More hope...... maybe I shouldn't (Rubio rumor)

Peter_Gibbons · May 21, 2009

Ok not to argue with you on this, but just to discuss this.

I agree some of the arguements. But couple key points is that if Rubio really doesn't want to go to Memphis or OKC, he still has time to pull out of the draft. He does not have to stay in it and get drafted by either of those teams and get stuck. You are right that if they draft him regardless, he has no option but to come over now because he would be stuck under them. He can withdraw and just enter the draft again next yr. I doubt his stock will drop below top 3 for next yr.

But the key is he can withdraw his name still. So if this is in fact true, his agent needs to approach the Kings and get them to do a deal with the Grizz ASAP. Can't wait until after the deadline. Too much uncertainty for the teams and Rubio himself going into the draft.

There has been reports that Grizz likes Thabeet a lot. Will OKC ruin the Kings chances by taking Thabeet at 3? There has been mention that OKC likes Harden. So if the Grizz really takes Thabeet, the Kings trade with OKC.

kennadog · May 21, 2009

First, Rubio isn't a prima donna demanding things. These are merely anonymous rumors. Even if true they are comments coming from his agent, not Rubio, so lighten up on the kid a little.

I would have to think the issue is primarily playing time.

Background issue might be that California has a very large spanish-speaking population and is more of an ethnic/cultural/racial mix than either Tennesse or Oklahoma. Might make it seem like more a comfortable fit that way. (Although I am not forgetting that Spain and Latin American countries have almost nothing in common, except laguage.)

hrdboild · May 21, 2009

I think the California element does play a role for sure. I keep hearing how the climate in Sacramento is very similar to Spain, and in So Cal at least there's just as many Spanish speakers as English speakers. The kid belongs in LA really. It's too good of a fit. He'd even have Pau Gasol living nearby now. Sacramento also might look appealing right now because it's a guaranteed starting spot from day one.

Honestly, I wouldn't get too excited about this. I think the Clippers are bluffing about keeping Blake Griffin. They know they can't move Zach Randolph. What I expect to happen is the Clippers draft Blake Griffin, and trade him to OKC for Ricky Rubio. Memphis most likely takes Hasheem Thabeet unless they want to try and draft Rubio and try to pry some spare parts from LA or OKC. But ultimately, whatever the other pieces are, it looks like Rubio goes to LA, Thabeet goes to Memphis, and Griffin goes to Oklahoma City. Everyone gets who they want. Baron Davis is going to be traded, probably to Houston for TMac's expiring, though Golden State is also possible.

kennadog · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

No Cal, too, for sure.

gunks · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

I think the California element does play a role for sure. I keep hearing how the climate in Sacramento is very similar to Spain, and in So Cal at least there's just as many Spanish speakers as English speakers. The kid belongs in LA really. It's too good of a fit. He'd even have Pau Gasol living nearby now. Sacramento also might look appealing right now because it's a guaranteed starting spot from day one.

Honestly, I wouldn't get too excited about this. I think the Clippers are bluffing about keeping Blake Griffin. They know they can't move Zach Randolph. What I expect to happen is the Clippers draft Blake Griffin, and trade him to OKC for Ricky Rubio. Memphis most likely takes Hasheem Thabeet unless they want to try and draft Rubio and try to pry some spare parts from LA or OKC. But ultimately, whatever the other pieces are, it looks like Rubio goes to LA, Thabeet goes to Memphis, and Griffin goes to Oklahoma City. Everyone gets who they want. Baron Davis is going to be traded, probably to Houston for TMac's expiring, though Golden State is also possible.

And therein is why I am not getting my hopes up haha.

Sptsjunkie · May 21, 2009

joejoe said:

I imagine because:

1 - Sac has more of an international market/population than OKC and Memphis. Acclimating to the culture here is a big part of success for an international player. It's the same reason Yi's agent wanted him in a place like the Bay Area (Warriors) instead of Milwaukee.

2 - Rubio would get a ton of minutes here and would likely have the team built around giving him a lot of touches. In Memphis it's Mayo's team and in OKC it's both Durant's team.

3 - We already have several other European players on our roster - Noc and Beno.

Sptsjunkie · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

I think the California element does play a role for sure. I keep hearing how the climate in Sacramento is very similar to Spain, and in So Cal at least there's just as many Spanish speakers as English speakers. The kid belongs in LA really. It's too good of a fit. He'd even have Pau Gasol living nearby now. Sacramento also might look appealing right now because it's a guaranteed starting spot from day one.

Honestly, I wouldn't get too excited about this. I think the Clippers are bluffing about keeping Blake Griffin. They know they can't move Zach Randolph. What I expect to happen is the Clippers draft Blake Griffin, and trade him to OKC for Ricky Rubio. Memphis most likely takes Hasheem Thabeet unless they want to try and draft Rubio and try to pry some spare parts from LA or OKC. But ultimately, whatever the other pieces are, it looks like Rubio goes to LA, Thabeet goes to Memphis, and Griffin goes to Oklahoma City. Everyone gets who they want. Baron Davis is going to be traded, probably to Houston for TMac's expiring, though Golden State is also possible.

I'm with you on the Clippers. Although our best bet it probably to trade with Memphis for the two pick. Presti does not strike me as the type of GM who would get intimidated by posturing and threats if he really thought Rubio was the best player for his team.

hrdboild · May 21, 2009

Sptsjunkie said:

Yes, but Rubio already has to pay a huge buyout to get out of his contract. He's a star in the Euroleague and he's young enough that staying in Europe a couple years isn't going to cut into his NBA career much. In this case, Rubio's agent really does have a lot of leverage. If the Grizzlies really want Thabeet anyway, which is what multiple sources are saying right now, why would they take a chance at wasting a #2 pick on a player who's never going to play for them? They could try to trade down with us, but if OKC takes Thabeet then they still get screwed. Not to mention, they could cut OKC out altogether and just trade Rubio to LA for Griffin instead. I don't know whether OKC prefers Rubio or Thabeet, but I do know they'd rather have Griffin than either of them. If Memphis trades LA for Griffin, then they probably settle for Thabeet. As long as Thabeet, Rubio, and Griffin are the top three players I don't see that we have a shot at any of them now because LA, Memphis, and OKC are going to take them in some order. Only if someone else like Harden or Jennings or Hill sneaks into the mix in the top 3 would we have a real shot at getting Rubio or Thabeet (but not Griffin).

Sptsjunkie · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

The thing with the Grizzlies, is that if they wanted to steer clear of Rubio, I could actually see a player like Hill being a good fit for them. Gasol actually had a very good rookie year at Center. Not that they would object to upgrading there anyway, but I am not sure it's a pressing need unless they are enamored with Thabeet. On the other hand, they are currently playing two undersized PFs (Warrick and Arthur) at PF. Hill's rebounding and defense would fit in well there, especially if they could pick up another player (Greene) or pick from us (23 and/or 31).

If the Grizzlies take Thabeet, then OKC could also be a good trading partner if Rubio hasn't already pulled out of the draft. I wonder how much it would cost us to trade up one spot. I would think giving them the #23 should be enough.

hrdboild · May 21, 2009

Sptsjunkie said:

The thing with the Grizzlies, is that if they wanted to steer clear of Rubio, I could actually see a player like Hill being a good fit for them. Gasol actually had a very good rookie year at Center. Not that they would object to upgrading there anyway, but I am not sure it's a pressing need unless they are enamored with Thabeet. On the other hand, they are currently playing two undersized PFs (Warrick and Arthur) at PF. Hill's rebounding and defense would fit in well there, especially if they could pick up another player (Greene) or pick from us (23 and/or 31).

If the Grizzlies take Thabeet, then OKC could also be a good trading partner if Rubio hasn't already pulled out of the draft. I wonder how much it would cost us to trade up one spot. I would think giving them the #23 should be enough.

Like I said, if the Grizzlies decide that Hill is a top 3 player on their board, then we're in business.

Sptsjunkie · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

I don't know that they have to believe Hill is a top 3 player. We would be giving them more in a trade, so they would only need to believe that Hill + #23 + swapping out a worse contract/Donte Greene/#31 is worth more than Thabeet or a disgruntled Rubio staying overseas. Don't mean to split heairs, but it's an important difference, since we are not talking about them passing up on Rubio/Thabeet for Hill, but trading down.

beb0p · May 21, 2009

Peter_Gibbons said:

I understand your point. I've pointed out in an older thread that it makes sense for Rubio to come out this year. If he goes back to Europe, he may as well stay for two years because it makes no sense for him to come out next year. For one, he still has to pay a buyout. Two, he won't be the best PG in the draft (Ahem, John Wall). Three, next year's draft is deeper so he risks sliding down. Four, there will be teams that Fegan disapproves of high in the lottery next year too. Five, he (or rather Fegan) loses momentum in the buyout negotiation. Six, serious injury. You can never rule it out. Seventh, God forbid if Rubio has a disappointing season in ACB.

And lastly, Fegan. An agent is always looking out for his own pocket. If Rubio goes back, Fegan earns no commission. Rubio is a goldmine and a smart agent will never turn down millions now in favor of earning similar amount next year. No way, the risk to reward is simply too high for Fegan to walk away now.

Rubio is going to be in this draft. I've said so months ago. The latest tactic is just a bluff. If the Grizz drafts Rubio, Fegan will object, he will moan and groan and threaten to have his client go AWOL. But at the end of day, Fegan will release Rubio to the Grizz because no one walks away from commission on a multi-million deal.

However, it remains to be seen if Memphis likes Rubio over Thabeet. If Memphis drafts Thabeet, there may be a chance to make a deal with OKC. But you're right that a swap with Memphis probably doesn't work because OKC will pick Thabeet and ruin Memphis' target.

hrdboild · May 21, 2009

Sptsjunkie said:

Yeah, you're right -- that is a different situation when you add in the other assets. But I still think it comes down to how those top three teams evaluate Thabeet, Griffin, and Rubio. Memphis is in a great spot at #2. If they think those three guys are significantly better than the rest of the draft, they could probably work out a trade that gets them any one of those guys. So trading down for Hill is really only in play for them if they're not sold on Thabeet, Rubio, or Griffin. I'm pretty sure LA wants Rubio though so they can get rid of Davis' contract. If that is the case, than OKC and Memphis are both going to be making offers for Griffin with the loser settling for Thabeet.

Kingster · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

Are you trying to make friends and influence people on Kings' board?

Sptsjunkie · May 21, 2009

hrdboild said:

I agree. The funny thing is that everyone acts like getting rid of Baron is some sort of lock. His contract is long and expensive. I keep reading that GS would take him back, but my Warriors friends all seem to talk at the idea. Most of them are ready to move forward with their young nucleus and just don't see what adding and aging, shoot first PG with a long contract brings to the table.

hrdboild · May 21, 2009

Kingster said:

I'm no fan of LA, the city or the sports teams, but I do live here and I'm constantly amazed how many people in this city speak Spanish and don't speak English. It feels like I'm in a different country sometimes. I've lived in Nor Cal just as long (longer actually), before I moved here, and while San Francisco and Sacramento are very multi-cultural cities, believe me it's nothing like LA. Rubio wants to go to LA, he would fit in LA, and the Clippers are desperate for anything that will attract attention away from the Lakers. Seems like a perfect fit to me. I'm not totally sold on Rubio as the next great PG of his generation anyway, but if he's going to be big, I can't think of a better place to do it.

hrdboild · May 21, 2009

Sptsjunkie said:

I think Houston brings him in. They got a taste of playoff success this year and we know all too well what that does to a franchise. Aaron Brooks was great for them, but game 7 exposed his weaknesses. It'd be nice to have a proven veteran to share minutes with Brooks. They're ready to move on from TMac anyway and he's got a huge expiring contract which is perfect for acquiring Baron Davis and Marcus Camby. The Clippers get to see what McGrady has left for a year while getting a do-over on the Baron Davis mistake. Winning the lottery probably saved that franchise 5 years of suckitude.

I should add that we have a pretty promising off-season ahead of us too. Two first round draft picks and a new coach will do a lot to change the personality of this team. We're not as screwed up as the Clippers are so we probably don't need to win the lottery to turn our franchise around anyway. We just have to make the right decisions.

bench_blob · May 21, 2009

nbrans said:

O right, you like Teague over Rubio, who scored about 3 points in the NCAA tournament.

nbrans · May 21, 2009

bench_blob said:

Yup. Sure do.

beb0p · May 21, 2009

Don't sleep on Teague. The guy has the best combo of size, skill and athleticism in this year's crop of PG. He may turn out to be a taller Nate Robinson.

... And Petrie likes Nate Robinson.

Not that I'm implying anythiing.

Peter_Gibbons · May 21, 2009

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=12721

GRIZZLIES looking to trade #2 pick

"we're being told that the Grizzlies would rather have the $3 million they'd likely get from a team looking to move up, as well as a slightly lower pick. "

Smills91 · May 21, 2009

Media Market sizes are directly correlated to endorsement dollars. More people = more influence = More $$$. Rubio needs $$$ to come over as he owes 7-8 million for his buy out.

LA = #2 Media market size
Sacramento #16

OKC = #36
Memphis #48

Sacramento is NOT a small market. In fact, it's media market is bigger than those of Denver, Detroit, Atlanta etc.

Smills91 · May 21, 2009

Peter_Gibbons said:

Do it yesterday Petrie.!

vikinginferno · May 21, 2009

Peter_Gibbons said:

That would be perfect for us if it really is true, which I am fairly doubtful. But if it is, then there is no reason not to.

beb0p · May 21, 2009

Peter_Gibbons said:

Interesting. If I'm the Grizz I'd go with Conley over Rubio too but it's a little surprising they don't want Thabeet.

If this is true there's going to be competition for the pick, although we'd have the triumph card of offering the #4 plus cash.

But that is assuming GP wants Rubio. I don't know at this point that Petrie is as sold on him as some of you are.

KevinSalvadori · May 21, 2009

It would make sense for Memphis to want out of the 2nd for cash to get a player like Hill, but would #4, cash, and another pick be enough? I still fear LA is the sleeper in this equation.......it would be a big coup, and although Griffin is a monster, I think there is a major disinformation campaign going on by LA at the minute.

vikinginferno · May 21, 2009

KevinSalvadori said:

I think the 4, cash, and the 23 pick or a future conditional pick should be enough. I would be pretty excited if this happened.

Warhawk · May 21, 2009

vikinginferno said:

I'd be down with that.

ParniValjak · May 21, 2009

Peter_Gibbons said:

So let me get this straight, Grizzlies are looking for $3 million in cash and a to move down in the draft. Would $3million and 4th pick be a bit much?

Hell would Maloofs even consider handing over $3million?! I very much doubt it. If we could do $3million and pick 23 that would be sen-bloody-sational!

Then we could hope for OKC to fall in love with Harden which would mean Rubio (#2) and Thabeet (#4) round out a great young unit taking us forward. Land a big FA at SF and we would be on our way!

Gary · May 21, 2009

Well what if it's something like this...

Mem trades
Marc Gasol
#2

Sac trades
KT (expiring)
#4
#23 (or #31)
JT or Hawes

Would you all do that?

More hope...... maybe I shouldn't (Rubio rumor)

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