Bracketing the NBA tournament

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Bracketing the NBA tournament

By Andrew Ayres
ESPN.com


Put down that bracket, would you? Or click away from it. Your choice. Course you won't. The college game's March Madness puts a firm grip on most everybody. However, we remind you that the NBA jumps right to its Sweet 16 in late April, and finishes in June. College mid-majors need not apply for these ultimate finals, the NBA's mid-June croon.

So why wait for bracket news from graduate school, also known as the NBA? In honor of the college game's shining season, here's ten points to ponder while the NBA seeds plant themselves -- no tournament committee wrangling needed -- in the coming weeks.

1. Which team on the bubble will not make it?
Everybody loves Chris Paul, but the Hornets are fading down the stretch in the face of more experienced teams.

2. Which team on the bubble will make it?
Sacramento in the West has moved over the .500 mark, pushing ahead of the Hornets for the West Region's No. 8 seed, and is finishing with all the aplomb of a Shaq slam at LSU. In the East, the Bucks, by the fingernails. Michael Redd's dead-eye shot, and a Friday win over surging Boston might end up being the difference in holding on to the East's eight seed.

3. First No. 1 seed to fall?

We've yet to see a first-round loss for a No. 1 seed in the college tournament (thanks to Miami backup Alonzo Mourning, in a Georgetown uniform swatting Princeton shots back in the Jurassic Age, er, 1989). Don't expect a one to go down in the NBA until the finals.

4. Most likely Cinderella story?

This belle wears baby blue unis. This is where the Nuggets come in. Put the shoe on, 'Melo, the man who led the 'Cuse to a title in his only college season.


5. Which bracket is shaping up as the toughest?
The West, in particular the teams coming from the 4-5 seeds. As it stands now, that would be the Mavs and Clippers. Winner gets 1-8 seeds Spurs-Kings for the right to play in the West finals against, in all likelihood, the Suns with Amare. That's like getting shipped the Boise Regional for a late game against the 'Zags. For 21 games. Whew.


6. Which 1-8 seed matchup is likely to produce the biggest upset? Belmont, Albany, Southern . . . meet the Bucks and Kings (as it stands now). These odds are longer than a football field. No chance the Pistons or the Spurs/Mavs deathmatch winner gets ousted here. Not happening.

7. Which 2-7 matchup is likely to produce the biggest upset?
Looks like Heat-Sixers, Suns-Lakers. Odds seem just as long as 1-8 matchup. In the college bracket, fifteen-seed Davidson probably has a better chance than those two underdogs.

8. Which would-be college senior (or upperclassman) will shine brightest in this year's NBA playoffs?
1. LeBron, a junior from Akron. 2. Amare Stoudemire, senior from Florida. 3. Carmelo Anthony, senior from Baltimore.

9. Which team is most likely to be Four and Done?
Forget the obvious fringe candidates. The Grizz don't like heights, and have never won in Denver.

10. Which team is most likely to run the table (without a loss) in the playoffs?
A Pistons team that returns to its earlier punishing mode could douse the Bucks, tame the Pacers-Cavs winner and then hand out the kind of beatdown to the Spurs it showed itself capable of back in February.
But very unlikely.

Finally, what's a tournament column without some Final Four picks?
Here they are: Spurs (Tim Duncan polished his game four years at Wake Forest), Pistons (Rip Hamilton put up his Duke(s) in title win for UConn), Suns (Steve Nash's No. 15 seed Santa Clara beat 'Zona) and the Heat (Dwyane Wade willed Marquette to the Final Four).

Your final: Pistons beat Spurs in six. A clash for the ages, and the not-quite aged. 'Sheed and Duncan go way back, battling each other over a decade ago in the ACC. They've been schooling opponents ever since.

Andrew Ayres is an NBA editor for ESPN.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-060313
 
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