[SacTownKid]

We aren't sure Keon is a starter????????

So you're just not properly valuing Keon.

I'm talking about with Sacramento next season, any 3 and D player can start if a team sees the fit. Unless the Kings move LaVine I think it's 50/50 bet at best he's a starter next season.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Hopefully the conversation with Keon goes something like this - "we like you, we're committed to keeping you. We'll get you paid now, we'd like to offer this but if you want to explore the open market we'll match the annual price, but hope you will sign to team friendly terms in exchange for us waiving the discount year".

If he is resistant about this it might mean he'll be looking to move mid-contract and we might want to explore all of our options in that case. Hopefully he is grateful both to the team that gave him an opportunity and realizes by giving him a big raise now, insuring him against injury and other uncertainties, it gives the team a better chance to contend if he amortizes some of the early raise over the full contract.

who knows, some guys only want to get paid. Would be great to figure out if that's who he is right now before we decline the option.

Incidentally, what's the deadline on that? I assume it is before we start signing free agents?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I'm talking about with Sacramento next season, any 3 and D player can start if a team sees the fit. Unless the Kings move LaVine I think it's 50/50 bet at best he's a starter next season.

Bold is true. Actually that was the most frustrating part of acquiring him was burying Keon.

 

[SacTownKid]

Hopefully the conversation with Keon goes something like this - "we like you, we're committed to keeping you. We'll get you paid now, we'd like to offer this but if you want to explore the open market we'll match the annual price, but hope you will sign to team friendly terms in exchange for us waiving the discount year".

If he is resistant about this it might mean he'll be looking to move mid-contract and we might want to explore all of our options in that case. Hopefully he is grateful both to the team that gave him an opportunity and realizes by giving him a big raise now, insuring him against injury and other uncertainties, it gives the team a better chance to contend if he amortizes some of the early raise over the full contract.

who knows, some guys only want to get paid. Would be great to figure out if that's who he is right now before we decline the option.

Incidentally, what's the deadline on that? I assume it is before we start signing free agents?

I read June 29th somewhere. And I'm more worried about "well, this team is offering a starting spot or something else so let me go." Keon might have very little market or a huge one, Perry in making his calls would likely have already heard exactly what teams feeling is on that.