The (legal) sports betting/gambling thread
- Thread starter Warhawk
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For today's LAR vs. Tampa game, I have the score 21.2 Rams to 27.2 Tampa. Giving 3 points to the home team, otherwise the score would be 21.2 to 24.2.
The spread is -2.5 and the Over and Under LIne is 48. Both teams are in the top 5 in passing and in the bottom 5 in running offense. So you would think the over is the play, but given the delta between the score prediction and the line is 0.4 points while the delta for the score with the +3 home field bump is greater, I'm taking the Bucs to win. Playing the money line and the current spread at -2.5. Though I really want the LARs to win as a Niner fan, so it’ll be two small plays. Since I wouldn’t be too bummed if the Rams win.
The spread is -2.5 and the Over and Under LIne is 48. Both teams are in the top 5 in passing and in the bottom 5 in running offense. So you would think the over is the play, but given the delta between the score prediction and the line is 0.4 points while the delta for the score with the +3 home field bump is greater, I'm taking the Bucs to win. Playing the money line and the current spread at -2.5. Though I really want the LARs to win as a Niner fan, so it’ll be two small plays. Since I wouldn’t be too bummed if the Rams win.
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My models have the weekend scores as:
Cin: 23.9 to KC: 29.3. Gave 3 points to KC for the home team. The spread is 7.5 and the over/under is at 54.5. I was planning to play the over, but going to sit it out now. Want Cincy to win.
SF: 20.7 to LAR: 22.6. Did not give home team points to the Rams, because the Niners will likely have more fans on Sunday. But didn't give the points to the Niners as well. The Niners have the more balanced defense, coming in at #6 for passing and #6 for rushing defense. The biggest mismatch is the LAR's run offense (#23) vs the Niners run def (#6). Going against the models, choosing the team that has won 6 straight, and the much better defense and taking the Niners ML. Big play, but not all of my season's net winnings, because I don't trust Jimmy G. Go Niners!
Cin: 23.9 to KC: 29.3. Gave 3 points to KC for the home team. The spread is 7.5 and the over/under is at 54.5. I was planning to play the over, but going to sit it out now. Want Cincy to win.
SF: 20.7 to LAR: 22.6. Did not give home team points to the Rams, because the Niners will likely have more fans on Sunday. But didn't give the points to the Niners as well. The Niners have the more balanced defense, coming in at #6 for passing and #6 for rushing defense. The biggest mismatch is the LAR's run offense (#23) vs the Niners run def (#6). Going against the models, choosing the team that has won 6 straight, and the much better defense and taking the Niners ML. Big play, but not all of my season's net winnings, because I don't trust Jimmy G. Go Niners!
I got this game 22.6 (Cincy) to 23.7 (Rams). Although the game is in LA, I'm not giving the Rams 3 points as the home team. Mostly because the fan composition of a Super Bowl is different than your typical regular season game. The spread is 4 points and the over/under is 48.5. I'm going to buy a half a point and take Cincy +4.5. Big play.
Kings open on DK at 32.5 Wins at +100. Think this is an outstanding line; 3.5 games worse than our opening win total last year, basically saying full year of Sabonis/Brown/Huerter/Monk/Murray additions are only worth 3 more wins from last season after all the in-season turmoil. Things don't even have to go right for this to hit; just everyone staying relatively healthy for 65+ games.
Also like the Twolves at 47.5, -130. Gobert is a major elevator in the regular season and I think books are pretty severely underrating their defensive upside now with him aboard. Gobert has never had a below 12th ranked defense on any team he's been on since he's been a starter and the Twolves were already one of the best offensive teams in the league last year.
Also like the Twolves at 47.5, -130. Gobert is a major elevator in the regular season and I think books are pretty severely underrating their defensive upside now with him aboard. Gobert has never had a below 12th ranked defense on any team he's been on since he's been a starter and the Twolves were already one of the best offensive teams in the league last year.
I would take the over on the Kings mostly because of Vivek's desperation to make the play in. Any other context and I'd likely stay away, because most teams would tank if they're teetering around 33 wins.
DK likely ran projections and 95% of the Kings projected win total was between 30 to 36 wins. Split the difference and offered a teaser at 32.5. What I find more interesting is they likely see a 2.5% of chance of the Kings winning less than 30 games (tank for Victor!!!) and a 2.5% chance of the Kings winning more than 36 games and easily making the playoffs. 97.5% odds the Kings will have < 37 wins.
DK likely ran projections and 95% of the Kings projected win total was between 30 to 36 wins. Split the difference and offered a teaser at 32.5. What I find more interesting is they likely see a 2.5% of chance of the Kings winning less than 30 games (tank for Victor!!!) and a 2.5% chance of the Kings winning more than 36 games and easily making the playoffs. 97.5% odds the Kings will have < 37 wins.
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I think this is another huge factor too, especially down the stretch. While other teams go into super tank mode, we'll keep chugging along, especially if we're still healthy. Talent wise, this team is probably like 37-38 wins, assuming normal distribution of play from the core and Brown is the expected coaching upgrade from Walton.
A lot of this line is just expecting the Kings to be the typical "KANGZ" and discounting the pretty significant changes from the start of last year. Especially if the Jazz trade Mitchell out of the West, the Kings are pretty clearly at worst the 11th in the conference. Which very easily could still have them hitting the over with this line.
Another that stood out was the Pacers over at 24.5 at -110. Perhaps pricing in Myles Turner being trade before the off-season? But at this point, especially after losing Ayton, I think he at least plays with them through the deadline and is a significant upgrade to what they had last year. TJM is healthy, Hali/Buddy get a full training camp, Mathurin should be in play as a top 5 rookie and they have some good youth that's all a year older. Big risk is them trading Turner and shutting their whole team down again at the end of the year to tank, but this team is clearly more talented than a 24.5 line. It's tough to be that bad.
A lot of this line is just expecting the Kings to be the typical "KANGZ" and discounting the pretty significant changes from the start of last year. Especially if the Jazz trade Mitchell out of the West, the Kings are pretty clearly at worst the 11th in the conference. Which very easily could still have them hitting the over with this line.
Another that stood out was the Pacers over at 24.5 at -110. Perhaps pricing in Myles Turner being trade before the off-season? But at this point, especially after losing Ayton, I think he at least plays with them through the deadline and is a significant upgrade to what they had last year. TJM is healthy, Hali/Buddy get a full training camp, Mathurin should be in play as a top 5 rookie and they have some good youth that's all a year older. Big risk is them trading Turner and shutting their whole team down again at the end of the year to tank, but this team is clearly more talented than a 24.5 line. It's tough to be that bad.
Kings line moved from -1.5 to -3.5. Vegas likely thinks Fox will be playing. I'm more interested in the battle of the boards. The Kings are #25 in offensive rebounds, but #2 in defensive rebounds. While the Magic are #8 in offensive and defensive boards.
Think the Kings numbers are part strategy part being undersized. Spread out on offense, not much length = not many offensive boards. Not quite sure how they're gobbling so many defensive boards. Funneling?
Wonder how that's going to work against the Magic, who, without doing any homework, is one of the tallest, if not the tallest starting lineup in the league. Suggs (6'4), Wagner (6'9), Banchero (6'10), Carter (6'9), and Bol (7'2).
I'm not confident in this game. Going to sit it out or buy some points and take the Magic at 5+.
Think the Kings numbers are part strategy part being undersized. Spread out on offense, not much length = not many offensive boards. Not quite sure how they're gobbling so many defensive boards. Funneling?
Wonder how that's going to work against the Magic, who, without doing any homework, is one of the tallest, if not the tallest starting lineup in the league. Suggs (6'4), Wagner (6'9), Banchero (6'10), Carter (6'9), and Bol (7'2).
I'm not confident in this game. Going to sit it out or buy some points and take the Magic at 5+.
Kings are +7.5 against the dubs tonight. Statistically, both teams are in the bottom 10 in expected and projected win rate. Though the Dubs have a top 3 player and three championships, including last year's, to indicate that they'll right the ship. As for the Kings, the Kangz history = par for da course.
The full game spread is a bit too tight for my liking. Kings can be down 5 points, but end up fouling at the end and giving the dubs an 8 point win. Or the Kings can be down double digits (a common occurrence), the Dubs play their second unit, and then they backdoor a cover (like the last dubs game). So I think I'm going to sit that out.
The play is the 1Q and 1H over. Got two near top ten offenses in the 1H, especially the 1Q and the two worse defenses in the 1H (especially the 1Q) going at it. Translation, the dubs will be complacent to let Fox run, run, run, run in the 1H (especially, again, the 1Q). Only way the 1H goes under is a team wide, -2 SD horrible shooting night in the 1H from the starters.
The full game spread is a bit too tight for my liking. Kings can be down 5 points, but end up fouling at the end and giving the dubs an 8 point win. Or the Kings can be down double digits (a common occurrence), the Dubs play their second unit, and then they backdoor a cover (like the last dubs game). So I think I'm going to sit that out.
The play is the 1Q and 1H over. Got two near top ten offenses in the 1H, especially the 1Q and the two worse defenses in the 1H (especially the 1Q) going at it. Translation, the dubs will be complacent to let Fox run, run, run, run in the 1H (especially, again, the 1Q). Only way the 1H goes under is a team wide, -2 SD horrible shooting night in the 1H from the starters.
Cavs are -4. I don't see a close game. Cavs lead in almost every statistical category and are going to dominate the interior on both sides of the ball, compressing the court, and forcing the Kings to lob contested threes all game long. Barring a 2 SD performance from Len or Holmes (highly unlikely given the size mismatch), I think the game will be a blowout. We'll see.