QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
Let's go Nuggies!!!
Kings Playoff Standings Watch!!!
- Thread starter Rain man
- Start date
bball_nomad
Bench
I like to simplify things. During the regular season teams have big differences in the road or home games played.
My analysis is simple: difference between road wins and home losses. Whatever difference is - it's going to be doubled after everything said and done in 82 games. For example, Kings have 16 road wins and 12 home losses. +4. If +4 is the number after 82 games, that means that kings will have 8 more total wins than losses. Thus record would be 45-37.
That was just a general simplification during the regular season. Right now Grizzlies have +6. Doesn't matter how many games are played. If both teams, Kings and grizzlies played the same amount of games, the same amount of home and road games, Grizzlies would have 2 more Ws than Kings.
Funny. Kings played 59 games already, this is going to be 59th game for the Grizzlies. So yes, Kings will be a clean 1 game behind the Grizz.
Grizz have the second best home record in the West while Kings have the best road record. That's tight. Though a pretty even balance is disrupted by the NBA's refs. Ja Morant (exceptional player) is the darling of the NBA, while Kings are a marked team. Last years trading away Hali by all talking heads was evaluated as a doom for the Kings, placing them in the bottom of the Conference with no chances of improving for the next 5+ years (because stat padding Domas Plumlee would be looking for the best contract in couple years and no way Sabonis would stay with the crappy Kings), while Hali would make immediate impact in Indy. Last season one person made an impact for the Pacers. new old head coach of Carlisle, whom I personally grade as C-. Nobody wants to look as a complete moron, especially NBA "experts". I think a W against clips yesterday made even the most fanatical blind mice to give up. Kings are good now and are getting better with every day. Talented, young, healthy, hungry. With the head coach, who surprisingly knows a thing or two. Babysitting LBJ and his talents is one thing, having fun coaching a team like Kings - you get it.
I'll cut it here. Grizzlies will be without Adams, Jokic will do his thing. Kings just need to do their thing. I hate Kings home record 18-12. 11 more games to play. Finish them at least 10-1. That would put us in the second place in the conference.
captain bill
All-Star
Do we need a game thread??
One of the best things about the Kings being good again is how much more enjoyable it is to watch neutral games. This time of year it's always so easy to tune out even the marquee matchups when we have no skin in the game
kingsfan101
Starter
I'll be rooting for the Pelicans against NY tonight. Normally, it would be good if an Eastern team beats a playoffs contending Western team (other than us of course 
), but I would like if Pels make the postseason at the expense of the Lakers. If so, not only do the Lakers lose, but since Pels have the right to swap picks, they don't even get a lottery pick out of their failure.
), but I would like if Pels make the postseason at the expense of the Lakers. If so, not only do the Lakers lose, but since Pels have the right to swap picks, they don't even get a lottery pick out of their failure.
I don't think there is any way the Pels fall out of the top side of the play-in. I assumed reading this they were close but they are currently 7 at .500. I expect them to get better if Zion is healthy. Of the teams currently 6/7/8 I'd prefer to avoid the Pelicans, so if we can hold the 3, I'd prefer they just stay away from 6 (Mavs and T'wolves are the other 2 here).I'll be rooting for the Pelicans against NY tonight. Normally, it would be good if an Eastern team beats a playoffs contending Western team (other than us of course
I'll be rooting for the Pelicans against NY tonight. Normally, it would be good if an Eastern team beats a playoffs contending Western team (other than us of course
Eh, maybe once we get a little better picture of where teams are going to end up, but I'm rooting for every east win over potential west opponents. Especially NOP, who I think if they get fully healthy have the best chance to go on a huge run and make a push for a top 6 slot. We want them to lose
Updated "Magic number 45 wins" that's mostly made up in my head but I would bet a reasonable amount of money holds a top 6 seed this year:
Kings: 11-13
PHX: 12-9
LAC: 12-8
DAL: 13-8
GSW: 15-7
MIN: 14-6
UTA: 14-6 (assuming they hold on and beat the Spurs tonight)
NOP: 15-6
OKC: 17-6
POR: 17-6
LAL: 17-5
Truly amazing what 2 quick wins, one vs your direct rival for playoff seeding can do for the playoff picture. They truly control their own destiny in their own hands and it's now to the point where GSW down have to play near perfect basketball from here on to make up that ground. And hell, who says the Kings can't finish a couple games better than 45 wins? 47 would be basically impossible for any of the 7 and lower seeds to catch.
I need to see a strong 2 weeks to stop worrying about falling out of the top 6, but everything is trending so nicely for us right now.
Kings: 11-13
PHX: 12-9
LAC: 12-8
DAL: 13-8
GSW: 15-7
MIN: 14-6
UTA: 14-6 (assuming they hold on and beat the Spurs tonight)
NOP: 15-6
OKC: 17-6
POR: 17-6
LAL: 17-5
Truly amazing what 2 quick wins, one vs your direct rival for playoff seeding can do for the playoff picture. They truly control their own destiny in their own hands and it's now to the point where GSW down have to play near perfect basketball from here on to make up that ground. And hell, who says the Kings can't finish a couple games better than 45 wins? 47 would be basically impossible for any of the 7 and lower seeds to catch.
I need to see a strong 2 weeks to stop worrying about falling out of the top 6, but everything is trending so nicely for us right now.
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The Kings now have to fight off the Thunder tomorrow A win tomorrow would give them the tie-breaker regardless of Tuesday.
Kings Magic number for #6? Go with 48 wins.
Kings need to go 14-9
Kings Magic number for f%k the Playins? Go with 41 wins.
Kings need to go 7-16
Currently 7 lower teams at the bottom 4 playin slots are separated by 2 games - that's a big log-jam. My only claims with certainty right now are: the Nuggets will make the Playins, and the Rockets and Spurs will not.
This may be the most parity-rich playoff finish in a long time....with maybe 8 teams finishing in the 40-49 win range......in what could be such tight standings, head to head tie-breakers take on extra importance.
Kings Magic number for #6? Go with 48 wins.
Kings need to go 14-9
Kings Magic number for f%k the Playins? Go with 41 wins.
Kings need to go 7-16
Currently 7 lower teams at the bottom 4 playin slots are separated by 2 games - that's a big log-jam. My only claims with certainty right now are: the Nuggets will make the Playins, and the Rockets and Spurs will not.
This may be the most parity-rich playoff finish in a long time....with maybe 8 teams finishing in the 40-49 win range......in what could be such tight standings, head to head tie-breakers take on extra importance.
LoungeLizard
Starter
I don’t see how #6 ends up at 48 wins unless it’s us at the 6 seed with 48. The Warriors would have to go 18-4 to reach 48. Jazz and Twolves 17-3, Pelicans 18-3, OKC and Portland 20-3, and Lakers 20-2. That just ain’t happening. I guess the Warriors with Steph back would be the only team that would have an outside chance at running off a stretch like that but highly unlikely. Plus, most of the west will be playing each other which will make it even more unlikely to post a record like that. I think Jamal is pretty close with his 45 estimate, could possibly be 46.
45 sounds right, I would be chocked if anyone not in the top 6 will get to 45 wins
Insomniacal Fan
Starter
As of today, there are 29 games between teams beneath our ranking in the west that are vying for a guaranteed playoff spot.
That's a critical game basically every other night, I bet whoever came up with the NBA schedule is celebrating.
Of those games, there are 11 that are Kings games
Excluding Kings games, there are 18 between other playoff contenders
Considering only that last group of games, I think it's still mathematically possible (if very unlikely) for the 6th seed to be at 50 games.
Kings games will shape the playoff picture; the road to the playoffs goes through Sacramento!
Markdown (GitHub flavored):
| gamedate | visitor | home |
|:-----------|:-----------------------|:-----------------------|
| 02-26-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors |
| 02-28-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 03-02-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-03-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-03-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-04-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-05-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Dallas Mavericks |
| 03-06-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-07-2023 | Utah Jazz | Dallas Mavericks |
| 03-08-2023 | Dallas Mavericks | New Orleans Pelicans |
| 03-11-2023 | Sacramento Kings | Phoenix Suns |
| 03-13-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-15-2023 | Golden State Warriors | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 03-20-2023 | Sacramento Kings | Utah Jazz |
| 03-22-2023 | Golden State Warriors | Dallas Mavericks |
| 03-24-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-25-2023 | Utah Jazz | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-25-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 03-26-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-27-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Utah Jazz |
| 03-27-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-28-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-29-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Phoenix Suns |
| 04-01-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | New Orleans Pelicans |
| 04-04-2023 | Sacramento Kings | New Orleans Pelicans |
| 04-05-2023 | Sacramento Kings | Dallas Mavericks |
| 04-07-2023 | Golden State Warriors | Sacramento Kings |
| 04-09-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Minnesota Timberwolves |
| 04-09-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | Phoenix Suns |Of those games, there are 11 that are Kings games
Markdown (GitHub flavored):
| gamedate | visitor | home |
|:-----------|:-----------------------|:---------------------|
| 03-03-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-04-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-06-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-11-2023 | Sacramento Kings | Phoenix Suns |
| 03-20-2023 | Sacramento Kings | Utah Jazz |
| 03-24-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-25-2023 | Utah Jazz | Sacramento Kings |
| 03-27-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Sacramento Kings |
| 04-04-2023 | Sacramento Kings | New Orleans Pelicans |
| 04-05-2023 | Sacramento Kings | Dallas Mavericks |
| 04-07-2023 | Golden State Warriors | Sacramento Kings |Excluding Kings games, there are 18 between other playoff contenders
Markdown (GitHub flavored):
| gamedate | visitor | home |
|:-----------|:-----------------------|:-----------------------|
| 02-26-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors |
| 02-28-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 03-02-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-03-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-05-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Dallas Mavericks |
| 03-07-2023 | Utah Jazz | Dallas Mavericks |
| 03-08-2023 | Dallas Mavericks | New Orleans Pelicans |
| 03-13-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-15-2023 | Golden State Warriors | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 03-22-2023 | Golden State Warriors | Dallas Mavericks |
| 03-25-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 03-26-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-27-2023 | Phoenix Suns | Utah Jazz |
| 03-28-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Golden State Warriors |
| 03-29-2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Phoenix Suns |
| 04-01-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | New Orleans Pelicans |
| 04-09-2023 | New Orleans Pelicans | Minnesota Timberwolves |
| 04-09-2023 | Los Angeles Clippers | Phoenix Suns |Considering only that last group of games, I think it's still mathematically possible (if very unlikely) for the 6th seed to be at 50 games.
Kings games will shape the playoff picture; the road to the playoffs goes through Sacramento!
With a win tonight it can be very important as both the suns and clippers will both have more than likely a tough night on the road. If we handled this game tonight and they both lose they will have 4 & 5 more loses than us and that will start to become a big problem for them With about 20 games left.
Looking at other teams schedules, only the Suns and Warriors schedules looked more difficult than the Kings, with the Clippers about equal. The other division teams have easier schedules. That isn't coincidence.
Tankathon has our remaining strength of schedule similar to most of our competition.
LAC- 3rd
Minnesota- 4th
Phoenix-5th
Sac- 6th
GS-9
The outliers are
Dallas-26
NO-29
Memphis- 30
The funny thing though, is that these rankings fluctuate a lot at this point in the season because there are so few games left. Each game impacts SOS so much. As an example, we were 16th before we played the back to back with Houston and then zoomed to 2nd after those two games. We were third before playing the Clips, and 6th afterward. So there is a lot of change.
But if we beat OKC we come home with a real advantage in the standings, and only 10 of 21 games on the road, and with no one having a huge schedule advantage on us (not one that would suggest making up 4-5 games in the loss column over 21 games).
All of that is to say, I am joining you guys on team “shoot for home court advantage!”
LAC- 3rd
Minnesota- 4th
Phoenix-5th
Sac- 6th
GS-9
The outliers are
Dallas-26
NO-29
Memphis- 30
The funny thing though, is that these rankings fluctuate a lot at this point in the season because there are so few games left. Each game impacts SOS so much. As an example, we were 16th before we played the back to back with Houston and then zoomed to 2nd after those two games. We were third before playing the Clips, and 6th afterward. So there is a lot of change.
But if we beat OKC we come home with a real advantage in the standings, and only 10 of 21 games on the road, and with no one having a huge schedule advantage on us (not one that would suggest making up 4-5 games in the loss column over 21 games).
All of that is to say, I am joining you guys on team “shoot for home court advantage!”
That's why I picked "Kings magic #48". At 45, other lower teams could still leapfrog - its less "magic". Any of those teams could go off for the needed run - there are 7 different teams still at this point. True magic numbers are really elimination numbers, so for 6 mathematically, 53 wins for the Kings would assure a 6th seed with certainty - 18-5. - very unlikely, but from this point would assure the final standing. Side-note If the Kings make 45 wins they'd eclipse the 2006 team final standing.
NewArena
All-Star
The Lakers always get a cupcake schedule around this time of year. It's amazing, really.
Insomniacal Fan
Starter
Outside of critical western conference games, Suns games are critical, they have the largest influence on the playoff high water mark.
So the Bucks loss is good! I think that moves the mathematical maximum down one
Letsgokings13
Starter
And Dallas chokes it away.
The Mavericks defense may be worse than the Kings and thats bad. They were up at least 24 pts in the 2Q. Loss also good for Kings.
Now Kings need to take it to the Thunder. Warriors/TWolves a wash, and better the Nuggets hand the Clips a loss to help keep them away.
rooting for the wolves to beat the warriors. If the warriors are 7/8 seed or out of the playoff picture it's less likely we'll have to face them.
Livinthedream
All-Star
Won't be any easy 1st round playoff series this year. Too much parity. Will need to look at match ups.
Chupacabra
Starter
I think this streak of no playoff appearances is a wrap. Of the next 3 teams behind us in the west, I don't believe that Dallas can make up a 4 game deficit to us within 22 games. That would mean guaranteed top 6 seed. Playoffs here we come! They will watch us on TV in late April and they will like it!
SLAB
Hall of Famer
This thread is SOOO much better than those we've been having to read the last 16 years towards the end of each season.
But what about Victor?!
LoungeLizard
Starter
He’ll force his way to Sac when his rookie deal expires.
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