Following Potential *2024* Draftees

[sactowndog]

Passing on Carter because you like somebody better is absolutely acceptable. Passing on Carter solely because he's not a wing is dumb process.

I don't know yet if he's a top my list. I really like Knecht and DaRon Holmes too. Diving into a few more names in the next week.

we are not ever going to agree. Sadly I think Monte agrees with you and we will soon watch Houston, Memphis and San Antonio pass us as top 6 finishers either next year or the year after.

sadly I think our future is another year in the lottery (maybe Atlanta gets our pick) and then facing trading Fox or losing him in free agency. And yet I’m still here. :-/

 

[sactowndog]

How were we in one of the best defensive teams in the NBA to close the year then? The only change we made was little shrimpy 6'3 Keon Ellis into the rotation and even shrimpier 6'1 Davion? Surely because they don't have a ton of length, we would have gotten worse right?

Keon Ellis as you know is longer than Huerter. Putting in Keon increased our length.

 

[The_Jamal]

do you think Holmes can play the 4? He did a joint combine working with Sanford and he looked pretty robotic and stiff even though he is skilled. He also added a bunch of weight so it seems he is pretty committed to center.

There's the rub. I like all of his skills, I just don't know if he can translate that to a JJJ/Kelly O/Lauri type big wing role. Might be something worth swinging on as if he DOES develop into that, he's a unicorn as a shot-blocking 4 that can space.

 

[iowamcnabb]

we are not ever going to agree. Sadly I think Monte agrees with you and we will soon watch Houston, Memphis and San Antonio pass us as top 6 finishers either next year or the year after.

sadly I think our future is another year in the lottery (maybe Atlanta gets our pick) and then facing trading Fox or losing him in free agency. And yet I’m still here. :-/

so if Devin Carter in Marcus smart in a year and a half and Chomche is Claxton in 3 years who are you taking?

 

[The_Jamal]

so if Devin Carter in Marcus smart in a year and a half and Chomche is Claxton in 3 years who are you taking?

Doesn't matter. Marcus Smart is 6'3, so he isn't helping our team.

Or something

 

[The_Jamal]

so if Devin Carter in Marcus smart in a year and a half and Chomche is Claxton in 3 years who are you taking?

Haven't dug deep into Chomche yet, but very much seems like a "2 years away from being 2 years away" sort of player. Intriguing physical tools and athleticism for sure.

But almost every mock has him as a 2nd round pick. Seems unwise to take him at 13.

 

[sactowndog]

so if Devin Carter in Marcus smart in a year and a half and Chomche is Claxton in 3 years who are you taking?

if I knew those outcomes someone with length that isn’t Chomche.

Btw
Devin Carter 8’2” Reach 6’8.75 wingspan
Marcus Smart 8’3” Reach 6’9.5 wingspan

by the way if Carter replaces Ellis we just got smaller

Carter Standing reach 8’2”
Ellis Standing reach 8’6”
Fox Standing Reach 8’4”

one reason our defense got better is we had length finally at one wing spot. But yeah sure let’s throw that away. Or do you think Carter will replace Fox in the starting line-up in which case we still get smaller.

also Boston played Smart at point because they had Brown at the 2.
8’6.5. 6’ 11.5

Are you advocating Carter replaces Fox?

 

[sactowndog]

Haven't dug deep into Chomche yet, but very much seems like a "2 years away from being 2 years away" sort of player. Intriguing physical tools and athleticism for sure.

But almost every mock has him as a 2nd round pick. Seems unwise to take him at 13.

every mock had Coulibaly as a 2nd round pick last year at this time

 

[twslam07]

Sure and if you give up 4” in length at every position you are going to spend a lot of time in the lottery. Something with which we are very familiar.

Is anybody advocating for that?

Just because folks on this board prefer to draft Carter (who happens to be smaller) does not mean they want the end product of this team to be small at every single position. It could very well mean that those people simply don’t like the options that are bigger/longer in this draft and would prefer to take their chances on someone they think has a good shot at becoming an impact player.

We get it. Having good, long players on this team is important. I think most on this forum agree that we need more length/athleticism at PF. But do you know what’s also important? Not whiffing on your lottery picks.

I have said this before but this pick shouldn’t be viewed through the lens of “we need to draft our PF of the future or bust.” We need to view this pick as an asset meaning the most important thing is finding an impactful player. If he’s an impactful player that also fits the prototype we need at PF, great! We can hold onto him and slot him into our core long term. Otherwise, we can always use him as a trade asset in search of another star player (if Keegan doesn’t progress) or a complementary PF (if Keegan is progressing towards stardom). If we whiff on the pick, there’s no consolation prize that our whiff was a lengthy PF. The asset is sunk at that point.

The Kings don’t have as many 1st round draft picks as some of these other up & coming teams. It makes it that much more important that we don’t waste our assets and that our draft picks continue to retain value. Looking at our draft position, the talent that will likely be available when we draft, and knowing the PF prototype we’d want, it feels like we’re asking a pitcher to step up to the plate and hit a home run. Instead, let’s ask our cleanup hitter to try and hit a double since that “odds to reward” ratio seems like a better return.

 

[sactowndog]

Is anybody advocating for that?

Just because folks on this board prefer to draft Carter (who happens to be smaller) does not mean they want the end product of this team to be small at every single position. It could very well mean that those people simply don’t like the options that are bigger/longer in this draft and would prefer to take their chances on someone they think has a good shot at becoming an impact player.

We get it. Having good, long players on this team is important. I think most on this forum agree that we need more length/athleticism at PF. But do you know what’s also important? Not whiffing on your lottery picks.

I have said this before but this pick shouldn’t be viewed through the lens of “we need to draft our PF of the future or bust.” We need to view this pick as an asset meaning the most important thing is finding an impactful player. If he’s an impactful player that also fits the prototype we need at PF, great! We can hold onto him and slot him into our core long term. Otherwise, we can always use him as a trade asset in search of another star player (if Keegan doesn’t progress) or a complementary PF (if Keegan is progressing towards stardom). If we whiff on the pick, there’s no consolation prize that our whiff was a lengthy PF. The asset is sunk at that point.

The Kings don’t have as many 1st round draft picks as some of these other up & coming teams. It makes it that much more important that we don’t waste our assets and that our draft picks continue to retain value. Looking at our draft position, the talent that will likely be available when we draft, and knowing the PF prototype we’d want, it feels like we’re asking a pitcher to step up to the plate and hit a home run. Instead, let’s ask our cleanup hitter to try and hit a double since that “odds to reward” ratio seems like a better return.

well if you followed my posts I would say we need someone who can guard the 3 and make a 3 point shot. Now I have not given up on Edwards being that guy but I would say we are 4 deep at the 4. My intrigue with Chomche is can he guard the longer 3’s.

 

[The_Jamal]

Is anybody advocating for that?

Just because folks on this board prefer to draft Carter (who happens to be smaller) does not mean they want the end product of this team to be small at every single position. It could very well mean that those people simply don’t like the options that are bigger/longer in this draft and would prefer to take their chances on someone they think has a good shot at becoming an impact player.

We get it. Having good, long players on this team is important. I think most on this forum agree that we need more length/athleticism at PF. But do you know what’s also important? Not whiffing on your lottery picks.

I have said this before but this pick shouldn’t be viewed through the lens of “we need to draft our PF of the future or bust.” We need to view this pick as an asset meaning the most important thing is finding an impactful player. If he’s an impactful player that also fits the prototype we need at PF, great! We can hold onto him and slot him into our core long term. Otherwise, we can always use him as a trade asset in search of another star player (if Keegan doesn’t progress) or a complementary PF (if Keegan is progressing towards stardom). If we whiff on the pick, there’s no consolation prize that our whiff was a lengthy PF. The asset is sunk at that point.

The Kings don’t have as many 1st round draft picks as some of these other up & coming teams. It makes it that much more important that we don’t waste our assets and that our draft picks continue to retain value. Looking at our draft position, the talent that will likely be available when we draft, and knowing the PF prototype we’d want, it feels like we’re asking a pitcher to step up to the plate and hit a home run. Instead, let’s ask our cleanup hitter to try and hit a double since that “odds to reward” ratio seems like a better return.

Much nicer way than I would have said this, but yeah. Gold star post here.

Again, look no further than the Hali draft. Had Fox, Buddy locked up long-term and Bogi RFA rights. We didn't "need" a guard at all, but Hali was considered BPA and he ended up netting us one of the best players in Kings history.

Look how vital the Keegan decision over Ivey has ended up being. We've gotten a productive 2-way starter the past 2 seasons with upside for more while Ivey continues to struggle to find the right role in the league.

And you just can't view your team in the short-term if you want to be successful in the long-term. I pointed this out earlier, but Fox remains our only solidified back-court piece:

Huerter regressed, likely getting shopped
Monk UFA
Keon/Davion popped the last 25 games of the year, but is that sustainable? Davion and Keon also due for an extension after next season.

If Devin Carter is the guy you needed to have, then anyone we currently have at the position just doesn't matter at much. Like you said, the goal is to get a good player first. Then you figure out how to best use him as an asset later.

 

[The_Jamal]

I guess another way to ask:

Say Devin Carter is your #6 prospect on your BPA board. And Chomche is your #22 prospect on your board. Both are available at pick 13. How much do you sacrifice off your BPA to fill your "need"

 

[midtowner]

Watching T-Wolves and Nuggets has me searching for Zach Edey film. Sabonis can play the 4.

 

[iowamcnabb]

if I knew those outcomes someone with length that isn’t Chomche.

Btw
Devin Carter 8’2” Reach 6’8.75 wingspan
Marcus Smart 8’3” Reach 6’9.5 wingspan

by the way if Carter replaces Ellis we just got smaller

Carter Standing reach 8’2”
Ellis Standing reach 8’6”
Fox Standing Reach 8’4”

one reason our defense got better is we had length finally at one wing spot. But yeah sure let’s throw that away. Or do you think Carter will replace Fox in the starting line-up in which case we still get smaller.

also Boston played Smart at point because they had Brown at the 2.
8’6.5. 6’ 11.5

Are you advocating Carter replaces Fox?

no, I think he guard up just like Lu Dort

 

[twslam07]

well if you followed my posts I would say we need someone who can guard the 3 and make a 3 point shot. Now I have not given up on Edwards being that guy but I would say we are 4 deep at the 4. My intrigue with Chomche is can he guard the longer 3’s.

• Keegan is a good/great defender at SF so we have that covered in the starting unit. And he has excellent size/length at SF (something I think we would agree is a good thing).
• Ellis is great at defending SGs and has solid length for that position.
• Fox is a great defender at PG when he dials it up and has solid length too.
• Sabonis is average defensively but has below average length at C
• Barnes is average to below average defensively at PF and has well below average length.
  
  

It’s pretty obvious to me that PG-SG-SF look pretty darn good from a length and defense perspective in our starting unit. It’s PF and C which hurt us. Sabonis isn’t going anywhere due to how he contributes in other ways so that leaves us with trying to replace our current PF (Barnes) with someone who has good size/length and is a good defender. That would give us 4 players around Sabonis who are all good, versatile defenders with length.

But again, the path to acquire that type of PF does not solely rest on who we take at #13. Who we draft at #13 could be included in a trade for such a player down the road. What’s most important is finding and drafting an impact player so that pick maintains/increases its trade value.

 

[sactowndog]

no, I think he guard up just like Lu Dort

yeah kind of like we heard Davion could guard the 3 after Monte drafted him? Not to mention Dort has long players around him.

 

[iowamcnabb]

This was a good listen from the No Ceilings guy. Talks about guys he likes for the kings and the importance of filling out other roster with dribble pass shoot role players around our core of Domas/Fox/Keegan

 

[sactowndog]

• Keegan is a good/great defender at SF so we have that covered in the starting unit. And he has excellent size/length at SF (something I think we would agree is a good thing).
• Ellis is great at defending SGs and has solid length for that position.
• Fox is a great defender at PG when he dials it up and has solid length too.
• Sabonis is average defensively but has below average length at C
• Barnes is average to below average defensively at PF and has well below average length.
  

It’s pretty obvious to me that PG-SG-SF look pretty darn good from a length and defense perspective in our starting unit. It’s PF and C which hurt us. Sabonis isn’t going anywhere due to how he contributes in other ways so that leaves us with trying to replace our current PF (Barnes) with someone who has good size/length and is a good defender. That would give us 4 players around Sabonis who are all good, versatile defenders with length.

But again, the path to acquire that type of PF does not solely rest on who we take at #13. Who we draft at #13 could be included in a trade for such a player down the road. What’s most important is finding and drafting an impact player so that pick maintains/increases its trade value.

where we disagree is Keegan is a good defender at the 3 but can be exploited by quicker 3’s. Plus if we lose Monk we need more energy on offense. I want Keegan on easier to guard 4’s

 

[SacTownKid]

Sure and if you give up 4” in length at every position you are going to spend a lot of time in the lottery. Something with which we are very familiar.

Ideally Carter is a combo guard so he's plenty big enough. His measurements are almost identical to Donovan Mitchell and he's guarded up consistently in his own career.

 

[SacTownKid]

Lu Dort is pretty much the same measurements other than weight and he is guarding BI and Doncic in the playoffs. If he be anything like him that’s a huge win for us

And from what I remember hearing from Brown after so many losses about physicality it likely wasn't about size for him, it was about mindset. If it was about size Brown would've cut the lineups with Fox, Monk, and Davion out way earlier. He wants someone with some meanness to their game.

 

[sactowndog]

This was a good listen from the No Ceilings guy. Talks about guys he likes for the kings and the importance of filling out other roster with dribble pass shoot role players around our core of Domas/Fox/Keegan

It amazes me how often the national media say we need guard depth. My guess is none of these guys watched the Kings. Let’s assume we lose Malik we have

Fox/Davion/Jones
Ellis/Huerter/Duarte

I think Ellis is vastly under rated by most of the national media. Plays good defense and shoots at a high percentage. I don’t see any players better than our first guys and unlikely better than our second guys.

 

[SacTownKid]

Keon Ellis as you know is longer than Huerter. Putting in Keon increased our length.

Dude, 1-2 inches isn't going to change anything. Keon didn't impact anything with his length more than Huerter did, he's just flat out a better defender and quicker.

 

[sactowndog]

Ideally Carter is a combo guard so he's plenty big enough. His measurements are almost identical to Donovan Mitchell and he's guarded up consistently in his own career.

if we draft Carter I have 100 charity bet we are back in the lottery next year and I pay my bets.

 

[sactowndog]

Dude, 1-2 inches isn't going to change anything. Keon didn't impact anything with his length more than Huerter did, he's just flat out a better defender and quicker.

defense is length and quickness and 1-2 inches is the difference between deflecting a pass and the pass getting through. Something Keon did quite often as he is deceptively long

 

[SacTownKid]

if we draft Carter I have 100 charity bet we are back in the lottery next year and I pay my bets.

I would hope that Monte doesn't see a 13th pick in a draft like this as his way back to the the playoffs next year even if it would help. However, it could be the key to a partial reset around Fox and Domas if necessary in the next 2 seasons.

 

[twslam07]

if I knew those outcomes someone with length that isn’t Chomche.

Btw
Devin Carter 8’2” Reach 6’8.75 wingspan
Marcus Smart 8’3” Reach 6’9.5 wingspan

by the way if Carter replaces Ellis we just got smaller

Carter Standing reach 8’2”
Ellis Standing reach 8’6”
Fox Standing Reach 8’4”

one reason our defense got better is we had length finally at one wing spot. But yeah sure let’s throw that away. Or do you think Carter will replace Fox in the starting line-up in which case we still get smaller.

also Boston played Smart at point because they had Brown at the 2.
8’6.5. 6’ 11.5

Are you advocating Carter replaces Fox?

To be fair, Carter did measure with a longer wingspan than Ellis (6’8.75” vs. 6’8.5”) so let’s not pretend like “length” is only defined by standing reach.

It’s also worth noting that Carter’s vertical was much better than what Ellis posted which I think is a complementary data point to consider when looking at standing reach.

For example, Carter measured with a 8’2” standing reach, 35” standing vertical, and 42” max vertical. That means at a standstill, Carter’s hand can get up to 11’1” to contest a shot, and with a running start, Carter’s hand can get up to 11’8” to contest a shot.

Now let’s consider Keon who measured with a 8’6” standing reach, 28” standing vertical, and 35.5” max vertical. That means at a standstill, Keon’s hand can get up to 10’10” to contest a shot, and with a running start, Keon’s hand can get up to 11’5.5”.

As you can see, Carter can technically contest shots at a higher point than Ellis which helps negate the difference in standing reach while at the same time having a longer wingspan which is more important for deflections, playing the passing lanes, stripping players, disrupting ball handlers, etc.

Then you add to the fact that Carter has been an excellent rebounder for his position in college and will likely be a better rebounder than Ellis and it makes his shorter height/standing reach) less of an issue.

Then you add to the fact that Carter weighed in 26 lbs heavier than Ellis and it helps negate that height that much more as it allows him to bang with stronger players without being moved off of his spot.

But despite Carter having 26 lbs on Ellis, his agility/quickness/speed tests were better as well:

Lane Agility
Devin Carter = 10.63 sec
Keon Ellis = 10.87 sec

Shuttle Run
Devin Carter = 2.90 sec
Keon Ellis = 3.02 sec

3/4 Sprint
Devin Carter = 2.87 sec
Keon Ellis = 3.18 sec


So what do we potentially have in Carter? A defender who is quicker, faster, and stronger than Ellis who technically can contest shots at a higher point in the air than Ellis and will very likely be a better rebounder than Ellis. Now does that mean that Carter will be the better player or defender? Of course not. But I wouldn’t be surprised (and that’s coming from a guy that loves Ellis).

 

[twslam07]

where we disagree is Keegan is a good defender at the 3 but can be exploited by quicker 3’s. Plus if we lose Monk we need more energy on offense. I want Keegan on easier to guard 4’s

Yeah Murray is perfectly capable of guarding quicker 3s and it’s actually preferred. Definitely don’t want him defending the bigger 4s in the game and considering how Brown and Jordi used him defensively last year (defending the better PGs, SGs, and SFs in the league), they seem to agree.

 

[SacTownKid]

defense is length and quickness and 1-2 inches is the difference between deflecting a pass and the pass getting through. Something Keon did quite often as he is deceptively long

I mean, I guess it sure can be but it's clearly not the end all be all in every scenario as brought up by @iowamcnabb. Jimmy Butler is another example. Bruce Brown has almost the same measurements as Carter and he's been a target by some fans for a long time and he played PF with the Nets. It's more about being able to physically handle a position than pure length. Now, historically C's are probably different since they are closer to the rim. The Kings defense turned about because while they are small, they finally started to attack bigger players on their dribble rather than helping over with "length", or relying solely on late run outs. Carter would be the best option in the draft to continue that IMO.

 

[SacTownKid]

It amazes me how often the national media say we need guard depth. My guess is none of these guys watched the Kings. Let’s assume we lose Malik we have

Fox/Davion/Jones
Ellis/Huerter/Duarte

I think Ellis is vastly under rated by most of the national media. Plays good defense and shoots at a high percentage. I don’t see any players better than our first guys and unlikely better than our second guys.

Yeah, but the Kings have exactly 1 star guard. That's not enough depth in that sense. Also Monte's been trying to deal Huerter for about a full year now. Duarte, been there, seen that, don't bet on it.

 

[SacTownKid]

To be fair, Carter did measure with a longer wingspan than Ellis (6’8.75” vs. 6’8.5”) so let’s not pretend like “length” is only defined by standing reach.

It’s also worth noting that Carter’s vertical was much better than what Ellis posted which I think is a complementary data point to consider when looking at standing reach.

For example, Carter measured with a 8’2” standing reach, 35” standing vertical, and 42” max vertical. That means at a standstill, Carter’s hand can get up to 11’1” to contest a shot, and with a running start, Carter’s hand can get up to 11’8” to contest a shot.

Now let’s consider Keon who measured with a 8’6” standing reach, 28” standing vertical, and 35.5” max vertical. That means at a standstill, Keon’s hand can get up to 10’10” to contest a shot, and with a running start, Keon’s hand can get up to 11’5.5”.

As you can see, Carter can technically contest shots at a higher point than Ellis which helps negate the difference in standing reach while at the same time having a longer wingspan which is more important for deflections, playing the passing lanes, stripping players, disrupting ball handlers, etc.

Then you add to the fact that Carter has been an excellent rebounder for his position in college and will likely be a better rebounder than Ellis and it makes his shorter height/standing reach) less of an issue.

Then you add to the fact that Carter weighed in 26 lbs heavier than Ellis and it helps negate that height that much more as it allows him to bang with stronger players without being moved off of his spot.

But despite Carter having 26 lbs on Ellis, his agility/quickness/speed tests were better as well:

Lane Agility
Devin Carter = 10.63 sec
Keon Ellis = 10.87 sec

Shuttle Run
Devin Carter = 2.90 sec
Keon Ellis = 3.02 sec

3/4 Sprint
Devin Carter = 2.87 sec
Keon Ellis = 3.18 sec


So what do we potentially have in Carter? A defender who is quicker, faster, and stronger than Ellis who technically can contest shots at a higher point in the air than Ellis and will very likely be a better rebounder than Ellis. Now does that mean that Carter will be the better player or defender? Of course not. But I wouldn’t be surprised (and that’s coming from a guy that loves Ellis).

Good points, and if makes anyone feel better Carter probably has a few inches more in standing reach since he's likely one of the false 42"s, lol.