Kings +/- Numbers Through 19 Games

[Bricklayer]

Alright, figured I'd use the break to put this one up. My favorite +/- site is defunct now (82games), and I'm not as comfortable withe the bball-ref and nba.com mechanisms. And through 19 games there are some headscratching results. Nonetheless, here are the numbers:

Via Basketball-reference, by "ORTG" and "DRTG":
OCasspi Off: +6.7 Def: -9.4 Tot: +15.9
Cousins Off: +4.9 Def: -9.3 Tot: +14.2
Cauley-S Off: +6.3 Def: -5.0 Tot: +11.4
McLemr Off: +9.6 Def: +2.0 Tot: +7.6
RudyGay Off: +2.2 Def: +0.5 Tot: +1.7
RRondo Off: -0.9 Def: +2.7 Tot: -3.6
Collison Off: +0.9 Def: +8.7 Tot: -7.9
Belinelli Off: -10.0 Def: +1.7 Tot: -11.7
KKoufos Off: -14.2 Def: +7.5 Tot: -21.6

----------------

Andersn Off: -8.5 Def: -4.2 Tot: -4.3
QuinAcy Off: +4.1 Def: +5.1 Tot: -0.9
CButler Off: -26.0 Def: +3.7 Tot: -29.8
SeCurry Off: +12.8 Def: -2.0 Tot: +14.9
Morelnd Off: +12.9 Def: +1.5 Tot: +14.4


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Backcourt Combinations (via NBA.com):
Rondo/McLemr: Off: 103.6 Def: 106.7 Tot: -3.1
Collisn/McLemr: Off: 104.7 Def: 109.5 Tot: -4.8
Rondo/Belinelli: Off: 100.2 Def: 106.7 Tot: -6.6
Rondo/Collison: Off: 101.6 Def: 108.5 Tot: -6.9
Collisn/Belinelli: Off: 100.0 Def: 109.1 Tot: -9.1

Boogie Synergy (via NBA.com):
Cousins/Cauley: Off: 105.8 Def: 102.8 Tot: +3.0
Cousins/Casspi: Off: 104.9 Def: 102.5 Tot: +2.5
Cousins/McLm: Off: 106.5 Def: 104.4 Tot: +2.1
Cousins/RuGay: Off: 104.2 Def: 103.7 Tot: +0.6
Cousins/Rondo: Off: 102.8 Def: 104.7 Tot: -2.0
Cousins/Collisn: Off: 103.6 Def: 106.9 Tot: -3.3
Cousins/Belinel: Off: 101.4 Def: 104.7 Tot: -3.4
Cousins/Koufos: Off: 99.5 Def: 105.4 Tot: -5.9

 

[DeMoN]

So apparently Casspi is the Mvp

 

[rainmaker]

This jumps out at me

KKoufos Off: -14.2 Def: +7.5 Tot: -21.6

Rondo/Collison: Off: 101.6 Def: 108.5 Tot: -6.9
Collisn/Belinelli: Off: 100.0 Def: 109.1 Tot: -9.1

Cousins/Koufos: Off: 99.5 Def: 105.4 Tot: -5.9

I was looking at lineups a few days ago and with that combined with this, and my eyes, the issue is DC/Rondo, usually accompanied by a combo of Marco/Omri/Rudy is just a terrible lineup, can't defend at all and leaves Koufas out to dry. He hasn't played poor defense, he's just out there with non-defensive lineups from hell.

 

[The_Jamal]

This jumps out at me

KKoufos Off: -14.2 Def: +7.5 Tot: -21.6

Rondo/Collison: Off: 101.6 Def: 108.5 Tot: -6.9
Collisn/Belinelli: Off: 100.0 Def: 109.1 Tot: -9.1

Cousins/Koufos: Off: 99.5 Def: 105.4 Tot: -5.9

I was looking at lineups a few days ago and with that combined with this, and my eyes, the issue is DC/Rondo, usually accompanied by a combo of Marco/Omri/Rudy is just a terrible lineup, can't defend at all and leaves Koufas out to dry. He hasn't played poor defense, he's just out there with non-defensive lineups from hell.

Yeah, this is a bit strange because he hasn't been close to as bad as these numbers suggest. The most likely reasoning is he replaces Boogie's spot on the court and got his minutes when Cousins was out (and we sucked). So of course there will be a dramatic drop-off when a top 10 player leaves the floor.

Casspi on/off lines up with what we see with our eyes; we're flat out just a better basketball team with him playing. Ben is a bit surprising, but that might be more of how bad the other combos have been rather than Ben making a major impact.

 

[Siranthony]

My feeling or hope is these numbers will change for the better. The team hasn't been playing much defense so far. Not until the last game.

 

[Kingston Jamaica]

So apparently Casspi is the Mvp

No, Casspi is not the MVP at all. It's not about that. However, for some reason that I don't quite understand why yet, Casspi's presence on the court appears to make the others play better. The game becomes more organized and the ball moves better. Probably a little more effort as well. I don't know yet if that is an illusion or a real factor, but based on the numbers here, it would be interesting to take a closer look at it. I'm too lazy to really dig into the stats, but I would be interested to see how many points are scored after more than 1 pass when he is on the court compared to without him. The problem is, that without proper stats things can be optical illusions. Personally I would like to see hard data.

There are some things that you start to pay attention to when you see a lot of games. Casspi seems to be the ultimate outbound passer. He makes very few mistakes in it. I can remember only 2-3 TO's from sloppy pass. After opponent basket, his outbound pass is also very quick and always looking for a fast break. Again, I don't know if it just a coincident or is it something the coach planned?

 

[Ron]

No, Casspi is not the MVP at all. It's not about that. However, for some reason that I don't quite understand why yet, Casspi's presence on the court appears to make the others play better. The game becomes more organized and the ball moves better. Probably a little more effort as well. I don't know yet if that is an illusion or a real factor, but based on the numbers here, it would be interesting to take a closer look at it. I'm too lazy to really dig into the stats, but I would be interested to see how many points are scored after more than 1 pass when he is on the court compared to without him. The problem is, that without proper stats things can be optical illusions. Personally I would like to see hard data.

There are some things that you start to pay attention to when you see a lot of games. Casspi seems to be the ultimate outbound passer. He makes very few mistakes in it. I can remember only 2-3 TO's from sloppy pass. After opponent basket, his outbound pass is also very quick and always looking for a fast break. Again, I don't know if it just a coincident or is it something the coach planned?

I believe it has to do with ball-sharing.
If I had the time I would have looked up the stats to back that up
(e.g. Ast% and Ast.Ratio with & without each Kings player, in the On/Off Advanced Stats, or something like that)

 

[Blob]

Any stat that would rate Ben as average (who has been mostly crummy), Omri ahead of Boogie and 2K that low relative to teammates is a suspect stat.

Real Plus Minus (ESPN.com) attempts to improve upon basic plus/minus and off/on stats. I think these stats while imperfect below tend to confirm more what my eyeballs tell me

Here's the definition and the list:

RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

RPM
(1) Boogie 2.79 (I expect this number to rise)
(2) Omri 1.57
(3) Rondo 0.73
(4) Willie 0.29 ( Our Top 4 guys have mostly been positive on the floor....the rest not so much)
(5) Koufos -0.41 (This placement relative to teammates more accurately reflects his play)
(6) Rudy -0.55 (Porous defense drags the Great Rudini into net negative territory)
(6) Ben -2.99 (Easily the most disappointing player on the team in my mind followed by #7)
(7) Marco -3.61 (Our SG position will keep us from making playoff run unless it improves or Seth continues to impersonate his brother)
(8) Darren -3.81 (DC is too fast and too good a shooter to stay down here....he's going to play a lot better as he rebounds from injury and adjusts to new role)

 

[Bricklayer]

Any stat that would rate Ben as average (who has been mostly crummy), Omri ahead of Boogie and 2K that low relative to teammates is a suspect stat.

Real Plus Minus (ESPN.com) attempts to improve upon basic plus/minus and off/on stats. I think these stats while imperfect below tend to confirm more what my eyeballs tell me

Here's the definition and the list:



RPM
(1) Boogie 2.79 (I expect this number to rise)
(2) Omri 1.57
(3) Rondo 0.73
(4) Willie 0.29 ( Our Top 4 guys have mostly been positive on the floor....the rest not so much)
(5) Koufos -0.41 (This placement relative to teammates more accurately reflects his play)
(6) Rudy -0.55 (Porous defense drags the Great Rudini into net negative territory)
(6) Ben -2.99 (Easily the most disappointing player on the team in my mind followed by #7)
(7) Marco -3.61 (Our SG position will keep us from making playoff run unless it improves or Seth continues to impersonate his brother)
(8) Darren -3.81 (DC is too fast and too good a shooter to stay down here....he's going to play a lot better as he rebounds from injury and adjusts to new role)

Real plus minus will also tell you that Mason Plumlee and Zaza Pachulia are better than Boogie, but using it this way, inter-team so that all the "ooh bad team = bad player!" fudging they do is negated, might have real value. Certainly the ratings above feel a lot like what we've been watching/dealing with.

 

[VF21]

No, Casspi is not the MVP at all. It's not about that. However, for some reason that I don't quite understand why yet, Casspi's presence on the court appears to make the others play better. The game becomes more organized and the ball moves better. Probably a little more effort as well. I don't know yet if that is an illusion or a real factor, but based on the numbers here, it would be interesting to take a closer look at it. I'm too lazy to really dig into the stats, but I would be interested to see how many points are scored after more than 1 pass when he is on the court compared to without him. The problem is, that without proper stats things can be optical illusions. Personally I would like to see hard data.

There are some things that you start to pay attention to when you see a lot of games. Casspi seems to be the ultimate outbound passer. He makes very few mistakes in it. I can remember only 2-3 TO's from sloppy pass. After opponent basket, his outbound pass is also very quick and always looking for a fast break. Again, I don't know if it just a coincident or is it something the coach planned?

Casspi is the character who gets best supporting actor year after year after year. He may not be the star, but he KNOWS his role and he makes the stars shine just a little brighter because of it.

 

[kingsboi]

too many numbers to comprehend

 

[SacTownKid]

Numbers can't even describe how valuable Casspi has been to the team.

I've never been a real fan of cumulative +/- numbers. I think they are valuable in short stretches or when viewed in context.