Bee: NBA draft lacks certain No. 1 pick

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NBA draft lacks certain No. 1 pick
By Joe Davidson -- Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:01 am PDT Tuesday, June 27, 2006


The first step necessary in breaking down the NBA draft is to figure out who is going first.

This is not a draft to be confused with those with headliner talents such as Shaquille O'Neal, the no-brainer pick for Orlando in 1992, or Le-Bron James, who went to Cleveland in 2003. No, Wednesday's picking at New York's Madison Square Garden is a mystery.

And it's a different draft than those to which we've become accustomed. There are no prep players in the mix for the first time since 1994 -- pre-Kevin Garnett -- as part of the NBA's collective-bargaining agreement.

So, overall -- a good draft? Solid? Fair to average?

"I grade it a good draft that doesn't have the name superstar that people get so excited about," said ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas in a draft conference call. "I think there's some very nice talent, and I think you can see some surprises. There are teams out there throwing up smoke screens."

Of course. It's not a draft unless someone is sandbagging a half-dozen prospects. There is trade talk swirling and all sorts of debate as to who will go first, second and third.

"I think you really could see just about any combination in the top five or six (picks), and that's made for some very interesting talks," Marty Blake, who oversees the NBA's scouting service, told the Dallas Morning News. "If you're picking third or fourth, you generally have an idea who is falling to you, and that's just not the case this year."

The last time there was this much uncertainty at the top of the draft board was in 2001. Kwame Brown and Tyson Chandler were in a tight competition for No. 1 overall honors with Washington, when Brown approached then-Wizards executive Michael Jordan and proclaimed, "If you draft me, you'll never regret it."

Perhaps the kid meant to say, "You'll never forget it." Brown went No. 1, but he was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers after four lackluster seasons. Jordan, meanwhile, is picking through the prospects as a front-office man with the Charlotte Bobcats.

So who will be No. 1 this time? Toronto owns the top pick, and mock drafts and experts have all sorts of names going first, from 7-foot Italian forward Andrea Bargnani to Texas power forward LaMarcus Aldridge to LSU forward Tyrus Thomas to Gonzaga shooting whiz Adam Morrison.

Fran Fraschilla, ESPN's international draft guru, and Bilas agree that Bargnani is intriguing, but neither sees him as the clear No. 1 pick.

"I'm not sold on him, frankly," Bilas said. "A lot of people compare him to Dirk Nowitzki, but Dirk gets to the free-throw line. That guy's not a post-up player, or is he a physical athlete. That's something NBA teams have to access."

Fraschilla said Bargnani is NBA-ready, or at least more so than some other European big men who have been selected in the first round, including Darko Milicic and Nikoloz Tskitishvili.

"Bargnani has played in 75 games (internationally) at a level that is higher than any college in America," he said. "And he played well at the end of the year. He's got more of a track record than (some before him). He is 7 feet. He is more of a four man (forward) than a post-up player. He is deceptively athletic, and he can guard smaller players."

Bilas said Thomas is a "freakishly athletic" player that the Chicago Bulls may select No. 2. Bilas said the two most complete players on the board are Washington guard Brandon Roy and Villanova guard Randy Foye, both projected to go in the top 10.

One player who has dropped in Bilas' mind is Aldridge.

"I had him No. 1 before the season and midway through the season," Bilas said. "He's very athletic, and he runs the floor. He's slight of build right now. He's a lot like Chris Bosh (now a star with Toronto). So maybe."

This year's draft does have one similarity to previous crops. The international flavor remains strong with players such as Bargnani, 7-footer Mouhamed Saer Sene of Senegal, forward Thabo Sefolosha of Switzerland, guard Sergio Rodríguez of Spain and forward Marcus Vinicius of Brazil.

And those players enter with more skills, Fraschilla said, than their American brethren.

"They're not as athletic as the kids here, but there is a skill level difference, no question about it," he said. "And the international players are less jaded and more hungry than some of our players. Some in this draft have been coddled since they were 14."

About the writer: The Bee's Joe Davidson can be reached at jdavidson@sacbee.com.
 
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