Kings Season Preview (Part 2)
Benchmark Stats For Our Top Guys
Giles can hold the basketball like a grapefruit. He has a 7’5” wingspan. He looks to be in incredible physical shape. Unlike Willie he does not shy away from contact. If the summer league is any indication he’s going to box out and go after the ball hard. This bodes well for him as a rebounder on the defensive glass. MB3 is a capable defensive rebounder too but better on the offensive boards. He doesn’t have the wingspan of Giles, but he gets off his feet as quick as any big man entering the league since Anthony Davis.
Is it conceivable that these rookies could average 15 rebounds per game between them? 7.5 rebounds per player or 8 RPG for one and 7 RPG for the other. I don’t care how they get it done, just that he ball gets gobbled up often by one of said players. This means they will be on the floor often and lesser players in my mind will be off. Second chances for the opponent will be reduced and second chances for us will be plentiful. Our third worst rebounding rate will be ancient history with Willie and Randolph no longer asked to do something of which they are clearly incapable.
MB3 and Giles can get 5 RPG in their sleep. Off missed free throws and uncontested misses and 15 minutes of playing time five boards per game is a near lock. 15 rebounds per game combined would signify substantial playing time, the trust of the coach and efficiency on the glass where it has been lacking post-Boogie. Suddenly games that get out of hand early when your shots are not falling are more manageable until you find a hot stretch. It is demoralizing to play 22 seconds of stingy D only to give up a second and third shot repeatedly. Bagley and Giles are the best candidates we have to put an end to this frustration.
Boggy averaged 11.8 PPG in his outstanding rookie season. Buddy averaged 13.5 PPG after a terrible start. Buddy averaged 15.7 PPG in 25 games after the All-Star break on 46% FGs and 44% on threes. He started to turn the corner on both ends and become the star player I anticipated him to become.
These sharpshooting forces need to get us 30 PPG or more combined for the season to unfold favorably. This will take the pressure off the bench and front court to produce where they are limited or incapable. As the case with MB3 and Giles and their 15 RPG, I don’t care how they get it done. Buddy may get 16 PPG, picking up where he left off, while Boggy boosts his scoring to 14 PPG. I would venture Buddy will be the more prolific scorer, since Boggy is the more willing and capable passer. Buddy is an underrated shot creator however, and I expect Boggy to look for his shot more often too, after he got physically and mentally fatigued last year.
Good teams define their primary scorers. Good teams don’t have five guys who get 10 PPG and no one gets 15 PPG or more. The Kings last year were led in points per game by Randolph with 14.5 PPG. That's a recipe for a poop sandwich with a side of poop. Of course you want balance. You don’t want to ask one guy to do it all and become predictable with declining efficiency. But you need to know who is your alpha. You need guys who cause gravity and force help. D-Fox can be the leading scorer on this team. He is a 20 PPG scorer in our league. He is a emerging force with with a steep developmental curve. MB3 can be a first option too. But these guys need seasoning. Until then Boggy and Buddy need to bear the scoring burden, demand the ball with a coach who supports this effort. This is a no brainer. Buddy is Buckets. Boggy is a pick and roll wizard, with a shot as pure as they come. Get them the damn ball.
Battle of the Bottom Dwellers
Vlade vowed to hold himself accountable. He vowed to get it done or get out. He said if he could not turn the team around two years from the Boogie trade he would bow out gracefully. The day of reckoning is fast approaching. If this was New York or Philly, he would be reminded of this promise often by the responsible (ruthless) members of the media.
In the realm of rainbows and teddy bears known as Kings media, he gets a pass from the fawning likes of Grant, James Ham, Sean Cunningham, Doug Christie and Gary Gerould. They could not be more sycophantic to a man who has not earned this regard. His performance is analogous to the end of a particular playoff game in which he prominently factored that will go without specificity. Let’s just say it did not “tip” in our favor.
Be careful what you wish for. You just may get it. There was a time I wanted Vlade gone. Not anymore. At the same time I know there are fans who want Vlade relieved from his duties after he passed on Luka and tried to give LaVine 80 million. I was of similar mind following the paltry return on the Boogie trade, the Randolph signing that I said was a “problem waiting to happen”at this time last year, and the selection of Jackson, when Kuzma and OG were on the board.
Vlade redeemed himself primarily with the pick MB3, chasing free agents I endorse (LaVine and Mario) and signing guys to prudent deals I think will help us (Yogi, Bjelica). We have cap space and we have hope. Unless we go small (Buddy, Boggy) or big (MB3, Belly) we have a hole at the three, but Rome was not built in a day.
Here’s the issue in this state of flux and potentially replacing the GM. It restarts the clock. It puts you back to square one. You are not going to find a new GM to tinker around the edges. He will want to do things his way. He will ride in on his white horse and implicitly proclaim himself a savior, if only granted trust and time. This fanbase has been patient long enough. The new GM will not have the same allegiance to this roster as the current GM. He will want to mold the team in his vision. He may not say he will blow it up to land the gig and the seven figures, but once he is a position of power, he will use that power. I can guarantee you that.
You do not climb the corporate ladder in any field without a healthy ego. You do not satisfy that ego by sticking with the decisions of your predecessor. You make bold moves so your ego can be stroked if and when you are proven prophetic. Vlade has been dubious at his job. But the alternative is more dubious. It is with cautious optimism Vlade should retain his position with Brandon by his trusted side, in lieu of a more appealing alternative. But the dude is still on the clock. He still needs to be judged objectively for his decisions and subsequent effect. His vow still needs to be honored.
One of the best ways to evaluate him and the progression of the rebuild, in addition to Ws and Ls and point differential, will be to contrast and compare the rebuilds concurrently occurring in Phoenix and Dallas. How are we going to rise to the daunting task of competing against the Lakers plus LeBron, the Pelicans plus Randle, the Thunder minus Melo, among other contenders, if we cannot definitively outclass the other “bottom dwellers” in the West?
It may sound like a modest goal to be better than the Suns or Mavs, but every national prognosticator expects them to be better than us. Of course this is to be expected. Until we earn the benefit of the doubt based on overwhelming evidence to the contrary, no quarter will be granted. When former Warriors front office man and current Hawks GM passed on Luka for Trae Young, it was deemed a bold and calculated move. When Vlade passed on the same player and proclaimed MB3 to be the superior talent and fit, it was deemed myopic, inexplicable and classic Kangz.
The Suns, Mavs and Kings will be inextricably tied for the foreseeable future as their respective fortunes grow or wither, as their respective cores become formidable or folly. This makes for fun. This makes for pseudo rivals and the league that much more compelling. I will not reiterate what is widely known to bind these teams. Instead, let’s proceed based on the premise that their respective success or lack thereof will be predicated on an eight player cores currently assembled.
The Kings have a bit of a head start with regards to being bad longer and having higher picks. The Kings should be better prospectively based on the quality of resources over time. For example the Kings had the #5 and #2 (Fox and MB3) in the last two drafts while the Mavs had the #9 and #5 (DSJ and Luka). The Suns have had higher picks with #1 with Ayton, Jackson #4 in 2017 and Bender #4 in 2016, but prior to this, the Suns have been competitive with their playoff run in 2014-15 (39-43 record) and appearance in 2013-14 (48-34 record). The Kings have not won 39 games since 2005-06 (14 seasons ago!). The bottom line is we have been at this rebuild thing longer. We should compare favorably by years end to two teams in the same boat as ourselves.
Mavs Core:
- DSJ
- Luka
- DeAndre Jordan
- Barnes
- Seth Curry
- Dirk
- Wes Matthews
- Powell
Suns Core:
- Ayton
- Booker
- Josh Jackson
- Bender
- Mikail Bridges
- Ariza
- Ryan Anderson
- Warren
Kings Core:
- D-Fox
- Buddy
- Boggy
- Giles
- MB3
- Skal
- Bjelica
- Yogi
I chose to exclude Willie and Jackson from our core. Until disproven, I think Willie and Jackson are pretenders. I anticipate their roles will be reduced or eliminated as better players take their minutes. I excluded Mason too. I like Frank, but I ran out of spots.
Whose core you got? The best coach is in Dallas. The best scorer is in Phoenix (Booker). I like our core the best. I like our core an awful lot. As an unbiased observer, wink wink, I think our core is potentially awesome and explosive. I like our speed, shooting and fundamentals. When next season ends, our GM needs to be able to point to this contrast of rebuilding teams, including his own, and say, “See, I did good.” If he can’t something is amiss. If he can, and other variables are in our favor, we are on our way to relevancy.
Play Like It Is 2001-02
Do you know what is the biggest unknown heading into 2018-19? Do you know what is the biggest obstacle between where we are now and where we want to be? Between collective frustration vs intermittent exhilaration? Between tediousness and manifestation of our highest potential? Between a possible playoff run and glorified scrimmages in the Spring of 2019? I think it is this coach. The wolf in sheep's clothing. It is his ego. His stubbornness. His undying love of the past, his loyalty to a washed up player, his inexplicable adoration of deliberate pace despite proclaiming otherwise, his insistence that his tedious imprint be felt for 48 ponderous minutes.
Joerger’s worst impulses are in the way of who D-Fox can be, who Buddy can be, and what this team can become. Yet hope springs eternal. Lesser impulses do not have to be followed. Constructive change is possible after a summer of introspection and enlightenment. This coach is fighting for his coaching life. He is fighting for career preservation. Does he want to die on the hill of Z-Bo, with a guy who cannot scale a phone book and acquires green leaf by the backpack full? Does he want to stay rooted to memories of the past or create something new and substantial? I would like to think a higher self will prevail and the coach and will convert his former star pupil with the smooth lefty flip into a role more aligned with present ability: mentor.
Giles and MB3 should be on the all-rookie team to end this season. They will be if Randolph gets out of the way by mandate of the coach who had his coming to Jesus moment. This doesn’t mean Randolph has to sulk, brood or cause waves. He can be valuable imparting his knowledge to the youngsters. It is not a bad way to earn $12 million once you admit your best days are behind you. Embrace this role and other roles click into place. The pace picks up. The ball moves. There is more wealth to be shared. For once, after a series of free agent mishaps, we could have two offseason signees who play their best basketball of their career, rather than collect a paycheck when more appealing destinations flamed out along with their skill level (see Affalo, Hill, etc).
Yogi and Bjelica came here to ball. They didn’t come to watch Z-Bo plod and pound, shoot 52% TS and be a mannequin on defense. D-Fox saw Dennis Smith Jr and Lonzo Ball get the keys to their teams as rookies. The keys were denied De’Aaron. Instead he watched Hill plod and pound. He watched Z-Bo plod and pound. He paid his dues in limbo. Set him free. Set the rookie bigs free. Set the free agents free. This coach holds the keys. Only he can unlock the cage. He cannot crack the door open a little. He has to swing it wide. If he tries to insert Z-Bo into the rotation, even 10-12 MPG, trouble beckons. Identity becomes muddled. Winnable games are forsaken and seasons unravel.
I am trying to envision a scenario where Randolph could play a valuable role off the bench. Nope. Don’t see it. The sooner this team is turned over to D-Fox the sooner we step into the future. We lucked our way into the 5th pick in 2017. We were not tempted to take a guy I think will prove to be a bust in the mold of Flynn or Mudiay. Lonzo was off the board and the best PG in the draft class fell into our laps. Fox is the future. We may as well make him the present and accelerate the path to the future. There is no place for Z-Bo in this context. If the coach tries to have it his way, fire him. I am opposed to getting rid of our GM. I have less patience for this coach. If he shows to be mired in his old ways 1-2 months into the season, hit the road Jack.
If Randolph does not want to accept a mentor role, if the coach wants to play him, the GM has no choice but to waive the player or fire the coach. It is in the best interest of all involved: the free agents, the rookies and the young vets. This is where Vlade got it wrong two summers in a row. It is not the GMs job to appease the coach and get him the players he wants. It is the GMs job to acquire players per his vision. It is the coaches job to coach the players that the GM acquires. This division of responsibility is mandatory for success. We saw what happened with acquisitions of Barnes, Carter and Z-Bo. These were Joerger requests dutifully fulfilled by a neophyte. No former Grizzlies were pursued or acquired this summer. Progress, my friends, progress.
Synergy manifests when ego gets out of the way on behalf of the coach and players, when the moment is embraced for the collective purpose and good. Boogie restricted this with his volatility. This coach may restrict this with his insistent style. We will see. When there is no undermining forces and the talent and passion coalesce, magic becomes possible. We witnessed this during the Adelman Era with C-Webb, Bobby, Peja, Bibby and yes Vlade. Vlade remembers this magic. So do long suffering fans. We can return to this brand of basketball if the involved parties are dedicated and united. This season can be scintillating if the aforementioned goals are pursued, if the preceding cautions are heeded. It is time for the Kings to fight and win, take no prisoners, show no mercy, or at least be valiant in defeat. New names will then secure their rightful place among the pantheon of greats, new stories written, new memories forged and new legacies earned. Game on.
Once I gather the GIFs I will post in full probably tonight.
