Kings 2008-09 Season Preview

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
I thought Kingsfans should have one of these, in particular for non-local area fans who do not get the benefit of the Bee's big pullout section or whatever and need a season primer.

Center

Brad Miller returns for yet another season as the presumed starter (his 6th with the Kings), although his debut is going to have to wait 5 games after he got himself suspended over the summer for smoking a funny smelling weed. He had himself a bounceback season last year, getting in shape and largely returning to form after several years of decline. That of course means a sweet passing and shooting center who struggles to play in the post and cannot defend. With the suspension looming his preseason minutes were limited, but he looks to be in shape again and could have another strong season. Age is creeping up on him however (he is 32), he is injury prone, and he has no athleticism to spare. Backing him up, and starting the first 5 games in his stead will be young Spencer Hawes, who when not running screaming across the parking lot at the sight of Greg Oden had himself an impressive preseason. He has the post game that Miller lacks, if he can be convinced to actually use it instead of drifting outside for jumpshots. If he continues coming into his own during his 5 game audition while Miller is out, look for him to steal minutes not only from Miller, but also from the shaky PFs as Coach Theus experimented with playing Hawes and Miller together during the preseason. It is also possible that strong play by Hawes may also make Miller expendable as midseason trade bait in furtherance of the teamwide youth movement. PFs Mikki Moore and Jason Thompson (both tall enough but not strong enough) and Shelden Williams (strong enough but not tall enough) can also fill in as needed.

Power Forward

Mikki Moore returns for his second season as the presumed starter at PF, although whether his starting role, or even place on the team, will last the whole season remains to be seen. Moore defines the word journeyman in the NBA, having played for 8 different teams in his 10 years in the league. While lacking in individual talent and physical strength, he keeps finding work by knowing his role and being active while playing off the ball. With an affordable contract with a partial buyout clause for next season, he is another older player who could end up with a new address by the end of the season if a contending team comes looking for frontcourt reinforcements. First round pick Jason Thompson will presumably be the main backup at PF. He is an extremely mobile player for his size (6'11" 250lbs) that looked a little lost in his preseason appearances. It was hoped that as a 4 year college player he might be able to step right in and be ready for major minutes from day one, but its apparent that the jump from small college (Rider University) to the NBA is going to take some time. In the short term his main value seems to be as a hustler and rebounder. Former #5 overall pick Shelden Williams returns for a second season with the Kings, and may also be able to steal some minutes against certain matchups (those involving brute strength). Its apparent at this point that a lack of quickness, jumping ability, and fluidity will likely prevent him from ever justifying the high draft position, and in fact the Kings declined to pick up the fourth option year on his contract. He remains the team's strongest player, however, and during preseason showed flashes of strong post defense against bigger players who rely on strength rather than speed. Kenny Thomas also returns as the gift that keeps on giving, and the less said about that the better. He was seeing some rotation minutes during the preseason, and its possible there may be a danger of him stealing minutes from the younger players. As always the thing he has always been able to do is rebound and excel at his role as the least flexible "flexible piece" in league history. Shareef Abdur-Rahim mercifully retired during the offseason after missing almost the entire season last year with deteriorating knees.

Small Forward

With Ron Artest traded during the offseason, John Salmons steps in as the Day 1 starter, a change that should be much to his liking. The book on Salmons has long been that he plays much MUCH better as a starter than off the bench, and last year he averaged over 17 points a game in his half season starting. With Artest gone he is also now the team's best (only?) perimeter defender. The questions about Salmons center around perceived selfishness, whether it be his tendency to pound the ball endlesslessly and force tough shots in traffic rather than pass to teammates, or his seeming tendency to sulk when sent to the bench. His having a strong season duplicating his success as a starter last year is vital to any hopes the Kings may have. If focused and playing team ball, he is likely to be the #2 offensive option behind Kevin Martin. Francisco Garcia figures to be the main backup at both the SF and OG positions after signing a long term extension in the offseason. A very passionate player who does a bit of everything, and can be a lights out shooter from downtown, Garcia's weaknesses are inconsistency and bouts of wildness and poor decisionmaking. He can be the most exciting player on the floor...for both teams. Equally capable as a starter or reserve, if Salmons is moved during the season Garcia figures to be able to shift smoothly into the starting lineup. Young project player Donte Greene, acquired in the Artest deal, may be the future of the Kings at this position. But if he is, that future is still some way off, and Greene may have a hard time staying on the 12 man active roster until he works the kinks out of his game. If he ever does, he projects out as tall athletic player with effortless three point range. It should be noted that late in the preseason Coach Theus was experimenting with Jason Thompson at the SF position, so against certain matchups its possible that the team might go with a very big lineup.

Off Guard

The good news is that Kevin Martin returns as the undisputed #1 option and best player on the team. The bad news is that Kevin Martin returns as the undisputed #1 option and best player on the team. With a game that more resembles that of a sidekick than a superhero, Martin nonetheless will enter this season as the face of the franchise for the Kings. Already a potent scorer, he might very well break 25 points a game this year as the focal point of the offense and figures to be amongst the league scoring leaders. Efficiency may suffer however, and how far Martin can carry the Kings is likely to depend on how well he is able to do the other things with which he is less adept -- setting up teammates, defending, and making everybody else better. Quincy Douby gets second billing here, but in truth is likely no more than 3rd or even 4th on the depth chart at the position, and could be one of the players sometimes left off the 12 man roster. Like Shelden Williams, the Kings declined to pick up the option year on Douby's contract as well, and his future role on the team is uncertain. The problem remains that while occassionally offensively explosive, he is basically a very small (6'3" 175lb) OG and has never been able to really learn the PG position which his size suggests. Ahead of him Francisco Garcia (as the main OG backup) and John Salmons from the SF positon, as well as Beno Udrih, Bobby Jackson, and Bobby Brown from the PG position, all have the ability to swing over for OG minutes.

Point Guard

Beno Udrih signed a longterm deal during the offseason to be the Kings starting PG and looks to have no serious challengers for the spot. More solid than spectacular, Udrih nonetheless can get on hot streaks where he will dominate a game for a quarter or more. His leadership will be critical to any success the Kings might have, and while he has a nicely rounded offensive game he has to concentrate on getting others involved as there is precious little passing on this Kings team. His problems include quickness issues when trying to guard the league's darts at PG, and a career long battle against injuries that the Kings can ill afford. Bobby Jackson is back! Bobby Jackson is back! In what qualifies as exciting news in a season where there may not be much success in the win column, beloved fan favorite Bobby Jackson was reaquired during the offseason as part of the Ron Artest deal. A fearless attack dog on the court back in his (and the team's) prime, Jackson also was one of the truly nice guys around the league off of it. At 35 he is not the player he once was on the court, and may contribute more to the team with his veteran leadership than actual play. As always with Jackson, staying healthy for a full season will be part of the challenge. A new Bobby -- rookie Bobby Brown -- will compete with Jackson for the backup minutes. Lightning quick, he is another shoot first type of PG who needs to find ways to get others involved if he wants to secure himself consistent minutes.

Coaching
Reggie Theus returns to the sidelines after a tumultuous first season that saw flashes of real coaching ability intermixed with disputes with nearly every member of the Kings, player or front office. Trapped in a win now, play the veterans mentality, he often seemed to be out of step with a front office finally creaking into a true rebuilding mode. Theus had the team playing hard though, at least for part of the season, and his focus on defense and post play sounds good on paper. During the preseason he announced that the Kings would be trying to integrate the triangle offense (of Phil Jackson/Tex Winters fame) into the attack, but there was little evidence of it on court. Key for Theus this year will be checking his ego at the door and getting his team to want to play for him. Another long season filled with disputes and drama could have him exiting stage left at the end of the year (his contract expires at season's end, and the front office chose not to extend him during the offseason).
 
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Offense
Kevin Martin figures to be the unquestioned ruler of the Kings offensive roost this season and should be able to put up big point totals, although not always in a winning cause. Most of the rest of the punch also comes from the swingmen positions, as John Salmons and Francisco Garcia figure to combine with Martin to produce 50 points or more out of the SF/OG positions. When Beno Udrih and Brad Miller have their passing hats on, there may be enough ball movement to make this team potent offensively. When they do not, a repeat of last year's last in the league assist to turnover ratio is possible. Last season this crew actually did pretty well on the offensive side of the ball, but the preseason was a struggle, and its possible that the loss of Ron Artest's 20pts a night and inside muscle might outweigh any benefit gained from better ball movement without Artest dominating the ball. An x-factor could be Spencer Hawes, who if he continues his development might be able to give this Kings team some inside scoring to balance what otherwise is shaping up to be a very finesse/perimeter oreiented offense once again.

Defense
What do you get when you remove the best defender from an already struggling defensive crew? Trouble. This is the side of the ball where real improvement needs to come from in order for there to be any chance of success this season. Last season the Kings allowed 104.8 points per game (24th in the league) and during preseason that number soared to 105.8 points. The problems are myriad, and with Ron Artest now playing in Houston, there is no obvious defensive captain to rally the troops. In no particular order the Kings lack shotblocking, rebounding, perimeter defense, and quickness at the PG position. Of the starters only John Salmons can be said to be a strong defender, and as a scary game against Houston and Artest in the preseason showed, he may struggle against some of the power matchups at SF this season. Up front neither Brad Miller nor Mikki Moore is a shotblocker, and hopes that Jason Thompson might be able to translate his small school defensive success to the NBA thus far look unrealized. With Shelden Williams undersized, once again the team may be relying on Spencer Hawes to somehow save them in this regard, and he is not a natural shotblocker. On the perimeter Salmons is solid, but Udrih will always be hampered by a lack of footspeed, and the real improvement has to come from Kevin Martin, who has the quickness to be a much better defender than he has shown thus far. Off the bench Francisco Garcia provides mistake prone defensive hustle and Bobby Jackson's mind is still willing, although the body is another issue. Quincy Douby might be able to help a bit if he could ever get on the floor. Last season Coach Theus tried to cover up the weaknesses by playing a lot of zone, but the results obviously were not that great. Minus Artest the hope is going to have to come from the greater size of the young frontline guys on the Kings roster making an impact, if they can get settled into the NBA game.

Overview
A variety of national publications have weighed in on the Kings chances, many of them are summarized here. They are almost universal in expecting a 25-32 win rebuilding season this year. Kings fans, not surprisingly, hope for a little better, as a poll taken here shows (although the poll was taken before the preseason), with the majority hoping for a 30-41 season, and a few holding out hope for a sneak into the playoffs. As a team in transition much will depend on how quickly the Kings gel, and whether the focus will again be on playing the remaining vets every possible minute in an attempt to win as many as possible, or on playing the younger players in an attempt to develop them. There figure to be nights when the offense will click and the Kings will be able to score and run with the best teams, but a lack of consistent passing and post play make the team less well suited for half court wars. Defense and rebounding figure to be season long issues for the Kings, with the best hope for a solution lying in the developmnet of their young bigs. I predicted 36 wins before the preseason started. After seeing how we played in those games I would probably like to adjust that downward a few games, which would not necessarily be the worst thing for a rebuilding team trying to stockpile young talent. This season is really more about 09-10 and beyond than it is about immediate success. You have to lay down a foundation before you can build a house.
 
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Just saw NBATV review of Kings we are actually getting publicity and "The Czar" says the Sacramento Kings have hope for a great future as long as the frontcourt develops nicely.

Also said salmons should come off the bench.....:eek:

Reggie also said the goal of the big picture is to develop the team..
 
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Well done, Brick. I liked some of the zingers you threw in - only funny because they are so true.
 
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