Where do we finish?

[The_Jamal]

It may be a star's league but any team is only as good as the worst or two worst players on the floor. The Kings for years have not fielded 5 competent starters on their roster, let alone an 8 deep rotation.

And it may be a players' league but coaching also matters and I think the drop from an invested Joerger, to a lukewarm Joerger to an idiot like Luke tells you all you need to know. Brown's accountability and actual system should net anywhere from 4-10 wins on its own.

And you see "unexpected leaps" all the time, a lot of people who have been riding the Kings for laughs for years are suddenly talking about us in a positive way because they want to take some kind of credit for being the first to figure it out. This is far from a guarantee, but pretending this year is business as usual just strikes me as pretty strange.

Yeah I think the early returns on the Brown era are very positive. Was a great summer, been a great preseason, really like what he's preaching in interviews. Monte kept all of his guys that he brought in (KZ, Delly, Moneke, kept Metu on the team) which is a great sign they're in lock step with the direction of the roster. Seems like we're very comfortable with KZ being a regular in the rotation, which creates a pretty great 9 man grouping that's versatile in a lot of different ways. And can turn to Lyles/TD in certain situations depending on what's needed for the 10th slot.

Big keys for me will be seeing the defensive intensity transfer over, especially from Fox, improvement as a 3pt shooting team with the new additions and the bench unit being dominant on a nightly basis with 4 guys who are starting-caliber players in this league. Fox/Sabonis/Barnes were already sick on offense last season together and Huerter is going to fit them like a glove as a secondary-creator/spacer. I'm very bullish this team can be a top 10 offense in the league. On defense, still think we're relying way too much on KZ actually being starting caliber after being a fringe NBA rotation player in the league so far, a Davion year 2 leap and Richaun Holmes being healthy. It's going to really have to be a strong system to get this anywhere near 20th in defense.

 

[iowamcnabb]

It's going to really have to be a strong system to get this anywhere near 20th in defense.

These are the teams that we could be better than defensively this year if everything broke right for us and in some cases wrong for other teams:

Pistons- young
Blazers- Blazers
Rockets- young
Thunder- hard tanking
Utah- hard tanking
Orlando- young, injury history
Spurs- hard tanking
Charlotte- they don’t stand out defensively
Atlanta- should be better and have great potential but haven’t realized it yet
Lakers- injuries, old age
Pacers- young, if Turner gets trades still light on good individual defenders
Washington- they could be all over the place

That’s 12 teams that could be within range of us. History isn’t on our side but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if it happened.

 

[kb02]

It may be a star's league but any team is only as good as the worst or two worst players on the floor. The Kings for years have not fielded 5 competent starters on their roster, let alone an 8 deep rotation.

And it may be a players' league but coaching also matters and I think the drop from an invested Joerger, to a lukewarm Joerger to an idiot like Luke tells you all you need to know. Brown's accountability and actual system should net anywhere from 4-10 wins on its own.

And you see "unexpected leaps" all the time, a lot of people who have been riding the Kings for laughs for years are suddenly talking about us in a positive way because they want to take some kind of credit for being the first to figure it out. This is far from a guarantee, but pretending this year is business as usual just strikes me as pretty strange.

The Kings brought in Monk, Huerter, Murray, and KZ. They lost Holiday, Harkless, DDV, and Lamb. I'm not including Buddy, Bagley, etc to make this apples to apples.

The Kings won 30 games last year. The new additions will likely give the Kings a 10% to 20% bump in the W-L. record. That's not strange, that's within normal range. What is an outlier is to expect the new additions plus the coaching to propel this team to make the "straight playoffs"--like 61% of the fans, who voted on the above poll. Based on last year's WC record, to do so, the Kings would need to win 48 games, a 60% jump from the season prior. Thinking the Kings have improved by 60% on a YoY basis is pretty strange to me.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The Kings brought in Monk, Huerter, Murray, and KZ. They lost Holiday, Harkless, DDV, and Lamb. I'm not including Buddy, Bagley, etc to make this apples to apples.

The Kings won 30 games last year. The new additions will likely give the Kings a 10% to 20% bump in the W-L. record. That's not strange, that's within normal range. What is an outlier is to expect the new additions plus the coaching to propel this team to make the "straight playoffs"--like 61% of the fans, who voted on the above poll. Based on last year's WC record, to do so, the Kings would need to win 48 games, a 60% jump from the season prior. Thinking the Kings have improved by 60% on a YoY basis is pretty strange to me.

They also shut down Fox and Sabonis with ~15 games to go, and Fox and Sabonis only played ~12 games together. They barely had any coaching at all last season. So it's probably fair to think a healthy and marginally coached team last year was already a 36 win team.

 

[dude12]

There are so many moving parts in place when it comes to teams improving. The construction of the roster is damn good. Added 3 point shooting improves that area, it also improves in theory the spacing for Fox and Domas, adding a piece like Murray can have a huge effect on the team because so far, he’s looked incredibly well, Mike Brown is light years ahead of Walton and Gentry……light years. The commitment to defense by a master of defense is going to pay the biggest dividends, hence why we see a KZ in the starting rotation.

Whether they can pull off the big jump is to be seen but I think it’s possible with OKC, Jazz, Spurs maybe others in tank mode. Blazers take a step back again, Lakers are relying on a hope and prayer. Memphis took a jump one year, why not the Kings? Seems the pieces are in place, now they just need to perform which is what the actual playing of games will show.

 

[kb02]

They also shut down Fox and Sabonis with ~15 games to go, and Fox and Sabonis only played ~12 games together. They barely had any coaching at all last season. So it's probably fair to think a healthy and marginally coached team last year was already a 36 win team.

So let's get this straight.

The Kings record with Fox and Domas was 4 - 7 over 11 games.
The Kings record over the final 15 games was 6 -9.
They ended the season with 30 wins.

If what you're saying is true, with Fox and Domas playing those last 15 games, they would've had to go 12 -15 over those last 15 games in order to be a 36 win team. That's an 80% clip.

But, but, but you want to normalize it over a full season. Fine, do so. You think Hali + Buddy < Domas? Maybe, but by 6 games? Nah. No way.

 

[sactowndog]

The Kings brought in Monk, Huerter, Murray, and KZ. They lost Holiday, Harkless, DDV, and Lamb. I'm not including Buddy, Bagley, etc to make this apples to apples.

The Kings won 30 games last year. The new additions will likely give the Kings a 10% to 20% bump in the W-L. record. That's not strange, that's within normal range. What is an outlier is to expect the new additions plus the coaching to propel this team to make the "straight playoffs"--like 61% of the fans, who voted on the above poll. Based on last year's WC record, to do so, the Kings would need to win 48 games, a 60% jump from the season prior. Thinking the Kings have improved by 60% on a YoY basis is pretty strange to me.

I don’t buy it fully either but in ability to space the floor……3 point percentage
DDV 36.8%
Holiday 34.2%
Harkless 30.7%
Lamb 30.2%

Huerter 38.9
Monk 39.1
Murray ???
KZ 34.6

The above delta is a pretty significant upgrade in 3 point percentage which will open the floor for Fox to get paint touches. The roster last year was super poorly constructed in regards to fit. This year is 100% better so some improvement is clearly possible.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

So let's get this straight.

The Kings record with Fox and Domas was 4 - 7 over 11 games.
The Kings record over the final 15 games was 6 -9.
They ended the season with 30 wins.

If what you're saying is true, with Fox and Domas playing those last 15 games, they would've had to go 12 -15 over those last 15 games in order to be a 36 win team. That's an 80% clip.

But, but, but you want to normalize it over a full season. Fine, do so. You think Hali + Buddy < Domas? Maybe, but by 6 games? Nah. No way.

These aren't coin flips with fixed probabilities. This is some kind of gambler's fallacy you're on.

a) players checked out on bad coach
b) roster completely imbalanced
c) player injuries
d) shut down team at end of season

There's 6 games easy right there. You could probably have gotten 4-6 just by having Brown and last year's roster to start the season. Walton is that bad, it's plain as day he completely hosed the team.

We were starting a guy who got traded 3 times before being waived by the Rockets this offseason.

 

[kb02]

These aren't coin flips with fixed probabilities. This is some kind of gambler's fallacy you're on.

a) players checked out on bad coach
b) roster completely imbalanced
c) player injuries
d) shut down team at end of season

There's 6 games easy right there. You could probably have gotten 4-6 just by having Brown and last year's roster to start the season. Walton is that bad, it's plain as day he completely hosed the team.

(50/50 probabilities x 50/50 probabilites) > linear assumptions that are essentially a binary addition - subtraction analysis where the outcome is always a net positive.

 

[captain bill]

I don’t buy it fully either but in ability to space the floor……3 point percentage
DDV 36.8%
Holiday 34.2%
Harkless 30.7%
Lamb 30.2%

Huerter 38.9
Monk 39.1
Murray ???
KZ 34.6

The above delta is a pretty significant upgrade in 3 point percentage which will open the floor for Fox to get paint touches. The roster last year was super poorly constructed in regards to fit. This year is 100% better so some improvement is clearly possible.

I think we really need to compare opening day rosters so you have to look at:

Fox / Hali / Buddy / Davion vs
Fox / Huerter / Monk / Davion

the latter is clearly better on fit I think but overall might be a talent downgrade. If you weigh Buddy playing more like ass passing day then Huerter gets the edge but head to head idk how that shakes out.

 

[sactowndog]

I think we really need to compare opening day rosters so you have to look at:

Fox / Hali / Buddy / Davion vs
Fox / Huerter / Monk / Davion

the latter is clearly better on fit I think but overall might be a talent downgrade. If you weigh Buddy playing more like ass passing day then Huerter gets the edge but head to head idk how that shakes out.

Buddy was 36.8% (on 9 shots)
Huerter was 38.9% (on 5.6 shots)

Huerter shot a better percentage on less shots. Some of that was buddy taking more, some was buddy low IQ on what was a good shot, some of it was roster imbalance allowing teams to focus on Buddy.

Hali was clearly much better but Fox/Hali and Davion couldn’t exist so the talent as a whole was a minus.

 

[kb02]

I don’t buy it fully either but in ability to space the floor……3 point percentage
DDV 36.8%
Holiday 34.2%
Harkless 30.7%
Lamb 30.2%

Huerter 38.9
Monk 39.1
Murray ???
KZ 34.6

The above delta is a pretty significant upgrade in 3 point percentage which will open the floor for Fox to get paint touches. The roster last year was super poorly constructed in regards to fit. This year is 100% better so some improvement is clearly possible.

We can quantify this. I ran something addressing this over the summer n Murray needed to make up 3.5 some odd points to push the Kings into the win column given their differential last yr. Don’t have the bandwidth to do an updated version right now.

 

[captain bill]

Buddy was 36.8% (on 9 shots)
Huerter was 38.9% (on 5.6 shots)

Huerter shot a better percentage on less shots. Some of that was buddy taking more, some was buddy low IQ on what was a good shot, some of it was roster imbalance allowing teams to focus on Buddy.

Hali was clearly much better but Fox/Hali and Davion couldn’t exist so the talent as a whole was a minus.

Yeah I’m still not over Buddy shooting 39% on 9+ shots back in the day but by last year he was clearly worse.

Defensively I don’t know. Huerter is getting high praise in that department but Buddy was never our worst defender and Monk is not known for his D. But if we are pairing Huerter / Fox and Mitchell / Monk that is maybe a much better starting and bench pairing than we had last year

Which makes it hard for me to say where that translates in terms of wins, it’s obviously so much better constructed this year but measuring raw talent idk if there’s that big of a difference. With coaching it can improve a lot but we are still measuring improvements from a 30 win team

 

[NiNetNiNe]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...results-lakers-kings/axrcfh68rqot5mzojj024nhn

He talks about the math behind it.

I saw this earlier today, not sure if it has been posted. It says that you can draw conclusions from preseason games. You don't throw out the data just because it's preseason and everyone says it's meaningless. Preseason games do have predictive value, but you need to take into account prior success amongst other variables. The best bet for the over would be the Kings, and the best bet for the under would be the Lakers, according to Medvedovsky.

That's not to say that we are going to be in the playoffs, but using a little common sense can see we are by far better than last season in both roster construction and coaching. Even the results of our 4-0 preseason are different from last year to this. Last year, all our games were somewhat close, and this year we had by the far the greatest point differential(10 points) out of all the teams.

Our starting five in ten games into last season: Fox, Hali, Barnes, Harkless, and Holmes
Our bench that played minutes: Hield, Mitchell, Len, Davis
vs
Our starting five now: Fox, Huerter, Barnes, Okpala/Murray, and Sabonis
Our bench that will probably see minutes: Mitchell, Monk, Holmes, Okpala/Murray, and maybe Davis or Lyles

We have seen a vast improvement across the board.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

That's not to say that we are going to be in the playoffs, but using a little common sense can see we are by far better than last season in both roster construction and coaching. Even the results of our 4-0 preseason are different from last year to this. Last year, all our games were somewhat close, and this year we had by the far the greatest point differential(10 points) out of all the teams.

That's not entirely true, at least three of our games were 15+ point spreads last year. Conversely we averaged close to a 30 point spread this year despite one close game. But what's more interesting is that if you look at last season, the results were typically the result of one big quarter for the Kings while I think that this year we won most quarters and consistently pushed our leads once we got them. We also played two games without Keegan and one without Huerter and with the KZ starting thing we sacrificed offense early which often meant the first ten minutes of game threads was full of "oh noes" only for the game to turn into a complete blowout by half.

 

[macadocious]

We have some summation of the changes, but lets just go through them because it's easily the most significant (positive) changes to this team since getting rid of the Maloofs (and besides keeping the team, those changes were short lived).


McNair (Wilcox to a certain extent):

He finally got the chance to put his stamp on the team if you start at the Haliburton trade. A lot of the end-of-the-season roster was placeholders.

Coaching/FO/Player Development:

StaffJob TitleStart SeasonYears In Role
Mike BrownHead Coach2022-20231
Jordi FernandezAssociate Head Coach2022-20231
Leandro BarbosaAssistant Coach2022-20231
Dutch GaitleyAssistant Coach2022-20231
Luke LoucksAssistant Coach2022-20231
Jay TrianoAssistant Coach2022-20231
Doug ChristieAssistant Coach2021-20222
Lindsey HardingAssistant Coach2020-20213
Sam LogwoodCoaching Associate2022-20231
Monte McNairGeneral Manager2020-20213
Wes WilcoxAssistant General Manager2020-20213
Gregory StrattonDirector of Scouting2019-20204
Colin MontagueDirector of Basketball Analytics2020-20213
Cory KennedyDirector of Performance2022-20231
Gene CrossDirector of Amateur Scouting2018-20195
Paul JohnsonVice President of Player Development2021-20222
Olivia GordonBasketball Operations Intern2022-20231
Garrius AdamsAssistant Video Coordinator2021-20222
Samantha LordBasketball Administration Coordinator2022-20231
Aram PalamoudianBasketball Operations Coordinator2022-20231
Charles AllenHead Video Coordinator2022-20231
Arielle MoyalPlayer Relations Coordinator2014-20159
Devin GreenScout2022-20231
Scott LaydenScout2022-20231
Adam FilippiPro Scout2019-20204
Chris AlpertRegional Scout2018-20195
Acie LawRegional Scout2018-20195
Peja DrobnjakInternational Scout2018-20195
Zarko PaspaljInternational Scout2018-20195
Wes BohnAdvance Scout2019-20204
Michael DarmientoAssistant Sports Performance Coach2018-20195
Thomas DuncanData Analyst2014-20159
Marshall PayneBasketball Analyst2020-20213
Calvin FloydBasketball Analyst2019-20204


This is almost double what we have had. We also have 3 coaches who are capable of being head coaches. Doug Christie, who I love, is way down the bench and that is really saying something.


Supporting cast:

As sactowndog stated earlier, the roster upgrade at the upper middle is not insignificant.

We essentially are replacing players who are currently out of the league, with net positive impact players. Why we are discounting that I do not understand. Also, the players we have added either add shooting, defense, or both.


Chmezi Metu was a major minutes guy last year, and he's the 11th man at best now.

We added the following
-Heurter
-Monk
-Okpala
-Moneke
-Murray

to replace

-Harkless
-Lamb
-Holiday
-Divencenzo
-Thomspon

3 of those guys aren't on a roster anymore.


Intangilbes:

Roster construction

We have spacing and defensive players to fill in the gap where non NBA guys were previously filling.


Coaching Prowess, Competing (buy in):

I don't think this can be understated. This difference even with the exact same roster last year I think gets us 4-5 more wins, easy. Walton was a train wreck, his staff, the inserting of Gentry (who seems like a great dude) was all just a giant mess. There was no accountability, no buy in to a team concept, nothing. It was lip service at best.

Accountability: There will be no taking plays off. It just won't happen. The players will be benched. From Sabonis/Fox on down. Mike Brown has the cache already to do this. Nobody will question it. That right in and of itself will be worth a couple points of game on the net rating.


Players returning:

The two specifically I am thinking of are Holmes and TD. Holmes was non existent after the first 30ish games last year. Injuries and personal issues basically derailed his entire year. TD, had some flashes, but was injured and he's not the type of guy who can be the #1 option, which was asked of him last year. But he sure can be a spark plug and play his ass off for short bursts.

Young Guys:

We have 4, but they are older and I think will offer much needed exuberance and shooting/defense.

Murray: He's a stud. He will be a + rookie, which is rare. Shooting, IQ, defense and selfless play.

Mithchel: He has the best coach he can possibly have for him, he will excel. He is already one of the best, if not the best, on ball defenders in the league. His shoot looks improved in preseason.

Okpala: His defensive is underated. Read that again. It's udnerated. If he can shoot 33-35% from 3 on 2-3 attempts a game, he will be a huge net positive.

Moneke: He probably won't play much, but when a rotational player gets replaced by him and he works 10X harder on the court, it will have an impact on that player.



Now, does this equate to a 48 win team. No, there is still a talent gap in a league that requires it. But this team is better than it's O/U projections. It's most likely a play-in team (major catostrophe aside) and a possible playoff team.

I am predicting 40 wins. Which is 5-6 game over what we should have been last year. I don't think that is crazy at all. That puts us in the 8-10 range.

 

[NiNetNiNe]

That's not entirely true, at least three of our games were 15+ point spreads last year. Conversely we averaged close to a 30 point spread this year despite one close game. But what's more interesting is that if you look at last season, the results were typically the result of one big quarter for the Kings while I think that this year we won most quarters and consistently pushed our leads once we got them. We also played two games without Keegan and one without Huerter and with the KZ starting thing we sacrificed offense early which often meant the first ten minutes of game threads was full of "oh noes" only for the game to turn into a complete blowout by half.

That is true, I guess I should of said closer, relatively speaking. But the overall look of the team, how they play, is undoubtedly different.

 

[gunks]

I feel like we're finally seeing some vision from the FO, something you couldn't say about this franchise in twenty years (sorry but late career Petrie was just a yes man cashing checks). That's why this feels different.

Fox and Domas have some pretty big warts as our core. Neither are known for defense or shooting. So McNair got us Brown, who's going to teach and hold this team accountable on defense, a bunch of players with DAWG in 'em who are going to hold themselves and teammates accountable on defense, and a ton of outside shooting.

It's a shame the West is so brutal this season, but I'm thinking play-in minimum. Either way we'll be in the mix all year and I have a feeling this will be an enjoyable team to watch and root for.

 

[origkds]

We have some summation of the changes, but lets just go through them because it's easily the most significant (positive) changes to this team since getting rid of the Maloofs (and besides keeping the team, those changes were short lived).


McNair (Wilcox to a certain extent):

He finally got the chance to put his stamp on the team if you start at the Haliburton trade. A lot of the end-of-the-season roster was placeholders.

Coaching/FO/Player Development:

StaffJob TitleStart SeasonYears In Role
Mike BrownHead Coach2022-20231
Jordi FernandezAssociate Head Coach2022-20231
Leandro BarbosaAssistant Coach2022-20231
Dutch GaitleyAssistant Coach2022-20231
Luke LoucksAssistant Coach2022-20231
Jay TrianoAssistant Coach2022-20231
Doug ChristieAssistant Coach2021-20222
Lindsey HardingAssistant Coach2020-20213
Sam LogwoodCoaching Associate2022-20231
Monte McNairGeneral Manager2020-20213
Wes WilcoxAssistant General Manager2020-20213
Gregory StrattonDirector of Scouting2019-20204
Colin MontagueDirector of Basketball Analytics2020-20213
Cory KennedyDirector of Performance2022-20231
Gene CrossDirector of Amateur Scouting2018-20195
Paul JohnsonVice President of Player Development2021-20222
Olivia GordonBasketball Operations Intern2022-20231
Garrius AdamsAssistant Video Coordinator2021-20222
Samantha LordBasketball Administration Coordinator2022-20231
Aram PalamoudianBasketball Operations Coordinator2022-20231
Charles AllenHead Video Coordinator2022-20231
Arielle MoyalPlayer Relations Coordinator2014-20159
Devin GreenScout2022-20231
Scott LaydenScout2022-20231
Adam FilippiPro Scout2019-20204
Chris AlpertRegional Scout2018-20195
Acie LawRegional Scout2018-20195
Peja DrobnjakInternational Scout2018-20195
Zarko PaspaljInternational Scout2018-20195
Wes BohnAdvance Scout2019-20204
Michael DarmientoAssistant Sports Performance Coach2018-20195
Thomas DuncanData Analyst2014-20159
Marshall PayneBasketball Analyst2020-20213
Calvin FloydBasketball Analyst2019-20204


This is almost double what we have had. We also have 3 coaches who are capable of being head coaches. Doug Christie, who I love, is way down the bench and that is really saying something.


Supporting cast:

As sactowndog stated earlier, the roster upgrade at the upper middle is not insignificant.

We essentially are replacing players who are currently out of the league, with net positive impact players. Why we are discounting that I do not understand. Also, the players we have added either add shooting, defense, or both.


Chmezi Metu was a major minutes guy last year, and he's the 11th man at best now.

We added the following
-Heurter
-Monk
-Okpala
-Moneke
-Murray

to replace

-Harkless
-Lamb
-Holiday
-Divencenzo
-Thomspon

3 of those guys aren't on a roster anymore.


Intangilbes:

Roster construction

We have spacing and defensive players to fill in the gap where non NBA guys were previously filling.


Coaching Prowess, Competing (buy in):

I don't think this can be understated. This difference even with the exact same roster last year I think gets us 4-5 more wins, easy. Walton was a train wreck, his staff, the inserting of Gentry (who seems like a great dude) was all just a giant mess. There was no accountability, no buy in to a team concept, nothing. It was lip service at best.

Accountability: There will be no taking plays off. It just won't happen. The players will be benched. From Sabonis/Fox on down. Mike Brown has the cache already to do this. Nobody will question it. That right in and of itself will be worth a couple points of game on the net rating.


Players returning:

The two specifically I am thinking of are Holmes and TD. Holmes was non existent after the first 30ish games last year. Injuries and personal issues basically derailed his entire year. TD, had some flashes, but was injured and he's not the type of guy who can be the #1 option, which was asked of him last year. But he sure can be a spark plug and play his ass off for short bursts.

Young Guys:

We have 4, but they are older and I think will offer much needed exuberance and shooting/defense.

Murray: He's a stud. He will be a + rookie, which is rare. Shooting, IQ, defense and selfless play.

Mithchel: He has the best coach he can possibly have for him, he will excel. He is already one of the best, if not the best, on ball defenders in the league. His shoot looks improved in preseason.

Okpala: His defensive is underated. Read that again. It's udnerated. If he can shoot 33-35% from 3 on 2-3 attempts a game, he will be a huge net positive.

Moneke: He probably won't play much, but when a rotational player gets replaced by him and he works 10X harder on the court, it will have an impact on that player.



Now, does this equate to a 48 win team. No, there is still a talent gap in a league that requires it. But this team is better than it's O/U projections. It's most likely a play-in team (major catostrophe aside) and a possible playoff team.

I am predicting 40 wins. Which is 5-6 game over what we should have been last year. I don't think that is crazy at all. That puts us in the 8-10 range.

Wow, great work Mac. Thank you for this detailed summary/analysis. My head has been swimming this year trying to synthesize all of the changes and this really helps.

 

[sactowndog]

We can quantify this. I ran something addressing this over the summer n Murray needed to make up 3.5 some odd points to push the Kings into the win column given their differential last yr. Don’t have the bandwidth to do an updated version right now.

Well just roughly the changes in percentage would appear to be at least 1 or 2 extra 3-point shots made. Between Murray and the improved percentages it doesn’t see wholly unreasonable.

 

[kb02]

We have some summation of the changes, but lets just go through them because it's easily the most significant (positive) changes to this team since getting rid of the Maloofs (and besides keeping the team, those changes were short lived).


McNair (Wilcox to a certain extent):

He finally got the chance to put his stamp on the team if you start at the Haliburton trade. A lot of the end-of-the-season roster was placeholders.

Coaching/FO/Player Development:

StaffJob TitleStart SeasonYears In Role
Mike BrownHead Coach2022-20231
Jordi FernandezAssociate Head Coach2022-20231
Leandro BarbosaAssistant Coach2022-20231
Dutch GaitleyAssistant Coach2022-20231
Luke LoucksAssistant Coach2022-20231
Jay TrianoAssistant Coach2022-20231
Doug ChristieAssistant Coach2021-20222
Lindsey HardingAssistant Coach2020-20213
Sam LogwoodCoaching Associate2022-20231
Monte McNairGeneral Manager2020-20213
Wes WilcoxAssistant General Manager2020-20213
Gregory StrattonDirector of Scouting2019-20204
Colin MontagueDirector of Basketball Analytics2020-20213
Cory KennedyDirector of Performance2022-20231
Gene CrossDirector of Amateur Scouting2018-20195
Paul JohnsonVice President of Player Development2021-20222
Olivia GordonBasketball Operations Intern2022-20231
Garrius AdamsAssistant Video Coordinator2021-20222
Samantha LordBasketball Administration Coordinator2022-20231
Aram PalamoudianBasketball Operations Coordinator2022-20231
Charles AllenHead Video Coordinator2022-20231
Arielle MoyalPlayer Relations Coordinator2014-20159
Devin GreenScout2022-20231
Scott LaydenScout2022-20231
Adam FilippiPro Scout2019-20204
Chris AlpertRegional Scout2018-20195
Acie LawRegional Scout2018-20195
Peja DrobnjakInternational Scout2018-20195
Zarko PaspaljInternational Scout2018-20195
Wes BohnAdvance Scout2019-20204
Michael DarmientoAssistant Sports Performance Coach2018-20195
Thomas DuncanData Analyst2014-20159
Marshall PayneBasketball Analyst2020-20213
Calvin FloydBasketball Analyst2019-20204


This is almost double what we have had. We also have 3 coaches who are capable of being head coaches. Doug Christie, who I love, is way down the bench and that is really saying something.


Supporting cast:

As sactowndog stated earlier, the roster upgrade at the upper middle is not insignificant.

We essentially are replacing players who are currently out of the league, with net positive impact players. Why we are discounting that I do not understand. Also, the players we have added either add shooting, defense, or both.


Chmezi Metu was a major minutes guy last year, and he's the 11th man at best now.

We added the following
-Heurter
-Monk
-Okpala
-Moneke
-Murray

to replace

-Harkless
-Lamb
-Holiday
-Divencenzo
-Thomspon

3 of those guys aren't on a roster anymore.


Intangilbes:

Roster construction

We have spacing and defensive players to fill in the gap where non NBA guys were previously filling.


Coaching Prowess, Competing (buy in):

I don't think this can be understated. This difference even with the exact same roster last year I think gets us 4-5 more wins, easy. Walton was a train wreck, his staff, the inserting of Gentry (who seems like a great dude) was all just a giant mess. There was no accountability, no buy in to a team concept, nothing. It was lip service at best.

Accountability: There will be no taking plays off. It just won't happen. The players will be benched. From Sabonis/Fox on down. Mike Brown has the cache already to do this. Nobody will question it. That right in and of itself will be worth a couple points of game on the net rating.


Players returning:

The two specifically I am thinking of are Holmes and TD. Holmes was non existent after the first 30ish games last year. Injuries and personal issues basically derailed his entire year. TD, had some flashes, but was injured and he's not the type of guy who can be the #1 option, which was asked of him last year. But he sure can be a spark plug and play his ass off for short bursts.

Young Guys:

We have 4, but they are older and I think will offer much needed exuberance and shooting/defense.

Murray: He's a stud. He will be a + rookie, which is rare. Shooting, IQ, defense and selfless play.

Mithchel: He has the best coach he can possibly have for him, he will excel. He is already one of the best, if not the best, on ball defenders in the leags shoot looks improved in preseason.

Okpala: His defensive is underated. Read that again. It's udnerated. If he can shoot 33-35% from 3 on 2-3 attempts a game, he will be a huge net positive.

Moneke: He probably won't play much, but when a rotational player gets replaced by him and he works 10X harder on the court, it will have an impact on that player.



Now, does this equate to a 48 win team. No, there is still a talent gap in a league that requires it. But this team is better than it's O/U projections. It's most likely a play-in team (major catostrophe aside) and a possible playoff team.

I am predicting 40 wins. Which is 5-6 game over what we should have been last year. I don't think that is crazy at all. That puts us in the 8-10 range.

Between the 97-98 and 98-99 seasons, the Kings record jumped 64% YoY. The 98-99 season was strike shortened, so using percentages for apples to apples comparison purposes.

New coach. Roughly Mitch for Cwebb. A push given they were essentially both all star caliber players. Vlade--in his prime, a star (he would be the best player on this current Kings team today). Peja and JWill were rookies.

You think Murray > Peja?
Huerter > Vlade?
Monk > Jwill?
Brown > Adelman?

Or Domas/Fox > Cwebb/Vlade?

 

[kb02]

Well just roughly the changes in percentage would appear to be at least 1 or 2 extra 3-point shots made. Between Murray and the improved percentages it doesn’t see wholly unreasonable.

From the summer:

Points Differential with Domas: -5.53
Estimated Points Gained/Saved with Monk & Huerter: 1.82
Keegan Murray Needs > PPG Gained/Saved 3.71

I posted the calcs then. Don't feel like doing so now. Don't have the bandwidth to update it.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Between the 97-98 and 98-99 seasons, the Kings record jumped 64% YoY. The 98-99 season was strike shortened, so using percentages for apples to apples comparison purposes.

Worth noting they were ~4 games below .500 with 11 games left in the season and went 10-1 down the stretch.

Just because I am sure you'll be trolling us all season.

 

[macadocious]

Between the 97-98 and 98-99 seasons, the Kings record jumped 64% YoY. The 98-99 season was strike shortened, so using percentages for apples to apples comparison purposes.

New coach. Roughly Mitch for Cwebb. A push given they were essentially both all star caliber players. Vlade--in his prime, a star (he would be the best player on this current Kings team today). Peja and JWill were rookies.

You think Murray > Peja?
Huerter > Vlade?
Monk > Jwill?
Brown > Adelman?

Or Domas/Fox > Cwebb/Vlade?

So first off, I am expecting a 25% win % increase this year, not 64, so not apples to apples here, but let me go through your rankings.


You think Murray > Peja? (As a rookie compared to Peja, 100% yes. Peja scored 8ppg on 32% from 3 and only played 21mpg, also I think Murray has a shot at being better than Peja overall)
Huerter > Vlade? (No, that is silly)
Monk > Jwill? (100% yes. Jwill might be my favorite player ever, but his numbers were not great. 31% from three and low efg%. He also payed zero defense. But damn was he fun, and he defintely led the charge on excitment and gelled with webb and vlade great.)
Brown > Adelman? (Defensively, yes, but honeslty, they are similar. Coached in the finals, couple rough stints in the middle of their career, very similar paths)
Or Domas/Fox > Cwebb/Vlade? - No, but Domas is better than Vlade.

So ya, go back and read what I wrote and you'll see my analysis has nothing to do with the late 90s Kings.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

So first off, I am expecting a 25% win % increase this year, not 64, so not apples to apples here, but let me go through your rankings.


You think Murray > Peja? (As a rookie compared to Peja, 100% yes. Peja scored 8ppg on 32% from 3 and only played 21mpg, also I think Murray has a shot at being better than Peja overall)
Huerter > Vlade? (No, that is silly)
Monk > Jwill? (100% yes. Jwill might be my favorite player ever, but his numbers were not great. 31% from three and low efg%. He also payed zero defense. But damn was he fun, and he defintely led the charge on excitment and gelled with webb and vlade great.)
Brown > Adelman? (Defensively, yes, but honeslty, they are similar. Coached in the finals, couple rough stints in the middle of their career, very similar paths)
Or Domas/Fox > Cwebb/Vlade? - No, but Domas is better than Vlade.

So ya, go back and read what I wrote and you'll see my analysis has nothing to do with the late 90s Kings.

yeah why not compare the Domas addition to the Vlade one if you play this game.

We don't have a second major addition quite as big as Webber, but this isn't a two bigs league anymore. It's a 3 point shooting league and we added a bunch of that in a way that should benefit our two big scorers who aren't 3-pt specialists (who also happened to spend a nice chunk of their offseason working with 3 point shooting specialist coaches).

 

[captain bill]

Supporting cast:

As sactowndog stated earlier, the roster upgrade at the upper middle is not insignificant.

We essentially are replacing players who are currently out of the league, with net positive impact players. Why we are discounting that I do not understand. Also, the players we have added either add shooting, defense, or both.


Chmezi Metu was a major minutes guy last year, and he's the 11th man at best now.

We added the following
-Heurter
-Monk
-Okpala
-Moneke
-Murray

to replace

-Harkless
-Lamb
-Holiday
-Divencenzo
-Thomspon

3 of those guys aren't on a roster anymore.

TBF Chima Moneke is a 26 year old making his first NBA appearance and KZ Okpala was an end of the bench guy in Miami, and while I'm very excited to see them and believe in Brown and McNair's assessment of them as upgrades it's hard to pencil them in as improvements just because they are replacing guys who aren't getting major NBA minutes. Just by that metric it's lateral.

Murray being our biggest upgrade is what makes it hard for me to pencil in W's, and a big part of why I see this year as more likely .500 and next year as a year we can possibly make the big jump.

 

[TaxMan]

The Kings brought in Monk, Huerter, Murray, and KZ. They lost Holiday, Harkless, DDV, and Lamb. I'm not including Buddy, Bagley, etc to make this apples to apples.

The Kings won 30 games last year. The new additions will likely give the Kings a 10% to 20% bump in the W-L. record. That's not strange, that's within normal range. What is an outlier is to expect the new additions plus the coaching to propel this team to make the "straight playoffs"--like 61% of the fans, who voted on the above poll. Based on last year's WC record, to do so, the Kings would need to win 48 games, a 60% jump from the season prior. Thinking the Kings have improved by 60% on a YoY basis is pretty strange to me.

I think people are still generally confused by the concept of the play-in. Yes, technically the 7th and 8th seeds have to complete in play-in games; however, I think there is a perception that being labeled a "play-in" team means you are squeaking into the post-season as the 9th or 10th seed and have the odds stacked against you to actually make it into the "play-offs".

With that said, I answered the poll as "Broken hearts via play-in". I can see this team making a huge leap, but just can't imagine making it past the 7th seed. There would need to be significant injuries in the west to multiple teams, for me to believe that. As a Kings fan for over 35 years, until proven otherwise, there is no way I can predict anything other than "broken hearts".

 

[macadocious]

TBF Chima Moneke is a 26 year old making his first NBA appearance and KZ Okpala was an end of the bench guy in Miami, and while I'm very excited to see them and believe in Brown and McNair's assessment of them as upgrades it's hard to pencil them in as improvements just because they are replacing guys who aren't getting major NBA minutes. Just by that metric it's lateral.

Murray being our biggest upgrade is what makes it hard for me to pencil in W's, and a big part of why I see this year as more likely .500 and next year as a year we can possibly make the big jump.

Because I trust my eyes, and 10 minutes of Moneke busting his ass it better than Tristan Thompson doing anything.

 

[LPKingsFan]

So first off, I am expecting a 25% win % increase this year, not 64, so not apples to apples here, but let me go through your rankings.


You think Murray > Peja? (As a rookie compared to Peja, 100% yes. Peja scored 8ppg on 32% from 3 and only played 21mpg, also I think Murray has a shot at being better than Peja overall)
Huerter > Vlade? (No, that is silly)
Monk > Jwill? (100% yes. Jwill might be my favorite player ever, but his numbers were not great. 31% from three and low efg%. He also payed zero defense. But damn was he fun, and he defintely led the charge on excitment and gelled with webb and vlade great.)
Brown > Adelman? (Defensively, yes, but honeslty, they are similar. Coached in the finals, couple rough stints in the middle of their career, very similar paths)
Or Domas/Fox > Cwebb/Vlade? - No, but Domas is better than Vlade.

So ya, go back and read what I wrote and you'll see my analysis has nothing to do with the late 90s Kings.

Right, and putting aside the issue that few of any are claiming the team will make a 98-esque leap, isn’t the analysis not, for example, whether Brown > Adelman, but whether the change from Walton/Gentry to Brown > Eddie Jordan to Adelman?

 

[macadocious]

Right, and putting aside the issue that few of any are claiming the team will make a 98-esque leap, isn’t the analysis not, for example, whether Brown > Adelman, but whether the change from Walton/Gentry to Brown > Eddie Jordan to Adelman?

Why are we comparing any of it? It's asinine. One has nothing to do with the other.

We can compare this team to last year's team. That's it. Anything beyond that is just trying to make some emotional connection to the past.