KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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I think you're confusing "most complete" player/prospect with "best" player/prospect.
Player A is a 10 on offense and a 5 on defense.
Player B is a 9 on offense and a 9 on defense.
I *think* you're likely to say B is a better player/prospect than A. But basketball is much more "chemistry" than "arithmetic," and at the end of the day, as others have said, the key question is: which player most boosts their team's chance to win? Individual stats and accolades don't answer that question definitively, but I think they do better than references to basketball "roundedness."
And I say all this as someone who AGREES with you that defense is given short shrift relative to offense in most fans' assessments of player value.
Player A is a 10 on offense and a 5 on defense.
Player B is a 9 on offense and a 9 on defense.
I *think* you're likely to say B is a better player/prospect than A. But basketball is much more "chemistry" than "arithmetic," and at the end of the day, as others have said, the key question is: which player most boosts their team's chance to win? Individual stats and accolades don't answer that question definitively, but I think they do better than references to basketball "roundedness."
And I say all this as someone who AGREES with you that defense is given short shrift relative to offense in most fans' assessments of player value.
It's strange that people look at Daniels as a 1-3, but Terry is often seen as a PG. They have almost identical measurements, but Terry has a longer wingspan.
Daniels: 6'6 w/o shoes ------ 195.2lbs ------ 6'10.5 wingspan.
Terry: 6'6 w/o shoes ------- 195.2lbs --------7'0.75 wingspan
They're also only a year apart. I do think Daniels has an "it" factor that Terry doesn't, he's just overall more talented. However, if you miss out on Daniels, Terry would be a great consolation prize. I'm not sure how scouts can have Daniels top 5-10, but Terry in the 2nd round. When you take a look at what they both bring to a team, it's very comparable.
Daniels: 6'6 w/o shoes ------ 195.2lbs ------ 6'10.5 wingspan.
Terry: 6'6 w/o shoes ------- 195.2lbs --------7'0.75 wingspan
They're also only a year apart. I do think Daniels has an "it" factor that Terry doesn't, he's just overall more talented. However, if you miss out on Daniels, Terry would be a great consolation prize. I'm not sure how scouts can have Daniels top 5-10, but Terry in the 2nd round. When you take a look at what they both bring to a team, it's very comparable.
I've been thinking about this a little more, and I think that Keegan Murray is the right pick over Ivey at 4.
I think that we need to be conscious of the fact that we have 2 years, or perhaps 1, to show Sabonis that we are not a complete embarrassment.
We know that Keegan Murray will contribute in some way from day 1, even if it's just shooting.
Ivey will probably be more of a project, and if that fails for whatever reason, I think it may screw the Kings out of keeping Sabonis.
So you will have lost Sabonis and essentially Haliburton for nothing.
Yes it would be great if Ivey is drafted and he pans out but do we have much time for that to happen ?
That and the idea of creating another guard glut is a little concerning to me.
Last year we had Haliburton as the rising player on a cheap contract that could net someone like Sabonis.
Who would that player be this year ?
Would we want to trade Mitchell ? I wouldn't, for culture reasons.
And drafting Ivey I feel automatically lowers Fox's value since now other teams know we have a guard glut.
All things considered I think Keegan Murray is the safer pick and better for the Kings at this stage.
I think all the Kings need to do is be a fringe playoff team this year and I think that should be good enough.
Then once they are at this stage they should be able to pick up some decent piece through free agency, and build their way up.
It's not sexy, but I think it may be the right way.
I think that we need to be conscious of the fact that we have 2 years, or perhaps 1, to show Sabonis that we are not a complete embarrassment.
We know that Keegan Murray will contribute in some way from day 1, even if it's just shooting.
Ivey will probably be more of a project, and if that fails for whatever reason, I think it may screw the Kings out of keeping Sabonis.
So you will have lost Sabonis and essentially Haliburton for nothing.
Yes it would be great if Ivey is drafted and he pans out but do we have much time for that to happen ?
That and the idea of creating another guard glut is a little concerning to me.
Last year we had Haliburton as the rising player on a cheap contract that could net someone like Sabonis.
Who would that player be this year ?
Would we want to trade Mitchell ? I wouldn't, for culture reasons.
And drafting Ivey I feel automatically lowers Fox's value since now other teams know we have a guard glut.
All things considered I think Keegan Murray is the safer pick and better for the Kings at this stage.
I think all the Kings need to do is be a fringe playoff team this year and I think that should be good enough.
Then once they are at this stage they should be able to pick up some decent piece through free agency, and build their way up.
It's not sexy, but I think it may be the right way.
Point guards today are shouldering a heavier offensive load than ever before. For the most part your point guard is now expected to be your main, or second main, scoring threat, to facilitate the offense, and also crash the boards. It’s also a much harder position than ever before to guard because of how offensively skilled point guards are and how fast offensive plays develop. Not saying it’s an excuse to phone it in on defense, but if my point guard is an offensive unit but a bad defender I’m still 100% going to build around them. A point guard that is Luka on offense and Holiday on defense doesn’t exist in the league and is the unicorn of unicorns.
Keegan Murray is 100% the safer pick. No one will argue with you there. He's got more polish than anyone at 4 and has the highest likelihood to contribute right away. He also projects to fit well next to Sabonis.
My reservation is how good does Murray need to be for us to reach the playoffs? I think no matter what it's fair to assume that the Suns, Warriors, Grizzlies, Mavs, Jazz (if they don't blow it up), Nuggets, and Clippers (if healthy) will all 100% be better than us. It's also very likely that the Wolves and Pelicans (especially if Zion comes back) are better than us. That leaves one playoff/play in spot available for the Kings, Lakers, Spurs, and Blazers to compete for. The Spurs are trending upward and it's hard for me to see the Lakers and Lebron missing the playoffs for two straight years.
So if we draft Murray and we aren't in the playoff picture come March-ish, will I have wished we just drafted a guy with higher potential like Ivey or Sharpe? Absolutely. Especially because there is no doubt that if we aren't a playoff team by then there will be loud calls to blow the team up and we'll be discussing what players we want to keep and how we want to move forward with a rebuild.
A pessimistic view for sure, but one that is very possible.
My reservation is how good does Murray need to be for us to reach the playoffs? I think no matter what it's fair to assume that the Suns, Warriors, Grizzlies, Mavs, Jazz (if they don't blow it up), Nuggets, and Clippers (if healthy) will all 100% be better than us. It's also very likely that the Wolves and Pelicans (especially if Zion comes back) are better than us. That leaves one playoff/play in spot available for the Kings, Lakers, Spurs, and Blazers to compete for. The Spurs are trending upward and it's hard for me to see the Lakers and Lebron missing the playoffs for two straight years.
So if we draft Murray and we aren't in the playoff picture come March-ish, will I have wished we just drafted a guy with higher potential like Ivey or Sharpe? Absolutely. Especially because there is no doubt that if we aren't a playoff team by then there will be loud calls to blow the team up and we'll be discussing what players we want to keep and how we want to move forward with a rebuild.
A pessimistic view for sure, but one that is very possible.
Sorry, and I know I'm just arm chairing, but I just really don't see this Daniels thing some of you do. I see nothing special. He interviews well and has size is his best thing.
Maybe you guys that are high on him could link some highlights that shine what it is? I've tried to find stuff.
I sincerely have tried watching vids on him and I see nothing to warrant a high lotto pick. Barely top 10 IMO.
Maybe you guys that are high on him could link some highlights that shine what it is? I've tried to find stuff.
I sincerely have tried watching vids on him and I see nothing to warrant a high lotto pick. Barely top 10 IMO.
Sorry, and I know I'm just arm chairing, but I just really don't see this Daniels thing some of you do. I see nothing special. He interviews well and has size is his best thing.
Maybe you guys that are high on him could link some highlights that shine what it is? I've tried to find stuff.
I sincerely have tried watching vids on him and I see nothing to warrant a high lotto pick. Barely top 10 IMO.
Maybe you guys that are high on him could link some highlights that shine what it is? I've tried to find stuff.
I sincerely have tried watching vids on him and I see nothing to warrant a high lotto pick. Barely top 10 IMO.
Offensively, I think he's an excellent playmaker, although not at the level of Giddey or Melo as a truly elite swing skill. He can collapse a defense and often turns to an effective floater in the lane. The shot has been talked about quite a bit and it wasn't good for a majority of the season. It's his biggest swing skill to becoming a potential star and if you think it develops, he could very easily be the best player in this draft.
It's frustrating because there were 3 players I really liked and 1 is probably going #1 overall and the other two are "not good enough to pick 4th".
If I were Monte I'd be blowing enough smoke to make Detroit or Indy think I was trading down to Portland or below to draft Ivey to see how sweet a package one will offer to move up pre-draft. Failing that just draft BPA whoever it is and see if one of the teams behind us wants to blow us away if there is a guy we like better on the board when they pick. It's key that we don't let anyone know who that player we really like is to extract maximum value if that's the route we go.
I can't listen to much more either because I think the top 4 is the top 4 but so much really hinges on Orlando making the "safe" pick with Jabari despite the fact that most of the people mocking that pick don't have Jabari as #1 on their personal big board.
If I were Monte I'd be blowing enough smoke to make Detroit or Indy think I was trading down to Portland or below to draft Ivey to see how sweet a package one will offer to move up pre-draft. Failing that just draft BPA whoever it is and see if one of the teams behind us wants to blow us away if there is a guy we like better on the board when they pick. It's key that we don't let anyone know who that player we really like is to extract maximum value if that's the route we go.
I can't listen to much more either because I think the top 4 is the top 4 but so much really hinges on Orlando making the "safe" pick with Jabari despite the fact that most of the people mocking that pick don't have Jabari as #1 on their personal big board.
That's about my recollection. There was a little talk of Bouknight, maybe a tiny buzz about Ziaire if everybody came off the board, and I for one was in favor of looking hard at Jalen Johnson. There was a bit of talk about Giddey and Davion, but I don't think either were seen as a good fit by most (of course).
Pretty much. I was also big on kicking the tires on Jalen Johnson, liked Wagner as a safe pick, was not enthusiastic about Moody, was intrigued but nervous about Kuminga, and really liked Sengun. Mitchell wasn't even on my radar and I was really frustrated by the pick when the "core" at that point was clearly Fox & Mitchell.
A good reminder not to overreact on draft night and to remember that for bad teams, BPA is almost always the right answer.
A good reminder not to overreact on draft night and to remember that for bad teams, BPA is almost always the right answer.
I feel the same ways pretty much. Here's my thing, between Murray and Ivey I don't think they can go wrong. However, with Ivey they can certainly go most right if he develops. Plus teams exposed it, they actually consider Ivey pretty much clear BPA with those other 3 up top. I think the help now domino falls next summer when they have space to make a move, fill out the roster, or pick up assets with bad contracts if they need to rebuild. Shoot for a 3rd star in the draft, not win now on a rookie. That's plain stupid. If they want to win now then yeah, trade the pick and watch it potentially Vlade your resume in a few years. Murray is older and has skills but figuring him to be the one to get the team over the hump on day 1 isn't fair to him or any rookie especially when you consider some of his downsides in relation to positional versatility. Sure, a rookie can make an impact but still not wise as a plan.
Particularly when you're in the window of what is considered the "star" portion of the draft. If Ivey were a glaringly bad fit then it might change things, but he's not. Nobody in the top 4 is. Some are obviously better than others, and when Chet/Smith fall to 4 I guess this will all be for not anyway, haha.
Franz Wagner is a good example of a "safe, low ceiling" prospect that might wind up being a really solid player. Put up about as good a rookie year as you could ask for. Gave you average shooting numbers at 15ppg and decent stats across the board. Any rookie that averages 15ppg has the ability to be a 20ppg scorer in the future. Good advanced metrics for a rookie as well.
If we wind up with Murray and he replicates Wagner's rookie year, we should be ecstatic.
If we wind up with Murray and he replicates Wagner's rookie year, we should be ecstatic.
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