Bagley @ the 5 or bust.
- Thread starter upinsmoke
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This pre-draft look at MBIII rated him at the five: https://www.thestepien.com/2018/04/19/offensive-upside-deandre-ayton-vs-marvin-bagley/
A lot to improve on, especially D at the 5, but next to Fox this could work well.
A lot to improve on, especially D at the 5, but next to Fox this could work well.
The issue with moving him to the 5 is already on the team. Look at how effective Richaun Holmes is already: He's a great rim protector, he's able to hedge out onto the perimeter on defense, he's a good, not great rebounder, he's an excellent rim runner that draws defenders to him and he's hyper-efficient with his limited USG on offense. Add in the fact we have 3 high USG guards who take up a lot of possessions and his low USG helps the flow of the offense around them better. As such, he makes an incredible impact on both ends of the floor and has by far been the best player on the team for us this year.
Of everything I just listed that Holmes brings to the team, is Bagley even close to Holmes in any of those attributes? Even rebounding, where you might think Bagley has an edge, he's currently sitting at 16.4% TRB this year while Holmes is at 16.3%. So while moving Bagley to the 5 might be where he has to play, you're taking off a ton of impact off the floor that he has to make up for.
Team has a lot to work out this summer. Mainly how in the hell they're going to get any production out of their #2 pick when it's hard to find him a role that other guys on the team aren't significantly better at.
Of everything I just listed that Holmes brings to the team, is Bagley even close to Holmes in any of those attributes? Even rebounding, where you might think Bagley has an edge, he's currently sitting at 16.4% TRB this year while Holmes is at 16.3%. So while moving Bagley to the 5 might be where he has to play, you're taking off a ton of impact off the floor that he has to make up for.
Team has a lot to work out this summer. Mainly how in the hell they're going to get any production out of their #2 pick when it's hard to find him a role that other guys on the team aren't significantly better at.
CoJo isn't a better shooter than Fox and isn't near the same offensive threat in the PnR or even just in general. Non-issue for me, especially considering Bogi, Barnes, Buddy and Bjelica are usually going to be the 3 of the 4 around those 2. That's the beauty of Holmes: doesn't really matter what's around him on the court, he's going to make an impact on both ends of the court. Which is incredibly valuable.
Those 6 are the ones I'd like to see all healthy together and see what they could do. Near perfect lineup construction that puts everyone in a position to succeed and theoretically all average to above-average NBA players.
Those 6 are the ones I'd like to see all healthy together and see what they could do. Near perfect lineup construction that puts everyone in a position to succeed and theoretically all average to above-average NBA players.
I don't think we have to be that hung up on positions. Matchups are more important. Against some lineups, and depending on our lineup, it is perfectly fine to play Bagley at the 5, others better to have Bagley at the 4.
More important question, IMO, is what will be most important for Bagley to develop in the coming season? He has so many holes in his game, I really view him as a developmental player who will take several years to develop. That is one reason why it made no sense for us to pick him, also given our past lack of success in player development (Hi, Peja!).
But then we also have the question, what will be our system, offensively and defensively next year? I have no clue yet what Walton is trying to do.
More important question, IMO, is what will be most important for Bagley to develop in the coming season? He has so many holes in his game, I really view him as a developmental player who will take several years to develop. That is one reason why it made no sense for us to pick him, also given our past lack of success in player development (Hi, Peja!).
But then we also have the question, what will be our system, offensively and defensively next year? I have no clue yet what Walton is trying to do.
In ATL they have went out of their way to insure John Collins plays the 4. In the same vein IMO Bagley is a 4 and can play some small ball 5. He should not have to defend the Adams, Aytons or Embiids of the Association. In the first game this season we saw Ayton who is on PEDs clobber Bagley creating the first injury he had this season.
Later in his career Bagley may have grown/developed his body enough to defend the bigger 5s but he is not there yet.
Later in his career Bagley may have grown/developed his body enough to defend the bigger 5s but he is not there yet.
Bagley paired with a non shooting big takes so much away from Bagley offensively. Bagley as a pick n roll screener would be worse if there were already another big clogging the lane. Same with his post ups. Playing with a non shooting big would somewhat demote him to a floor spacer. Hes not good at it so it would decrease the overall offensive efficency compared to having a guy like Bjelica spacing the floor. This is the exact reason why we overpaid for a guy like Dedmon. Bagley needs a floor spacing center next to him in order for him to be fully utilized.
Bagley did have 15 pts and 15 rebounds in the last game he played, playing center and his defense was outstanding. The question is, can he sustain it? Also there are other questions about his injury and the other things posted in the Athletic article, but if he stays and he stays healthy, is that Miami game reflective of his potential as a center or is it an outlier performance?
I think he's already a bust at the 5. Centers don't go from as bad as he is defensively to even average defensively...no matter what their age is. It's so rare that waiting around for it to happen is futile.
To me, his only path toward success is playing the 4. He's better defensively there but he would need to develop a better outside shot. His 3 point shot has been bad this year but last year he got 44% and 38% from 3 in the last 2 months of the season. He has a much much higher chance of developing an adequate 3 point shot than he does developing into a serviceable center defensively.
Problem is that players like Bjelica already play the 4 better than he more than likely would even if he did develop so it's just kind of a depressing situation when I think about it.
To me, his only path toward success is playing the 4. He's better defensively there but he would need to develop a better outside shot. His 3 point shot has been bad this year but last year he got 44% and 38% from 3 in the last 2 months of the season. He has a much much higher chance of developing an adequate 3 point shot than he does developing into a serviceable center defensively.
Problem is that players like Bjelica already play the 4 better than he more than likely would even if he did develop so it's just kind of a depressing situation when I think about it.
Again, the issue is there's like 3 actually good 5's in the NBA that can space (BroLo, Turner, Dedmon) that aren't superstars and apparently the one we acquired decided he doesn't want to play for us. And Bagley at the 5 might be the solution on offense for him, but he's just not capable of anchoring a defense right now and I doubt he ever gets to the point where he can anchor a playoff defense for 30+ minutes a night. Yeah you can get to adequate on defense, but defenders that are bad in their first few years in the league almost never go on to be great in that area. Can't think of one example where that's been true.
He's just stuck in no-man's land right now in terms of where and how he needs to develop. I think he's got a much better chance developing as a 4 and using his athleticism and size to bully the small-ball PF's. He should have all the athleticism in the world to defend out on the perimeter and if he gets that shot rolling consistently, he'll be a valuable piece going forward.
Just think it's a non-starter trying to make him a 5. There haven't even been signs on the film that we can point to where it looks promising. Taking advantage of his super athleticism and developing his outside game would be a much better use of his development than expecting him to become a defensive anchor.
He's just stuck in no-man's land right now in terms of where and how he needs to develop. I think he's got a much better chance developing as a 4 and using his athleticism and size to bully the small-ball PF's. He should have all the athleticism in the world to defend out on the perimeter and if he gets that shot rolling consistently, he'll be a valuable piece going forward.
Just think it's a non-starter trying to make him a 5. There haven't even been signs on the film that we can point to where it looks promising. Taking advantage of his super athleticism and developing his outside game would be a much better use of his development than expecting him to become a defensive anchor.
Bagley can spread the floor. If he can't his career is not going anywhere. Players are defined in the NBA by where they can play defense. Bagley can't defend a lot of centers or PFs either.
Holmes is a guy that I want on the floor. I don't care if he doesn't spread the floor. He is a good foul shooter and can start making shots out to 15 feet.
The future of the Kings has been in doubt for more than decade. One number two pick is not likely to change their chances that much. Problems with the Kings go way beyond Bagley's injuries and what position he needs to play. The future is not that great no matter where he plays.
Holmes is a guy that I want on the floor. I don't care if he doesn't spread the floor. He is a good foul shooter and can start making shots out to 15 feet.
The future of the Kings has been in doubt for more than decade. One number two pick is not likely to change their chances that much. Problems with the Kings go way beyond Bagley's injuries and what position he needs to play. The future is not that great no matter where he plays.