I know a lot of Kings fans (and possibly our front office which is unfortunate) would like to hold us to a specific timeline. Meaning we should be competitive by XYZ year.
THIS LINE OF THINKING IS WRONG. There is a time to start making moves that may help improve the team immediately and there is a time to stay patient. Looking at the current state of the team, we should be staying patient.
Unfortunately, many of you have this thinking that we need to be good by next year so the pick that is conveyed into 2019 isn't super valuable. My response to that is why would we sacrifice our future, our potential, & our ceiling as a team just so that another team (in the eastern conference may I add) doesn't get a super high pick? It's ridiculous. The trade is over with and done. We need to focus on how we maximize our ceiling and not worry about how it might look to outsiders.
There are others that think we need to be good in the short term because they are tired of watching us lose. I will be the first one to say that I don't enjoy watching us being a bottom dweller but what would be even harder for me to watch and accept is a team who chooses a path that will help them win more in the short term while it limits their ability to be a real threat down the road. I want my team to be successful. I want my team to win. But most importantly, I want my team to be on a path that leads them to being a top team in this league.
Looking over the roster, does anyone feel confident that any of our players are future stars/superstars/franchise players? I don't, but when I look at guys like Simmons and Mitchell, I get a different feeling. Looking down the roster...
- Fox hasn't had a bad rookie season but I also wouldn't say he's the savior of this franchise at this point
- Mason hasn't shown to have franchise player potential as he approaches 24 years of age
- Bogdanovic is not a dominating presence as he approaches 26 years of age.
- Hield's a good shooter/scorer but there are a lot of good shooters/scorers in this league, but it doesn't mean they have franchise potential. His age, athleticism, ability to take his man off the dribble, and ability to make plays for his teammates limits him when it comes to having franchise player potential
- Jackson hasn't shown much and looks to be a role player
- Labissiere has tools but isn't close to putting it all together right now.
- Giles is an unknown right now (hopeful unknown nonetheless)
- Cauley-Stein hasn't shown to have franchise player potential and is already approaching 25
I will say that I'm most hopeful for Fox & Giles with Bogdanovic & Labissiere being long shots, but as it stands right now, I don't think we can be confident about any of these guys.
So what does that mean? We need to continue to put ourselves in a position to add players that have the potential to be franchise players that also align with others in our core. What is the best way to do that you may ask? The draft. So what can we do to set ourselves up to draft a player that has a good shot at becoming a franchise player?
- Avoiding moves that help us win more when they don't help us in the long run (e.g., signing 30 year old veterans that would add more wins to our win total when they will not be around when the rest of our core hits their prime). This helps us keep our own wins down and thus net a better pick in the upcoming draft.
- Making trades that send out cap space in exchange for bad contracts and pick(s)/asset(s). Sure, the picks may not be very high or the young player we get back might not have franchise player potential, but when packaged with other assets, they can help you move up in a draft to increase your odds of finding a franchise level player (e.g., #15 & #20 for #10).
Considering we don't have confidence that any of the young guys are franchise players in the making, we need to be of this mindset. Hield & Cauley-Stein are fine players, but the Kings #1 priority is finding multiple franchise level players to build around. With this draft being so deep, I'd probably trade those two for ~10 players entering this draft.
The Pros?
- Another shot at a franchise player
- Open up another roster spot for more flexibility in future trades
- Avoid bleeding talent by losing Cauley-Stein & Hield in free agency in 1-2 years
- Or if we resign them, avoid using our valuable cap space on serviceable players when we don't even know who our franchise players are at this point when that cap space can be used as an asset in trades to increase our odds at finding a franchise player
The Cons?
- We lose a couple serviceable players that can play a role on a good team.
If we had multiple franchise players on this team, keep the serviceable players to help build around them but we're not at that point yet. That's putting the cart before the horse.
So you've been reading this far and you're probably thinking so what's this know-it-all's plan? What would he do? Well I'll tell you.
2018 Offseason
I'm going to assume that Shumpert, Koufos, & Temple all opt in to their contracts since I don't see them getting more on the open market (but perhaps they do because they'd rather have a long term contract). If we remove Caboclo's qualifying offer but add in our 1st and 2nd round pick next year, we'd have ~$19 mil in cap space and 14 guaranteed contracts for the year. If we were to do a Cauley-Stein & Hield trade for another 1st round pick this year, we'd have ~$24.5 mil in cap space and 13 guaranteed contracts for the year.
I'd immediately be reaching out to other teams in regards to taking on bad contracts that expire after the 2019-20 season for pick compensation. If no takers, I'd give a veteran minimum, 1 year deal to a third string PG and sign Caboclo to a 3 year $6-7 mil deal with the 3rd year being a team option. He's a low risk, high reward type player who has a freakish, athletic profile & is still only 22.
Hard to say who we will draft with the picks really not knowing how the order will shake out so I won't play through that hypothetical.
2018-19 Trade Deadline
After signing Caboclo, the veteran minimum PG, our two 1st round picks, and our 2nd round pick, we'd have 15 guaranteed contracts with ~$20 mil in cap space still. Considering Randolph, Shumpert, Koufos, Temple, & the veteran minimum PG are all expiring, we have tons of flexibility if any team is wanting to unload a contract that expires after the 2019-20 season for pick/asset compensation.
Also, at this point, I'm checking in on the team. Are we confident that we have at least two franchise players in Fox, Bogdan, Labissiere, Giles, or our two 1st round picks? If not, I'm most likely starting to think about upcoming deals for Labissiere, Mason, & Bogdanovic considering they are all up for a new contract in 1.5 years. Bogdanovic would be the least likely in this case considering I'm confident in him being the 3rd-4th best player on a great team but if we don't have those 1st-3rd players in front of him, what's the point? We need franchise players to be a top team.
2019 Offseason
This offseason, we'd have Randolph, Shumpert, Koufos, Temple, & the PG we signed with the veteran minimum come off the books. We'd have 12 guaranteed contracts if we sign all three of our 2019 2nd round draft picks and would approximately have ~$65 mil in cap space.
Similar to last offseason, I'd be seeing if I can pull off a salary dump deal that unloads contracts that expire after the 2019-20 season (basically a trade that allows a team to sign any current free agents) while also getting pick/asset compensation. If not, I'd sign a few veterans to act as mentors on 1 year deals (who also aren't good enough to affect our record in the upcoming season), and I'd try to vary the size of the deal (e.g., one would be $5 mil, one would be $7 mil, and one would be $10 mil) so that it allows us more flexibility for future trades.
Again, I'm also reassessing the team to see where we are at with our franchise players. Have any emerged or are we still stuck with none at this point? If it's the latter, I'm looking at potentially moving Labissiere, Mason, and/or Bogdanovic for future assets.
2019-20 Trade Deadline
I'm reassessing the team once again. Have we found our franchise players yet? I'd hope by now we know that at least two of Fox, Bogdanovic, Labissiere, Giles, and two 2018 1st round draft picks are going to be those franchise players we need. If not, I'm pushing a little harder to move Labissiere, Mason, & Bogdanovic in trades considering they would be getting a new contract after this season.
However, let's just say we have a few players emerge here as our franchise players, what next? I'd probably look at trading Labissiere & Mason if I feel like they are going to demand too much in their contract next year and I already have adequate replacements for them. Bogdanovic I'd keep he's already a good players that is versatile. Otherwise, I'm sitting tight with the players we got and wait until the offseason.
2020 Offseason
Now that we have much more confidence in a couple of our guys becoming stars/franchise players, it's time to build around them.
I'm hoping that at this time Fox (if not one of the franchise players) is a good starting PG and that means we can let Mason go if he is going to be too expensive or if one of our 2nd round picks (one 2018 2nd, two 2019 2nds, three 2020 2nds) is showing they can easily handle the role on a very cheap deal. Labissiere (if not one of the franchise players) may be let go depending on how talented he is and who else we have at his position already via our future draft picks. Bogdanovic would likely be resigned considering he's a good/solid SG today (thinking around $18-22 mil a year). Caboclo would have a team option this year which could be waived if he never panned out.
After resigning Bogdanovic and potentially letting Labissiere, Mason, & Caboclo walk, we'd have 13 guaranteed contracts with ~$42 mil in cap space. The roster would look like this:
PG - Fox
SG - Bogdanovic
SF - Jackson
PF -
C - Giles
*Two 2018 1sts
*One 2018 2nd
*Two 2019 2nds
*One 2020 1st
*Three 2020 2nds
Again, this roster is the assumption that we weren't able to execute any salary dump trades for more assets (highly unlikely), that at least two of these players have shown to be franchise players already, and the if we are unable to sign anybody with $42 mil in cap space (highly unlikely since it's a team that has a couple up and coming franchise players and bunch of other young assets).
