Where do we finish?

[captain bill]

So....let me get this straight. Your "prediction" is 34-48 wins....but you also think .500 is the most realistic projection. Got it.

42 is smack dab between 34&48 so I don’t know what your issue is

what I’m saying is we have a high upside but a huge number of weaknesses (didn’t improve defense, relying on a rookie for most of our improvement, still have Fox + HB as question marks in terms of consistency, Holmes finding a productive role is still a big question mark)

if you want to put a narrower range I think we’re 40-45 wins

 

[macadocious]

What evidence are you using for didn’t improve defense?

 

[LoungeLizard]

I’m guessing we finish in the 40-42 win range. Good enough for play in.

 

[kingsfan101]

Assuming, of course, a serious injury bug doesn't strike - if they can keep the offense moving and hitting 3's (with this roster we should be able to) and make their living on the defense (and with this coaching staff I don't think you play if you don't), we can probably get into the lower rungs of the PO without needing the play-in.

Without the play-in? That's a tall order. Will require us to finish top 6 in the regular season.

The way I see it, the following are the top-5 teams in the West. Ws at the top, but the order of the next four is unsure given that many have critical pieces coming back from injury

Warriors
Clippers
Suns
Nuggets
Grizzlies

I also put Wolves and Mavs ahead of us. Wolves did reasonably well last season, and made a huge trade for Gobert. Still to be seen how it plays out, but I think it helps them significantly. Mavs lost Brunson, which I think they will feel. However, Luka is still great. This is one team though which I feel can go down significantly if Luka misses significant time.

I think we will be competing for the 8th spot with Pels and Lakers. Pels are getting Zion back, and Lakers still have Bron and Davis. These teams have significant injury history though, and Bron and Davis might not be able to carry teams all by themselves any longer. So, I think we are better than them, but we will have to prove it, particularly given our history. In any case, I doubt we break into the top 6, without some significant injury to some of the teams above us. Hope I am proven wrong.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I think we could potentially win 50 games and lock in a 5/6 seed. But realistically and also fatalistically, I am fearing that we'll actually finish 7 or 8 and somehow get bounced in the play in, which would just be the cruelest of ironies.

I am feeling way more hyped on this team than I did in the 99 strike shortened season. One thing I had almost completely forgotten about that year was we were basically going along at the last Joerger team's pace. But instead of losing the vast majority of the final 10 games, that team actually finished 10-1 over their last 11 games. 4 games over .500 and a 6 seed, but they fell to the Jazz.

So it's not out of the realm of possibility we get there. I feel like this team will win at a high clip at the back end of the season when every bad team has thrown in the towel. And I think a 6 seeded Kings team has a short playoff life in this Western conference.

But how cruel would it be to finish around 44-46 wins, good enough for a 7 seed and comfortably making it in as a top 8 seed in the old format only to drop two games.

I dunno, for some reason it just feels like that would be part of our growing pains and our burden. Hopefully doesn't happen, but that's my prediction for now.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think we could potentially win 50 games and lock in a 5/6 seed. But realistically and also fatalistically, I am fearing that we'll actually finish 7 or 8 and somehow get bounced in the play in, which would just be the cruelest of ironies.

I am feeling way more hyped on this team than I did in the 99 strike shortened season. One thing I had almost completely forgotten about that year was we were basically going along at the last Joerger team's pace. But instead of losing the vast majority of the final 10 games, that team actually finished 10-1 over their last 11 games. 4 games over .500 and a 6 seed, but they fell to the Jazz.

So it's not out of the realm of possibility we get there. And I think a 6 seeded Kings team has a short playoff life in this Western conference.

But how cruel would it be to finish around 44-46 wins, good enough for a 7 seed and comfortably making it in as a top 8 seed in the old format only to drop two games.

I dunno, for some reason it just feels like that would be part of our growing pains and our burden. Hopefully doesn't happen, but that's my prediction for now.

I mean, that honestly wouldn't be that much of a bummer. If we're a 42 win team... that's a 12 win bump from last year. That's insane improvement with a first year head coach and a lot of first year guys on the team. I obviously would love us to get a 7-game series, but I think my realistic goal is secure a 7-8 seed and do our best to beat the play-in.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I mean, that honestly wouldn't be that much of a bummer. If we're a 42 win team... that's a 12 win bump from last year. That's insane improvement with a first year head coach and a lot of first year guys on the team. I obviously would love us to get a 7-game series, but I think my realistic goal is secure a 7-8 seed and do our best to beat the play-in.

The bummer part would be the stupid drought would still be a thing people point to even if we were a better than .500 team who would have qualified under a less expanded format.

I agree - that it would portend good things. But I also hope to do marginally better just because this is a special season for tanking.

I am also predicting that the Pels get Vic or Scoot cuz why not. Lakers looked so bad. I don't see how they turn it around unless they trade AD or Lebron.

 

[PorchSurfin]

My opinion? I think Brown is pretty well solid at the starting 4 with KZ. I think Brown's way of thinking is to pair him with Murray. I think Brown is after Barnes spot with Murray as the replacement. I think Murray will be what Barnes was supposed to be, basically better at all levels than Barnes. If you think about the weak link in the starting 5, it's Barnes vs what Keegan has shown.

The goal posts have shifted on what the Kings should be capable of. Best case scenario is a 5th or 6th seed and a first round upset. Worst case is finishing ahead of the Lakers and Blazers for a 10th thru 14th pick.

Ever the optimist, I'm going 6th in the west because that's what I want to see. Realistically we are fighting for the 8th-9th spot with 2 other veteran teams (Lakers and Portland) and the Pels or Minnesota sitting where we want to be.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I’m always too optimistic so I don’t even want to guess. I do think there are major questions in the West among the “sure things”. The Suns have last seasons collapse, Ayton drama and CPs health and potential decline to worry about. The Board Man has missed a lot of games in his career. Who knows with him. The Mavs probably got worse.

We have a chance and maybe the bigger question, If not now, when?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

My opinion? I think Brown is pretty well solid at the starting 4 with KZ. I think Browns way of thinking is to pair him with Murray. I think Brown is after Barnes spot with Murray as the replacement. I think Murray will be what Barnes was supposed to be, basically better at all levels than Barnes. If you think about the weak link in the starting 5, it's Barnes vs what Keegan has shown.

The goal posts have shifted on what the Kings should be capable of. Best case scenario is a 5th or 6th seed and a first round upset. Worst case is finishing ahead of the Lakers and Blazers for a 10th thru 14th pick.

Ever the optimist, I'm going 6th in the west because that's what I want to see. Realistically we are fighting for the 8th-9th spot with 2 other veteran teams (Lakers and Portland) and the Pels or Minnesota sitting where we want to be.

We'll see how serious Brown is with KZ starting and if it is not an experiment or a way to motivate Murray to just take another leap then I think you may be right about Barnes actually being the one who potentially takes on the 6th man roll 10-20 games in.

 

[iowamcnabb]

You guys gotta know by now that the Kings fall flat on their faces anytime we make a thread like this.

They also fall flat on their faces when we don’t make a thread about it.

 

[PorchSurfin]

Personally I'd be interested in seeing Murray and KZ starting together on the Frontline and bringing Barnes off the bench with the second unit.

I'd actually REALLY be interested in that dynamic.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

42 is smack dab between 34&48 so I don’t know what your issue is

what I’m saying is we have a high upside but a huge number of weaknesses (didn’t improve defense, relying on a rookie for most of our improvement, still have Fox + HB as question marks in terms of consistency, Holmes finding a productive role is still a big question mark)

if you want to put a narrower range I think we’re 40-45 wins

I think this is a fair projection.

Personally I have 36 wins as the floor. If I was a betting person I'd bet the house on the over. I am not.

I have 50 wins as the ceiling. This takes into account the Vic/Scoot tankathon (wait til we see college, and also those two twins doing that weird stream-tv league) and my belief that this team is better than the 2018-2019 team both in roster construction and coaching which I think would have finished .500 if not for Joerger's bitterness at season's end.

My projection is 44 wins. Good enough for 7/8 seed.

 

[The_Jamal]

Sacramento Kings: 34.5 wins
My pick: Under
While this over/under is close to the Kings’ 30 wins from 2021-22, they had the minus-5.9 differential of a 26.6-win squad, making this a steeper hill to climb than some may think. It is reasonable to expect an offensive jump, as they now get a full season of Domantas Sabonis after posting a strong 116.2 offensive rating (80th percentile) when Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox shared the floor last season, far higher than their 109.9 figure for the full season. A push on that end may be enough.
But it would really help to improve defensively, and I am less confident that will happen. New head coach Mike Brown should help set a stronger tone, but Sabonis is typically a defensive liability, and the Kings have very few good defenders in their rotation at the moment. This is a close call with the distinct possibility they go over even with a bottom-five defense, but I am still leaning under.

Edit: Hollinger: 10. Sacramento Kings: 37-45

https://theathletic.com/3685200/2022/10/14/win-totals-over-under-nba-western-conference/

He should have hit this 2 months ago when it was 32.5. Such an easy over .

I think 34.5 is still fine to hit the over too, although less of a slam. The proper line is like 36.5 where I'd start considering the under.

 

[PorchSurfin]

I’m always too optimistic so I don’t even want to guess. I do think there are major questions in the West among the “sure things”. The Suns have last seasons collapse, Ayton drama and CPs health and potential decline to worry about. The Board Man has missed a lot of games in his career. Who knows with him. The Mavs probably got worse.

We have a chance and maybe the bigger question, If not now, when?

There is a lot of drama surrounding the Sun's for sure. I thought CP3 was done when he was in OKC, and yet he just kept on.

He's smarter than his opponent. He can out think them on the court.

That's where Mike Brown has come in. He is actually teaching players how to think on the court, and when he catches them not thinking he calls a time out and reminds them what he taught them.

I thought the hire was ho hum, but hearing him talk about his philosophy and actually seeing the results is what has me excited.

They have talent, but Brown is bringing that talent out. That brings each player's NBA2K rating up a minimum of 2 points all by itself. In real life its priceless. Monte has gotten talent with a vision toward fitting the pieces. Brown is now fitting them together. Monte needs an extension to see this thru at the very least.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I thought the hire was ho hum, but hearing him talk about his philosophy and actually seeing the results is what has me excited.

NGL that I was ho hum on it until it was a 2-way between him and Jackson and then I started doing the reading that convinced me it was as good as any "young & hungry" hire. First off, he's not as old as a guy who's been kicking around the coaching ranks for 20 years should be. Second of all, he helped mold a young LeBron on a pretty otherwise mediocre squad into a finals player. The only other coach to survive as long as Brown with LeBron was Spoelstra, and in that case LeBron left. Third off, following the sour stretch in Los Angeles, he got a rebuild year in Cleveland and then has been stuck as a top level assistant for almost 10 years. Isn't that what we wanted? A top assistant? And unlike a guy like Ham who can fail with the Lakers and probably get another shot in 3-4 years, Brown might be not getting another shot. Anyways, I think he's a quality hire and in hindsight I can't believe he was available to us.

Beyond that - we picked up several assistants, Jordi Fernandez being just one of whom - who meets that "top assistant" tag that I was hoping we'd go for with a new coach. And then we got the grizzled veteran assistant in Jay Triano that I'd have demanded if we went with a guy like Fernandez as HC. So it's like we got the best of all possible worlds, plus we were able to keep Doug and I don't think that is Brown just doing Vivek a solid.

This is as good a staff as we've had since Adelman and Coachie and it has the potential to top that. Incidentally retread Adelman was the same age as Brown when he took the job. Lots of little similarities in the rebuilds and I am hoping for the same results without NBA refs jobbing us out of a Finals appearance.

 

[macadocious]

He should have hit this 2 months ago when it was 32.5. Such an easy over .

I think 34.5 is still fine to hit the over too, although less of a slam. The proper line is like 36.5 where I'd start considering the under.

I got a size able bet at 31.5 when lines first opened.

 

[PorchSurfin]

I got a size able bet at 31.5 when lines first opened.

Even at 34.5 I would be hard pressed to not place a bet on the over, from what I have seen. Is it 2 to 1 payout?

 

[macadocious]

No, straight up. Who gets odds on O/U bets? It’s w a buddy, so no vig.

 

[PorchSurfin]

NGL that I was ho hum on it until it was a 2-way between him and Jackson and then I started doing the reading that convinced me it was as good as any "young & hungry" hire. First off, he's not as old as a guy who's been kicking around the coaching ranks for 20 years should be. Second of all, he helped mold a young LeBron on a pretty otherwise mediocre squad into a finals player. The only other coach to survive as long as Brown with LeBron was Spoelstra, and in that case LeBron left. Third off, following the sour stretch in Los Angeles, he got a rebuild year in Cleveland and then has been stuck as a top level assistant for almost 10 years. Isn't that what we wanted? A top assistant? And unlike a guy like Ham who can fail with the Lakers and probably get another shot in 3-4 years, Brown might be not getting another shot. Anyways, I think he's a quality hire and in hindsight I can't believe he was available to us.

Beyond that - we picked up several assistants, Jordi Fernandez being just one of whom - who meets that "top assistant" tag that I was hoping we'd go for with a new coach. And then we got the grizzled veteran assistant in Jay Triano that I'd have demanded if we went with a guy like Fernandez as HC. So it's like we got the best of all possible worlds, plus we were able to keep Doug and I don't think that is Brown just doing Vivek a solid.

This is as good a staff as we've had since Adelman and Coachie and it has the potential to top that. Incidentally retread Adelman was the same age as Brown when he took the job. Lots of little similarities in the rebuilds and I am hoping for the same results without NBA refs jobbing us out of a Finals appearance.

Jordi WILL be a head coach someday. And probably very soon. Not sure the last time that could be said about a Kings assistant but it's true now

 

[PorchSurfin]

No, straight up. Who gets odds on O/U bets? It’s w a buddy, so no vig.

Idk what vig is.

2 to 1 for me meant if you bet $1 and win you get $2.

 

[macadocious]

Vig is what a casino or bookie charges. It’s usually 10-11%. So bet $110 to win $100.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

Unless the team actually proves me otherwise, I am not expecting anything better than what they have been able to produce since the 2005-2006 season. I've spent way too many years since then telling myself that "this will be the year we finally make the playoffs", only to have my heart ripped out.

I am no longer subjecting myself to that torture.

I have no expectations.

 

[serbiangoat]

I say 36/37 with a little chunk coming in when the season is finished just enough to have no chance at the top 2 elite picks. If the Kings have any sanity if they are below 500. at All-Star break they should trade Fox/Sabonis and Barnes and go all in on the tank. Going for the play-in which is a joke in itself should not be the goal.

 

[ockingsfan]

IMHO, the Kings will shock the NBA and finish in 6th place and 48 wins. They will take the NBA by surprise, much like Memphis did a couple of years ago.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

IMHO, the Kings will shock the NBA and finish in 6th place and 48 wins. They will take the NBA by surprise, much like Memphis did a couple of years ago.

I don't think this is unrealistic at all.

 

[kb02]

He should have hit this 2 months ago when it was 32.5. Such an easy over .

I think 34.5 is still fine to hit the over too, although less of a slam. The proper line is like 36.5 where I'd start considering the under.

I had the Kings around 33/34 in the summer with a one SD swing in either direction. While Brown's accountability is encouraging, I haven't seen anything to change that calculus. Fans get excited by rookies or new additions or diamonds in the rough. That's great, but their output is meaningless in the NBA. The NBA is a star's league. There are only 5 players on the floor for your team. A star's impact, especially a two way beast, is outsized relative to any other team sport. The Kings improve if Domas or Fox jumps levels. Domas looks like his normal, borderline all star self. Efficient. Elite passer for a 5, but no consistent outside three point shot, so teams will continue to sag and play the passing lanes. Tries hard on defense, but not quite enough length to be a true deterrent. Fox looks like he's plateaued. His three looks better and he's playing more under control. But he still doesn't make others better, still plays more like a two guard than a lead guard, and plays defense only when Brown reminds him to do so.

 

[kb02]

No, straight up. Who gets odds on O/U bets? It’s w a buddy, so no vig.

I personally hate playing against a buddy. Rather go against a third party. Less guilt.

 

[The_Jamal]

I had the Kings around 33/34 in the summer with a one SD swing in either direction. While Brown's accountability is encouraging, I haven't seen anything to change that calculus. Fans get excited by rookies or new additions or diamonds in the rough. That's great, but their output is meaningless in the NBA. The NBA is a star's league. There are only 5 players on the floor for your team. A star's impact, especially a two way beast, is outsized relative to any other team sport. The Kings improve if Domas or Fox jumps levels. Domas looks like his normal, borderline all star self. Efficient. Elite passer for a 5, but no consistent outside three point shot, so teams will continue to sag and play the passing lanes. Tries hard on defense, but not quite enough length to be a true deterrent. Fox looks like he's plateaued. His three looks better and he's playing more under control. But he still doesn't make others better, still plays more like a two guard than a lead guard, and plays defense only when Brown reminds him to do so.

That's true in the playoffs and for the top 5-7 teams, but I don't think you can underrate quality rotation additions when you're talking about a team going from bad to average. 30 to 37 wins is significantly more attainable than going from 44 to 51 wins; that requires a star leap from someone within your organization. The former just requires you playing reasonably good consistent basketball and staying healthy.

And from the start of last season, Brown, Sabonis, Huerter, Murray, Monk while getting Holmes and TD healthy is a significant upgrade to what the team dealt with for a majority of last season. A lot of people have pointed this out already, but Metu played the 6th most minutes on the team last year; he's not going to touch the floor this season outside of injury.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

That's true in the playoffs and for the top 5-7 teams, but I don't think you can underrate quality rotation additions when you're talking about a team going from bad to average. 30 to 37 wins is significantly more attainable than going from 44 to 51 wins; that requires a star leap from someone within your organization. The former just requires you playing reasonably good consistent basketball and staying healthy.

And from the start of last season, Brown, Sabonis, Huerter, Murray, Monk while getting Holmes and TD healthy is a significant upgrade to what the team dealt with for a majority of last season. A lot of people have pointed this out already, but Metu played the 6th most minutes on the team last year; he's not going to touch the floor this season outside of injury.

It may be a star's league but any team is only as good as the worst or two worst players on the floor. The Kings for years have not fielded 5 competent starters on their roster, let alone an 8 deep rotation.

And it may be a players' league but coaching also matters and I think the drop from an invested Joerger, to a lukewarm Joerger to an idiot like Luke tells you all you need to know. Brown's accountability and actual system should net anywhere from 4-10 wins on its own.

And you see "unexpected leaps" all the time, a lot of people who have been riding the Kings for laughs for years are suddenly talking about us in a positive way because they want to take some kind of credit for being the first to figure it out. This is far from a guarantee, but pretending this year is business as usual just strikes me as pretty strange.