KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!

[SacTownKid]

Last time I checked, you have to get into the playoffs in order to win a championship. The Kings org has to have granite resolve to establish this team as a winner. Only then will they have a chance to luck out with a move or two to be a contender for a championship. No chance in hell will they get a FA of any magnitude to come to this team without a 180 in public perception, and without winning a playoff spot such a perception is the impossible dream.

To get stuck in the middle you do as well, and when you get there and get stuck in the middle you start the blow up talks like the Nuggets. Now, their luck stunk, but you can very easily get stuck in the middle if you don't time everything out right. The Kings are in a unique position with an All star big man and a possible All star PG. If they can land a potential star SG on a rookie deal with max space on the way they have many avenues forward asset wise alone. And yes, they want to establish the team as a winner and if Viveks mandate is correct it's not an all at once proposition. It's lets get into the play in slot next season. The Twolves spot. Not to Jazz level, or Suns level, or even Mavs level. I still think that 7-10 position should be doable with what they have in Fox/Sabonis/Barnes and the role guys they have on board already. If they are just outside the window at the deadline and a superstar becomes available then perhaps you change the course of the franchise immediately. If not, you build over the next year and use that space next summer. Or, you even potentially reset around Davion/Ivey at the deadline. BPA hasn't failed Monte yet and this time I think the BPA can actually fit with the other two unlike last draft.

 

[ESP47]

Meh, this feels like diminishing what Murray actually did on the court. Doesn't take into account his team context (the only viable scorer), the statistical dominance, 5.7% TOV rate for his usage is insane and the fact he got better as the season went on vs better competition. He's literally 99%ile player in transition/half-court/post-ups... so like the entire offensive spectrum.

I think where I will agree is the post-ups aren't going to be the same reliable source of production. I do like that's it's now a unique wrinkle in his game that only a few guys in the NBA are capable of now, but it probably only becomes a serious weapon if he hits his ceiling and is a feature offensive threat in the vein of a Siakam/Tatum.

Perhaps where I differ on Murray than a lot of people is I see a significant upside in his player archetype. 6'8 forwards with his physical measurables/IQ/shooting/defensive versatility are few and far between; they're basically never available outside the draft because teams hold on to them for dear life. He'll need to show a few things at the NBA level (off the dribble creation, playmaking, switchability onto NBA 3's) to become a star, but what's important to me is he actually has the ability to get there at the NBA level. The late-bloomer rise, the work ethic, how hard he plays on the court. It's the real deal to me. I just think there's just upside to what he can be and I want to bet on that player archetype more than anything. You mention Crowder, but I'd bet on that being more the floor than the median outcome; which is a 10+ year starter that's incredibly valuable to winning. Certainly not the best outcome with a #4 pick, but we can absolutely do worse.

Conversely, I think everyone is focusing in on Ivey's ceiling rather than focusing on his potential downside. All we hear on Ivey is how his ceiling is sky-high and all the ridiculous player comps. People seemed to have made up their minds (possibly due to highlights and the national draft media saying so) that Ivey is the ceiling/star play while Murray is the fit/floor play.

I know he was an elite scorer but when I watch him play, a lot of his scoring comes from powering through smaller players. Not like point guards or anything, just not quite players with NBA caliber skills or size. I just don't think he's going to find those shots in the NBA. He's kind of similar to Bagley down low. He knows how to find holes in the defense and he dominates in the paint the way Bagley did in college but he basically only has one spin move that he is able to follow up with strange angles when it comes to getting his shot off and scoring. Bagley had one move as well but he wasn't as creative with the angles. I think Murray will get stymied in the paint the same way Bagley did in the NBA...which means he won't be as good of a scorer as he seems he will be. Double that with his slow foot speed and I don't see him even being a Barnes level scorer.

I don't see him being a bust at all though. One of the more "sure thing" picks in the draft and would be an idiot proof pick if Vlade was still around. I kind of have a feeling that he may drop to 8-10 and could potentially still be in play if the Kings traded down. If that Spurs trade went down and we could get Vassell, Murray and say Jalen Williams....that would be one heck of a haul. I just don't know if I see the Spurs trading up since they're usually able to squeeze all the juice out of whatever position they pick at.

 

[Noble]

Spurs have 4 picks. I've read that backup C is a priority, but they want a known commodity right away. Richaun Holmes could be on their radar, and could net us one of the later 1sts. Maybe also take on Zach Collins's contract and health risk as compensation.

For example Holmes for #20 and Collins. Collins has been trying to be more of a stretch 5, just needs to stay healthy for once.

At the same time though, I really don't want to trade Holmes, just trying to see other options besides the PJ Washington trope trade.

 

[Telemachus]

I was comparing arguments and situation. Not players.

When the arguments and situation doesn't match the players, then it doesn't make sense.

What it comes down to when comparing Ivey and Murray is how do you rate them as players. Currently, I have Murray higher on my board. Not because of fit, but because he is better than Ivey in almost every aspect of the game right now. Some think that Ivey has a higher ceiling, but I don't care. Swinging for the fence ends in a strikeout more than a home run. How you weigh potential against current level of play will determine how you rate them. However, the NBA is littered with super athletic players with potential that never lived up to that potential.

 

[Rob-The-Great]

Would you trade Barnes and #4 for Porter and #21?

 

[Hoovtrain]

Would you trade Barnes and #4 for Porter and #21?

michael Porter? Yes

 

[Telemachus]

Would you trade Barnes and #4 for Porter and #21?

No!

 

[The_Jamal]

Would you trade Barnes and #4 for Porter and #21?

Maybe if Porter hadn't come off a season-long injury, but in his current state? no

 

[Rob-The-Great]

Maybe if Porter hadn't come off a season-long injury, but in his current state? no

You wouldn't get him if that was the case tho

 

[Rob-The-Great]

No!

Please elaborate

 

[206Fan]

Would you trade Barnes and #4 for Porter and #21?

I was a giant MPJ advocate for him as our #2 pick before the news about his back/spine came out. We've seen the type of player he can be. Last year he averaged 19ppg 7.3rebs 0.9blks on 54.2/44.5/79.1. I'm 10000% convinced that if he never had any health issues, he'd be a superstar in the league right now. One of the best natural scoring talents.

With everything being said, I wouldn't trade high value for him. His long-term health is extremely questionable. Will he return as the same player? Just a reminder, he's had 3 back surgeries in the last 4-5 years...

It's too risky for the Kings.

 

[Rob-The-Great]

I was also on thr MP train. Honestly wasn't expecting his injuries to run past 2nd season. But I and apparently nuggest still believe in the man. Of there was a slight of doubt by nuggets I'd explore it with a smile

 

[kb02]

Spurs have 4 picks. I've read that backup C is a priority, but they want a known commodity right away. Richaun Holmes could be on their radar, and could net us one of the later 1sts. Maybe also take on Zach Collins's contract and health risk as compensation.

For example Holmes for #20 and Collins. Collins has been trying to be more of a stretch 5, just needs to stay healthy for once.

At the same time though, I really don't want to trade Holmes, just trying to see other options besides the PJ Washington trope trade.

I would do that, but I don’t think Holmes is the kind of big man that they would want. They like those long, skilled grinder types. Holmes is more of the energy, undersized type.

 

[kb02]

Would you trade Barnes and #4 for Porter and #21?

Given the injury history and his new contract, Mpj is probably worth a first round pick in the 20s. I don’t see Denver trading him, because they’ll never get premium value for him.

 

[serbiangoat]

Given the injury history and his new contract, Mpj is probably worth a first round pick in the 20s. I don’t see Denver trading him, because they’ll never get premium value for him.

If Denver has any sense they will move Gordon who is basically a Harrison Barnes type in being overpaid and has little to no impact, unless they know MPJ's back is cooked for good they kind of have to ride or die with him atm.

 

[Kingster]

To get stuck in the middle you do as well, and when you get there and get stuck in the middle you start the blow up talks like the Nuggets. Now, their luck stunk, but you can very easily get stuck in the middle if you don't time everything out right. The Kings are in a unique position with an All star big man and a possible All star PG. If they can land a potential star SG on a rookie deal with max space on the way they have many avenues forward asset wise alone. And yes, they want to establish the team as a winner and if Viveks mandate is correct it's not an all at once proposition. It's lets get into the play in slot next season. The Twolves spot. Not to Jazz level, or Suns level, or even Mavs level. I still think that 7-10 position should be doable with what they have in Fox/Sabonis/Barnes and the role guys they have on board already. If they are just outside the window at the deadline and a superstar becomes available then perhaps you change the course of the franchise immediately. If not, you build over the next year and use that space next summer. Or, you even potentially reset around Davion/Ivey at the deadline. BPA hasn't failed Monte yet and this time I think the BPA can actually fit with the other two unlike last draft.

I think they should get in the 6-8 position with the talent they have already. If you have a wuss ambivalence in your organization about winning your team is going to under-achieve and adopt your wussiness. If you have the opposite, you'll over-achieve. See Miami. Max Strus? Give me a freaking break. Dewayne Dedmon? In the top of the league in charges taken? Another, give me a freaking break. They aren't exactly God's gift to talent over there, but they get it done by commitment, toughness and grit. The subtraction of Hield and Bagley, the addition of Mitchell and Sabonis, were excellent moves to move the Kings in right direction. Let both the winnowing and the additions continue to see a team that over-performs, not under-performs.

 

[EIM86]

I think they should get in the 6-8 position with the talent they have already. If you have a wuss ambivalence in your organization about winning your team is going to under-achieve and adopt your wussiness. If you have the opposite, you'll over-achieve. See Miami. Max Strus? Give me a freaking break. Dewayne Dedmon? In the top of the league in charges taken? Another, give me a freaking break. They aren't exactly God's gift to talent over there, but they get it done by commitment, toughness and grit. The subtraction of Hield and Bagley, the addition of Mitchell and Sabonis, were excellent moves to move the Kings in right direction. Let both the winnowing and the additions continue to see a team that over-performs, not under-performs.

Belief in a franchise that’s never been good under Vivek and comparing it to Miami who’s been good for basically forever isn’t it. Baby steps at best. Let’s get to 20th in defense first

 

[Chupacabra]

I was also on thr MP train. Honestly wasn't expecting his injuries to run past 2nd season. But I and apparently nuggest still believe in the man. Of there was a slight of doubt by nuggets I'd explore it with a smile

Do the Nuggets believe in him? I think they have to if they're paying him $30+ mil/yr for the next 5 or so years. I'd say lots of good things about him too if I were the Nuggets.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Belief in a franchise that’s never been good under Vivek and comparing it to Miami who’s been good for basically forever isn’t it. Baby steps at best. Let’s get to 20th in defense first

Fair, but at some point you just have to let go of the past. Get on with it, **********

 

[EIM86]

Fair, but at some point you just have to let go of the past. Get on with it, **********

I’ll believe when I see it lol.

 

[The_Jamal]

Given the injury history and his new contract, Mpj is probably worth a first round pick in the 20s. I don’t see Denver trading him, because they’ll never get premium value for him.

Yeah he's more valuable to Denver and rebuilding his value rather than trying to extract pennies on the dollar in a trade. They're much better off hoping he comes back healthy.

 

[Jc121]

I would take Ivey at 4 if we keep the pick. Or if we trade up I go for Chet.

 

[Sam0ah]

I would take Ivey at 4 if we keep the pick. Or if we trade up I go for Chet.

I would trade up and take Chet or draft PB at 4. I would also trade down if Ivey was at 4.

 

[SacTownKid]

When the arguments and situation doesn't match the players, then it doesn't make sense.

What it comes down to when comparing Ivey and Murray is how do you rate them as players. Currently, I have Murray higher on my board. Not because of fit, but because he is better than Ivey in almost every aspect of the game right now. Some think that Ivey has a higher ceiling, but I don't care. Swinging for the fence ends in a strikeout more than a home run. How you weigh potential against current level of play will determine how you rate them. However, the NBA is littered with super athletic players with potential that never lived up to that potential.

Yeah it does because the reasoning is similar and that was the conversation was about.

 

[SacTownKid]

I think they should get in the 6-8 position with the talent they have already. If you have a wuss ambivalence in your organization about winning your team is going to under-achieve and adopt your wussiness. If you have the opposite, you'll over-achieve. See Miami. Max Strus? Give me a freaking break. Dewayne Dedmon? In the top of the league in charges taken? Another, give me a freaking break. They aren't exactly God's gift to talent over there, but they get it done by commitment, toughness and grit. The subtraction of Hield and Bagley, the addition of Mitchell and Sabonis, were excellent moves to move the Kings in right direction. Let both the winnowing and the additions continue to see a team that over-performs, not under-performs.

I agree, and I would also hope that the goal isn't to cement themselves as a 6th seed for all their years and gather enough assets/talent to break into the top portion at some point. They will likely have to make more moves to get there eventually. Look at the Kings last time. It was in steps. You had J-Will, Corliss, etc. Little moves like trading for DC, trading for Bibby, then onto signing the needed role players for that roster put them at their prime window. Then bad luck hit them hard. The trades Monte made cleared a lot of clutter. A lot. Mostly at the SG position.

As for Miami, that is a good example and they also got done in by a more talented team in the end. Also, the Kings are in a different spot than most teams. Miami is of the exact build you want to be to survive the smallball landscape of the NBA. They don't have a Sabonis at C. They don't even have a Gobert. They have the best switch big in BBall right now, a ton of playmaking G's and wing depth with the kind of small ball 3 and D switching smallball PF you need in Tucker. That said, they clearly need a talent upgrade somewhere. They gambled on Herro and he's not living up to the hype.

 

[SacTownKid]

Do the Nuggets believe in him? I think they have to if they're paying him $30+ mil/yr for the next 5 or so years. I'd say lots of good things about him too if I were the Nuggets.

Yeah, exactly. And the Nuggets just came out and sounded the sirens on this being last call. If they can't break into that top part of the playoff picture and not get blasted in the playoffs by guard heavy pick and roll teams (which is the problem with Jokic) and can't make up for it talent wise (Murray, MPJ might be enough, maybe not though) then they're done.

 

[SacTownKid]

I would take Ivey at 4 if we keep the pick. Or if we trade up I go for Chet.

Same. And the more I think the more I think if a fully unprotected pick in 2023 or 24 was what it cost to move up, so be it. Davion/Chet on defense is too enticing.

 

[ESP47]

I agree, and I would also hope that the goal isn't to cement themselves as a 6th seed for all their years and gather enough assets/talent to break into the top portion at some point. They will likely have to make more moves to get there eventually. Look at the Kings last time. It was in steps. You had J-Will, Corliss, etc. Little moves like trading for DC, trading for Bibby, then onto signing the needed role players for that roster put them at their prime window. Then bad luck hit them hard. The trades Monte made cleared a lot of clutter. A lot. Mostly at the SG position.

As for Miami, that is a good example and they also got done in by a more talented team in the end. Also, the Kings are in a different spot than most teams. Miami is of the exact build you want to be to survive the smallball landscape of the NBA. They don't have a Sabonis at C. They don't even have a Gobert. They have the best switch big in BBall right now, a ton of playmaking G's and wing depth with the kind of small ball 3 and D switching smallball PF you need in Tucker. That said, they clearly need a talent upgrade somewhere. They gambled on Herro and he's not living up to the hype.

Can't understate Jimmy Butler. He leads any team he's on to the playoffs. Even broke the TWolves postseason drought.

 

[The_Jamal]

Same. And the more I think the more I think if a fully unprotected pick in 2023 or 24 was what it cost to move up, so be it. Davion/Chet on defense is too enticing.

Yeah, I mean talk about near perfect defensive compliments too a Fox/Sabonis offensive core. I know a few people here are worried about Chet and his weight, but if he hits his ceiling? He's got DPOY potential. I don't think any other player comes close to that upside defensively as Chet, even Jabari. Davion absolutely has All defensive team upside as well.

I'd rather give up the 2023 FRP unprotected over the 2024 tbh. We're much likelier to be at or near a playoff squad next season and we 100% know Sabonis/Fox are going to be on the team all year next season. In 2024? who knows things might get weird, can't rule out a big reset at the deadline or potential off-season dealings if extension talks don't go well.

 

[SacTownKid]

Yeah, I mean talk about near perfect defensive compliments too a Fox/Sabonis offensive core. I know a few people here are worried about Chet and his weight, but if he hits his ceiling? He's got DPOY potential. I don't think any other player comes close to that upside defensively as Chet, even Jabari. Davion absolutely has All defensive team upside as well.

I'd rather give up the 2023 FRP unprotected over the 2024 tbh. We're much likelier to be at or near a playoff squad next season and we 100% know Sabonis/Fox are going to be on the team all year next season. In 2024? who knows things might get weird, can't rule out a big reset at the deadline or potential off-season dealings if extension talks don't go well.

Yeah, even a 2023 is scary, but even if it took 24 ideally you can probably get draft capital using Fox and Domas in a worst case. I know people say that all the time and end up with far less than they expect since it's usually a pick that could be far worse come draft time.