I mentioned this in one of the post-game threads, I haven't been able to watch the Kings much to start off the season, but I've caught a lot of highlights and I'm planning on purchasing league-pass to watch replays. Anyways, I think our absolute ceiling is 45wins. However, there is a lot of obstacles in our way.
- Can the young players sustain this pace 40 games into the season? We're playing a very up and down game. However, I think fatigue will start to settle in before we hit the mid-point of the season. We have young players on this team who haven't been pushed to that limit, and I think it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to sustain this type of performance with this pace 40 games into the season. I think we'll see a lot of tired bodies. Tactically, the biggest reason why we are winning these games is because we're outgunning the opponnets.
- Will we play better defense? Finishing up the thought I said above, our defense has been pretty poor. Not sure if the stats from ESPN include the Miami game yet, but it says we give up 120ppg which is 3rd worst. We also give up 34.3 3pa/game which is the 4th most. Our DefRTG is 19th best. We'll really need to start tuning things defensively if we want to reach 45wins.
- Can the young players sustain their play? We went into this season unsure about which player would take the big step in their game to lead our offense. Fox has arguably taken the biggest step as our leader, but that's not to discredit the great improvements we've seen from WCS and Hield. However, the biggest question is how much can we take away from this 7 game sample size? Can these players do it on a consistent basis? Can they step up when the team needs them to? So far, we haven't had a moment where one of them completely takes over a game.
- Can the bench contribute effectively? I think Frank has done a good job so far as our backup PG. Bogi could be a real answer to help improve our bench. Games are also won with 2nd units. Right now, they're on the unproven end.
- Do we have a real SF on the roster? This is the biggest question mark for us. Iman Shumpert has done everything that's been asked of him so far, but his time in Cleveland paints him as a very inconsistent player. While he's a very strong player, he is slightly undersized. Is Justin Jackson the answer? His shooting consistency is not very good at the moment. I wouldn't say that we ask very much of him, but from what we've seen so far, he's not the answer right now. Is Bogdanovic the answer? Not sure about that either. I think he can play stretches at SF, but he faces the same problem Shump does in terms of size.. he just doesn't have it when you're talking about going up against the likes of Lebron, Durant, or Harris.
- Where does Bogdanovic come in play? I might be the only one trying to see where he'll fit on our team. There's no doubt that he improves our team, but if you place him with Fox, Buddy, Bjelica, and WCS, is there any gurantees that he won't disrupt any of the chemistry that they've developed? Remember, he's been rehabbing his injury since Summer before training camp. Bogdanovic is also more of a ball handler, which means he might take the ball out of Fox's hands. If we can slot him in as our starting SF without disrupting the chemistry, I'm 100% for that, although I'm not sure that he won't. I think we should bring him off the bench until the starters show that they need help on offense. We're only 4-3, but that's our best start in a long time. There's the saying of..."if it aint broke, don't fix it". I honestly think we'd be better off with a legitimate 3&D SF than a playmaking SF in the starting lineup.
I think if we were somehow able to add a proven 3&D SF on this team without giving up a key player, we might be able to capture 8th seed.
1. Opponents will get tired too. The key is bench improvement, so startets do not have to play heavy minutes. KK and Bogdan back can mitigate the issue.
2. Kings need to improve defense and I am sure they will. However, you have to consider pace when you compare defense between teams. Teams that play faster will on average score more and also give more points. We had that disscussion about glory days team too. They were actually pretty good on defense, while playing fast compared to the rest of league at the time.
3. I think they will improve, especially our rookies.
4. With everyone healthy we might add KK and Bogdan or Budy to the bench. We could also trade expiring contracts (ZBo, McL, Shumpert, KK) for good slightly overpriced SF (Porter).
5. Aside from the trade, I think Shump is good enough 5th option on offense and good defender. Bjeli is capable of defending bigger SFs. Joerger is good in using matchups.
6. I trust Joerger. Bogdan will be great addition to already good squad. The coach will find the best combination, and it might vary depending on matchups.
In addition to that, Kings are on a way of winning 46 games this year, based on current winning ratio against mostly good teams. However, teams will start scouting up and comming team, so I don't think the record will be that good.
