Wizz, lac, spurs, hou and mem are lock in. They have depth to survive injury bug.
Durant has to prove he is his old self before okc are lock in.
That leaves 7-8 spot in play for older weaker Dallas, not-improved injury prone pelicans, mystery phoenix, very very young Utah team, shell of portland and us.
Baring collapse, i would only put pelicans ahead of us.
Lal, wolves and nuggets are not quite in the contest.
I see 7 locks (not in that order):
1. GSW
2. Houston
3. Clippers
4. SAS
5. OKC- they won 45 games (tied with 8th seed for wins) in a season without Durant and with Westbrook out for some time, they are a lock.
6. Memphis
7. New-Orleans- 45 wins last year with a lot of injuries, upgraded greatly at coach.
The field after that is a little weird... on paper we should be in the running for the 8th seed but if I had to bet I'll take the Jazz at 8th.
But there are a lot of teams that can make some noise if things go well (and I'll put us at the top of that group):
The Mavs lost both Chandler and Ellis, but Zaza is an OK center and if Matthews and D-Will rebound their career this team can be very good under Carlisle.
The Suns seems to be bound for another season in the 40 wins zone and can maybe reach higher if they resolve the Morris situation and Knight proves worthy of the trade.
And even the last 4 bad teams looks competent:
The Nuggets have some nice pieces and if Gallinari can regain is old form they have a nice group of players (Nurkic, Faried, Hickson, Chandler, Barton, Nelson and Mudiay) that with the help of the altitude and a coach named Malone can get a good amount of wins.
Portland got an all-star PG and some decent vets around him (Henderson, Aminu, Davis and Kaman) and some intriguing young talent (McCollum, Harkless, Vonleh, Leonard and Plumlee).
The Timberwolves are a sleeper imo... they got some proven players there in Rubio, Miller, K-Mart, KG and Pekovic to go with an amazing amount of young talent in Wiggins, KAT, Dieng, Muhammad, LaVine, Tyus Jones, Bennett and Payne and to euro prospects in Rudez and Bjelica (reigning Euroleague MVP). with a coach (who is also the GM) that is known for wanting to win even at the expense of the future- they can win some games!
And even the Lakers looks like they won't be complete bottom dwellers- call me crazy but a starting five of Clarkson-Kobe-Swaggy-Bass-Hibbert with Lou-Will (sixth man of the year) as the 6th man and Russell/Randle from the bench intrigues me.
Those last 4 teams will almost certainly won't be in the playoff run... but they aren't bad, the west is going to be super tough this year.