Letting Holmes walk.

[pdxKingsFan]

How do you figure trading Barnes would not have opened up room for Holmes?

and recognize I’m not opposed to saying I don’t want to pay him 20K but if that is the case move him at the trade deadline for assets. Even if the assets are only 2nd round picks and trade exceptions those can still be valuable.

it is the same problem we had with Bogi whose situation was also entirely predictable even after the Mil trade fell apart. It’s like McNair is driving a car looking at the road 5 ft ahead of him.

In your world we re-signed Bogi, who would have a poison pill and couldn't be moved without major headaches, and shipped Barnes, so we'd still not be able to keep Holmes. I'd also rather have Barnes than Bogi and if the money was the same the same with Barnes than Holmes if we are keeping one. There will be other scrappy guys on prove it deals. Especially with big men undervalued in the modern NBA.

I've definitely lowered my opinion of Monte for keeping Walton but you are just absolutely unreasonable over the Bogi deal, which incidentally, DDV for Bogi would have been PERFECT for this team and the identity he appears to be trying to build. A pox on all their houses for killing that deal.

 

[SacTownKid]

Always said we should have traded him.

Bogdan part 2. The question is will the egg that Monte got on his face over that situation, even though not totally his fault, going to cause him to blink on this? Of course assuming Vivek is giving him an open checkbook to begin with. Was keeping their salary down last year in preparation of this years needs or just a floundering ownership being cheap and desperate? If Monte passes because of that it would suck but not paying him even far less than 20 million and averting cementing in their teams future into cap hell if done for the purposes of keeping their options open could be considered smart.

 

[SacTownKid]

Hopefully this is a similar case of wcs overvaluing himself. We can’t and shouldn’t pay anywhere near 20 per year

The difference is Holmes has a legit stance as to why he should be worth that. In a world where pick and roll rules he's one of the best in the NBA according to all the evidence. He's arguably one of the most prolific and dangerous pnr bigs in the league. The issue is while the Kings might be significantly worse without him they sat on Waltons ability to keep this team where it was and can't totally rely on him being someone that makes them better enough to matter. If during that first collapse they had switched over to Gentry to see if a locker room shakeup would have bred more consistency they'd have far more basis for the decisions they make this summer.

 

[Turgenev]

This is what we can offer Holmes (roughly) using early bird. It seem fair and correct. It's just shy of 12MM AAV

View attachment 10552

And I think that is what his value is. 10-11ish. It might be a slight overpay if we end up paying 12-13ish for the final two years, but it's not severe. He might not stay, and in some ways that would be a shame. He's a good player. But he's not some generational guy.

Maybe he leaves and we draft someone like Garuba, who allows us to forget about Holmes after 30 games. Or at least forget about him to the extent Monte's detractors are willing to let us forget.

 

[steelevt]

The difference is Holmes has a legit stance as to why he should be worth that. In a world where pick and roll rules he's one of the best in the NBA according to all the evidence. He's arguably one of the most prolific and dangerous pnr bigs in the league. The issue is while the Kings might be significantly worse without him they sat on Waltons ability to keep this team where it was and can't totally rely on him being someone that makes them better enough to matter. If during that first collapse they had switched over to Gentry to see if a locker room shakeup would have bred more consistency they'd have far more basis for the decisions they make this summer.

He has given us a reason why he deserves a raise but not a $20 mil a year contract. Look at all the centers who make that much and he doesn’t compare. I look at sabonis, turner, capela, JV, nurkic and Lopez in the 13-20 million and don’t see holmes as a better player than them. If he was better offensively they might be better defensively or vice versa. He’s valuable to this team, don’t get me wrong, but there is a max to that value.

 

[SacTownKid]

He has given us a reason why he deserves a raise but not a $20 mil a year contract. Look at all the centers who make that much and he doesn’t compare. I look at sabonis, turner, capela, JV, nurkic and Lopez in the 13-20 million and don’t see holmes as a better player than them. If he was better offensively they might be better defensively or vice versa. He’s valuable to this team, don’t get me wrong, but there is a max to that value.

I agree but his agent is likely going to throw this back at Monte and any other GM looking to do business.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/roll-man/?CF=GP*GE*40:POSS*GE*3&sort=PERCENTILE&dir=1

 

[gunks]

20 million a year for Holmes?!

SMDH

Sucks to bleed talent, but let him walk if somebody will actually pay that much.

McNair didn’t trade him because he wanted to keep him. I don’t think he anticipated an 80 million dollar price tag because that amount is ridiculous.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

We have a ceiling on what we can pay him which is mostly inconsequential to our larger cap picture. It's all about whether multiple teams get in a bidding war or if some jerk team tries to low-ball poach him for a small amount over the max we can offer. In the former case, thanks for your service. In the latter, hopefully he considers us worth a small discount for putting him in that place to begin with.

 

[sactowndog]

In your world we re-signed Bogi, who would have a poison pill and couldn't be moved without major headaches, and shipped Barnes, so we'd still not be able to keep Holmes. I'd also rather have Barnes than Bogi and if the money was the same the same with Barnes than Holmes if we are keeping one. There will be other scrappy guys on prove it deals. Especially with big men undervalued in the modern NBA.

I've definitely lowered my opinion of Monte for keeping Walton but you are just absolutely unreasonable over the Bogi deal, which incidentally, DDV for Bogi would have been PERFECT for this team and the identity he appears to be trying to build. A pox on all their houses for killing that deal.

Well since you are referencing my world let me make some clarifications....

I would decide before free agency the direction I want to go....

If my direction was to make the playoff....
I know I’m going to match Bogi for anything up to 20M. I then roll for the play-offs with much the same team that was 11th last year plus Haliburton playing a 3 guard line-up. In this scenario, I’m not dumping Barnes.

if my goal was to reset...
I know I’m not matching Bogi for anything over 15M and I work the best deal I can even if it is just a second and a trade exception from Atlanta. I work with Richaun to see if I can agree on a deal. If not I get the best deal for him and/or for Barnes by the trade deadline depending on what is out there. In either case I want multiple picks in this draft because I think it’s a good draft. For this year I roll with Metu, Woodard, Jeffries, etc after the trade.

In no case do I re-sign Bogi and trade Barnes. I’m open to criticism but let’s not invent stuff I didn’t say.

 

[dude12]

Keeping Holmes at $20M would bury this team again. We will be stuck at 30-35 wins.

I bet that if we played full season with Damian Jones and another similar defensive oriented guy at Center, also use Bagley at times for the pick n roll to make up the difference with Holmes gone, use Metu in places......I would say that we could equal the amount of victories with Holmes. This team isn’t lacking offense, it’s lacking defense and when Monte brought in the pieces at the trade deadline, we were better.

 

[Turgenev]

Keeping Holmes at $20M would bury this team again. We will be stuck at 30-35 wins.

I bet that if we played full season with Damian Jones and another similar defensive oriented guy at Center, also use Bagley at times for the pick n roll to make up the difference with Holmes gone, use Metu in places......I would say that we could equal the amount of victories with Holmes. This team isn’t lacking offense, it’s lacking defense and when Monte brought in the pieces at the trade deadline, we were better.

If Holmes does leave, it would open up opportunities for others. Playing MBIII as the primary offensive big rather than sitting him in the corner could be a nice now or never test. Also Woodard would have had a year around the team, a training camp and summer league, plus his g league time. This could be a good opportunity for him to come in and show he can play.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If Holmes does leave, it would open up opportunities for others. Playing MBIII as the primary offensive big rather than sitting him in the corner could be a nice now or never test. Also Woodard would have had a year around the team, a training camp and summer league, plus his g league time. This could be a good opportunity for him to come in and show he can play.

I'm cool with offering him the early-Bird because where we're at with the cap it's basically creating some use it or lose it room for future deals. I actually agree with your take above that if we lose him it may open up opportunities for someone to step up. Holmes is a guy with a good work ethic who was hanging around the league and who proved it with this deal. It's always dangerous to pay these guys.

 

[Gguod]

Dont pay huge money to a center unless he is an elite player. Its been true time and time again. Looks like another case of us deciding not to trade a player away at the deadline because we stupidly chase the 8th seed and then we either overpay or lose him for nothing. Small stuff like that is what keeps bad teams bad.

The biggest problem as always is making decisions based on the objective of maybe getting the 8th seed. Thats what keeps a bad team bad. This looks like another bad decision based on that objective

 

[King Baller]

Well since you are referencing my world let me make some clarifications....

I would decide before free agency the direction I want to go....

If my direction was to make the playoff....
I know I’m going to match Bogi for anything up to 20M. I then roll for the play-offs with much the same team that was 11th last year plus Haliburton playing a 3 guard line-up. In this scenario, I’m not dumping Barnes.

if my goal was to reset...
I know I’m not matching Bogi for anything over 15M and I work the best deal I can even if it is just a second and a trade exception from Atlanta. I work with Richaun to see if I can agree on a deal. If not I get the best deal for him and/or for Barnes by the trade deadline depending on what is out there. In either case I want multiple picks in this draft because I think it’s a good draft. For this year I roll with Metu, Woodard, Jeffries, etc after the trade.

In no case do I re-sign Bogi and trade Barnes. I’m open to criticism but let’s not invent stuff I didn’t say.

The deal ATL offered was Tony Snells contract for Bogi and there was a deadline. Would you have done that? No picks were offered.

 

[King Baller]

Holmes was a bench big when he came to Sacto. His ability to switch out on defense is very good. His floater is great. The issue is his size IMO. He does have trouble defending 7 footers in the paint. But posting up bigs is not as common as it once was.

Holmes is going to have trouble landing an 80/4 deal in the current climate IMO. He should grab the biggest offer he gets and I wish him the best no matter where he ends up.

 

[sactowndog]

The deal ATL offered was Tony Snells contract for Bogi and there was a deadline. Would you have done that? No picks were offered.

1) So we are assuming strategically we aren’t shooting for the playoffs and are resetting this year?
2) actually the deal was Snell and Atlanta’s OKC pick which would convert into 2 seconds.

I would have first countered with Huerter and then countered with just the OKC first (which McNair never did). I wouldn’t have needed a deadline as I already decided I wouldn’t match knowing Atlanta has space for a 17M offer. It would be more a discussion of what it was worth to Atlanta to avoid whatever poison pills were in the offer sheet. If Atlanta was unwilling to agree to the OKC first only, I would have matched and tried to move Buddy at the trade deadline.

 

[ESP47]

This noise is coming from Holmes' agent so it's no surprise. I mean I'd like to sell my house for 2x what it's appraised at but that doesn't mean the market will dictate that.

I'd be shocked if he got offered over $12mil a year. I wouldn't go higher than 10 myself. Center is the cheapest and easiest way to upgrade on the market year in and year out.

 

[sactowndog]

Dont pay huge money to a center unless he is an elite player. Its been true time and time again. Looks like another case of us deciding not to trade a player away at the deadline because we stupidly chase the 8th seed and then we either overpay or lose him for nothing. Small stuff like that is what keeps bad teams bad.

The biggest problem as always is making decisions based on the objective of maybe getting the 8th seed. Thats what keeps a bad team bad. This looks like another bad decision based on that objective

I would say the biggest problem is letting these decisions drag out until you lose options.

To move the discussion from McNair, Ainge has done the same thing in Boston letting Rozier, Hayward and Irving all walk for nothing and it has hurt Boston significantly. You just can’t allow yourself to reach that point repeatedly.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I would say the biggest problem is letting these decisions drag out until you lose options.

To move the discussion from McNair, Ainge has done the same thing in Boston letting Rozier, Hayward and Irving all walk for nothing and it has hurt Boston significantly. You just can’t allow yourself to reach that point repeatedly.

OK DUDE.

You screamed bloody murder that we didn't get a TPE for Bogi. You promised to leave the board over it and renounced the Kings over it. Many people explained to you that TPEs are virtually worthless.

Boston got the largest TPE in history for Hayward, but now you are saying that he walked for nothing.

Just saying.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Also we have more 2nd rounders than we know what to do with. For every Isaiah Thomas there are 100 guys that are out of the league in 2 years.

 

[sactowndog]

OK DUDE.

You screamed bloody murder that we didn't get a TPE for Bogi. You promised to leave the board over it and renounced the Kings over it. Many people explained to you that TPEs are virtually worthless.

Boston got the largest TPE in history for Hayward, but now you are saying that he walked for nothing.

Just saying.

yes you are correct Boston got a TPE and Boston used part of the TPE to acquire Fournier. I was trying to keep it simple but Boston went out of their way (giving up a 2nd) to get a TPE. A TPE which the needed to acquire Fournier.

so which of your statements are incorrect ....Boston did let Fournier go for nothing or TPE’s are indeed valuable and Monte F’d up not getting one for Bogi?

Just Saying.....

 

[sactowndog]

Also we have more 2nd rounders than we know what to do with. For every Isaiah Thomas there are 100 guys that are out of the league in 2 years.

We have 1 extra in 2024. Hardly more than we know what to do with.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

We have 1 extra in 2024. Hardly more than we know what to do with.

We can't get the ones we've drafted on the court. Ramsey and Woodard got A+ grades when we picked them by league observers. They're becoming like college players that aren't one and done, so they keep getting recruited over. We need impact players but it would also be nice if we could find some time for these guys and give them a chance to flourish rather than treat them like trading cards.

 

[sactowndog]

We can't get the ones we've drafted on the court. Ramsey and Woodard got A+ grades when we picked them by league observers. They're becoming like college players that aren't one and done, so they keep getting recruited over. We need impact players but it would also be nice if we could find some time for these guys and give them a chance to flourish rather than treat them like trading cards.

2nd round picks do play. Tillman played well and was a key player in helping Memphis beat GS. You know Tillman. The player Monte traded away for Woodard. Brooks and Melton were also 2nd round picks who were role players for Memphis.

Good small market teams who maximize the draft find role players with their 2nd round picks

 

[pdxKingsFan]

2nd round picks do play. Tillman played well and was a key player in helping Memphis beat GS. You know Tillman. The player Monte traded away for Woodard. Brooks and Melton were also 2nd round picks who were role players for Memphis.

Good small market teams who maximize the draft find role players with their 2nd round picks

When you have 2-3 a year, as we did under Vlade's stockpile 2nd rounders strategy, they get pushed out just as fast as they come in.

When you have 1 a year, or maybe sell some, you give them more opportunity to contribute. That's all I'm saying. Most players picked after 35 or so would actually prefer to be undrafted anyways. The second round is all a bit of a game these days.

 

[sactowndog]

When you have 2-3 a year, as we did under Vlade's stockpile 2nd rounders strategy, they get pushed out just as fast as they come in.

When you have 1 a year, or maybe sell some, you give them more opportunity to contribute. That's all I'm saying. Most players picked after 35 or so would actually prefer to be undrafted anyways. The second round is all a bit of a game these days.

as you get later sure but I would still say good small market teams find cheap role players in round 2.

then you have the 2014 draft:
33 Joe Harris
38 Spencer Dinwiddie
39 Jeremi Grant
41 Nikola Jokic
45 Dwight Powell
46 Jordan Clarkson

pretty amazing second round draft. It could be better than some years first round.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Do you know what 5/7 of those players have in common? They spent 2 or less years with the team that drafted them. Clarkson fared slightly better on bad Lakers teams but is now on his third team. Only Joker is with the team that drafted him.

 

[Groovygreg]

2nd round picks do play. Tillman played well and was a key player in helping Memphis beat GS. You know Tillman. The player Monte traded away for Woodard. Brooks and Melton were also 2nd round picks who were role players for Memphis.

Good small market teams who maximize the draft find role players with their 2nd round picks

It’s no secret that the Kings haven’t drafted well for quite some time. It’s also too early to tell if McNair’s strategies with his 2nd round picks will pay off. Give it some time before you essentially proclaim that Monte is using a failed approach.

 

[sactowndog]

It’s no secret that the Kings haven’t drafted well for quite some time. It’s also too early to tell if McNair’s strategies with his 2nd round picks will pay off. Give it some time before you essentially proclaim that Monte is using a failed approach.

Point out where I have said Monte is a poor drafter. I haven’t. My issues with Monte are not committing to a direction and losing Bogi for nothing. He may potentially also lose Holmes for nothing but we don’t know that for sure.

it is way to early to judge Monte’s draft acumen. Tillman was an example of a 2nd round pick being a good role player. Full stop.

 

[sactowndog]

Do you know what 5/7 of those players have in common? They spent 2 or less years with the team that drafted them. Clarkson fared slightly better on bad Lakers teams but is now on his third team. Only Joker is with the team that drafted him.

yes I am aware. But the point good role players can be found in the second round still stands. 2nd round picks are not worthless especially if you are a small market team.