With Grant, a big part of it for me is the anemic rebounding. He's not an upgrade from Barnes in that department and I think that is really concerning. His defensive metrics have been declining for years and it's a big gamble (IMO) to count on him being better on that end with less offensive responsibility. SOMETIMES, that's a valid point for college players shouldering a huge load on offense, but I generally don't buy it for NBA veterans.
And on the offensive end, his usage has been climbing the last few seasons but his free throw rate has generally declined. In short, I think he's a higher paid, very slightly better version of Harrison Barnes and that just doesn't move the needle. He doesn't help this team take a leap in any real way.
One definite positive for Grant is that he's a significantly better shooter from the right side of the floor and the Kings run a LOT of their action with Sabonis & Fox from the left side.
As for Isaac, Orlando fans may not be the best judge of his value. I thought he might have too high a price tag too, but then I realized he's an UFA after next season and the Magic will need to decide how highly they want to pay a 6th man with his injury history given that they'll have to pay Franz and then Paulo in the next two offseasons. I think if they could add some outside shooting, and punt on whether to re-sign Isaac given his injury history, that might appeal to them. Of course, if Isaac wants to stay with the Magic and would give them a hometown discount because they supported him through his struggle to get back on the court, then it may be a moot point.
I think the reason I can overlook the rebounding is that we were just fine as a team rebounding with someone like Barnes starting at PF. Swapping Barnes for Grant doesn't really hurt us in that category, and that's a category that many of us seem to think is a lower priority compared to adding length, athleticism, scoring/creation, and defense (all things Grant helps us with).
Yeah I wouldn't say it's a "big gamble" to hope that Grant's defensive impact improves with a smaller role, less responsibility on the offensive end. And I've posted this before in other threads, but it's also his defensive potential/ceiling that is attractive even if that effort isn't always there quarter after quarter, game after game. Would you rather have someone who plays average defense throughout the year but plays great defense in crunch time, 4th quarters, the playoffs, etc. or would you rather have someone who plays above-average defense all the time? Everything else equal, I'm somewhat inclined to opt for the player who can elevate his defense to another level when the time demands it (similarly to how Fox dials it up and picks his spots) as I think it ultimately raises the ceiling of our team when trying to make a deep playoff run. We know Grant is capable of playing great defense. So yes, the gamble is hoping he puts in that effort to play at a level he is capable of playing at (or at least puts in the effort in more crucial moments like Fox).
I think the other thing to keep in mind is that we were playing great defense with Barnes as our starting PF towards the end of the year. I have a hard time seeing how replacing Barnes with someone like Grant doesn't improve that defensive unit (or at the very least, keep it consistent).
As for his free throw rate, it has been between .367-.375 for the past 4 seasons. I don't really see it decreasing as you suggest but maybe we're looking at difference numbers?
In general, Grant gives us a lot of improvements over Barnes (age, length, athleticism, defense, rim protection, scoring) and is on par with Barnes on other areas (rebounding, shooting, passing, ballhandling). I don't really see an attribute that I'd give a clear nod to Barnes on which is a good thing if your goal is to ultimately upgrade from Barnes.
Coming back to Isaac...on a general NBA forum, I proposed a trade of...
Jonathan Isaac
#18
for
Kevin Huerter
#13
2025 POR 2nd
...so far only 10% of the vote thinks it's a fair trade and 0% of the vote thinks that the Magic win the trade by a little, by a lot, etc. The rest of the votes (90%) think the Kings win the trade. Now if I were to remove #13, the 2025 POR 2nd, and #18 from the equation, and propose a simple Huerter for Isaac deal as you mentioned, you can imagine how much more lopsided that vote may be. Obviously, this is NBA fans voting (not just ORL fans) so take it with a grain of salt but you can get a sense for how much value he still holds despite these fans understanding that he is an expiring next year.