Following Potential *2024* Draftees
- Thread starter Ozymandias
- Start date
I guess the best answer I could give to this is that I don't personally see lateral agility being a problem for him in his primary role as a post defender. He's got as much jump-out-of-the-gym athleticism as anyone in this draft and like a lot of other prospects from Africa, he grew up playing soccer not basketball and looks very comfortable moving around the court. If he gets switched onto an NBA PG we're probably in trouble but we just saw the DPOY get embarrassed by Luka on a game-winning step back. Let's keep this in perspective... like Rudy Gobert his defensive value is not going to be found out on the perimeter.
However, any time you have a chance to draft a guy who could be a high volume shot-blocker and 3pt shooter I think you have to kick the tires and see if they're for real. With Chomche the raw talent and athleticism are impressive but because of his age and late adoption of basketball he's got further to go than most to be ready for NBA competition. I believe he's the youngest player in the draft this year. In the immediate short-term he's going to be an interior defensive specialist who can also shoot from range and generally makes smart decisions with the basketball. Everything else is a work in progress.
However, any time you have a chance to draft a guy who could be a high volume shot-blocker and 3pt shooter I think you have to kick the tires and see if they're for real. With Chomche the raw talent and athleticism are impressive but because of his age and late adoption of basketball he's got further to go than most to be ready for NBA competition. I believe he's the youngest player in the draft this year. In the immediate short-term he's going to be an interior defensive specialist who can also shoot from range and generally makes smart decisions with the basketball. Everything else is a work in progress.
I can't say so far if they will end up in my final top 20 or not, but I'll have my thoughts on both of those guys (and another 18 or so players who are in play for the first round) in part 2. I find it more difficult and time-consuming to evaluate college big guys since most of the time their coaches just want them to set screens, catch lobs, and dunk the ball. Unfortunately there's not much NBA-relevant projection to be gleaned from watching a player dunk on guys who are a foot shorter than them. That's the only reason I put off evaluating both of those guys in part 1.
I understand your question, I just don't know the answer to that particular question...
Sometimes he looks capable of defending on the perimeter and sometimes he looks like a fish out of water. What would you expect from someone who's only been playing basketball for 5 years and is now in a situation where he's competing with some of the best prospects in the world? He moves as well as any 7 footer does but it's not reasonable to expect him to have the same lateral quickness as a wing. I think he has all of the physical tools needed to succeed defensively in the NBA with continued development and it is remarkable how far he's come in only 5 years but he is, at present, a project. I give him credit for his accelerated learning curve and natural feel for the game. That's ultimately why I chose to rank him just above the third tier guys.
Sometimes he looks capable of defending on the perimeter and sometimes he looks like a fish out of water. What would you expect from someone who's only been playing basketball for 5 years and is now in a situation where he's competing with some of the best prospects in the world? He moves as well as any 7 footer does but it's not reasonable to expect him to have the same lateral quickness as a wing. I think he has all of the physical tools needed to succeed defensively in the NBA with continued development and it is remarkable how far he's come in only 5 years but he is, at present, a project. I give him credit for his accelerated learning curve and natural feel for the game. That's ultimately why I chose to rank him just above the third tier guys.
You have to keep in mind that quickness without reaction is basically meaningless. It’s likely why Knecht has the fastest lane agility time but the tape indicates he’s not good laterally. Being able to react quickly to the offensive player is arguably more important than the quickness time of someone who knows exactly the directions he will be moving.
From the tape, it sounds like @hrdboild is not overly worried about his ability to stay in front of defenders on the perimeter but given his size, length, jumping ability, timing, instincts, reaction time, etc., staying in front is not the end all be all. Just look at someone like Wemby. He’s not quick enough to stay in front of 1s and 2s but his length allows him to be a deterrent on their hip or even behind them.
From what I have seen (and it’s been limited), I think Chomche will be just fine defending the perimeter and switching onto smaller players.
From the tape, it sounds like @hrdboild is not overly worried about his ability to stay in front of defenders on the perimeter but given his size, length, jumping ability, timing, instincts, reaction time, etc., staying in front is not the end all be all. Just look at someone like Wemby. He’s not quick enough to stay in front of 1s and 2s but his length allows him to be a deterrent on their hip or even behind them.
From what I have seen (and it’s been limited), I think Chomche will be just fine defending the perimeter and switching onto smaller players.
They also traded for Marcus Smart and gave Bane a max extension last summer, signed Vince Williams to a full time contract after he looked like a really good three and D player for them, and still have Kennard on their team. They’re probably going to have to move someone but I’m guessing they’re just thinking of going BPA
I like Carter a lot and was shocked to find him projected as a late first rounder a month ago. Seeing him rise up draft boards is not a surprise as I think he should be in the top 10 range. There's just no real downside with him. It's starting to look like he won't be available at #13 but trading up a few spots isn't usually that expensive and probably less so this year.
As an alternative though, why not Isaiah Collier? Let me try to make the case...
Devin Carter is a 22 year old Junior who has developed into a fantastic all-around player but in his first two years in college he was a sub 30% 3pt shooter who provided good defensive value but wasn't really a draftable prospect until he figured out the offense. To his credit, he's done exactly that. While he seems to be among the names rising the most in pre-draft talk, Collier is moving in the opposite direction and it's easy to see why. He measured out as significantly smaller than expected which is never good for draft stock. He began the season with a top 5 draft projection but the USC team he led had such a disaster of a season that Coach Enfield has now been fired and pretty much every player of note is jumping ship into the transfer portal.
But let's set the disappointment of expectation to the side and just look at the player. His shooting splits (.490 / .338 / .673) are sub par for a 5-star guard prospect, but compare them to Devin Carter in his Freshman season (.420 / .267 / .688) and it's not unreasonable to project a similar growth curve. As I've said before, all things being equal I'd prefer to go with the more NBA ready talent so that we're not paying (in both cap space and a valuable roster slot) to develop a player who came into the league too early. But in the case where one player is rising out of our draft range and the other is sliding, the question of projecting future development becomes more interesting.
Carter's calling cards are his length, athleticism, and mentality. He looks like a player who maximizes his physical tools on both ends and will find ways to contribute wherever you put him in your rotation. Collier as a ball-dominant lead guard is a little more context-dependent but I have him ranked similarly in terms of potential because I think his two standout skills -- the ability to use his strength and ball-handling to get into the paint in the halfcourt and get himself to the free throw line (5.8 times per game this year) and to create high-percentage shot opportunities with his passing ability / court vision -- are both premium skills in the NBA. The 3pt shot needs to improve and his defensive mindset is more of a question mark right now, but a 19 year old who combines superior strength, speed, ball-handling, balance and body control, and court vision is also a guy who I think you can plug into your rotation right now as an offensive spark and he will provide good value even if he never develops into a #1 option.
He's not my top option and there will likely be better fits with more defensive potential available at our draft slot (and even the late first round) but when we're already talking about investing tons of cap space and/or trade assets to acquire complimentary scorers like Kyle Kuzma, Jerami Grant, or Zach LaVine -- why not make the comparatively small investment of the #13 pick to get a guy like Collier who projects as a difference maker on offense right away with potential to grow into more in the future? Then use those trade assets to continue improving the defense instead. This isn't my Plan A for the draft, but no one is really talking about Collier other than to point out his flaws and I think there's a lot of value there, hiding in plain sight.
As an alternative though, why not Isaiah Collier? Let me try to make the case...
Devin Carter is a 22 year old Junior who has developed into a fantastic all-around player but in his first two years in college he was a sub 30% 3pt shooter who provided good defensive value but wasn't really a draftable prospect until he figured out the offense. To his credit, he's done exactly that. While he seems to be among the names rising the most in pre-draft talk, Collier is moving in the opposite direction and it's easy to see why. He measured out as significantly smaller than expected which is never good for draft stock. He began the season with a top 5 draft projection but the USC team he led had such a disaster of a season that Coach Enfield has now been fired and pretty much every player of note is jumping ship into the transfer portal.
But let's set the disappointment of expectation to the side and just look at the player. His shooting splits (.490 / .338 / .673) are sub par for a 5-star guard prospect, but compare them to Devin Carter in his Freshman season (.420 / .267 / .688) and it's not unreasonable to project a similar growth curve. As I've said before, all things being equal I'd prefer to go with the more NBA ready talent so that we're not paying (in both cap space and a valuable roster slot) to develop a player who came into the league too early. But in the case where one player is rising out of our draft range and the other is sliding, the question of projecting future development becomes more interesting.
Carter's calling cards are his length, athleticism, and mentality. He looks like a player who maximizes his physical tools on both ends and will find ways to contribute wherever you put him in your rotation. Collier as a ball-dominant lead guard is a little more context-dependent but I have him ranked similarly in terms of potential because I think his two standout skills -- the ability to use his strength and ball-handling to get into the paint in the halfcourt and get himself to the free throw line (5.8 times per game this year) and to create high-percentage shot opportunities with his passing ability / court vision -- are both premium skills in the NBA. The 3pt shot needs to improve and his defensive mindset is more of a question mark right now, but a 19 year old who combines superior strength, speed, ball-handling, balance and body control, and court vision is also a guy who I think you can plug into your rotation right now as an offensive spark and he will provide good value even if he never develops into a #1 option.
He's not my top option and there will likely be better fits with more defensive potential available at our draft slot (and even the late first round) but when we're already talking about investing tons of cap space and/or trade assets to acquire complimentary scorers like Kyle Kuzma, Jerami Grant, or Zach LaVine -- why not make the comparatively small investment of the #13 pick to get a guy like Collier who projects as a difference maker on offense right away with potential to grow into more in the future? Then use those trade assets to continue improving the defense instead. This isn't my Plan A for the draft, but no one is really talking about Collier other than to point out his flaws and I think there's a lot of value there, hiding in plain sight.
You make a good case for Collier. At 6’4 he could play either guard spot and I get that he played for a mess of a team. Also the youth aspect and already serious strong frame, makes sense he’s drawn comparisons to Eric Bledsoe.
I sure look forward to draft night and see how this all plays out. Monte appears to want to make a big move so anything could happen with this pick.
I sure look forward to draft night and see how this all plays out. Monte appears to want to make a big move so anything could happen with this pick.
Collier's court vision is actually excellent. His ability to get to the rim is kinda Baby Tyreke (but obviously he doesn't have those measurements.) By the end of the season, jump shooting aside, I think he was looking every bit a lotto-level prospect. He's a strange fit for us (as is Carter) since guard seems pretty locked down, especially if we manage to bring Monk back - but there's a non-zero chance that he's BPA in Monte's eyes at 13.
This is a weird draft, I don't really have any idea what's going to happen. There is only a small handful of players I'm 100% confident are gone before #13 (in fact, that group might be Sarr, Clingan, Sheppard), then a group of about a dozen guys of whom at least 3 and maybe 5 or so will have to be there at #13, then a group of maybe another dozen guys who are probably a tier down for me but hard to separate. There's a decent chance that there are about 15 guys still on the board when we pick that I won't be mad about. Wide open.
This is a weird draft, I don't really have any idea what's going to happen. There is only a small handful of players I'm 100% confident are gone before #13 (in fact, that group might be Sarr, Clingan, Sheppard), then a group of about a dozen guys of whom at least 3 and maybe 5 or so will have to be there at #13, then a group of maybe another dozen guys who are probably a tier down for me but hard to separate. There's a decent chance that there are about 15 guys still on the board when we pick that I won't be mad about. Wide open.
