DeAaron Fox - meeting expectations?

[sactowndog]

Well advanced stats are pretty favorable to Lonzo Ball despite his scoring short comings so far.

On the other hand, they are extremely unkind to Fox and they project him to have high bust potential. I don't think people realize how far he has to go to even become an average player. To become a franchise player? He's basically going to have to climb Mt. Everest.

The main difference between Lonzo and Fox is court awareness.

Lonzo averages 7.1 assists to Fox’s 4.3. Kuzma averages 4.4 catch and shoot attempts versus 2.7 for Bogdan and 3.0 for Buddy. Both Bogdan and Buddy are better 3 point shooters than Kuzma.

Also defense is as much as making the right switch and/or show. Knowing when to help off your man and when not to. In these areas, Fox has some growth to do. With his size he should be able to switch 1-3.

 

[Kingsfan23]

While I still support De’Aaron as a pick and future piece, I don’t appreciate the non aggressive lulls.. it’s almost like he knows it’s a wasted season and is sparing himself tread on the tires, in addition to the fact that he’s not being given the green light

 

[ESP47]

That's odd because the Eye Test tells me Fox plays well. Defenses change the way they defend the Kings by keying on Fox. Fox is also a good defender.

These advanced stats, what are they telling you in specifics? I'm not that familiar with them. Is there a site that defines them?

I found NBA Advanced Stats For Dummies --> http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-dummies-how-to-understand-the-new-hoops-math

VORP on basketball reference. RPM on ESPN. He's also one of the worst in the points per shot statistic.

He doesn't pass the eye test at all to me. I'm not saying he doesn't have a shot to be a good player in the future but I don't think he has #1 or #2 potential. He doesn't have any moves to get by his man in the half court and doesn't use screens very well. Remember how Donovan Mitchell just got into the paint at will against us? That's because he knows how to use screens and has moves to be able to get his defenders off balance.

Fox normally just runs past a screen, then picks up his dribble and turns around and passes the ball back to the screener. Usually when he gets 5 assists, 3 or 4 of them are just of the pass the ball back to the screener and let them shoot it variety. He doesn't set his teammates up all that well at all. Pay attention to how different it looks when Frank Mason is in the game. He gets into the paint and kicks the ball out much more than Fox does. He just isn't real effective because he's so short.

Advanced stats aren't normally kind to players on bad teams but you know it's bad when you're the worst on one of the worst teams. It's just what Fox is good at is such a small part of the NBA game. He's great at using his speed in transition. The other 95% of the game consists of what he isn't very good at. Point guards always take a little extra long to develop but Fox has an extra long ways to go in comparison to the other top PGs of the league.

 

[sactowndog]

VORP on basketball reference. RPM on ESPN. He's also one of the worst in the points per shot statistic.

He doesn't pass the eye test at all to me. I'm not saying he doesn't have a shot to be a good player in the future but I don't think he has #1 or #2 potential. He doesn't have any moves to get by his man in the half court and doesn't use screens very well. Remember how Donovan Mitchell just got into the paint at will against us? That's because he knows how to use screens and has moves to be able to get his defenders off balance.

Fox normally just runs past a screen, then picks up his dribble and turns around and passes the ball back to the screener. Usually when he gets 5 assists, 3 or 4 of them are just of the pass the ball back to the screener and let them shoot it variety. He doesn't set his teammates up all that well at all. Pay attention to how different it looks when Frank Mason is in the game. He gets into the paint and kicks the ball out much more than Fox does. He just isn't real effective because he's so short.

Advanced stats aren't normally kind to players on bad teams but you know it's bad when you're the worst on one of the worst teams. It's just what Fox is good at is such a small part of the NBA game. He's great at using his speed in transition. The other 95% of the game consists of what he isn't very good at. Point guards always take a little extra long to develop but Fox has an extra long ways to go in comparison to the other top PGs of the league.

Yeah, I have been wondering why the Kings defense is so bad so I have taken to rewinding the opponents offensive possessions to see where the breakdown occurred and far too often the breakdown is Fox. He seems to have no concept of team defense.

 

[ESP47]

Yeah, I have been wondering why the Kings defense is so bad so I have taken to rewinding the opponents offensive possessions to see where the breakdown occurred and far too often the breakdown is Fox. He seems to have no concept of team defense.

Yep the defense breakdowns usually consist of Fox getting caught behind screens, ZBo not guarding anyone, WCS not guarding stretch big men and the rest of the team incessantly guarding the mid range instead of staying close enough to close out on 3 point shooters. I think a lot of the latter is Joerger's system.

 

[PHXSUNSFAN]

That's odd because the Eye Test tells me Fox plays well.

 

[Joshoua]

Bill Billchick says stats are for losers

 

[Larry David]

Fox’s FG% inside the paint is in the 60s. Outside the paint, it’s in the 30s. He needs to learn how to make better decisions running an offense and play much better defense, but if he doesn’t significantly improve his shot it’s going to hard for him to excel. He’s an attacking PG with tons of speed and teams will give him room, go under screens and otherwise dare him to shoot. It’s very possible that he learns to shoot and becomes willing and able to defend. So, at this point, he has clear issues to work through.

He can still become an elite player. Because his weakness are pronounced and long term fixes, I think it’s debatable whether he’s an elite prospect. Still a great prospect, but perhaps not a blue chipper AT THIS TIME

 

[King Baller]

This coming from a Suns fan? Tell me about Elfrid's numbers?

 

[sactowndog]

Yep the defense breakdowns usually consist of Fox getting caught behind screens, ZBo not guarding anyone, WCS not guarding stretch big men and the rest of the team incessantly guarding the mid range instead of staying close enough to close out on 3 point shooters. I think a lot of the latter is Joerger's system.

You left out the switch failures where too often the kings fail to switch appropriately leaving 1 player wide open.

 

[John Galt]

I was watching the Blazers game last night and said "I bet Fox has just plain hit the wall". I'll be interested to see whether he can catch a second wind, but I think that horse is fading for this season. Which is fine for tanking too, and I'm not worried about him going forward.

 

[jcassio]

He's going to have to develop moves to be able to get by guys. He's too easily stymied in the half court because he has no go to moves. I think he's so used to being able to just blow by guys due to his speed that he never really developed a tight handle for off the dribble moves because he didn't have to. Now that he's in the NBA and he can't just run around guys, he's finding it difficult to create anything in the half court.

What's John Wall's go-to move?

 

[jcassio]

Why would Ryan West float a rumor of #5 and #10 for #2 if he wanted Fox?

All they had to do was take Fox.

A GM is paid to ignore to the collective will of the masses.

Remember when Geoff Petrie was booed off the stage for taking Peja instead that kid from Syracuse who amounted to nothing?

Ignoring what the fans want and doing what is best for the franchise is why the GM makes the big bucks.

Magic and whats-his-face bet on Lonzo Bust becoming a great player and better than De'Aaron and so far that is looking like a losing bet.

There's a reason Lonzo Bust returned to bench role after he healed. The Lakers are ROLLING with Ingram and Randle initiating.

I love those guys as players, two players we could have had in exchange for Boogie if Vlade did not have fear of the phones!

Jerry was gushing about Randle and Ingram last night and rightfully so. They are ballers. They are potent and dynamic scoring threats whereas Lonzo Bust is looking to launch his unguarded let-him-have-it three point shot or pass the ball.

He's not the driving or scoring threat of De'Aaron or for that matter Ingram or Randle.

If the Lakers were smart they would trade Lonzo Bust before his trade value diminishes.

I don't think he has a lot of trade value, but I would anticipate his trade value will only diminish unless he becomes a 40% shooter from deep.

As I have said ad nauseum, that qualifier can apply to any guard! That is, if your shot goes in you magically become a better player!

Astonishingly insightful, I know

All good points, Blob.
Lonzo has the worst looking shot in th NBA (for guys who shoot from outside). It would be comical if it wasn't so sad looking. For him to even get as far as Ricky Rubio, someone is going to have to re-construct his shooting mechanics. At least we know that Fox has a good looking shot already; he just needs to become more consistent with it.

 

[jcassio]

Yep the defense breakdowns usually consist of Fox getting caught behind screens, ZBo not guarding anyone, WCS not guarding stretch big men and the rest of the team incessantly guarding the mid range instead of staying close enough to close out on 3 point shooters. I think a lot of the latter is Joerger's system.

100% agree. Fox has his moments, but overall, having Fox and Z-bo on the floor is like having only three defenders. Maybe worse.

 

[King Baller]

Fox is a pretty good defender. You guys need to give Lillard his due respect.

 

[Kingsfan23]

He’s just not been playing good basketball, from few games before all star break to now, with little imprint on games. I hope there is a reason for the lulls that won’t be perceptible in the future, like work rate

 

[Larry David]

What's John Wall's go-to move?

That he knows how to run an NBA offense at an elite level because of his floor sense and passing, who can also score in bunches?

 

[allrightythen]

Fox is improving. I don't know what the expectations were coming in but in some ways he's better and in some ways he's worse. I thought he would be a slightly better distributor and a worse shooter. Those kind of flip-flopped for him but he's improving as a distributor.

As far as his defense goes it hasn't been great. I think the expectations for his defense were always a little too high because of his frame and quickness. He has defensive potential still but he has a ways to go there. As a rookie, I like his progress and maturity and I think we'll see him slowly improve as a distributor and a defender. I'm not sure how many one-n-done rookie point guards come in as great or even good defenders. It's pretty clear to me that he worked on his shot coming into the league and its been solid. As he progresses I trust him to examine his game and work on the areas he needs to. He has that kind of maturity.

 

[Kingster]

I'm not worried about Fox in the least. He's the last guy on this team that I have concerns about. He has All Defense potential and All Star potential. His strength will get better, his stamina will get better, his anticipation will get better, his shot will get better, the calls he gets from the refs will get better, his finishing will get better, EVERYTHING is going to get better, and it's not like he's a rube out there now.

 

[jcassio]

I'm not worried about Fox in the least. He's the last guy on this team that I have concerns about. He has All Defense potential and All Star potential. His strength will get better, his stamina will get better, his anticipation will get better, his shot will get better, the calls he gets from the refs will get better, his finishing will get better, EVERYTHING is going to get better, and it's not like he's a rube out there now.

Your optimism is the reason for this tear in my eye.

 

[kingsboi]

What's John Wall's go-to move?

crossover dribble with a mid-range J and the around the back lefty lay up

 

[gunks]

Growing pains. And he may very well have hit the rookie wall.

Fox is a smart kid and by all accounts a hard worker. If he still sucks in 3 years we can start to worry, but I wouldn't be surprised if this conversion is moot by year 2.

The teenagers that come in as rookies and dominate right away are few and far between, and usually go #1 overall. Fox, as a prospect, was never that tier.

 

[sactowndog]

Fox is a pretty good defender. You guys need to give Lillard his due respect.

Based on what?

I’m not reviewing one game. Look at old recordings and rewind the defensive breakdowns. It’s not just Fox for sure but too often Fox is not switching and we have two defenders on one offensive player or he’s helping where it’s not needed and guarding air while 3 point shooters bomb away. Most of those aren’t effort they are situational awareness. The other issue is Fox is not fighting over screens by anticipating them. He drops way under them and both Teague and Lilliard made him pay.

 

[sactowndog]

Growing pains. And he may very well have hit the rookie wall.

Fox is a smart kid and by all accounts a hard worker. If he still sucks in 3 years we can start to worry, but I wouldn't be surprised if this conversion is moot by year 2.

The teenagers that come in as rookies and dominate right away are few and far between, and usually go #1 overall. Fox, as a prospect, was never that tier.

My only concern is game IQ shows up early and usually on D while players grow in their offensive game and moves. OG being an example.

I’m not worried about Fox’s shooting and offensive moves. Those will come. More concerned with what seems a lack of game awareness both in passing and team defense.

 

[ESP47]

What's John Wall's go-to move?

John Wall has a whole bunch of moves including a good cross over. Think of how many times a game Wall gets to the rim or deep into the paint in a half court set and then think of how many times Fox does? I'm not even sure if you could say Fox gets into the paint more than three times a game in the half court.

I never liked the comparison between the two. Wall was always bigger with a more NBA ready body. Had much better passing chops and court awareness as well. Fox is crazy fast, don't get me wrong, but it's not as impressive when it's a really skinny or small guy as it is when it's a big PG like Wall. But my issue is that he doesn't have any moves to get to the hoop in the half court and he gets stymied way too easily by the defense. Sort of like how Jerry Reynolds was always going on and on about how quick Collison was but we rarely ever saw it because Collison doesn't have the handles nor the moves to get by his man and get to the basket. If it wasn't for his elite shooting abilities, he would be a bottom of the barrel PG.

 

[jcassio]

John Wall has a whole bunch of moves including a good cross over. Think of how many times a game Wall gets to the rim or deep into the paint in a half court set and then think of how many times Fox does? I'm not even sure if you could say Fox gets into the paint more than three times a game in the half court.

I never liked the comparison between the two. Wall was always bigger with a more NBA ready body. Had much better passing chops and court awareness as well. Fox is crazy fast, don't get me wrong, but it's not as impressive when it's a really skinny or small guy as it is when it's a big PG like Wall. But my issue is that he doesn't have any moves to get to the hoop in the half court and he gets stymied way too easily by the defense. Sort of like how Jerry Reynolds was always going on and on about how quick Collison was but we rarely ever saw it because Collison doesn't have the handles nor the moves to get by his man and get to the basket. If it wasn't for his elite shooting abilities, he would be a bottom of the barrel PG.

I think Wall is a good comparison. Both are PGs. Both are blazing fast. Both were high draft picks. Both were raw coming into the NBA. But think what you want.
Yes, Wall was bigger. Almost 200 lbs, if I recall. But Fox, while skinny, is long and surprisingly durable. Yes, Fox needs to get stronger. Wall may have had an NBA-ready body as a rookie.
Both were thought to have shooting deficiencies as rookies. At the same point their rookie years, I'm not sure that Fox isn't the better shooter. Wall is probably the better distributor.
The comparison works for me. And it suggests that Fox has a long way to go. But his upside is spectacular.

 

[mac]

I think Wall is a good comparison. Both are PGs. Both are blazing fast. Both were high draft picks. Both were raw coming into the NBA. But think what you want.
Yes, Wall was bigger. Almost 200 lbs, if I recall. But Fox, while skinny, is long and surprisingly durable. Yes, Fox needs to get stronger. Wall may have had an NBA-ready body as a rookie.
Both were thought to have shooting deficiencies as rookies. At the same point their rookie years, I'm not sure that Fox isn't the better shooter. Wall is probably the better distributor.
The comparison works for me. And it suggests that Fox has a long way to go. But his upside is spectacular.

What exactly makes you say Fox is durable? By all accounts he keeps tweaking this and that

 

[BeerNerd916]

What exactly makes you say Fox is durable? By all accounts he keeps tweaking this and that

He got beat to all hell last night.

 

[206Fan]

I think some people are being a little harsh on Fox, but it's only because of how high the expectations were set on him after he got drafted. All-star, superstar, etc. However, I think a lot of the fanbase now sees that those expectations were too high and a bit unrealistic.

He's been a promising young rookie PG. I think that's all we can really ask for. He's also been our best looking rookie since Papagiannis, Richardson, Labissiere, WCS, Stauskas, McLemore, Robinson, Jimmer, Cousins. WCS was solid, but 7pts 5rebs 1blk doesn't do much for me...

 

[Kingsfan23]

I think some people are being a little harsh on Fox, but it's only because of how high the expectations were set on him after he got drafted. All-star, superstar, etc. However, I think a lot of the fanbase now sees that those expectations were too high and a bit unrealistic.

He's been a promising young rookie PG. I think that's all we can really ask for. He's also been our best looking rookie since Papagiannis, Richardson, Labissiere, WCS, Stauskas, McLemore, Robinson, Jimmer, Cousins. WCS was solid, but 7pts 5rebs 1blk doesn't do much for me...

I put my hopes in the player of the first few weeks. The electric, 14/5/5+, ROY discussion type. Just because I’ve seen that player, on occasion.