[Game] Kings @ Hornets, 12/10/21 4pm Pacific 7pm Eastern

[Woot!]

Fox was 8 for 8 so he was due for a miss. That second miss is a back breaker though. He's going to be thinking about that one for awhile. I still think we lost this game in the first half when we let the Hornets bench crew drop 69 points on us. You have to play some defense to win in the NBA even against bad teams and Charlotte is a pretty good team this year.

He was "due for a miss"? Ummm... it REALLY doesn't work that way. Based on his season FT% he had a 76% chance to hit each.

And, no, they didn't lose the game in the 1st half. They lost the game when DF missed both free throws at the end. If he makes at least one, the Hornets had 2.4 sec to go the length of the court.

 

[kb02]

Fox was 8 for 8 so he was due for a miss. That second miss is a back breaker though. He's going to be thinking about that one for awhile. I still think we lost this game in the first half when we let the Hornets bench crew drop 69 points on us. You have to play some defense to win in the NBA even against bad teams and Charlotte is a pretty good team this year.

This game played out exactly the way it should’ve. No defense, boat race all game, then flip a coin for the winner. When the Kings play a good team, instead of flipping a coin at the end, the Kings will be down by 12.

 

[LoungeLizard]

im going to be so disheartened if there isn’t major changes pretty darn quickly. I have no joy in rooting for this bunch.

Lower those expectations my man. You know nothing major is coming, just your classic trade the old vet for 2nd rounder and cash move. My $ is on TT being that guy this year.

 

[kb02]

What's on Dec 15?

Looks like a few dominoes (Sabonis, Simmons…) are about to fall.

 

[hrdboild]

Man…smh…Bags almost tipped that last miss in.

We put Marvin Bagley and Davion Mitchell in the painted area to secure a rebound or tip we needed to tie or win the game. So that shows you how much our coaching staff cares about winning games. Half our bench is bigs and we couldn't sub one of them in to pull down a rebound? Our problems are top down.

 

[kb02]

im going to be so disheartened if there isn’t major changes pretty darn quickly. I have no joy in rooting for this bunch.

Me too. It’s Monte’s window. He needs to pull the trigger.

 

[mac]

Cody Martin be thanking Fox for saving his butt after he missed a FT and took a dumb foul

 

[SLAB]

Lower those expectations my man. You know nothing major is coming, just your classic trade the old vet for 2nd rounder and cash move. My $ is on TT being that guy this year.

Hope is all I have left!!!

 

[Kingster]

What's on Dec 15?

Trading season is open, baby!

 

[hrdboild]

He was "due for a miss"? Ummm... it REALLY doesn't work that way. Based on his season FT% he had a 76% chance to hit each.

And, no, they didn't lose the game in the 1st half. They lost the game when DF missed both free throws at the end. If he makes at least one, the Hornets had 2.4 sec to go the length of the court.

You expect a 90% free throw shooter to have 9 for 10 or 10 for 10 games from the line. If a 76% shooter makes 8 of 10 you came out ahead. It doesn't matter when in the game those shots were taken. Shots don't count for more points when they're at the end of the game.

 

[kingdivac]

Trading season is open, baby!

Yeah, there could be alot of churn - or not....who knows.

 

[luckytkp]

We put Marvin Bagley and Davion Mitchell in the painted area to secure a rebound or tip we needed to tie or win the game. So that shows you how much our coaching staff cares about winning games. Half our bench is bigs and we couldn't sub one of them in to pull down a rebound? Our problems are top down.

That's actually true, I was surprised we didnt bring TT back in.

 

[Kingster]

Great game by the Kings. Build up those offensive stats, especially Fox’s. December 15th is next week. Good timing.

Total stat-whore game.

 

[mac]

You expect a 90% free throw shooter to have 9 for 10 or 10 for 10 games from the line. If a 76% shooter makes 8 of 10 you came out ahead. It doesn't matter when in the game those shots were taken. Shots don't count for more points when they're at the end of the game.

Well... you're right on average, but statistically speaking it's an independent probability for each shot the shooter takes. If you've flipped a coin 30x and they've all come up heads, it doesn't mean that there is a greater probability for the next toss to come up tails.

 

[EIM86]

Great game by the Kings. Build up those offensive stats, especially Fox’s. December 15th is next week. Good timing.

LOL just stop bro. Simmons/Sabonis never coming to Sac

 

[kb02]

LOL just stop bro. Simmons/Sabonis never coming to Sac

We’ll see.

 

[Woot!]

You expect a 90% free throw shooter to have 9 for 10 or 10 for 10 games from the line. If a 76% shooter makes 8 of 10 you came out ahead. It doesn't matter when in the game those shots were taken. Shots don't count for more points when they're at the end of the game.

It really, REALLY doesn't work like that. Yes, if you're told that DFox is gonna get 10 free throws in a game, on average you expect him to make 7 or 8. But having made the first 8 he doesn't suddenly become super likely to miss one. If he has missed the first 8, he doesn't become especially likely to make the 9th. That's not how odds/percentages play out.

Given what he's shooting, you expect him to make 70-80% every time he steps up, regardless of what's happened before (unless you put stock in guys getting "hot" or crumbling under pressure). All things equal, the odds of him hitting AT LEAST one were high. But... no.

 

[Kingster]

It just gets wierder and wierder with this team. Gentry said there was nothing wrong with Barnes, just a coaching decision to keep him out of the game coming down the stretch???? WTF is up with that? So you'd rather have Bagley than Barnes? Really? What a head scratcher.

 

[Groovygreg]

Fox played a great game but the choke job at the FT stripe with the game on the line is a bit tough to take. You can’t pin the loss on him though; the Kings team defense was terrible.

 

[Woot!]

It just gets wierder and wierder with this team. Gentry said there was nothing wrong with Barnes, just a coaching decision to keep him out of the game coming down the stretch???? WTF is up with that? So you'd rather have Bagley than Barnes? Really? What a head scratcher.

Well, good news on HB. I have no problem w/Bags being in there, if only for some rebounding. Why the H was Buddy - ice-cold for the last many 3's launched and hardly the best ball handler/defender/decisionmaker - in there the last umpteen minutes?

 

[kb02]

Succinct:

https://twitter.com/statuses/1469494574456344580

 

[hrdboild]

Well... you're right on average, but statistically speaking it's an independent probability for each shot the shooter takes. If you've flipped a coin 30x and they've all come up heads, it doesn't mean that there is a greater probability for the next toss to come up tails.

Let me rephrase then. A guy who is shooting 72% for his career from the free throw line on 1510 attempts is on average going to make 7 out of every 10 shots, would you agree with that? He'd already stepped to the line 8 times that game and made all 8. I was saying he was due for a miss because absent all context, he usually only makes 7 out of 10. Sure those sets don't need to be distributed equally. People are going to claim he choked but objectively speaking he was more likely to miss one of them than make both and once you miss the first one and you need the second one or you lose, I feel like that alters the odds considerably because human beings are not inanimate objects.

 

[Kingster]

Well, good news on HB. I have no problem w/Bags being in there, if only for some rebounding. Why the H was Buddy - ice-cold for the last many 3's launched and hardly the best ball handler/defender/decisionmaker - in there the last umpteen minutes?

Apparently, Gentry is going all-in on offense. He's mortgaging every last bit of defense for another point. Very soon this team will be #1 in the NBA in points allowed. Goodbye, baby, to the goal of getting into the top 15 in defense. That's nothing but a bad joke now.

 

[hrdboild]

It really, REALLY doesn't work like that. Yes, if you're told that DFox is gonna get 10 free throws in a game, on average you expect him to make 7 or 8. But having made the first 8 he doesn't suddenly become super likely to miss one. If he has missed the first 8, he doesn't become especially likely to make the 9th. That's not how odds/percentages play out.

Given what he's shooting, you expect him to make 70-80% every time he steps up, regardless of what's happened before (unless you put stock in guys getting "hot" or crumbling under pressure). All things equal, the odds of him hitting AT LEAST one were high. But... no.

Agree to disagree then. I don't think you can apply the same rules of statistics to computers and human beings.

 

[Volblorx8634]

The Hornets intentionally fouled him in the backcourt because they thought they had a foul to give. There was no flop.

I guess I wasn't clear. I meant when defending trying to draw an offensive foul on the last defensive possession.

 

[kb02]

Agree to disagree then. I don't think you can apply the same rules of statistics to computers and human beings.

The area under the curve captures everything.

 

[hrdboild]

I guess I wasn't clear. I meant when defending trying to draw an offensive foul on the last defensive possession.

I'd have to see the play again, but my impression at the time was that it was an offensive foul. It was a loose ball situation after Fox poked it away and Hayward initiated the contact in an attempt to get a foul called on Fox. But this is the NBA where you get to rewrite the rules every game so instead it was just a play on and Fox got back up before Hayward could take the open shot.

 

[SacTownKid]

Tough loss but the Kings appear to be heading a better direction overall. This team goes where Fox takes them, good or bad. Now they have something growing and it's time to start nipping the problems. First, Monte, you HAVE to get your coach a legit wing 3 and D type that weighs more than 190 pounds. Second, PLAY PRESSURE ALL GAME. Or most of it. Trying to help around the basket with players like Mitchell is just plain stupid. The Hornets were a tough matchup because the injuries just makes them that much bigger on the wing but the Kings throwing the big TT/Bagley lineup as a counter might have been what sealed this one. Making up for an inability to spread the floor and switch with offensive rebounding will get you nowhere long term. And the double teams have to stop. If someone is going full Kobe or Jordan on you fine, but don't double because of a size mismatch. Poetically it was also a poor double by Bagley/Buddy that gave the Hornets a wide open look.

 

[Volblorx8634]

I'd have to see the play again, but my impression at the time was that it was an offensive foul. It was a loose ball situation after Fox poked it away and Hayward initiated the contact in an attempt to get a foul called on Fox. But this is the NBA where you get to rewrite the rules every game so instead it was just a play on and Fox got back up before Hayward could take the open shot.

I would have to see it again as well, but Fox definitely has started to exaggerate any sort of contact when playing defense to lure the refs into calling an offensive foul. Exaggerating to the point where he is so out of position that he defense is scrambling. Granted, it seems to work a decent amount of the time, but I just don't agree with that decision on the last defensive stand. Play solid defense and get a stop.

 

[kb02]

Tough loss but the Kings appear to be heading a better direction overall. This team goes where Fox takes them, good or bad. Now they have something growing and it's time to start nipping the problems. First, Monte, you HAVE to get your coach a legit wing 3 and D type that weighs more than 190 pounds. Second, PLAY PRESSURE ALL GAME. Or most of it. Trying to help around the basket with players like Mitchell is just plain stupid. The Hornets were a tough matchup because the injuries just makes them that much bigger on the wing but the Kings throwing the big TT/Bagley lineup as a counter might have been what sealed this one. Making up for an inability to spread the floor and switch with offensive rebounding will get you nowhere long term. And the double teams have to stop. If someone is going full Kobe or Jordan on you fine, but don't double because of a size mismatch. Poetically it was also a poor double by Bagley/Buddy that gave the Hornets a wide open look.

Come on. That ain’t happening in the NBA. It doesn’t happen anymore in D1 hoops. And it is never going to happen with this group of players.