Can the Monarchs Pull Off a Playoff Miracle

Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#1
#1
I can't believe, that the Monarchs after this dismal, dreadful season on the floor, are still within realistic striking distance of making another playoff bid :eek:

And regardless of our own personal feelings of whether they deserve, not deserve, do you want to make the playoffs, or begin the building process of trying to get a great lottery pick, that coach and those 11 young ladies, see themselves just 3 GAMES OUT OF THE FOURTH SPOT, WITH 8 GAMES STILL TO PLAY.

So for kicks on a Saturday morning, lets have a little fun and lay out the Monarchs best and most realistic chance to enter into the post season.

1. Los Angeles MUST continue to play well and get the #3.

2. Minnesota and San Antonio must continue to struggle to allow Sacramento even a chance to catch them.

3. *Sacramento in my mind must win every single game at home, and at least 2 out of 3 on their final road trip. We should know more very, very early as both San Antonio and Minny have very tough road games this weekend, entering into key playoff caliber games.

4. Sacramento must beat both Minnesota and San Antonio in their remaining head to heads, both at Arco Arena (if that means anything anymore:rolleyes:)

5. In my mind, both San Antonio and Minny have a much more difficult schedule than do the Monarchs, so this is very, very, doable, if the Monarchs can get a little help.

REMAINING SCHEDULES (Key Games affecting Monarchs in Purple)

L.A. SPARKS 12-13, with 9 games remaining (6 HOME, 3 ROAD)
8/23 @ Atlanta
8/25 VS SKY
8/27 VS MERCURY
8/30 VS SUN
9/1 VS DREAM
9/5 @ San Antonio
9/8 VS SILVER STARS
9/11 VS LYNX
9/13 @ Phoenix


MINNY LYNX 11-14, with 9 games remaining (3 HOME, 6 ROAD)
8/22 @ Connecticut
8/23 @ New York
8/28 VS MONARCHS
8/30 @ Washington
9/1 @ San Antonio
9/5 VS STORM
9/9 VS SHOCK
9/11 @ Los Angeles
9/13 @ Sacramento


S.A. S.STARS 11-15, with 8 games remaining (4 HOME, 4 ROAD)
8/23 @ Detroit
8/27 @ Indiana
8/29 vs SHOCK
9/1 vs LYNX
9/5 vs SPARKS
9/8 @ Los Angeles
9/10 @ Sacramento
9/12 vs STORM


SAC MONARCHS 8-18, with 8 games remaining (5 HOME, 3 ROAD)
8/22 vs MYSTICS
8/25 @ Atlanta
8/28 @ Minnesota
8/29 @ Indiana
9/1 vs SUN
9/4 vs DREAM
9/10 vs SILVER STARS
9/13 vs LYNX
 
6th

6th

Homer Fan Since 1985
#2
#2
Without looking at everyone's schedule I would say making the playoffs is a pipedream. Now that I have looked, I have to say it is certainly possible. I still do not expect it, but it is possible.

San Antonio and Minnesota have much more difficult schedules than we have. Ours is no cake walk, but it is easier than theirs. The only question I have is whether the Monarchs can CONSISTENTLY put together 4 qtrs (or at least 3) of good basketball and be competitive. The M's Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde approach to the season is what will keep me from getting my hopes up.

Based solely on talent, the Monarchs could still make it to the playoffs. But, as we have seen this year, the Ms have not been reliable enough for me to make that prediction.

p.s. Thanks for putting that together for us, PR. :)
 
M

mdme

Bench
#4
#4
Well for starters,

MINs games are against a collective 97-120, while the M's games are against a collective 106-96 while SAN is against 94-99. I don't agree that the M's have the easiest sked. I know that we have the most home games, but I don't think they mean much this season. Both MIN and SAN have BETTER home records than us. in fact SAN has a winning home record. At the rate the M's are going, I don't think the M's are gonna make it. Which may not entirely bad since IMO, they need new talent and the only way they can do that is with a high (top hopefully) draft pick.
 
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Monty'sBiggestFan

Monty'sBiggestFan

Starter
#5
#5
Although Minnesota, San Antonio and Los Angeles keep it mathemathically possible, I thought they sealed their lottery fate (to be a broken record to those who've listened to me rant about this) when they lost those two games at home to Seattle and Detroit.

If I managed to ignore the reasons why I felt those games were vital "must wins" to stay in the playoff conversation....their lost recently to Los Angeles put a hole in the balloon again. They dropped the tie break to the team directly ahead of them in the standings, and probably the only other team moving in a positive direction out of Min, San and themselves. Sub-.500 was always a possibility for a playoff spot, which is why I think Whisenant took over in the first place. But the inconsistency the Monarchs have been mirred in has taken their sub .500 finish projections to absurd levels.

To me, there are no "key games affecting the Monarchs" Every game the three teams directly ahead of them play affects them at this point. The Monarchs also need to win more than 2 games in a row and have that happen more than once a month, period. True, they have to win the 3 they have coming up against Minn and SA. But for those to even become relevant, they have to win all the ones before that. That LA loss hurt them BADLY and that clunker against NY, well that didn't help either.

If the Monarchs don't win out, they're done. Period. No looking at what other teams are doing, just period. Because to say they can lose two games presupposes that Min, LA and SA will schedule their losses on the same nights the Monarchs lose. But it also ticks another day off the calendar.

Not only do they not hold the keys to their own destiny, they need divine intervention by the basketball gods simply because they are nearly done with their western conference schedule.

The coach (and maybe the 11) do still see themselves as 3 out, but also acknowledge that they have the longest odds of any team to make it.
 
D

Den-Den

Bench
#7
#7
Making the playoffs seems like a long shot, but it sure is nice that we are even talking about it! It was like watching the Monarchs of old against the Fever :)

Bring home another win tonight!
 
StevenHW

StevenHW

Starter
#8
#8
First of all, thanks to Purple Reign for the analysis. Of the teams, that PR mentioned, the Sparks have the schedule in their favor, with so many home games down the stretch. I cannot help but to think the WNBA schedule-makers knew that Candace Parker was not going to join the team until mid-way through the season after giving birth, so they loaded the team with a lot of road games in the first-half of the season. Just another example of how the WNBA office want to grant favored status to their appointed star players. :mad:

Before anyone misunderstands, I do not want the Monarchs to just lie down for the rest of the season.

As ClayK has mentioned on this board and on RebKell, the Monarchs are paying the price of having too many playoffs appearances in a row (as strange as that may sound), but also for not having a lot of really higher-ranked WNBA Draft picks (which is largely Whiz's fault). The last time the team had a really high draft-pick was Chantelle Anderson at #2 in '03, and her career turned out to be an oft-injured disappoinment. :(

But quite frankly, I think it's better that the Monarchs don't make the playoffs this year. The M's have already clinched a sub-.500 record this year, the last time that's happened was back in 2002. And I just don't like the idea that a below-.500 team can get into post-season play. Maybe because it reminds me too much of what the NHL does: everybody and their aunt gets into the playoffs. :mad:

I do, however, like the idea that Monarchs could play the "spoiler" role for other teams that are likely to be in the playoffs. Last Thursday's win over the Indy Fever is one such example. Tonight's game vs. the Washington Mystics is another. So, I'm hoping the M's will play for pride and wreck other team's hopes. :)
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#9
#9
Monty'sBiggestFan said:
If the Monarchs don't win out, they're done. Period. No looking at what other teams are doing, just period. Because to say they can lose two games presupposes that Min, LA and SA will schedule their losses on the same nights the Monarchs lose. But it also ticks another day off the calendar.
Click to expand...
Absolutely, they have to win out, even though I think a loss on the road will not destroy the chance.

The reason for this thread is to acknowledge that it is incredible that at 8-18, IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE to speak about this. I will say this:

The Monarchs are 5-5 in their last 10
Brunson is 16.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 61% shooting her last 5 games:eek:
And have not had a sustained win streak yet
And we have as complete of a roster as we have all season long, with the addition of Haynie

It is do-able, not impossible. I would much rather go to the playoffs than to play ping pong in the lottery.:cool:
 
Monty'sBiggestFan

Monty'sBiggestFan

Starter
#10
#10
That's all true PR...but that they are even in the conversation is not by their own doing so it's hard to extend it to the conclusion that they have a legitimate shot. Legitimacy comes from having some control over their destiny. The Monarchs have zero, probably less than zero. They "improve" to zero control of their destiny by winning out. They can't lose a game, period. How can they lose a game when they still trail 2 teams for a spot? Let alone have margin for error to lose 2 games?

Before they can get into the equation the Monarchs have to get to 11 wins and at a minium 7 conference wins (they'll actually need 8 conference wins since they have to win out in conference). They have 8 games to do the former and 3 to do the latter. (Now, we're presupposing that Minn and SA don't win another game between now and the Ms reaching 11/8). Then factor that the two they can't lose are any against those two teams ...so that drops it down to 5 games in which you can pencil in a loss while you also try to get to 11 wins in order to make the games against Minn and SA still be relevant. That's not very good odds.

Until they win more than 2 games in a row, I won't consider the math necessary to make the playoffs happen here. Only plus in the M's favor - which quite frankly to me is what has kept the door cracked open? Minnesota needs to play 2 more games than the Monarchs.

Everybody would rather go to the playoffs than the lottery, but time isn't their friend.
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#12
#12
Mr. S£im Citrus said:
This amuses me beyond my capacity for vocabulary.
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Well let me repeat it for you just in case you missed it the first time.

"We have as complete of a roster as we have had all season". Period.

The operative words here are "as we have had". Not as complete as it can be, but "as we have had" meaning that for the first time this season with a healthy Brunson, a decent back up point guard and one less post clogging the roster, the group is as competitive and balance as it has been at any time in 2009.
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#14
#14
I know some may be thouroughly annoyed for me doing this, but until the Monarchs are officially eliminated here it goes.


4. S.A. 11-16
5. Minny 11-16
6. MONARCHS 9-18

2.0 Games Back
 
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R

RDub21

Bench
#15
#15
Purple Reign said:
I know some may be thouroughly annoyed for me doing this, but until the Monarchs are officially eliminated here it goes.


4. S.A. 11-15
5. Minny 11-15
6. MONARCHS 9-18

2.5 Games Back
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I think it's cool that we're still in the playoff hunt, we're not dead so why not have something to be excited about? That being said, if we're looking long term, imo it's in the the Monarch's best interest to "tank" by letting the youngsters play more (FREE BODDIE!!! ;))
 
M

mdme

Bench
#16
#16
RDub21 said:
I think it's cool that we're still in the playoff hunt, we're not dead so why not have something to be excited about? That being said, if we're looking long term, imo it's in the the Monarch's best interest to "tank" by letting the youngsters play more (FREE BODDIE!!! ;))
Click to expand...
I agree, if the M's can get a TOP rookie next season, it should help them in the long run. I'm not sure "tanking" will be the solution though.
 
Monty'sBiggestFan

Monty'sBiggestFan

Starter
#17
#17
I ain't mad atchya PR...just call me when the Ms have reached 11 wins (and 7 conference wins)...because until they do that, the math is immaterial right now. Unless Orender strips Minny and SA of wins between now and the end of the season or something ;)


Monarchs unmagic number is (roughly) 6 - any combination of Ms losses and SA/Minny wins and the Ms are officially lottery bound. Unless they earn the tiebreaker against either team.

It would behoove them to sweep this roady...(oh, and win out too while they are at it but sweeping the roady is paramount)
 
kennadog

kennadog

Dog On It!
#18
#18
I'm very glad this team is still fighting. I can't get excited about going to the playoffs, just for the sake of going to the playoffs. Who really thinks we'd actually win the championship this year? I'd rather play hard and hope for a high draft pick. This team could use it.
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#19
#19
kennadog said:
I'm very glad this team is still fighting. I can't get excited about going to the playoffs, just for the sake of going to the playoffs. Who really thinks we'd actually win the championship this year? I'd rather play hard and hope for a high draft pick. This team could use it.
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I would normally agree under normal circumstances that if the Monarchs did get into the playoffs, what chance would they have in competing? However (and you all can call me Purple "However" from now on:D) but however, this year's playoff competition in my view is WIDE OPEN. There is no consensus favorite. You have Phoenix and Indiana, both whom the Monarchs have competed very well and six other teams hovering around .500

I am not saying that the Monarchs can win a championship, I am not saying they can win a round. Shoot, people think I am crazy for even considering that they "can" be in the postseason. I am just saying that the team that I have seen since the All Star Break (5 wins 4 losses, a healthy productive Brunson, a roster that is as balanced as it has been all season, a better defense, and a coach with experience) can compete with every other team in this league.

But it may be too little too late, and if that is the case I will take a high draft pick!
 
kennadog

kennadog

Dog On It!
#20
#20
The chips will fall however they may. If the Monarchs go to the playoffs, I'll root for them like crazy. There just isn't much special about going to the playoffs, just to be there, unless you are a young team on the way up. We so need someone really top notch out of this draft, in my opinion. Being out of the lottery for so long, I think other teams have passed us by in the talent department. I love the grit, competiviness and determination our ladies are showing. Now I'd like to add a player to give everything a real boost, including our team members.
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#21
#21
Not Likely, but not Impossible

MINNY LYNX 12-17, with 5 games remaining (2 HOME, 3 ROAD)
9/1 @ San Antonio
9/5 VS STORM
9/9 VS SHOCK
9/11 @ Los Angeles
9/13 @ Sacramento


S.A. S.STARS 12-17, with 5 games remaining (3 HOME, 2 ROAD)
9/1 vs LYNX
9/5 vs SPARKS
9/8 @ Los Angeles
9/10 @ Sacramento
9/12 vs STORM


SAC MONARCHS 10-20, with 4 games remaining (4 HOME, 0 ROAD)
9/1 vs SUN
9/4 vs DREAM
9/10 vs SILVER STARS
9/13 vs LYNX


Simple Math Scenario - Monarchs go 4-0, Silver Stars go 1-4, Lynx go 1-4
MONARCHS ARE IN!!!

Simple Tie Break Scenario - There are very few. With the Monarchs only having 5 Conference Wins, it would take a miracle to over take either team in Conference wins.

Schedule Difficulty - All three teams play playoff contending teams. Monarchs get the obvious advantage due to home court. After that, San Antonio and Minny have equal schedules playing common teams except Detroit on Minny's schedule. San Antonio gets the slight edge due to playing Minny at home and three home games.
 
Monty'sBiggestFan

Monty'sBiggestFan

Starter
#23
#23
From a more complex gut calculation perspective, Minny's loss last night did more to hurt the Monarchs improbable playoff chances than helped. Besides reducing the unmagic number to 2, it also took a tie breaker away from Sac. Monarchs REAAAAAAAAAAAALLY needed Minny in the 4th spot instead of SA.
 
M

mdme

Bench
#24
#24
:( the biggest problem here is being 3 behind in the loss column. The monarchs are beginning to play better but it's probably too late. If minny had augustus healthy, this thread probably won't exist.
 
D

Den-Den

Bench
#25
#25
Monty'sBiggestFan said:
From a more complex gut calculation perspective, Minny's loss last night did more to hurt the Monarchs improbable playoff chances than helped. Besides reducing the unmagic number to 2, it also took a tie breaker away from Sac. Monarchs REAAAAAAAAAAAALLY needed Minny in the 4th spot instead of SA.
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Aren't we 2-1 vs San Antonio and 1-2 vs Minnie? Is so, than the best that we can do is tie Minnie, in which case we would loose in a tie-breaker situation because they would have a better Western Conf record than us. With San Antonio, if we beat them we win out-right 3-1 and there would not be a tie-breaker.

Is this right, or do I have the records mixed up for these two teams? It's been a longgggggggg week :eek:

Either way--it sure is nice to see them play ball like they did last night with the "Beast". I think that Bekka has a new nickname. (Although I am quite partial to Air Brunson):D
 
Monty'sBiggestFan

Monty'sBiggestFan

Starter
#26
#26
Minny currently is only one game better in the conference record tie break than the Monarchs are, which would essentially be erased by the M's beating them. They have one more conf game left than the Monarchs as well.

San Antonio sits at 8-8 in conf and the best the Monarchs can get to is 7-13. And with San Antonio, the Monarchs have to win out.

It's a long shot either way, just the longness is less with Minny @ 4 ;)
 
StevenHW

StevenHW

Starter
#28
#28
Monty'sBiggestFan said:
The answer is now officially, no. Everybody get your lucky lottery charms ready
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Why do I get the feeling that, regardless of what the Monarchs' final regular season record will be, that the New York Liberty will be the winner of the draft lottery? :(

It seems that the lottery ball "bounces" in favor of teams that are (1.) laden with star players, or (2.) located in a major media market, which is what New York is. :mad:
 
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