Mike Bibby: Are the Numbers Misleading?

playmaker0017 · Feb 20, 2006

bigbadred00 said:

Yes, that's my point.

Nahs isn't a "good" defender. He's below average. But, he at least TRIES. He doesn't get beat downcourt every time by the PFs and Cs. This is a constant for Mike Bibby. I constantly see the PF beat Mike Bibby back on defense ... and that's sad considering where Mike is on the court compared to the PF.

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

playmaker0017 said:

The point is both are below average defensively at their position. Trying and doing are two seperate things. I could try my hardest to stop Lebron, doesn't mean it'll do anything. Nash can try to his heart's content but he gets smoked left and right by all the good PGs in the league. Bibby does as well, but as you've even repeated, your trying to compare the lesser of two evils. Both are terrible defensively, Nash has become slightly better offensively than Bibby, maybe even much better. Nash is in the perfect role for a playmaker PG. Bibby's role is less clearly defined as Nash is. Bibby is scorer first in our offence. If you don't like that offence, blame Adelman. The thing is, even with Artest slowing it down, the O still isn't the problem. The D is still the problem, from time to time the O sputters, but that's expected when you make so many trades in the last 12 months. The D is what needs to start saving us. The O has been there and will be there.

I remember last year, some fans kept saying Webber makes the offence SPUTTER, well at the time we were second in the league in O. Don't worry about the team offensively, yes from time to time we are going to struggle, worry about the D, which will make or break the team. Hopefully with the infusion of Artest, the team will become more motivated defensively (seems to have already partially happened).

1kingzfan · Feb 20, 2006

OK, here's a minor attempt at a thread mid-course correction.

My ultimate point with starting this thread was to get some opinions on whether or not Mike was instrumental to the Kings' future. The stats were presented to make a case that maybe Mike was not as All Star-like as some would give him credit for, since he is not a leader in any stat categories versus other PGs, except scoring and how many shots he puts up per game. So the question of his "expendability" was raised.

The thread has morphed into a "well, what PG can we get who is better?" mode. My eye was on a defensive improvement in the front line, with a virtual given that we would wind up with a lesser point guard than Mike. Peja was traded not because he was a major problem, but it was an opportunity to get better defensively and at some other things. The Artest trade, even though it was a 3 for a 3, was more like an apple for an orange with the hope that the orange would make the whole basket of fruit better than it was with the apple. (yeah, I know, crappy analogy).

Although most folks here have avoided speaking directly to Bibby's current "stat standings", some solid points have been raised regarding his clutchness, which is huge but very difficult to place a quantitative value upon. Also, it has been raised if trading Mike would gut us offensively too much, since we already lost our other most prolific scorer not long ago. Again, a solid point.

Again, I believe that if we make one other major tweak, we are likely done for this season playoff-wise. Just too much mayhem and change to put it all together. However, if a near-term move to make us even better defensively arises in the next couple days, and you're the GM, do you do it? Or do you just ride with what you've got and look to the summer to further retool?

We are still in a for a major, major struggle just to get in at #8 this season, and it would be a WONDERFUL thing if the Kings could accomplish that. That event might even garner some votes for RA as coach of the year. But it seems to me, even though ANYTHING is possible in the post-season, that this is just not OUR year.

So I say that if the right deal came along that involved Bibby to get better defensively on the front line, I'd do it, looking to the long-term to build a foundation of a winner with D. It's a risky move but perhaps not even as risky as some that have been already made by Petrie.

reyes13 · Feb 20, 2006

Does anyone think Bibby is being overpaid? The last year of his contract he's signed to make 14 mil. Just too much in my book.

playmaker0017 · Feb 20, 2006

bigbadred00 said:

Yes, they are - but I'd rather a guy try and fail than flop around and lollygag with the same result. It sets a precident.

As a PG, you should be one of the first people back on defense the majority of the time. When I watch, he's usually one of the last. He gets beat down the court by out of shape Artest, playing in the lane. Thomas. Miller. That's sad.

playmaker0017 · Feb 20, 2006

1kingzfan said:

I'd say no.

We have decent shooters on this team. Miller can hit a shot. Artest can hit a shot. Martin can hit a shot. Reef can hit a shot.

We've got some AWESOME scorers on this team - two guys that have either averaged 20+PPG for their career or right near it in Reef and Artest.

We don't need a PG that can only contribute his shot to the game.

I honestly think the lineup of:

Garcia, Martin, Artest, Reef, Thomas
would beat (badly)
Bibby, Bonzi, Artest, Reef, Miller

That's not to say that the first lineup is more talented than the second lineup ... but they play defense from top to bottom. (or at least try to play defense)

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

Kingz-Give me a plausible scenario. Let's say a miracle happened. Ben Wallace wanted out of Detroit. I would immediately put Bibby out as part of a 3 way deal to get Big Ben. At the same time I'd look to draft 1 of three players, Rondo, Foye, Colllins. Then again, I don't think Big Ben and Artest would get along. Let's say, KG was up. I'd package Bibby and whoever needed to go to get the guy. Is anyone else up there? Not sure. But I'd make sure the team drafted a good point guard out of college or some how traded for a guy like Brevin Knight (excellent pass first PG).

Right Now, here's my thinking on all the Players:

Artest-Excellent defender, excellent team defender, good leader. Bad shot selection, pretty damn good post player. Is a head case, but hasn't had problems yet.

Bibby-Weak Defender, not a great leader, clutch player. Needs to work on D, D, D. Good shooter, good 3 point shooter. Decent Passer (I think it's the system rather than the skill set.

Martin-Weird shot but great shooter (% wise), decent rebounder, decent D. Keeper for sure.

Bonzi-Above Average Defender, great rebounder, kind of a headcase. Decent near the post for a guard.

SAR-Decent defender, decent post player, I don't think we've seen him in full action yet due to adjustment period and breaking jaw. Not a franchise player, but not a bad piece.

Kenny-Below average defender (due to size), shooter. Needs to start, but shouldn't. Great rebounder for size in the mark of Marion.

Brad-Great passer, great shooter. Below Average Defender. Needs to develop the tough streak. I hope with Artest in the mix, he starts doing things he used to do in Indy.

Garcia-My hope is he is another Defensive monster. At times he looks to be. His shot needs to be worked on, but otherwise is a great role player off the bench for us now.

Hart-Awful. Doesn't seem to be doing anything right when he gets on the court. I don't know why, he played well as Brevin's backup last year, but he needs to be BOOTED off the team (NBDL or something).

Skinner-I wish he played more. He is undersized, but a pretty solid defender. Offensively he is a joke, but defensively he is very solid and a very solid rebounder.

My ideal situation:

PG-Play Maker who is clutch. Can shoot (Billups esque)
SG-A pure shooter, in the mold of Kobe, Reggie, etc. A guy who can plain score, Ray Allen I guess is ideal but not relistic.
SF-A guy who can D up. Play in the post (Artest, AK47) and score when he needs to.
PF-A guy who can score, and board (Webber in prime) and defend.
C-A guy who can defend the post (Ben Wallace)

Pg/Sg-Combo guard who can bring in quick points and quality D (Bobby J in Prime)
SF-Another defensive player who can shoot the 3 (Bowen)
PF/C-Scoring type, who can block shots (Skinner-esque, better at O though).

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

Honestly, Detroit is pretty close to my ideal team for winning a title. I think Sheed isn't the ideal player, since he's not that much of a scorer that'd I'd like inside, other wise they do have a lot of great pieces. If I was going to build the team in the mold of the old Kings teams, I'd have a lot of work to do.

Right now, the only guys who kinda pass like Webber in his Prime and are big are KG, Gasol and Miller. Nobody plays like Vlade right now. It'd be tough to get an ideal Princeton Offence Team with good D (to win the title of course).

playmaker0017 · Feb 20, 2006

bigbadred00 said:

Pretty good read, IMO.

I think he's usually smarter with the ball, at least when I've seen him play in the past. He's not usually puking up garbage.

Again, I agree, except I think he's a Terrible Defender. Among the bottom 3 in defense at his position, if not dead last. He flops on screens and refuses to push past them. We might as well name him velcro, cause once he sticks to a screen his man is gone.

I would also remove the "clutch" label. He's been anything but clutch this year. He may have done it in the past and made his name in that series, but he's not really doing it all this year.

I've seen him as a pass-first PG. He's not really that good. He'll get assists, but he's not CREATING for his man. Watch Boris Diaw play and watch him break down his man, pull the defense and then find an open player for a layup. That's a good passer.

Definitely. I'd also like to add that he's becoming a smart player. He's making the smart pass and taking smart shots. Those are key things for a guy in his second year.

Another good read, except he isn't really a "great" rebounder. He's having a stellar year.

Up until Ron Artest, Reef has been our best defender. I think he's become an above average defender.

As for decent post player ... he's the ONLY guy on the roster to average 20+ PPG for a season. He's done it for the majority of his career while taking 15-16 shots a game. That's better than ordinary, that's top in the league.

Definitely NOT a franchise player. To be franchise, IMO, you've got to be top 5-8 on both sides of the ball. Duncan/Garnett are those types of players.

Comparing Marion and Kenny is odd. Marion is an athletic freak-fest, Thomas is just a tenacious dog.

I'd say that's a fair read, of course, I'd say he's also a terrible defender. Among the worst in his position. But he DOES make those around him better and he doesn't require a lot of shots to be effective.

This guy will be a stud.

1kingzfan · Feb 20, 2006

bigbadred00 said:

I really don't HAVE a plausible scenario.

However, I did take a look at the league players and came up with a list of possible candidates, some to many of which would obviously include miracles to happen, that I think would make the Kings' defensive front line a lot better.

This list is not meant to say that I would accept a straight up trade for Bibby (if indeed the salaries even worked), but all I'm saying is that if I'm Petrie and another GM calls me about trading one of these players in a package that includes Bibby, I do not hang up the phone immediately but rather listen to the proposition:

Garnett
B. Wallace
R. Wallace
Duncan
Camby
AK47
J. O'Neal
Stoudemire
Gasol
Marion
The other KMart
Chandler
Okafor
D. Howard
Haslem

Naturally, each of these players represent various levels of "untouchability", are in scenraios where a trade makes no sense (eg, why would Phoenix trade for a good PG?), and would have varying abilities to make us better on D. So the point is not to debate this list, which I hope no one will do (because that debate on EXACTLY who's on the list could go on forever, and my list is a quickie and not meant to be exclusive), but rather just to show that there are a number of choices from various teams that could make the Kings a lot better defensively.

It's possible, folks.

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

Only reason I compare Kenny and Marion is that they are both undersized, and for their size are great rebounders. Your right Kenny is due to more effort, Marion is due to more athletism. But I think for their size they are very good rebounders. Kenny has averaged more than 10 rebounds a year in Philly.

The only plausible scenarios I see on that list are Haslem (overrated) and K-Mart (not really that good and not much better than SAR or Kenny especially for the price you pay). Chandler is overrated (horrible this year), the rest would be awesome but so unrealistic right now. KG I think is the only one reasonable considering his age and salary and his team. The rest I believe are untouchable considering age (Amare, Dwight, Okafor), salary and team.

VF21 · Feb 20, 2006

1kingzfan said:

????

You're positing that we should trade Bibby to get a quality big but then don't have any particular player in mind?

Isn't that like saying we should trade Kenny and SAR for a PF who could rebound, score from the low post, pass from the high post AND block at least 5 shots a night?

Of course, virtually every player is expendable. If Kings fans haven't learned that the last couple of years, they haven't learned anything.

If you're wondering if Bibby could be traded to improve the front court, then I would think you have to have someone in mind for the question to be relevant.

If you're wondering if Bibby SHOULD be traded for the same reason, the same rationale applies.

IMHO you're really putting the cart before the horse and you're trying to read way too much into something that may or may not occur.

Pesonally, I don't see Petrie moving Bibby at this point in time because we simply do not have someone anywhere near his caliber to fill the gap.

I predict - and of course that could be disastrous - that what we see right now, with the possible exception of a move involving BONZI, is pretty much the team we'll see on Feb. 24. And I think if the Peja deal had not come along, we wouldn't have seen any more trades anyway. I firmly believe that Petrie was going to give this group of players ONE year to see what they could do and then do his adjustments in the off-season when he really prefers to do them.

captain bill · Feb 20, 2006

bcfy said:

Since this thread talk about stats, I will use this great PG list to play with some stats too...

Nash- 19.4ppg 11apg 3.8 TO
Iverson- 33.2ppg 7.3apg 3.1 TO
Arenas- 28.3ppg, 5.9apg 43 FG%
Kidd- 14.4ppg, 7.7apg 42 FG%
Davis- 18.7ppg 9.2apg 39 FG% 3 TO
Billups- 18.9ppg 8.5apg 42 FG%
Terry- 16.4ppg 3.9 apg
Paul- 15.9ppg 7.7apg 43 FG%
Miller- 14.5ppg 8.2apg 3 TO
James- 17.9ppg 5.4apg
West- sorry I don't even know who you are talking about
Ford- 12.1ppg 6.4apg 39 FG% 3.2 TO
Cassell- 17.9ppg 6.5apg
Parker- 19.4ppg 5.8apg
Francis- 16.3ppg 5.7apg 3.4 TO
Marbury- 18.1ppg 6.9apg 2.9 TO
Bibby- 20.5ppg 5.4apg 43 FG% 2.45 TO

Well, IMO, I would throw away Terry, James, West, and Ford from the top PG list without thinking. Francis is having his worst year, so I would count him out too.

So we left with Bibby, Areanas, Kidd, Davis, Billups, Paul, Cassell, Parker, Nash, Iverson and Marbury. Other than Iverson, Nash and Areanas, the rest are basically playing at about same level this season.

Now the big question: Are any of the above big names not "one of the best PG" in this league? So why would you question if Bibby is not one of the best PG if they are all playing at about a same level?

You have to include rebounds and considerations of defense to make the analysis more "true". And Bibby is far behind almost all players on that list in those respects.

playmaker0017 · Feb 20, 2006

VF21 said:

That's, in my opinion, the magic of Bibby. It isn't that we couldn't get a better PG. There are any number of players that are better PGs. Right now, Garcia runs the Passing Guard position better than Bibby.

The problem is that we lose that shot and that shot is going to become vital if we plan to run the offense in the post at all. We need someone to stretch the defense ... and not many guys out there can do that at the PG slot as well as Bibby can.

Almost any player out there can deliver the passing and defense Bibby brings, but no one exists to replace the shot.

That leaves us looking at SG positions to get a shot from. Martin MAY deliver the goods, but that remains to be seen. But, I wouldn't drop Martin to get a good shooting SG. That's just detrimental. No way we replace Artest with a spot on shooter. And no one shoots better than Miller at the C. Not many at the PF slot are significantly better than Reef.

So, it's almost self-fulfilling with Bibby. He's not necessarily even close to the best PG out there - but he brings the one of the best shots of all the PGs.

VF21 · Feb 20, 2006

You and I don't agree very often, playmaker

but in this case I think you've said precisely what I was trying to get at.

And at this point in the season, with unanswered questions about SAR and Kenny, and Bonzi, I don't see Petrie - who is known for his fondness for shooters - getting rid of the best one we have left unless it's for a blockbuster deal.

bcfy · Feb 20, 2006

captain bill said:

umm sorry i don't think you should consider the "rebounding" because it is just like comparing centers "assists per game"...it is just totally unfair.
Considerations of defense? Very hard to show in stat sheets...just like Ron's impact is very hard to find if you just looking at numbers. But yes, we all know Bibby's defense sucks, but there are somethings that the other players on that list lack on as well...i just don't see how he is far behind.
Yes, he is not the best of the best, like Nash, Iverson, or Billups if you want to say he is.....but Bibby is still in that top PGs list.
And btw, if you don't see Bibby try harder at the defensive end after the arrival of Ron Artest...you probably haven't watch enough of Kings basketball lately.

bcfy · Feb 20, 2006

piksi said:

So? Bibby had many career games against different teams this season. Does that mean the PG of other teams sucks more?

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

bcfy said:

As others have stated and this is a good point, defensive PG is almost an oxymoron. You want your PG to be the QB. Defensively, most of the times your going to take a hit because the QB just doesn't play D well. You have your exceptions, the Billups, the Hunters, the Paytons in their prime, but most of the time your left with the Nashs, the Bibbys leading the team. If your going to lack defense at a position, I'd say lack it at the point. What's really been killing us the last 2 years is lack of D in the middle, our PF or Center have really been that great defensive oriented, pre or post Webber trade. It's much easier to build Inside-Out defensively than the other way around. If we had a defensive stopper in the paint, it would help the rest of the team. Ron is definitely a help either way, he can guard other teams PFs (on the shorter side), but we still need someone to block the occasional shot or try to block the occasional shot. Right now I still think most great post players can kill us inside because their not scared to go "in deep" against our bigs like they would against the likes of Detroit or SA or even Dallas now with Dampier and Diop.

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

Next thing we're going to hear is someone shout out for a Shot Blocking Point Guard and a Center who bombs 3s like Ray Allen. 95% of players fit their roles. Dirk is an exception rather than the rule when it comes to 7 footers who shoot 3s. Personally I'd rather have the more stereotypical type of player with the occasional specialty, like the big man who can pass (Webber, Miller) or the Big Man who can shooter (Miller) or the Guard who can play in the Post (Artest) etc.

jonnny10 · Feb 20, 2006

Čarolija said:

Billups also plays with the Wallace brothers and Tayshaun Prince on defense.......Bibby plays with Brad Miller and Reef lol (what a defensive presence)

jonnny10 · Feb 20, 2006

piksi said:

yeah before billups got surrounded by talent, he was looking for a new team each season. the pistons make billups look good.

BBallGrl15 · Feb 20, 2006

reyes13 said:

Is there any player in the league that isn't?

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

jonnny10 said:

Billups was a #3 overall pick. He's performed when it counted, in the finals. He's about as clutch as they come. I'm not a huge fan but he's proven to be very good in a Pistons uniform.

You can say that just about everyone. Would TD be that good if he didn't have Popovich and Company? Put TD on Atlanta, would they win? Who knows. This is a team sport, the best players fit their team the best. Billups currently fits the Pistons to a T. That's all you can ask for from a player.

Do you think Nash would work on any team, please? I think TD might work better than most players. KG would work, but certain players can't fit certain systems no matter how hard they try. Shaq can move around like the best of um (5 conference finals + appearances with 3 teams).

The point is, if your the ideal player for the job, your very important to the team. Right now Billups is the ideal player to run the point with the Pistons. He's an MVP candidate because of this.

jonnny10 · Feb 20, 2006

bigbadred00 said:

yes, if TD was on Atlanta, they would win and be a playoff team too. And yes, Nash would work on any team, even on the suns with raja bell, diaw, marion, and kurt thomas (with exception to Matrix, a bunch of nobodies until they played with Nash; also why Nash>Bibby). yeah, Billups fits well with the Pistons, but that doesnt mean he's better than Bibby. You think Billups woudl be as good if he wasnt on the Pistons? who knows but Billups made and is making his name when Big Ben was blocking shots, Sheed was unstoppable offensively, Rip was running circles around the other team and Tayshaun was locking down the other team's best guard.

billups for mvp??nahhhhh...all 5 piston starters are equally as valuable.

Entity · Feb 20, 2006

just a thought. I know you have all seen the ads for Better Basketball. I wonder what Mike had to say and had to teach about defense???

bigbadred00 · Feb 20, 2006

Nash would work on any team? Oh did he win titles in Dallas? I didn't think so. He has requirements as well, guys who can run. He won't ever win in teams that play a more of a half court focus. TD was a bad example, but there are a lot of players throughout the league who can't work everywhere meaning as well as they are doing now. There are also players who can only strive in certain situations.

Could Dampier be on a running team? Could Bibby be on a full out running team?

Nash works well because he loves to run and play make and the guys around him (all undersized players who will run e/c Kurt Thomas).

I didn't say Billups was an MVP candidate, the Media did. I guess Nash will win it again since TD is having a horrid year, Shaq has been hurt and noone else other than Billups and Dirk have really bene that special. I guess Kobe could get consideration but it's been a long time since a team with less than 50 wins won the title. On order to win you usually have to be on a contender, Billups right now is the best player on a team with the best record ala Nash, would I personally did not think deserved it.

mcsluggo · Feb 21, 2006

Duncan is ALWAYS worse in the first half of the season. Not sure exactly what it is, but i THINK it has alot to do with the fact that Popovich uses the first half of the season to tinker. To try out new players and new playsets. to see what the rest of the players can do when given focus. He KNOWS what TD can do, he has that in his pocket. But it seems like Popo-McVeigh uses the relatively meaningless dolldrums of the first half of the season to challenge and prepare the rest of the team, and find out who he can count on when it matters. I think it is one of Pop's strongest traits as a coach.

Kings have been kinda FORCED into a similar situation this season, and as a result they are getting an idea what Kevin, Garcia, and Jason Hart can do for them. (not EVERYONE turns out to be a diamond in the rough) I just wish the Kings had been "forced" to rely on that freakishly athletic forward that now lives in North Carolina, before he slipped away.

mcsluggo · Feb 21, 2006

bigbadred00 said:

Nash would work on any team? Oh did he win titles in Dallas? I didn't think so. He has requirements as well, guys who can run. He won't ever win in teams that play a more of a half court focus. TD was a bad example, but there are a lot of players throughout the league who can't work everywhere meaning as well as they are doing now. There are also players who can only strive in certain situations.

Could Dampier be on a running team? Could Bibby be on a full out running team?

Nash works well because he loves to run and play make and the guys around him (all undersized players who will run e/c Kurt Thomas).

I didn't say Billups was an MVP candidate, the Media did. I guess Nash will win it again since TD is having a horrid year, Shaq has been hurt and noone else other than Billups and Dirk have really bene that special. I guess Kobe could get consideration but it's been a long time since a team with less than 50 wins won the title. On order to win you usually have to be on a contender, Billups right now is the best player on a team with the best record ala Nash, would I personally did not think deserved it.

where would Dallas be without the diggler?

bigbadred00 · Feb 21, 2006

Didn't I mention Dirk. I think if you read, I did. Billups and Dirk are the 1, 2 I think for my MVP.

mcsluggo · Feb 21, 2006

yeah, I missed it in your post.

I'm not hearing his name all that much in general, which seems odd for obviously the best player on a top-3 team.

Mike Bibby: Are the Numbers Misleading?

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