NO does not need Zion to be better than the Kings. They got Herb Jones and Trey Murphy last year. And Dyson Daniels this year. Jones and Daniels are going to be terrorizing the west for yrs. Add Zion, CJ and others and they’re my pick for most improved next year. The Kings would be better off with Jones, Murphy, and Daniels than with Mitchell, Queta, and Murray.
Looking to the year ahead.
- Thread starter sactowndog
- Start date
I think we have a legitimate starting 5 and currently at least 3 bench guys worthy of ~16mpg. We are very thin at "3" though, which is essentially going to be platooned by tweeners for now, which is the most troubling need to address. But yes, on paper, I think we match up with 05-06 and are a slight improvement over 2018-19 which was a team that should have been .500 or better, though still would have finished several games out of the playoffs.
NO will probably pull a Phoenix two seasons ago. They were 1-12 or something to start the year last year. Much like how Phoenix won their entire bubble schedule, this is a team that finished the season very strong and was crippled by their start. Who cares about Zion, I can't believe they maxed him out, that was a good team without him. Him sucking and becoming a distraction is probably the best hope for a lot of the West. If he actually plays halfway decent then they can probably ship him for more ammo, they don't need him.
I agree they don't need Zion, and I think they have a better long term trajectory than the Kings right now. But Zion complicates things. I am not sure their team (without Zion) is that much better than the Kings this year. There is a lot of good talent, and I think they are definitely better in years to come, but without Zion, I don't think they are materially better than us THIS year.
I also don't see it with Zion. He is an awful fit for that team, and I don't think he makes anyone better. I think they will regret the decision to max him for a long time. I would much rather have built around Ingram, CJ, Jones, Murphy, and Daniels, with additional cap space, than have Zion clogging the cap sheet.
But for this year, I think the Pellies are around a 40-45 win team, which is where I am hoping Sac will land when all shakes out. I think Portland is around that mark as well.
I also don't see it with Zion. He is an awful fit for that team, and I don't think he makes anyone better. I think they will regret the decision to max him for a long time. I would much rather have built around Ingram, CJ, Jones, Murphy, and Daniels, with additional cap space, than have Zion clogging the cap sheet.
But for this year, I think the Pellies are around a 40-45 win team, which is where I am hoping Sac will land when all shakes out. I think Portland is around that mark as well.
I'm not going to bank on Dallas clearly being better than the Kings. The loss of Brunson is a pretty big deal, imo. So then they have Doncic and Dinwiddie and a lot of mediocrity. I think the Kings have better talent overall. The other teams you mentioned are clearly better, though if Phoenix doesn't get decent compensation for Ayton, they would drop below the Kings, imo.
Minni is a wildcard. This is a twin-towers experiment in an age of 3 point shooting. The big-man lovers should be wild about this move (where is Brick when you need him?). I'm skeptical. Until Gobert can punish smaller players in the paint to the point where he's almost at a 90% efficiency level I see teams spreading the floor with 3-point shooters to negate his length. Not only does Gobert have to develop the offensive skill, but the wings have to have the skill to get him the ball in the right positions and overall the team has to have the discipline to repeatedly go to him the paint to punish the opposing teams. I don't see it happening, but it should be fun to see the experiment. In addition, KAT is going to have to chase wings around the perimeter of defense, which I have a hard time believing until I see it. At the least, Gobert can come in for KAT so they'll always have a big guy on the floor.
The Lakers have LBJ one year older, which is just worse. He'll be 38 years old in January with miles and miles of wear on the tread. It augers for an even worse defensive performance, less stamina, and significantly higher risk of injury. Then they've got AD, who plays 50% of the time. Even if they get Irving for a song, if LBJ gets injured the AD & Irving show would make the Durant & Irving show look like a party. I kind of feel sorry for their young coach. It might get ugly.
The team I see as the competition for the Kings to get in the 8th slot is Portland. Lillard is back. They've added some fairly good FAs. The games the Kings play against Portland could loom pretty large for the playoff picture.
Minni is a wildcard. This is a twin-towers experiment in an age of 3 point shooting. The big-man lovers should be wild about this move (where is Brick when you need him?). I'm skeptical. Until Gobert can punish smaller players in the paint to the point where he's almost at a 90% efficiency level I see teams spreading the floor with 3-point shooters to negate his length. Not only does Gobert have to develop the offensive skill, but the wings have to have the skill to get him the ball in the right positions and overall the team has to have the discipline to repeatedly go to him the paint to punish the opposing teams. I don't see it happening, but it should be fun to see the experiment. In addition, KAT is going to have to chase wings around the perimeter of defense, which I have a hard time believing until I see it. At the least, Gobert can come in for KAT so they'll always have a big guy on the floor.
The Lakers have LBJ one year older, which is just worse. He'll be 38 years old in January with miles and miles of wear on the tread. It augers for an even worse defensive performance, less stamina, and significantly higher risk of injury. Then they've got AD, who plays 50% of the time. Even if they get Irving for a song, if LBJ gets injured the AD & Irving show would make the Durant & Irving show look like a party. I kind of feel sorry for their young coach. It might get ugly.
The team I see as the competition for the Kings to get in the 8th slot is Portland. Lillard is back. They've added some fairly good FAs. The games the Kings play against Portland could loom pretty large for the playoff picture.
I'd feel a lot better with another 3/4 bench wing (Okogie? Caleb Martin? Vezenkov?), but I think the 8-man rotation is pretty solid and right in the mix with those 7--14 ranked teams. And if T.Davis comes back healthy/Trey Lyles performs like he did last year in a Kings uni, the Kings will have a confident 10-man rotation, although not perfectly balanced.This is probably the first season where we aren't wistfully hoping the Kings are good; the coaching staff and talent is actually good enough to be a bottom-tier playoff team if guys perform to expectation.
Sir did you just day let Zion walk?
I can no longer read anything else you said after that
And for those who say Zion doesn't make his team better clearly has just forgotten that this kid is a freakin beast when healthy. The only ? Is can he stay healthy to earn the max. On a talent level there is no question he deserves the max. None
I can no longer read anything else you said after that
And for those who say Zion doesn't make his team better clearly has just forgotten that this kid is a freakin beast when healthy. The only ? Is can he stay healthy to earn the max. On a talent level there is no question he deserves the max. None
Last edited:
Poor phrasing. Maybe not "let him walk," but I would not have signed the extension. In a binary world, where you either extend him for the max or you don't, I would choose to not extend him every single time, based on what we know. Put it differently, if you (today) had to choose to pay Zion, would you choose A or B?
Option A
2022-23- $13.5M
2023 and beyond- $0 committed, but with the potential to agree later, based on further data points
Option B
2022-23- $13.5M
23-24- $33M
24-25- $36M
25-26- $39M
26-27- $41M
27-28- $44M
I would choose Option A every time. And I think the Pellies would be better off choosing Option A and committing the money that is in Option B to spending around players who compliment there otherwise great core. Take what is good (Ingram, McCollum, and the young guys) and use the Zion money to build around that. Don't commit $200M to a guy who literally cannot stay healthy, and doesn't impact your ability to win games all that much, even when he is healthy.
Better yet, I would explore Option C, which would have been don't extend him and let him become a restricted free agent in 2023. So he plays for you in 2022-2023, you get another data point on whether he is actually able to (you know) play at a high level, and then you let the market set his value in 2023-2024. You can still match any offer, so you could still pay him $200M if some other team throws that money at him. Or, given that he might not want to play in New Orleans, you let some stupid, cap strapped team like the Lakers or Knicks dramatically overpay him and then need your help to get him in a sign and trade. So Option C means you get to take a wait and see approach, and then potentially get something if you either don't want to match, or Zion lets it be known that you shouldn't match.
I suppose he could always take the qualifying offer and become Unrestricted in 2024, but for someone with as much trouble staying healthy, I think he would have gone for the bag in 2023.
So yeah, if my choices were extend him or not in 2022, I would have chosen "not," and then tried to either match a restricted free agency offer sheet in 2023, or let him walk where he wants as part of a sign and trade (extracting goodies with the threat that you could just match any team's offer). Of all of the choices, giving him the full bag in 2022 was the worst one. And I do think, long term, the Pellies are way better off without Zio eating up $40M per year.
Option A
2022-23- $13.5M
2023 and beyond- $0 committed, but with the potential to agree later, based on further data points
Option B
2022-23- $13.5M
23-24- $33M
24-25- $36M
25-26- $39M
26-27- $41M
27-28- $44M
I would choose Option A every time. And I think the Pellies would be better off choosing Option A and committing the money that is in Option B to spending around players who compliment there otherwise great core. Take what is good (Ingram, McCollum, and the young guys) and use the Zion money to build around that. Don't commit $200M to a guy who literally cannot stay healthy, and doesn't impact your ability to win games all that much, even when he is healthy.
Better yet, I would explore Option C, which would have been don't extend him and let him become a restricted free agent in 2023. So he plays for you in 2022-2023, you get another data point on whether he is actually able to (you know) play at a high level, and then you let the market set his value in 2023-2024. You can still match any offer, so you could still pay him $200M if some other team throws that money at him. Or, given that he might not want to play in New Orleans, you let some stupid, cap strapped team like the Lakers or Knicks dramatically overpay him and then need your help to get him in a sign and trade. So Option C means you get to take a wait and see approach, and then potentially get something if you either don't want to match, or Zion lets it be known that you shouldn't match.
I suppose he could always take the qualifying offer and become Unrestricted in 2024, but for someone with as much trouble staying healthy, I think he would have gone for the bag in 2023.
So yeah, if my choices were extend him or not in 2022, I would have chosen "not," and then tried to either match a restricted free agency offer sheet in 2023, or let him walk where he wants as part of a sign and trade (extracting goodies with the threat that you could just match any team's offer). Of all of the choices, giving him the full bag in 2022 was the worst one. And I do think, long term, the Pellies are way better off without Zio eating up $40M per year.
Agree to disagree on this one sir. I think Zion is a generational talent who was just not healthy last year. He is not a ayton type talent you can take a chance on burning your bridges with.
A healthy zion and they are in the offs. No question
As far as our team is concerned. I see no reason why we can't compete with anytime not named warriors. Are potenal is as good as anyone else's. Jist need to stay Healthy and we are in there like swim wear
A healthy zion and they are in the offs. No question
As far as our team is concerned. I see no reason why we can't compete with anytime not named warriors. Are potenal is as good as anyone else's. Jist need to stay Healthy and we are in there like swim wear
Fair enough. But I suspect that if Zion was a King, this board would have gone full meltdown if we had offered a full max extension this summer, and would have clamored to let him go to restricted free agency next summer. Put another way, it is easy to "commit" big money to someone else's free agent.
Yeah, this is the first all in they've gone with since then probably. I was more into the idea of keeping things flexible in case a star becomes available via trade and Monte has pretty much made it practically impossible with the gutsy Vlade style moves he made this summer. Took the fit guy they wanted (who does actually fit this time! lol so solid move) above using the pick to maximize assets, spent his money, used his expirings, and even encumbered a future first so even putting together a package for a star via trade at the deadline is almost impossible. That said, he went all in on Fox by doing exactly what he wanted. This is something this team hasn't even tried since drafting him. If you're going all in, THIS is how you do it. Now the hope is Fox and Sabonis as a star duo with Murray and Barnes as your next best and a bunch of shooting is enough. Go Kings!
The double-edge sword of waiting for a star to potentially become available is what happens if he doesn't in the next 2 years? Do you just watch Sabonis walk in FA because you never even attempted to put the right pieces around him? And considering some of the prices these guys are getting moved for this off-season, is it even worth paying that price-tag?
The interesting aspect of this team build is this team is built around Fox/Sabonis being stars, but there's still upside in most of the supporting talent. He aged down the core by a considerable amount. Between Mitchell, Murray, Monk, Huerter, T.Davis; the Kings have some options for a 3rd guy to pop and elevate this team further. The team build isn't done, but I think this was a really strong summer to start off and Monte has to cap it next off-season with some cap space to work with, but basically all the core still intact.
The interesting aspect of this team build is this team is built around Fox/Sabonis being stars, but there's still upside in most of the supporting talent. He aged down the core by a considerable amount. Between Mitchell, Murray, Monk, Huerter, T.Davis; the Kings have some options for a 3rd guy to pop and elevate this team further. The team build isn't done, but I think this was a really strong summer to start off and Monte has to cap it next off-season with some cap space to work with, but basically all the core still intact.
That's the gamble, but we also know what it looks like when you cement yourself in before you have any guarantees in terms of success. It was up until just a few months ago that the last holdover was finally swept out of the coaching position from the last go around. Now, if they don't win, Sabonis walks or if it's obvious this isn't going anywhere they sell off at a discount, AND you potentially struggle to rebuild as quick as they might have before. Like I said, gutsy, and since they basically did everything Fox asked for and more, I'm cool with it because I do think Fox is that guy.
Right. This is the first Fox lead team that actually makes sense to me from a team comp standpoint. Obviously defense is still an issue from top to bottom, but at least we've surrounded him with the right mix of shooters and playmakers. If this team cannot work effectively I don't think there will be a team that can and we need to make a major decision come February. But I do think the Kings are going to surprise some people and I think they wind up around .500. I actually think they are better than that most years but the West is pretty crazy. Even the worst teams in the conference have some insanely talented, high upside players. So it wouldn't surprise me if we drop games to teams worse than us throughout the year.
We don't get zion level prospects, and if we did I doubt we wouldn't want yo give him the max if we plan on winning a championship. Say what you sent about the health he's a top 10 player when he's playing and he's still hella young. 10 times out of 10 you take your chances with that type of talent. Even though yes it's risky. But I don't think it's on MP level with that back issue and dam sure not Oden level common
Personally I believe we did everything almost right this offseason. Even the pick I'm warming up to a bit. This team gives fox the full keys. 1st time we did this with a player since I can remember. Even cousins was never built around. WCS pick comes to mind. Lets just sit back and enjoy the show. Who knows. Maybe Mitchell turns another gear. We have some young talent that can easily get better. No more minute wasting vets on the team thank God. Only one I don't care for on this team as far as upside goes is metu. But I can live with 1
With Ayton and KD potential movement unresolved, I think it is still a bit early to say. Generally agree that re GS, Phoenix, the Clippers, and Denver should be atop the west. But I do think with age and injuries, GS's margin for error is small. Phoenix is unresolved. And how good will Murray and Kawhi be coming back? Their teams are still good without them - but how good. Memphis - without JJJ for 6 months? They will be competing for the playoffs but are not a top 6 lock for me. Minnesota - I don't know. How much of their success last year was because of Beverly and Vanderbilt? NO - should be good but are pending.
Your next tier: Dallas still have Luka and will compete for the top 6. Portland - I don't know. Dame is getting older and just sat out a year. Feel like this is their last dance - but will be more Tom Waits' Closing Time than Jordan and Netflix. LA's stars are old, stubborn, and fragile. And they lost spacing and creation (to us!).
Kings obviously have question marks. They haven't done anything in 16 years. But the roster is improved compared to this time last year. It has more talent and should have a clearer offensive identity. The coaches are the most qualified they have been in (more than) 3 years. It could blow up in their face - but not out of the question that they fight for a 6 - 8 finish.
Your next tier: Dallas still have Luka and will compete for the top 6. Portland - I don't know. Dame is getting older and just sat out a year. Feel like this is their last dance - but will be more Tom Waits' Closing Time than Jordan and Netflix. LA's stars are old, stubborn, and fragile. And they lost spacing and creation (to us!).
Kings obviously have question marks. They haven't done anything in 16 years. But the roster is improved compared to this time last year. It has more talent and should have a clearer offensive identity. The coaches are the most qualified they have been in (more than) 3 years. It could blow up in their face - but not out of the question that they fight for a 6 - 8 finish.
I'm not optimistic about our playoff chances this year. The West has a lot of good, established teams and a lot of good, up & coming teams. We really needed to address both 3PT% (24th) and defense (27th) to give us a solid chance at jumping into the playoffs. We improved our shooting, but at the detriment of our defense...
Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Keegan Murray
Sasha Vezenkov
vs.
Donte DiVincenzo
Jeremy Lamb
Justin Holiday
Mo Harkless
Damian Jones
A Fox, Huerter, Barnes, Murray, & Sabonis starting lineup has great shooting around Fox & Sabonis, but it is a very weak defensive lineup. If Murray is a great defender out of the gate and Brown can somehow turn Fox into Gay Payton over night, perhaps that changes, but those are massive ifs.
I've not been very critical of McNair up to this point, but I'm a bit dejected after this offseason.
What would I have done?
Trying to stay optimistic about our chances, but I have a hard time seeing how neglecting the defensive side of the ball when building this roster is going to allow us to make the playoffs. Perhaps McNair's vision is to build an offensive juggernaut with excellent 3pt shooting, high IQ players surrounding Fox & Sabonis and bank on Brown's defense only approach to pull this crew up to mediocrity. It'll be an interesting season. That's for sure.
Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Keegan Murray
Sasha Vezenkov
vs.
Donte DiVincenzo
Jeremy Lamb
Justin Holiday
Mo Harkless
Damian Jones
A Fox, Huerter, Barnes, Murray, & Sabonis starting lineup has great shooting around Fox & Sabonis, but it is a very weak defensive lineup. If Murray is a great defender out of the gate and Brown can somehow turn Fox into Gay Payton over night, perhaps that changes, but those are massive ifs.
I've not been very critical of McNair up to this point, but I'm a bit dejected after this offseason.
- I would have much rather brought back DiVincenzo at $4.5 mil/year (or a little higher to pay the Sacramento tax) vs. letting him walk and signing Monk to $9.5 mil/year. That's a way more valuable contract for the production DiVincenzo provides, and his combination of defense & C&S 3PT% was desperately needed in our lineup. Monk has been a very offensive oriented player (similar to Fox) and a lot of what he brings to the table, Davis can do that too.
- I don't think we lost the trade value wise for Huerter, but the way we applied the protections to the pick, it could really tie up flexibility when attempting to make future trades. Handicapping our flexibility for Huerter may make sense if you think he's the final, complementary piece to your puzzle, but that's not the case here. And again, this type of deal makes us worse defensively with Holiday/Harkless going out. Don't get me wrong, Huerter is not a sieve defensively, but he's not a plus defender.
- Murray was my pick at #4 so I'm not unhappy there. Although, I was hoping for a trade down with either Detroit or Indiana. Now it's impossible to know what deals were available, but as much as I like Murray, I didn't consider him to have a great chance at becoming a star. And if that's the case, why not trade down and land a couple more useful, complementary, young pieces to further bolster the core?
What would I have done?
- I would not have signed Monk and instead resigned DiVincenzo for half the amount.
- I would not have handicapped our ability to trade future 1st round picks for the sake of Huerter.
- I would have tried to get creative at the draft to pick up further assets. Perhaps we could have combined some rumors on what Indiana offered (#6/Duarte for #4) and the Brogdon deal. Something like IND gets Theis, Nesmith, & #4. BOS gets Brogdon. SAC gets Duarte, #6, & BOS 2023 1st (Top 12 Protected). Then flipping #6 to SAS for Vassell & #9.
- I would have been engaged in trade talks around Royce O'Neale. Maybe using that BOS 2023 1st from the trade above to help land him. Would you rather have DiVincenzo, Duarte, Vassell, O'Neale, Holiday, #9, & 2023 SAC 1st or Monk, Huerter, & Murray?
- I would have been talking to TOR to see if Anunoby/Trent were available for something centered around #4 while still pursuing O'Neale as well.
Trying to stay optimistic about our chances, but I have a hard time seeing how neglecting the defensive side of the ball when building this roster is going to allow us to make the playoffs. Perhaps McNair's vision is to build an offensive juggernaut with excellent 3pt shooting, high IQ players surrounding Fox & Sabonis and bank on Brown's defense only approach to pull this crew up to mediocrity. It'll be an interesting season. That's for sure.
The Kings are a way more interesting team than before the draft and free agency. If dude’s don’t want to be here: bye bye. It’s time to buy in to Mike Brown’s program.
Monte has been eliminating the palace intrigue and side dramas and fixed our biggest offensive deficiencies: BBIQ and shooting.
Folks can play the what if game with the #4 pick, but Murray looks like a day 1 starter at the 4 position.
And I don’t think he’s done yet.
Monte has been eliminating the palace intrigue and side dramas and fixed our biggest offensive deficiencies: BBIQ and shooting.
Folks can play the what if game with the #4 pick, but Murray looks like a day 1 starter at the 4 position.
And I don’t think he’s done yet.
Some of Monks advanced defensive stats are actually good according to a couple of Kings podcasts. Huerter is considered solid. Davion will likely be much better this season. Fox has to be better or we will be screwed anyway. I’m not expecting us to be good but improved defensively.
The west is crazy stacked and yes the Huerter trade probably prevents us from making a big trade at the deadline. Still, get to the play in or better and then we have a first round pick and cap space to work on the defense the following season.
The west is crazy stacked and yes the Huerter trade probably prevents us from making a big trade at the deadline. Still, get to the play in or better and then we have a first round pick and cap space to work on the defense the following season.
Guys I don't know why we are so butt hurt on the huerter trade,you have to give something to get something.I for one don't have a problem with the trade,if we suck that bad next year it is protected,also for a couple more drafts there is heavy protection,.. I really like what monte has done,we can't just roll out the red carpet and get big free agents here with our track record..We have to go the trade route and KH meets one of our needs,the defense won't be able to bog the paint like in years past...Going to be a great year and I'm pumped,let's go!!!