There are a lot of smart, intellegent people on this board. I really mean that. I have learned more about arena leasing reading this thread than I ever would have thought.
This whole deal in my estimation comes down to three very important factors:
1. Can the Kings ownership come up with enough capital funds to cover relocation and the outstanding loan to the City of Sacramento. Will Mayor Johnson and City Council accept Arco Arena as sufficient payment for the loan. Or will they make the Maloof Family cough up every red cent before they load up the U-Haul. How does that work.
They are in serious loan trouble with the Palms. They are "restructuring" but could lose the Palms or more likely, lose conrtrol of the Palms. They are a risk to the person or entity giving the loan. They will pay for this with high rates or putting something else at big risk. The money they will make is theoretical if they move and real if they stay. It might even be they can't get a big enough loan.
Their credibility as buisnessmen and playboys would be destroyed if they left Sacto holding the bag with a worthless building. I think image means a lot to the Maloofs.
2. Can the Kings ownership cut a good enough TV deal with Fox Sports West and KCAL-TV 9 (both now are without a team with the Lakers new mega-deal) in time enough for the what is now looking like 2012 NBA season. Or is not having a TV deal by April 18th OK with the BOG. The team can negotiate TV deal through the lockout.
TV deals are dependent on ratings to a huge extent. Ad rates are driven by viewership stats and the station needs to make more money in ads than they pay to the team. It will depend on how popular the Kings/Royals are. If I was a TV station, given the record of the team in the last 5 years and the attendance recently, I would be cautious about doling out a huge contract. By that I mean a contract that makes up for what could be a huge expense to move. They probably will not give out a good deal based on how good the team
will get but how they are
now. They run TV stations and aren't optimistic fans.
3. Will the NBA BOGs have the guts to make history in allowing "three team" markets in professional sports. Because if they do this, they will open the flood gates for 3 teams in LA, 3 teams in NY/NJ, 2 teams in the Bay Area, and a possible second team in the third largest market Chicago. I could see a scenario where 10 NBA teams can be in four markets. If that happens, Sacramento will never ever get another team.
The stated attitude of Stern as echoed from the Sacramento Mayor's office is that the NBA is very sensitive to the reality and/or apearance that a small market has no chance. In the end the owners vote and they always vote "yes" on a move. They have never had a vote of having three teams (besides the other sports in the area vs the number of good pro sports and college sports in Sacto - none] and might take a second breathe before they rubber stamp with a "yes" vote. The Clippers and Lakers are actively lobbying the other owners to vote "no."
The ultimate answer is "I don't know."
The league, if it is telling the truth on where its interests lie, must protect small markets. Otherwise they have been full of crap all along. Yes, Milwaukee is in bad shape. They have a bad arena owned by an absentee owner, a 76 year old senior Senator named Herb Kohl.
I feel that regardless of the arena situation here in Sacramento, the Kings ownership is going to take this Anaheim deal regardless of the arena risk. Because they know that if they don't take it now, Memphis and Milwaukee is next in line.
I doubt if they can come up with the money to move despite deals from other areas. They do not cover the expenses. It might end up being a question is "can they come up with the cash to move?" So far, I don't think so.
Flying off the edge a bit, I think some people have a misconception of the rich. Rich people get rich by being good businessmen. They don't get rich by giving away money without asking for an arm and a leg in returm. The idea that the Maloofs are billionaires is the perfect example. They can't be billionaires. They have sold the business that made the family the money although I have only heard that here and don't know if it is true. They are in serious trouble at the Palms. They are in trouble here although if you assume they are really not billionaires, the small profit pretty much guareanteed in this area moving forward may look better than putting everything at risk. I think they are desparate and thinking about rolling the dice to try to come up with the cash to salvage the Palms and their image.
What is a billionaire? Is it a person who controls a billion dollars worth of property or who actually has a net worth of a billion. They are the owners of the Kings on paper yet in reality own 51%. The same may become true at the Palms or worse.
Will they risk their minority partners' money knowing that at least 25% are totally against the move? Even rich people are human and I think the Maloofs are as human as you can be. They are not good businessmen or perhaps just got killed by the economy. There is an assumption that Samueli lights his Cuban cigars with $100 bills. Is he one of the few uneffected by the economy? I doubt it.