2009-10 Kings draft position thread

[ElRey]

2007 Draft seems to be the oddball draft where all three of the top teams got leapfrogged by lower teams and ended up with the worse pick possible. Hopefully this won't happen to us this year. As long as we get in the top 4, then I'm happy.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

That list above was intriguing, hard to make a good assessment (because my name is not Bricklayer, Cap. Fact, are hammystyl) due to the fact that the draft system changed a little bit in the past 16 years. Even still, it gives me a little bit of comfort to see #3 getting top four or (much) better all but three times, I think that's a positive on the horizon maybe, I donno what do you guys think?

There's not much of an assessment to be made from the history. Keep in mind that it's a very small sample size. We know the probabilities exactly from the math - they've been listed a few times in this thread - and those probabilities hold so long as the ball selection process is actually random. The one thing that seems clear is that the history over the past 16 years is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the ball selection process is indeed random. We understand the process, it looks random to us, it gives short-term results that look random...we should assume it's random and take the quoted numbers (15.6% for the 1st pick, etc.) as our best estimate. That's my take.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

There's not much of an assessment to be made from the history. Keep in mind that it's a very small sample size. We know the probabilities exactly from the math - they've been listed a few times in this thread - and those probabilities hold so long as the ball selection process is actually random. The one thing that seems clear is that the history over the past 16 years is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the ball selection process is indeed random. We understand the process, it looks random to us, it gives short-term results that look random...we should assume it's random and take the quoted numbers (15.6% for the 1st pick, etc.) as our best estimate. That's my take.

How in Hades did Chi get that 1st pick? Amazing

 

[Vlade4GM]

The statistical odds are the statistical odds. What happened in history has absolutely no bearing on the probabilities of this lottery.

 

[Chupacabra]

The statistical odds are the statistical odds. What happened in history has absolutely no bearing on the probabilities of this lottery.

Except for when David Stern doesnt get caught with his hand in the ping pong ball jar. That made little to no sense. I apologize.

 

[mac]

Except for when David Stern doesnt get caught with his hand in the ping pong ball jar. That made little to no sense. I apologize.

If only I was good at photoshop... The idea is priceless

 

[gunks]

Evans is on Carmichael Dave's show right now..he said if he could have anyone ...

"Give me Cousins"

Let's grant him his wish

Reke/Cuz, that would be a pretty bruising duo. Not to mention the Brockness monster coming off the bench. And then we'd have the pesky toughness of Omri and Mandry (and I guess Noc) as well.

Depending on how the draft goes, we could end up with a pretty hard nosed team next season.


Also: Thank Jeebus Monroe is going back to school. I could totally see GP "reaching" for him, over Favors and Cousins.

 

[jalfa]

Interesting...I wouldnt complain one bit if we got Cousins...even though I'm in Favor of drafting Derrick. We'll have to see. Anyone seen this kid from Serbia, Miroslav Raduljica? Watched him a bit and he's got skills...good in the post...very good passer, especially in the lanes, decent outside shot, good size(7'0/235). I'd definitely look at him with our 2nd round pick if he's still available.

His outside shot, as far as I saw it, wasn't that good. Anyway, a few things were said about some weeks ago and I think you can trust piksi's judgment:

However, I did like Zeleznik's starting centre quite a lot, I think Raduljica was his name. Had great court vision and post offense, also a pretty good rebounder with nice size. I think his defense lacked at times and he wasn't as quick as I would like my starting centre to be, but he did have a great battle with Jason Boone.

Raduljica doesn't have NBA potential. He is decent.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Also: Thank Jeebus Monroe is going back to school. I could totally see GP "reaching" for him, over Favors and Cousins.

Is this based off of new information, or off of Monroe's immediate reaction to the reporter after Georgetown was unceremoniously bumped out of the tournament? Because a snap statement is all I've seen to that effect, and those have proven in the past to be notoriously unreliable, especially when made by players who are projected to be top-ten picks.

 

[LPKingsFan]

If only I was good at photoshop... The idea is priceless

No need for photoshop. It's established history

 

[ElRey]

The numbers are looking pretty sweet!

With the 3rd worst record secured:

Odds of #1: 15.6%!!!
Odds of #2: 15.7%!!
Odds of #3: 15.6%!
Odds of #4: 22.6%
Odds of #5: 26.5%
Odds of $6: 4%

Odds of a Top 1-2 pick: 31.3%!!!
Odds of a Top 1-3 pick: 46.9%!!

Odds of a Top 4 pick: 69.5%
Odds of a Top 5 pick: 96%

Dang, our highest odds is the #5 pick? Based on our history, we probably getting pick #5 then.

If we crack the top 4, I'll be happy

 

[D13]

Dang, our highest odds is the #5 pick? Based on our history, we probably getting pick #5 then.

Ugg buzz kill... I prefer to think of it this way; right now there are 11 other teams that would trade places with our lottery chances in a millisecond...

 

[eflat]

Dang, our highest odds is the #5 pick? Based on our history, we probably getting pick #5 then.

If we crack the top 4, I'll be happy

Another way to look at it is we have a 69.5% chance of being top 4 like you want.

 

[fnordius]

right now there are 11 other teams that would trade places with our lottery chances in a millisecond...

27 teams, even! Why leave out the 16 that have zero ping pong balls?

 

[Schmoe]

It's actually a little depressing that I just marked May 18th in my calendar. Sigh.

 

[Kingster]

Dang, our highest odds is the #5 pick? Based on our history, we probably getting pick #5 then.

If we crack the top 4, I'll be happy

No, you're reading it wrong. The odds of the Kings getting 1,2,3,4 or 5 are 96%, not the odds of getting the 5th pick.

 

[ElRey]

No, you're reading it wrong. The odds of the Kings getting 1,2,3,4 or 5 are 96%, not the odds of getting the 5th pick.

No, our highest odds for each individual pick is the 5th pick at 25 or something %, compared to like 15-22% for each pick 1-4. last year our highest odds was at pick 4 and that's the pick we got! But I see what you guys are saying with how we have a 69% chance of getting top 4. I get nervous about our lottery chances, I'm a Kings fan afterall.

 

[hrdboild]

The important thing is that it wasn't the end of the world when we got the 4th pick last year and it won't be the end of the world if we get 5th or 6th this year. Obviously we'd all prefer to get one of the top guys, but we're going to get a very good player regardless. And we're still going to have a lot of cap space and Tyreke Evans. Things could be worse.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

The statistical odds are the statistical odds. What happened in history has absolutely no bearing on the probabilities of this lottery.

I feel like we should sticky this phrase to the top of the personnel moves board at the end of every season. I swear, April and Mare seem to be spent with people debating the odds of us getting certain picks every season. But unless you think it's actually rigged, the odds don't change regardless of past outcomes. It's not like blackjack where you can count cards, the odds reset every year.