Where do we finish?
- Thread starter Turgenev
- Start date
Assuming, of course, a serious injury bug doesn't strike - if they can keep the offense moving and hitting 3's (with this roster we should be able to) and make their living on the defense (and with this coaching staff I don't think you play if you don't), we can probably get into the lower rungs of the PO without needing the play-in.
Playoffs. And if it's the play-in it will be a disappointed "whatever" from me.
I like the fact that Brown has been given a ton of of time for coaching this team in the preseason. There's no stupid India trip to contend with, just long stretches of uninterrupted time for coaching, something this team desperately needs. I'm thinking/hoping that this team will be able to get off to decent start, despite the fact that 7 out of the first 10 games come against very good teams.
I like the fact that Brown has been given a ton of of time for coaching this team in the preseason. There's no stupid India trip to contend with, just long stretches of uninterrupted time for coaching, something this team desperately needs. I'm thinking/hoping that this team will be able to get off to decent start, despite the fact that 7 out of the first 10 games come against very good teams.
Given the make-up of the West this season, and improvements made across various Western Conference rosters, as well as notable recoveries from injury on a couple of key teams, I'd say the Kings could reasonably be considered an 8th or 7th seed this season based on their talent, their coaching staff overhaul, and their performance in the preseason.
I don't think the play-in is a high enough bar, and I think it would be disappointing if they weren't at least a lower-seed playoff entrant heading into the post-season. The Kings have starter-level talent all over their roster now, and the importance of that cannot be overstated. They have length all over the roster. They have passing and shooting all over the roster. The defense remains a question mark, but the preseason returns are certainly encouraging.
I have been mightily impressed with Mike Brown since he arrived. I didn't give Monte much credit for that hire initially, believing Brown to be a safe and uninspiring choice. But it could be that he's exactly what this team needs, and if the roster buys in to Brown's messaging and truly holds itself accountable to the upper limits of it's ability, then I think the Kings are quite definitively a playoff team this season.
I don't think the play-in is a high enough bar, and I think it would be disappointing if they weren't at least a lower-seed playoff entrant heading into the post-season. The Kings have starter-level talent all over their roster now, and the importance of that cannot be overstated. They have length all over the roster. They have passing and shooting all over the roster. The defense remains a question mark, but the preseason returns are certainly encouraging.
I have been mightily impressed with Mike Brown since he arrived. I didn't give Monte much credit for that hire initially, believing Brown to be a safe and uninspiring choice. But it could be that he's exactly what this team needs, and if the roster buys in to Brown's messaging and truly holds itself accountable to the upper limits of it's ability, then I think the Kings are quite definitively a playoff team this season.
Sacramento Kings: 34.5 wins
My pick: Under
While this over/under is close to the Kings’ 30 wins from 2021-22, they had the minus-5.9 differential of a 26.6-win squad, making this a steeper hill to climb than some may think. It is reasonable to expect an offensive jump, as they now get a full season of Domantas Sabonis after posting a strong 116.2 offensive rating (80th percentile) when Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox shared the floor last season, far higher than their 109.9 figure for the full season. A push on that end may be enough.
But it would really help to improve defensively, and I am less confident that will happen. New head coach Mike Brown should help set a stronger tone, but Sabonis is typically a defensive liability, and the Kings have very few good defenders in their rotation at the moment. This is a close call with the distinct possibility they go over even with a bottom-five defense, but I am still leaning under.
Edit: Hollinger: 10. Sacramento Kings: 37-45
https://theathletic.com/3685200/2022/10/14/win-totals-over-under-nba-western-conference/
My pick: Under
While this over/under is close to the Kings’ 30 wins from 2021-22, they had the minus-5.9 differential of a 26.6-win squad, making this a steeper hill to climb than some may think. It is reasonable to expect an offensive jump, as they now get a full season of Domantas Sabonis after posting a strong 116.2 offensive rating (80th percentile) when Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox shared the floor last season, far higher than their 109.9 figure for the full season. A push on that end may be enough.
But it would really help to improve defensively, and I am less confident that will happen. New head coach Mike Brown should help set a stronger tone, but Sabonis is typically a defensive liability, and the Kings have very few good defenders in their rotation at the moment. This is a close call with the distinct possibility they go over even with a bottom-five defense, but I am still leaning under.
Edit: Hollinger: 10. Sacramento Kings: 37-45
https://theathletic.com/3685200/2022/10/14/win-totals-over-under-nba-western-conference/
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The Kings are built for regular season success. (And, of course it's all relative - in this case, relative to postseason success.) A resounding YES on the point about starter-level talent - Fox, Ox, HB, Huerter, Monk, Davion, Holmes, Murray - plus a bunch of guys who might not normally be considered starer-quality but complement the *starters* very nicely in one way or another. Barring an injury spree, the convo of pace, hustle, depth (and a coach willing to use that depth) will serve this team VERY nicely in the regular season.
And, yes, the defense remains a question mark, but I think depth, hustle, and Brown's real emphasis on defense makes "average" a plausible goal.
Getting out to a decent W-L starts, even with the tough opening stretch, will be important.
And, yes, the defense remains a question mark, but I think depth, hustle, and Brown's real emphasis on defense makes "average" a plausible goal.
Getting out to a decent W-L starts, even with the tough opening stretch, will be important.
Defense will continue to be a problem. When Fox is averaging 30 we will be very hard to beat. Mike Brown's system will help but one year is tough to see big dividends. Depth isn't where it needs to be.
I think anywhere from 34-48 wins is where we end up, and finishing around .500 might be the most realistic optimistic projection. That puts us in the play-in which will require us getting wins over teams with playoff experience and more time together. That's really hard to see.
I think there will be a lot more roster moves and with a little seasoning and experience we see 50 wins in Mike Brown year 2.
I think anywhere from 34-48 wins is where we end up, and finishing around .500 might be the most realistic optimistic projection. That puts us in the play-in which will require us getting wins over teams with playoff experience and more time together. That's really hard to see.
I think there will be a lot more roster moves and with a little seasoning and experience we see 50 wins in Mike Brown year 2.
it will all defend on Fox. Sabonis doesn’t have the tools to be a defender and if we make the playoffs will fight to stay on the floor. But if he is surrounded by decent defenders he could be protected.
Okpala will be good. Barnes against the second best front line player will be okay. That means Fox and Huerter have to be above average which means Fox has to be very good.
could he be that good maybe. But he has to be convinced he way to bright lights is as Gary Payton 2.0 and by that I mean the original?
Okpala will be good. Barnes against the second best front line player will be okay. That means Fox and Huerter have to be above average which means Fox has to be very good.
could he be that good maybe. But he has to be convinced he way to bright lights is as Gary Payton 2.0 and by that I mean the original?