Agree and Disagree
While I agree with you that this is the year we are most likely to draft a big, I still think Hilton would be a terrible pick. From what I've read, he consistently underachieved his first three years at UConn before having his best year by far this last season. However, look at the actual statistics:
9.7 pts 6.6 rbs .7 asts 2.3 tos 3.1 blks
First off, with the exception of blocks, these numbers are very poor for college. 6.6 rebounds per game in college does not bode well for his NBA potential. Also, he had 3 turnovers per assist. Essentially, he might become a shot blocking PF/C who can't rebound, score anything other than a dunk, or handle the ball. Don't we already have Jamal Sampson? Sampson averaged 6.5 pts and 6.4 rbs a game as a freshman before he declared for the draft.
Another important indicator of a players abilities is how he performed against teams with potential NBA players at his position. In other words, did a player like Armstrong pad his stats dominating weak competition or was he still able to perform playing aganst the types of players he would face nightly in the NBA.
Again Armstrong fails this test. Armstrong had some great games against no name teams. For example:
Stony Brook - 11 pts, 11 rbs, 8 blks
Quinnipiac - 26 pts, 10 rbs, 2 blks
Providence - 16 pts, 12 rbs, 3 blks
So against UConn's weakest competition he averaged:
17 pts, 11 rbs, 4.3 blks
In fact, all of his double doubles came against weak competion.
So how did he do against real competition:
Gonzaga - 5 pts, 7 rbs, 5 blks (Batista had 19 and 8)
LSU - 11 pts, 3 rbs, 4 blks (Thomas had 15 and 13)
Pitt - 5 pts, 7 rbs, 3 blks (and Gray put up 23 and 12)
West Vir. - 15 pts, 3 rbs, 1 blk (Pittsnogle has 15 and 3)
George Mason - 8 pts, 5 rbs, 4 blks (Thomas has 19 and 12 and UConn is eliminated from tourney)
So against Centers who might get drafted and in UConn's elimination game he averaged:
8.8 pts, 5 rbs, 5 blks
While the players he was guarding averaged:
18.2 pts, 9.6 rbs (and only one of them is a likely 1st round pick)
Factor in all the times he dissapeared againts poor competition as well and I'll have to say "pass" on Armstrong. I understand his appeal, since this draft is very weak for big men. However, in most seasons he would be a very late first round pick or more likely a second round pick. I don't think his one mediocre season justifies the selection. Petrie is going to have to use free agency and trades to get us the big men we need.
If you want to double check my statistics:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=11222