Put your predictions and analysis here, and at the end of the season, lets see where we are. We have had a very spirited debate on the quality of this year's Monarchs roster. Here is one person's analysis of what we may see in this the 13th year of our beloved Monarchs.
SACRAMENTO MONARCHS
Projected Starting Five
F – Rebekkah Brunson
F – Nicole Powell
F– DeMya Walker
PG – Ticha Penechiero
SG – Kara Lawson
KEYS
Bench Players – Hamchetou Maiga Ba, Laura Harper Crystal Kelly, Scholanda Robinson, Chelsea Newton, Courtney Paris
Additions – Paris, Maiga Ba
Subtractions – NONE
Positive Statistic – .384 3 Point FG Percentage (Tops in the League)
Negative Statistic – Nicole Powell, .411 from threes, .336 from twos, total shooting percentage of .368
BACKCOURT
There is no question that the backcourt is the weakness of this team. In theory there is no backup point guard, the team still does not have a “break you down, create your own shot at the end of the shot clock, I will put the team on my back in the fourth quarter” player. Scholanda Robinson and Chelsea Newton still have not improved enough offensively to solidify this part of the team. But between the four of them, you have a wealth of basketball intelligence to make up for raw offensive prowess. This is the year that Kara Lawson (along with Powell and Brunson, whom I will get to later) must become the unquestionable leaders, heart and soul of the franchise, if they want to take the next step. Last year Lawson shot 40 percent from the field. That is not good enough, even though she is a career 40 percent shooter. Robinson, 40 percent, Newton 40 percent, Ticha 37 percent. That is not good enough. In order for this backcourt to achieve, they must collectively shoot 3 to 4 percent better. On the defensive side, I believe this was not a problem last year, and should still be good. That group led by Penechiero gets after you. The Monarchs were second in the league in steals last season.
FRONTCOURT
On paper this group has improved tremendously……ON PAPER. But this is where the defensive failure came in 2008. With the injuries to Brunson and Walker, the lack of inside presence from Kelly, Harper and the now departed Adrian Williams, the Monarchs front court was miserable in 2008. The team was last in field goal percentage allowed (.450) and a lot of that was no pressure at the basket although there was a lot of attention at the basket, which opened up the outside for a lot of timely basets by the opponents. The one player who was steady on the defensive side of the ball was Nicole Powell. In playing a lot at the power forward, Powell was big enough to play natural post players with effective on the ball defense, and mobile enough to pick and jump at passes to deny natural post the ball a lot. Rebekkah Brunson must get back to Rebekkah Brunson form. She is easily the most athletic post player in the WNBA, and this team’s most gifted rebounder. I am hoping that past injuries have not robbed her of her athleticism at an early age, as it has DeMya Walker. Brunson in her All-Star form has offensively developed a mid-range jump shot and post moves around the basket that puts you in mind of Dominique Wilkins. She is mobile, active and springy which makes her unique to this team. I hope we see more of that in 2009. I do not know what to expect from DeMya Walker. It is imperative that her conditioning and her physical ability to compete improves from what I saw in practice and pre-season. I know she is not what she was, but I think DeMya can contribute 10 points and 5 boards a game in her sleep. If she can do that without turning the ball over so much, that is all I can ask for. In order for the Monarchs to succeed both Laura Harper and Crystal Kelly have to improve and contribute. Because they are so much around the basket, both players shoot around 45-47 percent, which is above league average (42 percent). But I am hoping that both players have improved their foot work enough to not get their shot blocked as much and to block shots without committing silly rookie fouls. We will leave that to Courtney Paris this season. In Paris, it is without question the talent and intelligence is there; the hands and the feet are there no doubt. I believe that she is bright enough to know that at this level you must be in condition, so I won’t even comment any more on that. But can she be a freak of Monarchs nature and put all of that together during the season. Paris is a rebounding machine, and because of that alone she will play. She also will play while Brunson and Walker are coming along. But can she contribute. Maiga Ba is a welcomed addition back to the Monarchs and has improved offensively and still brings defensive intensity and energy every moment she is on the floor. But back to my original point, this group has to improve defensivly in order to compete.
COACHING
I have grown to appreciate the coaching of Jenny Boucek. She has come into her own as a leader of this team, and continues to inspire her team to play hard and get the most of what God has given you. Coach has to get back to the defensive principles that defines this franchise. Somewhere along the way last season in attempting to find offense, the team lost defensively and was the sole failure of not advancing in the post season. Coach Boucek continues to preach 11 strong, and I think with this roster, she fnally has what she has been looking for. She can look up and down the bench and see that any of the 11 players can go in and do something. Now it is up to her to develop a substitution pattern that keeps all 11 engaged and ready for combat.
PROJECTION – 3RD, WESTERN CONFERENCE (19-15)
I know a lot of us are at odds at what and where this team will be at the beginning of the season. I believe that the Western Conference is going to be a dog fight from top to bottom. Not one single team in this Conference has improved enough to run away.
Los Angeles is always talented (but their core is older and their MVP is missing until July), but still have a ton of question marks
Seattle has a good starting five, a suspect bench
San Antonio still has Hammon and Young, but no Wauters for a period of time and no significant upgrades
Phoenix has Diana and Cappie and……..WHAT? That roster continues to deteriorate
Minnesota has a collection of young college all stars. But they made a coaching change four day before the season
The Monarchs are right there. And they possess the ancestry of 9 out of the last 10 years with playoff appearances including 1 Championship, 2 Finals appearances, 5 Western Conference Finals appearances ALL while transitioning on the fly. I do not expect that to change this season. The key is to improve defensively and be consistent on offense. Win or tie the season series of the teams you are directly competing with (Phoenix and Minnesota on the back end, San Antonio and Seattle on the front end) If the Monarchs can scratch 8 wins out of that group and a nice 6 or 7 game win streak somewhere in the schedule (avoiding a long losing streak), this team will make the playoffs. And of course in the playoffs…..ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
SACRAMENTO MONARCHS
Projected Starting Five
F – Rebekkah Brunson
F – Nicole Powell
F– DeMya Walker
PG – Ticha Penechiero
SG – Kara Lawson
KEYS
Bench Players – Hamchetou Maiga Ba, Laura Harper Crystal Kelly, Scholanda Robinson, Chelsea Newton, Courtney Paris
Additions – Paris, Maiga Ba
Subtractions – NONE
Positive Statistic – .384 3 Point FG Percentage (Tops in the League)
Negative Statistic – Nicole Powell, .411 from threes, .336 from twos, total shooting percentage of .368
BACKCOURT
There is no question that the backcourt is the weakness of this team. In theory there is no backup point guard, the team still does not have a “break you down, create your own shot at the end of the shot clock, I will put the team on my back in the fourth quarter” player. Scholanda Robinson and Chelsea Newton still have not improved enough offensively to solidify this part of the team. But between the four of them, you have a wealth of basketball intelligence to make up for raw offensive prowess. This is the year that Kara Lawson (along with Powell and Brunson, whom I will get to later) must become the unquestionable leaders, heart and soul of the franchise, if they want to take the next step. Last year Lawson shot 40 percent from the field. That is not good enough, even though she is a career 40 percent shooter. Robinson, 40 percent, Newton 40 percent, Ticha 37 percent. That is not good enough. In order for this backcourt to achieve, they must collectively shoot 3 to 4 percent better. On the defensive side, I believe this was not a problem last year, and should still be good. That group led by Penechiero gets after you. The Monarchs were second in the league in steals last season.
FRONTCOURT
On paper this group has improved tremendously……ON PAPER. But this is where the defensive failure came in 2008. With the injuries to Brunson and Walker, the lack of inside presence from Kelly, Harper and the now departed Adrian Williams, the Monarchs front court was miserable in 2008. The team was last in field goal percentage allowed (.450) and a lot of that was no pressure at the basket although there was a lot of attention at the basket, which opened up the outside for a lot of timely basets by the opponents. The one player who was steady on the defensive side of the ball was Nicole Powell. In playing a lot at the power forward, Powell was big enough to play natural post players with effective on the ball defense, and mobile enough to pick and jump at passes to deny natural post the ball a lot. Rebekkah Brunson must get back to Rebekkah Brunson form. She is easily the most athletic post player in the WNBA, and this team’s most gifted rebounder. I am hoping that past injuries have not robbed her of her athleticism at an early age, as it has DeMya Walker. Brunson in her All-Star form has offensively developed a mid-range jump shot and post moves around the basket that puts you in mind of Dominique Wilkins. She is mobile, active and springy which makes her unique to this team. I hope we see more of that in 2009. I do not know what to expect from DeMya Walker. It is imperative that her conditioning and her physical ability to compete improves from what I saw in practice and pre-season. I know she is not what she was, but I think DeMya can contribute 10 points and 5 boards a game in her sleep. If she can do that without turning the ball over so much, that is all I can ask for. In order for the Monarchs to succeed both Laura Harper and Crystal Kelly have to improve and contribute. Because they are so much around the basket, both players shoot around 45-47 percent, which is above league average (42 percent). But I am hoping that both players have improved their foot work enough to not get their shot blocked as much and to block shots without committing silly rookie fouls. We will leave that to Courtney Paris this season. In Paris, it is without question the talent and intelligence is there; the hands and the feet are there no doubt. I believe that she is bright enough to know that at this level you must be in condition, so I won’t even comment any more on that. But can she be a freak of Monarchs nature and put all of that together during the season. Paris is a rebounding machine, and because of that alone she will play. She also will play while Brunson and Walker are coming along. But can she contribute. Maiga Ba is a welcomed addition back to the Monarchs and has improved offensively and still brings defensive intensity and energy every moment she is on the floor. But back to my original point, this group has to improve defensivly in order to compete.
COACHING
I have grown to appreciate the coaching of Jenny Boucek. She has come into her own as a leader of this team, and continues to inspire her team to play hard and get the most of what God has given you. Coach has to get back to the defensive principles that defines this franchise. Somewhere along the way last season in attempting to find offense, the team lost defensively and was the sole failure of not advancing in the post season. Coach Boucek continues to preach 11 strong, and I think with this roster, she fnally has what she has been looking for. She can look up and down the bench and see that any of the 11 players can go in and do something. Now it is up to her to develop a substitution pattern that keeps all 11 engaged and ready for combat.
PROJECTION – 3RD, WESTERN CONFERENCE (19-15)
I know a lot of us are at odds at what and where this team will be at the beginning of the season. I believe that the Western Conference is going to be a dog fight from top to bottom. Not one single team in this Conference has improved enough to run away.
Los Angeles is always talented (but their core is older and their MVP is missing until July), but still have a ton of question marks
Seattle has a good starting five, a suspect bench
San Antonio still has Hammon and Young, but no Wauters for a period of time and no significant upgrades
Phoenix has Diana and Cappie and……..WHAT? That roster continues to deteriorate
Minnesota has a collection of young college all stars. But they made a coaching change four day before the season
The Monarchs are right there. And they possess the ancestry of 9 out of the last 10 years with playoff appearances including 1 Championship, 2 Finals appearances, 5 Western Conference Finals appearances ALL while transitioning on the fly. I do not expect that to change this season. The key is to improve defensively and be consistent on offense. Win or tie the season series of the teams you are directly competing with (Phoenix and Minnesota on the back end, San Antonio and Seattle on the front end) If the Monarchs can scratch 8 wins out of that group and a nice 6 or 7 game win streak somewhere in the schedule (avoiding a long losing streak), this team will make the playoffs. And of course in the playoffs…..ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.