Wild Wild West Standings and Playoff Scenarios

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Monday, September 1st

Okee, through results tonight, here's what we're looking at...

1. San Antonio (19-10)
2. Seattle (18-10) -0.5
3. Los Angeles (18-12) -1.5
4. Sacramento (16-13) -3.0
5. Minnesota (14-14) -4.5
5. Houston (14-14) -4.5
7. Phoenix (12-16) -6.5

Between now and the next time the Monarchs take the home floor, here's where they and the rest of the west will be...

Tues
New York @ Houston
Seattle @ Atlanta

Weds
Minnesota @ Phoenix

Thurs
Seattle @ Chicago

Fri
Los Angeles @ San Antonio
Sacramento @ Phoenix

Sat
Los Angeles @ Houston
Minnesota @ Seattle

Sun
San Antonio @ Connecticut
Phoenix @ Houston
Minnesota @ Sacramento

I see Houston no worse than 2-1, Minnesota could be 1-2, Phoenix better lose on Friday and I otherwise think they've been toast since the end of July and thus don't care about their record this week. I say San Antonio splits their week but should win both and Seattle goes 2-1. Los Angeles could run the table, they smell the #1 seed right now.

Sacramento NEEEEEDS a 2-0 week...... and CAN'T lose that game on Sunday. 19 wins gets them a berth I think if they win out this week and Houston loses once.

 

[NothinButHoops]

Thank-you Liberty...major props to Jmac...she was on fire. Matched Becky Hammons 33 point performance form her Liberty days.

Tina Thompson was clutch as well. Appreciate the help NY...McCarville you rock!!

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Tuesday, September 2nd

1. San Antonio (19-10)
2. Seattle (19-10)
3. Los Angeles (18-12) -1.5
4. Sacramento (16-13) -3.0
5. Minnesota (14-14) -4.5
6. Houston (14-15) -5.0
7. Phoenix (12-16) -6.5

New York @ Houston
Seattle @ Atlanta

Thank you indeed Liberty, this gives the Monarchs some breathing room - going 2 games up with 5 left to play. What it did not do was help the Monarchs in the tiebreaker should it come down to the conference record tie breaker, Houston remains I believe a game up there. But as of today, the best record the Comets can finish with is 19-15, the Monarchs' is 21-13 and the Lynx' is 20-14.

Magic number as to Houston is 4.
Magic number as to Minnesota is 5-ish...

All eyes on the Valley of the Sun on Wednesday - Go Merc!! But for it to matter, the Monarchs must handle their business this week.

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Wednesday, September 3rd

1. San Antonio (19-10)
2. Seattle (19-10)
3. Los Angeles (18-12) -1.5
4. Sacramento (16-13) -3.0
5. Houston (14-15) -5.0
5. Minnesota (14-15) -5.0
7. Phoenix (12-16) -6.0


Minnesota @ Phoenix

Monarchs magic number to clinch their spot is now 4 for Minnesota and Houston.


Monarchs just need to take care of business this week....2-0

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Thursday, September 4th

1. Seattle (20-10)
2. San Antonio (19-10)-0.5
3. Los Angeles (18-12) -2.0
4. Sacramento (16-13) -3.5
5. Houston (14-15) -5.5
5. Minnesota (14-15) -5.5
7. Phoenix (12-16) -6.5

Seattle @ Chicago

There is now one fewer playoff spot available, Seattle clinches the first Western Conference playoff berth. I sorta think they might have clinched it last night with Minnesota's loss, because I think they have the tie breaker over both Houston and Minnesota and with five games remaining and them being five games back without holding a tie break? I can do that math...

Friday, another ticket can be punched by whoever wins the game between San Antonio and Los Angeles. (GOOOOOOOOOOO SILVERSTARS!!). If San Antonio loses they keep Houston's slim hope of knocking them out of the playoffs alive.

A loss by the Sparks and win by the Monarchs, keeps the M's slim chance to get the third spot alive. A lotta interesting stuff happens if the Sparks win, but I'll crunch all that if it happens...(GOOOOOOOOO SILVERSTARS)

(GOOOOOOOOOOOOO SILVERSTARS)

 

[uncommonclay]

1. Seattle (20-10)
2. San Antonio (19-10)-0.5
3. Los Angeles (18-12) -2.0
4. Sacramento (16-13) -3.5
5. Houston (14-15) -5.5
5. Minnesota (14-15) -5.5
7. Phoenix (12-16) -6.5

Seattle @ Chicago

There is now one fewer playoff spot available, Seattle clinches the first Western Conference playoff berth. I sorta think they might have clinched it last night with Minnesota's loss, because I think they have the tie breaker over both Houston and Minnesota and with five games remaining and them being five games back without holding a tie break? I can do that math...

-- one thing i ike aout this math, is that it does do itself in the end ... ; )

Friday, another ticket can be punched by whoever wins the game between San Antonio and Los Angeles. (GOOOOOOOOOOO SILVERSTARS!!). If San Antonio loses they keep Houston's slim hope of knocking them out of the playoffs alive.

so, two tickets punched, two remaining ... Monarch's can still end up 3rd,4th,5th,6th ... 7th?

A loss by the Sparks and win by the Monarchs, keeps the M's slim chance to get the third spot alive. A lotta interesting stuff happens if the Sparks win, but I'll crunch all that if it happens...(GOOOOOOOOO SILVERSTARS)

(GOOOOOOOOOOOOO SILVERSTARS)

i don't want to jinx it ... ssshhhhhhh ....

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Yes, it's mathemathically still likely the Monarchs can finish third and it is mathematically likely they could still finish in one of the three lottery spots. In fact, I would be inclined to say the likelihood of either scenario is probably equal in terms of statistical probability - however, the only thing they can most directly control on their own is whether they clinch 4th, which I think is the higher probable outcome as things stand right now.


EDIT: strike that, one more look at the standings. Monarchs win tonight? Phoenix' playoff hopes are officially quashed. So the 7th spot could be crossed off as a possibility for the Monarchs with a win.

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Friday, September 5th

1. Seattle (20-10)
1. San Antonio (20-10)
3. Los Angeles (18-13) -3.0
4. Sacramento (16-14) -4.5
5. Houston (14-15) -5.5
5. Minnesota (14-15) -5.5
7. Phoenix (13-16) -6.5

Los Angeles @ San Antonio
Sacramento @ Phoenix

Um...'kay....the good news, the Monarchs got some help from San Antonio, the bad news is they did nothing with it...


Phoenix lives to play another day, the two 5th place teams got closer and San Antonio grabs a playoff berth.

Tomorrow, it would be nice if Seattle and Los Angeles would win their respective games. The Monarchs loss tonight makes it incredibly dicey with Houston anyway, but incredibly dicey with Houston with respect to the conference record tie-breaker. I'll delve deeper into that later but the M's now need in LA and Phoenix to beat Houston and for them to win their next two games on Sunday and Tuesday at home...that would be enough to reduce their magic number to zero anyway, but winning those home games would do wonders towards helping eliminate the third tie break which I also think is in Houston's favor right now.

Los Angeles clinches their spot with a Minnesota loss and a win in Houston.

The loss tonight was baaaad...but not BAAAAAAAAAD. They still have things in control.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

[yt=Wild Wild West?]IuDL-TcKXoY[/yt]


As long as the Monarchs still control their own destiny, I'm not worried.

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Kool Moe Dee....now THAT'S some good stuff right there...I'd be lyin if I said that song did not play in my head when I titled this thread...now it can play outside of my head when I step to this thread... thanks Slim

Beat'um down with your hands Ms......

...before you get bum' rushed....

 

[Purple Reign]

1. Seattle (20-10)
1. San Antonio (20-10)
3. Los Angeles (18-13) -3.0
4. Sacramento (16-14) -4.5
5. Houston (14-15) -5.5
5. Minnesota (14-15) -5.5
7. Phoenix (13-16) -6.5

Tomorrow, it would be nice if Seattle and Los Angeles would win their respective games. The M's now need in LA and Phoenix to beat Houston and for them to win their next two games on Sunday and Tuesday at home....

In my observation AND THIS IS COMPLETELY REALISTIC if:
Seattle beats Minny
LA beats Houston tonight, and if....
Monarchs beat Minny
Phoenix beats Houston tomorrow night the standings look like this:

4. Sacramento 17-14
5. Phoenix 15-16 (Sac owning tiebreak with Pho head to head)
5. Houston 14-17
6. Minnesota 14-17

With only three games to play!!!!

The remaining schedule beginning Tuesday looks like this:

Monarchs - VS STORM, at Houston, at San Antonio
Mercury - at Detroit, at Minnesota, at Indiana
Comets - VS SUN, VS MONARCHS, at Chicago
Lynx - VS FEVER, VS MERCURY, at Washington

In other words as you say MBF, it is in our girls very best interest to win out at home ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. Based on my calculations, if tonight goes accordingly (LA and Phoenix wins) and if the Monarchs win Sunday, regardless of anything else they clinch a playoff spot. Am I right?

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

I have the Monarchs needing two more wins since their magic number remained at 4 with their loss last night. Had they won and got that same scenario to play out then yes, they could have clinched the final berth with a win on Sunday. It's not *really* at 4 with Minnesota because of the tie break implications...that just gives the M's a bonus win with a win over the Lynx on Sunday.

If at the end of play Sunday night the Monarchs are sitting 17-14 and Phoenix is 15-16, even though they have the tie break on Phoenix, the Monarchs would have to win their 18th game to knock Phoenix out or have Phoenix lose one of their remaining three.

Under that same scenario, Minnesota would be eliminated. Houston would still be alive until the Monarchs won their 18th. If Houston and Sacramento finish the season tied and with the season series even, it would go to a conference record tie break and if they were even there, it would go to record against teams at or above .500.

As of right now....Houston's conference record is 9-8 and the Monarchs' 7-9. I rely on the league's calculations of the record against teams at or above .500 because it fluctuates based on how the records of the teams on which that calculation is based fluctuates and isn't truly calculated until the end of the regular season. The M's *might* be better there because they've been the better road team, but I wouldn't bank on that.

So, if my math is right (and I make no guarantees of this), 18 wins gets the Monarchs in if Houston loses to both Phoenix and Los Angeles.

Time to bring a little ARCO Thunder down on the visiting teams folks....

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Saturday Scoreboard Watching...

Houston and Los Angeles...

The Sparks have finished the first quarter @ Reliant, up 21-11, so far so good...

Sparks up 42-34 at the half now...still, so far so good.

Sparks up 63-51, despite come back by the Comets, at the end of the 3rd.

Comets made another run, but the Sparks dropped the hammer down to win 84-66 and should have the third playoff berth secured.

Seattle and Minnesota

6-0 opening run by the Storm with a little over 8mins to go in the 1st.

So much for that opening Storm run, Minnesota finishes the 1st up 24-18

Minnesota keeps Seattle at arm's distance, thanks to clutch buzzer beater by Harding
46-35 Lynx at the half.

Well now...a spirited 3rd quarter effort by the Storm, they lead 68-66 after three.

Game over and Operation "Help the Monarchs Clinch This" is complete - Seattle wins 96-88.

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Saturday, September 6th

1. Seattle (21-10)
2. San Antonio (20-10)
3. Los Angeles (19-13)
4. Sacramento (16-14)
5. Houston (14-16)
5. Minnesota (14-16)
5. Phoenix (14-16)

Los Angeles clinches the third western conference berth. I had previously noted that the Sparks had clinched no worse than third. That's not mathematically correct. They need 1 more win or one more loss by the Monarchs to do that.

So the final berth is the Monarchs - if they want it.... Their magic number as to Phoenix, Houston and Minnesota is now 3 (or a magical 3 as to Phoenix and Minnesota, magical=2 if they beat Minnesota tomorrow and Phoenix loses a game). Any combination of Monarchs wins and Houston/Minnesota/Phoenix losses totalling 3 clinches the berth.

As for the other seeds - presuming the it stays San Antonio, Los Angeles and Seattle... San Antonio holds the tie break with Seattle 2-1, which seemingly puts them in the drivers seat. They have NY and CT to deal with before they face the Monarchs at the end of the regular season. While Seattle will host Atlanta and then travel to LA for their final game next Sunday. Sooooooo, lots still on the line. And the Sparks will also host the Dream next week.

Sparks and Silverstars split their head-to-head
Sparks and Storm spilt their first two meetings

Conference Record
SA 9-10
LA 11-8
Sea 13-5

As we've discussed....Monarchs absolutely, positively,without question MUST win both home games in order to maintain control of their destiny and make that road trip not matter except to um, freaking figure out how to win more than 1 damn game on the road against a conference opponent...cough. Two wins knocks everybody chasing them out. And since their next two are at home...it would seem a perfect opportunity to make that happen. If um..I haven't stressed that point enough this weekend.

As we've also discussed...GO MERC TOMORROW ONLY!!!!

 

[Purple Reign]

1. Seattle (21-10)
2. San Antonio (20-10)
3. Los Angeles (19-13)
4. Sacramento (16-14)
5. Houston (14-16)
5. Minnesota (14-16)
5. Phoenix (14-16)

So the final berth is the Monarchs - if they want it....

I do believe they want it!! And I predict right here that the fans are going to will two wins in our final two home REGULAR season games!!! There is no way they are going to allow Yolanda Griffith and the Seattle Storm come into Arco and spoil this. No way in hell. I am not looking past Minny, but in my opinion this is going to come down to Tuesday night.

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

It does sorta feel like the "win or go home" nature of the playoffs right about now dunnit? It should be off the chain the next two games.


Bring the ARCO Thunder...

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

Sunday Scoreboard Watching....

Wellllllll....looks like San Antonio will hold serve with Seattle atop the west and holding on to the top record in the league. They beat Connecticut 85-73 to remain undefeated against the east.

Next up tonight, all four teams battling for the fourth spot will tip at 6pm.

Game on...

 

[6th]

Nice win by the Monarchs tonight. The magic # now officially stands at... 1.

 

[Purple Reign]

Sunday, September 7

1. Seattle (21-10)
2. San Antonio (21-10)
3. Los Angeles (19-13)
4. Sacramento (17-14)
5. Phoenix (15-16)

One down, ONE MORE TO GO!!!!

We are 0-3 versus Seattle. And the last time they were in Arco, they flat out embarrassed us. Does anybody remember that game?

Seattle 79, Monarchs 64 (and it wasn't that close). The Monarchs were 8-11, on a three game losing streak, 3-7 in their last ten and sitting in dead last place in the West. That was the night I remember sitting in the stands saying there is no way in the world, this team is going to play in the postseason.

Well look at where this season has gone, and Sacramento has an opportunity to redeem themselves against a team that has just smashed them in the mouth all season. LET'S GET IT DONE!!!! Let Seattle know that you will not be a first round push over.

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

LET'S GET IT DONE!!!! Let Seattle know that you will not be a first round push over.

WORD!


Another Night of Thunder.....

 

[Monty'sBiggestFan]

And then it was......

Congratulations to the Sacramento Monarchs and their fans everywhere...job well done...now get ready for the real work to come

I have some business to tend to otherwise I would do the math further but in number crunching I did earlier this evening....I believe that the Seattle loss perhaps clinched San Antonio's #1 seed and left the 2nd and 3rd seeds up in the air and perhaps will be decided in Los Angeles as the Storm and Sparks tangle at the end of the season. But I dunno...