The 2024 Playoff Chase Thread
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
Kings (44-33)
@Brooklyn
@Oklahoma City
New Orleans
Phoenix
Portland
Lakers (44-33)
Cleveland
Minnesota
Golden State
@Memphis
@New Orleans
How many games do you guys think the kings must win to fend off the lakers for the 8th spot? The Kings have the tie breaker so I think 3 wins will do. With Kings winning 3 more games the Lakers must go 4-1 to surpass the kings for the 8th spot.
@Brooklyn
@Oklahoma City
New Orleans
Phoenix
Portland
Lakers (44-33)
Cleveland
Minnesota
Golden State
@Memphis
@New Orleans
How many games do you guys think the kings must win to fend off the lakers for the 8th spot? The Kings have the tie breaker so I think 3 wins will do. With Kings winning 3 more games the Lakers must go 4-1 to surpass the kings for the 8th spot.
That's why it's so frustrating. Every time I look at L10G, they're usually at 6-4, occasionally 7-3. 13-10 since the ASB which isn't bad and about in line with their W/L total as a high 40s win team. For a team that's supposedly plagued by inconsistency, it doesn't look that way.
But it's just that literally everyone else decides it's time to start winning at an 80% clip, that's great, that's wonderful.
But it's just that literally everyone else decides it's time to start winning at an 80% clip, that's great, that's wonderful.
Yea it's reasonable, but I can't confidentally say the kings will go 3-2
@Brooklyn (Kings have trouble with bad teams)
@Thunder (Kings match up well with the Thunder and Shay might be out so there could be a chance)
New Orleans (Close to an automatic loss, although if Ingram is out there could maybeee be a chance?)
Suns (Back to back 3rd game in 4 days, most likely a loss)
Blazers (Kings have trouble with bad teams)
It will be a cause for concern if the Kings lose 1 of 2 vs Brooklyn/Blazers or losing to the Thunder. The Kings best chance at securing the 8th is to beat Brooklyn, Blazers, and Thunder. Bold prediction, but if the Kings lose 1 of their next 2 against either Brooklyn or Thunder they will fall to 9th.
@Brooklyn (Kings have trouble with bad teams)
@Thunder (Kings match up well with the Thunder and Shay might be out so there could be a chance)
New Orleans (Close to an automatic loss, although if Ingram is out there could maybeee be a chance?)
Suns (Back to back 3rd game in 4 days, most likely a loss)
Blazers (Kings have trouble with bad teams)
It will be a cause for concern if the Kings lose 1 of 2 vs Brooklyn/Blazers or losing to the Thunder. The Kings best chance at securing the 8th is to beat Brooklyn, Blazers, and Thunder. Bold prediction, but if the Kings lose 1 of their next 2 against either Brooklyn or Thunder they will fall to 9th.
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Cleveland has a bad recent record, in the East all teams are doing Kings things lately losing "easy" matches (Bucks, Cavs, Magic).
Minnesota probably the hardest match but look at how they are playing now, their offense is non existent somehow.
Warriors will probably go for nothing at that point and could even rest some players.
@Memphis has the worst home record, in theory the easiest match of all.
They should be favorites to win all of those matches they will have a double digit positive free throw differential, if they continue to play like they do after the All Star Game excluding the matches against the Kings, I am afraid they will win them all and get the home advantage in the play ins from the Kings or the Pels.
Minnesota probably the hardest match but look at how they are playing now, their offense is non existent somehow.
Warriors will probably go for nothing at that point and could even rest some players.
@Memphis has the worst home record, in theory the easiest match of all.
They should be favorites to win all of those matches they will have a double digit positive free throw differential, if they continue to play like they do after the All Star Game excluding the matches against the Kings, I am afraid they will win them all and get the home advantage in the play ins from the Kings or the Pels.
Yea they will probably more than likely beat the Cavs. They've been struggling mightedly.
I have the Lakers losing to the Wolves since it's a back to back for the Lakers. The wolves have been playing surprisingly well considering they've been missing KAT. They are also are 2-1 vs the lakers so they are more than capable in this match up.
By the time the Lakers play the Warriors there's still a chance the Warriors could catch the Lakers, but that is assuming the Warriors beat the jazz and the Lakers beat the Cavs, but lose to the Wolves. Warriors will be 43-35 and the Lakers will be 45-34 heading into a match up against one another. Could also be a potential tie breaker game. It's still too close, so I don't see the warriors resting here.
Yea they beat memphis
so basically 2 wins and 2 toss up games.
I have the Lakers losing to the Wolves since it's a back to back for the Lakers. The wolves have been playing surprisingly well considering they've been missing KAT. They are also are 2-1 vs the lakers so they are more than capable in this match up.
By the time the Lakers play the Warriors there's still a chance the Warriors could catch the Lakers, but that is assuming the Warriors beat the jazz and the Lakers beat the Cavs, but lose to the Wolves. Warriors will be 43-35 and the Lakers will be 45-34 heading into a match up against one another. Could also be a potential tie breaker game. It's still too close, so I don't see the warriors resting here.
Yea they beat memphis
so basically 2 wins and 2 toss up games.
Kings are now relgated to play-ins No way the team wins out all their remaining games Getting the Pelicans in the Play-ins would be the worst outcome., though maybe better than 2 single eliminatoin games. Pelicans sliding back behind the Kings, and the Kings getting the Lakers at home would probably be the best outcome of those left
There is still an outside chance at getting the 6th spot since the Pelicans have dropped. Below are the remaining schedules
Suns (0 games back of 6th seed)
NOP
LAC
@LAC
@SAC
@MIN
Pelicans (1 game back of 6th seed)
@PHX
@POR
@SAC
@GSW
LAL
Kings (2 games back of 6th seed)
@BKN
@OKC
NOP
PHX
POR
As for the Kings tiebreakers against the Suns, they are 2-2 against them this year with 1 more game to go. They probably need to win that game to have any chance at getting the 6th seed simply because it adds a L for the Suns but it also gives us the tiebreaker meaning we just have to have the same record as them.
As for the Kings tiebreakers against the Pelicans, the Kings are 0-4 so we’d need to beat them outright on record (which would be hard to do without beating them during our upcoming game).
However, if we end up in a 3 way tie with both the Suns and Pelicans, it would come down to the best winning percentage against all teams tied. Even if we beat both the Suns and Pelicans in our upcoming games, we’ll have a worse % then at least one of them meaning we’d be a play in team (that 0-4 against the Pelicans is killer).
It mainly comes down to the Kings beating both PHX and NOP (and they are both at home). The ability to add a L to both teams while securing the tiebreaker against the Suns is huge in the race to the 6th. Then we have to take care of business against BKN and POR. And maybe we get lucky and face OKC without SGA and Jalen Williams.
I wouldn’t say it’s likely we get the 6th seed but it’s not quite over yet.
Suns (0 games back of 6th seed)
NOP
LAC
@LAC
@SAC
@MIN
Pelicans (1 game back of 6th seed)
@PHX
@POR
@SAC
@GSW
LAL
Kings (2 games back of 6th seed)
@BKN
@OKC
NOP
PHX
POR
As for the Kings tiebreakers against the Suns, they are 2-2 against them this year with 1 more game to go. They probably need to win that game to have any chance at getting the 6th seed simply because it adds a L for the Suns but it also gives us the tiebreaker meaning we just have to have the same record as them.
As for the Kings tiebreakers against the Pelicans, the Kings are 0-4 so we’d need to beat them outright on record (which would be hard to do without beating them during our upcoming game).
However, if we end up in a 3 way tie with both the Suns and Pelicans, it would come down to the best winning percentage against all teams tied. Even if we beat both the Suns and Pelicans in our upcoming games, we’ll have a worse % then at least one of them meaning we’d be a play in team (that 0-4 against the Pelicans is killer).
- If the Suns or Pelicans end the season 3-2, we’d need to go 5-0
- If the Suns or Pelicans end the season 2-3, we’d need to go 4-1
- If the Suns or Pelicans end the season 1-4, we’d need to go 3-2
It mainly comes down to the Kings beating both PHX and NOP (and they are both at home). The ability to add a L to both teams while securing the tiebreaker against the Suns is huge in the race to the 6th. Then we have to take care of business against BKN and POR. And maybe we get lucky and face OKC without SGA and Jalen Williams.
I wouldn’t say it’s likely we get the 6th seed but it’s not quite over yet.
That is what I thought, also. My wife was incredulous as well. We replayed it over and over and noticed that a Celt actually tipped the ball out of Keegan's hand.
It might be argued that Keegan could have made more of an attempt to secure it rather than try to start a break-out going the other way. At any rate, he was doing as he was trained to do. Unfortunately, that particular situation called for securing the ball like a football and letting time run out. I'm willing to forgive and wager that he will be more situationally aware next time.
It might be argued that Keegan could have made more of an attempt to secure it rather than try to start a break-out going the other way. At any rate, he was doing as he was trained to do. Unfortunately, that particular situation called for securing the ball like a football and letting time run out. I'm willing to forgive and wager that he will be more situationally aware next time.
Teams that have the MVP experience and star talent 3 deep can always waltz their way to where they need to go at the end. Teams like the Clippers and Suns are lazy, entitled, but be darned if once the playoffs start they aren't expecting to turn it on. Super trios suck. I didn't miss them the last few years but it's a new day and a new bar.
If the Kings go 4-1 to close the season, there is a pretty good chance they get to #6, so long as they beat the Suns and Pellies. No clue if they can actually close 4-1 with wins against the Suns and Pellies, but that finish would put us in good shape for #6.
We’d have 48 wins and head to head tiebreakers with the Suns and Lakers. We’d only lose head to head with the Pellies. We’d also have a tiebreaker with the Warriors but not counting them since they can only get to 47 wins.
We would win a three way tiebreak with the Suns and Lakers. We would also (likely) win a 4 way tiebreak with the Lakers, suns, and Pellies. We would, however, lose 3 team tiebreakers involving the Pellies and either the suns or lakers.
So if we get to 48 with wins over the Pellies and Suns, we are the 6 seed so long as the Suns and Lakers don’t get to 49, and the Pellies don’t get to 48. If the Pellies get to 48, we’d need all 4 at exactly 48.
Lakers would have to win out to get to 49, including wins @Pellies, and vs. Warriors and Wolves.
Suns would need to go 3-1 in the non- Kings games to get to 49, including @Clippers, @Wolves, vs. Clippers, vs. Pellies
Pellies would need to go 3-1 in non-Kings games to get to 48, including @Suns, @Warriors, vs lakers
The Pellies getting to 48 is probably the biggest threat, but those are three loseable games, and they’d only need to lose 2.
Bottom line-beat the Suns and Pellies, finish 4-1, and a reasonable shot at #6.
We’d have 48 wins and head to head tiebreakers with the Suns and Lakers. We’d only lose head to head with the Pellies. We’d also have a tiebreaker with the Warriors but not counting them since they can only get to 47 wins.
We would win a three way tiebreak with the Suns and Lakers. We would also (likely) win a 4 way tiebreak with the Lakers, suns, and Pellies. We would, however, lose 3 team tiebreakers involving the Pellies and either the suns or lakers.
So if we get to 48 with wins over the Pellies and Suns, we are the 6 seed so long as the Suns and Lakers don’t get to 49, and the Pellies don’t get to 48. If the Pellies get to 48, we’d need all 4 at exactly 48.
Lakers would have to win out to get to 49, including wins @Pellies, and vs. Warriors and Wolves.
Suns would need to go 3-1 in the non- Kings games to get to 49, including @Clippers, @Wolves, vs. Clippers, vs. Pellies
Pellies would need to go 3-1 in non-Kings games to get to 48, including @Suns, @Warriors, vs lakers
The Pellies getting to 48 is probably the biggest threat, but those are three loseable games, and they’d only need to lose 2.
Bottom line-beat the Suns and Pellies, finish 4-1, and a reasonable shot at #6.