Forecasting Bagley

What is the most likely outcome for Marvin Bagley III?

  • Star Level-he puts it all together. 20 10 3 & 50 40 80 line with passable defense. KAT type

    Votes: 28 29.5%

  • Big Stats-Fills stat sheet, below average D, questionable impact on winning. Andre Drummond

    Votes: 33 34.7%

  • Energy big-decent ppg, rebounds solid overall player worth modest contract. Say Montrezl Harrell

    Votes: 22 23.2%

  • Walking Boot Bagley- always injured, good offensive production no d. Jabari Parker

    Votes: 10 10.5%

  • He gone-Injuries pile up, low impact. out of the league in a couple years. Anthony Bennett

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • Total voters
    95
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#1
#1
Draft is over. 2 big fish reeled in (Whiteside/Frank) :cool:

let's evaluate/guess what we have with some of our guys. Bagley is entering his third year and we need to see what we have with Marv. Is he part of the core? Are you ready to ship him out? What do you think the future holds for the big mc?


This is a tough one for me. I do think if he shakes the injuries he is likely to be able to post 17-21 points a game and 8-10 boards. I actually do have faith in him developing a solid 3pt shot but I am concerned he continues down the black hole path. I think he could eventually be solid but unspectacular on defense. The injuries are very concerning. My best guess is big stats questionable impact on team success.
 
SacTownKid

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#4
#4
It all depends on how he's used and if he stays healthy. If he gets starters minutes this year he's 20 and 10 easy. Now will it equal wins? Eh, we'll see. Again, up to how the team is used and if they can put away the ill will. And the selections are tough because don't many consider KAT to be somewhat of an empty stats guy?
 
S

Sactown ExPat

Starter
#6
#6
SacTownKid said:
It all depends on how he's used and if he stays healthy. If he gets starters minutes this year he's 20 and 10 easy. Now will it equal wins? Eh, we'll see. Again, up to how the team is used and if they can put away the ill will. And the selections are tough because don't many consider KAT to be somewhat of an empty stats guy?
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Yeah, I agree. I think, for us, he either becomes a star-level (near max) power forward this season or gets traded. Because his next two options, as the #2 pick, are high dollar by themselves. If traded, I don’t really know what happens after that. I’d guess big stats on mediocre teams.

I’m still betting he becomes a star. Marvin is just such a supremely talented kid, and I think he does work on the things that impact winning, and not just things that will get him paid.
 
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Reverend

Reverend

Bench
#9
#9
iowamcnabb said:
I think almost all Kings fans are rooting for him. Some aren't sure he will be a difference maker and some are concerned his injuries will prevent him from reaching his potential.
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I’m not sure I think there are some Kings fans that are really that upset we picked him over Doncic that they’d rather be right than be surprised when he is better than expected
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#10
#10
Reverend said:
I’m not sure I think there are some Kings fans that are really that upset we picked him over Doncic that they’d rather be right than be surprised when he is better than expected
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I'm sure there are some. I was super disappointed when he was picked and wasn't getting a great vibe from Team Bagley initially but I have since let it go and look forward to Marvin's growth. He definitely has potential.
 
DesertFox

DesertFox

Starter
#15
#15
He has all the physical tools except maybe a great wingspan to match with any big.
If he stays focused on that 20 10 trajectory, then I don't think that's as special as adding a unique skill.
A 3 point shot, driving game, or play making are essential for a star big now. A post game that isn't dominant is just not enough. For him to be even a valuable hustle.big, he needs to really improve his screening.

But who knew Siakam could drive like he does, or Bam could pass. I don't think anyone predicted ROTY Blake Griffin would be taking 5+ threes and leading his team in assists in 10 years. So Bagley can still go in any direction depending on his health. He seems like one of those hardworking super talents, it depends on what he focuses it on.
 
M

mac

All-Star
#16
#16
Reverend said:
I’m not sure I think there are some Kings fans that are really that upset we picked him over Doncic that they’d rather be right than be surprised when he is better than expected
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Let's be real, at this point there is practically a near zero chance of Bagley being better than Doncic; even if he's healthy and a 20-10 guy we would still have been better off with Doncic. Long story short, there's no reason not to root for Bagley.
 
ParniValjak

ParniValjak

All-Star
#17
#17
He has the potential to be a 20/10 type guy.

The problem we have is he is so injury prone AND he needs to accept and adjust his game to benefit both him and his team.

That means, develop a consistent 3Pt shot and don't be a black hole on offense. Pass the ball, create for your team mates and not only will it be beneficial for the team, it will also make his life easier.
 
jcwkings

jcwkings

All-Star
#18
#18
My scouting report on Bagley:

+ Elite north/south athlete in open court

+ Good touch inside

+ Good motor on offensive glass, elite double jump

+Outside shot isn't broken, needs the reps


- One handed player

- Doesn't know how to set good screens or roll well as a screener

-Low Defensive IQ

-Poor at boxing out for defensive rebounds

-Not very flexible hips, can't guard on perimeter very well

- Tunnel vision on offense, not a good passer or decision maker

-Good touch around the rim but post game is pretty elementary

- Don't know what position he can guard(you are what you can guard)
 
J

Joshoua

All-Star
#19
#19
How in the hell can 11 people vote for 20/10/3 while shooting 50/40/80 and playing decent defense. Absolutely absurd , dude shot 31/69 from 3 and Free throw in his rookie year shot 39/63 at Duke and that 39% from 3 is on 60 attempts. Somehow he’s gonna go to 50/80 in the nba which are elite number comical. Jokic is at 31/81, Porzingis 35/79, and Davis 33/83 anybody thinking Bagley will shoot close to these numbers can’t be taken seriously.

We’ll see how he does 20ppg when defenses are game planning for him. He has no right hand and isn’t physical enough to even punish small ball PF. If he starts getting 20 a game teams will start putting there best post defenders on him and game plan for him
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#20
#20
Joshoua said:
Somehow he’s gonna go to 50/80 in the nba which are elite number comical. Jokic is at 31/81, Porzingis 35/79, and Davis 33/83 anybody thinking Bagley will shoot close to these numbers
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Since he doesn’t have the passing ability of Jokic or the defense of the Brow his best chance of being a high impact big is to become an efficient scorer. He has a long way to go to even sniff those numbers but he’s too young to completely rule it out. If he could even do say 50 35 75 this year I’d be thrilled.
 
Reverend

Reverend

Bench
#22
#22
Joshoua said:
How in the hell can 11 people vote for 20/10/3 while shooting 50/40/80 and playing decent defense. Absolutely absurd , dude shot 31/69 from 3 and Free throw in his rookie year shot 39/63 at Duke and that 39% from 3 is on 60 attempts. Somehow he’s gonna go to 50/80 in the nba which are elite number comical. Jokic is at 31/81, Porzingis 35/79, and Davis 33/83 anybody thinking Bagley will shoot close to these numbers can’t be taken seriously.

We’ll see how he does 20ppg when defenses are game planning for him. He has no right hand and isn’t physical enough to even punish small ball PF. If he starts getting 20 a game teams will start putting there best post defenders on him and game plan for him
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You must be a lot of fun at parties
 
Reverend

Reverend

Bench
#23
#23
jcwkings said:
My scouting report on Bagley:

+ Elite north/south athlete in open court

+ Good touch inside

+ Good motor on offensive glass, elite double jump

+Outside shot isn't broken, needs the reps


- One handed player

- Doesn't know how to set good screens or roll well as a screener

-Low Defensive IQ

-Poor at boxing out for defensive rebounds

-Not very flexible hips, can't guard on perimeter very well

- Tunnel vision on offense, not a good passer or decision maker

-Good touch around the rim but post game is pretty elementary

- Don't know what position he can guard(you are what you can guard)
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I think maybe the most underrated trait he needs to get better at there is screen setting. You absolutely can’t be the solo big man on the floor as much as we need him out there if you can’t set a decent screen or play passable defense, You need one of the two
 
iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#24
#24
Reverend said:
I think maybe the most underrated trait he needs to get better at there is screen setting. You absolutely can’t be the solo big man on the floor as much as we need him out there if you can’t set a decent screen or play passable defense, You need one of the two
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And to dig a bit further, why is he bad at screens? One possible reason is he hasn’t been taught correctly but that seems silly at this stage of his career? Not strong enough? Poor effort/more concerned with getting his?
 
Reverend

Reverend

Bench
#25
#25
iowamcnabb said:
And to dig a bit further, why is he bad at screens? One possible reason is he hasn’t been taught correctly but that seems silly at this stage of his career? Not strong enough? Poor effort/more concerned with getting his?
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I think the last one is most likely in my opinion. From the eye test, I notice Marv rolling way before he even makes contact with the player he’s trying to screen, it almost really does feel like lack of effort/more concerned with rolling to the rim and getting open. Hopefully this is something that can be improved upon with time but we’ll have to see
 
DesertFox

DesertFox

Starter
#26
#26
iowamcnabb said:
And to dig a bit further, why is he bad at screens? One possible reason is he hasn’t been taught correctly but that seems silly at this stage of his career? Not strong enough? Poor effort/more concerned with getting his?
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His pre-draft scouting reports said he avoided contact as both a screener and defender. I'm not sure if I saw fear of contact when he did play with the Kings, but he wasn't very good at being physical. And if he was scared of contact, his recent injury history can't be good.
 
E

ESP47

All-Star
#27
#27
If he comes out defending like he has in the past, he's unplayable at the 5. He can't even defend a simple grade school level pick and roll.

It's going to be extremely difficult to fit him into a lineup. He needs to play along side a good defending, rim protecting 5 who can also spread the floor. There aren't many of those in the league.
 
SacTownKid

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#29
#29
Joshoua said:
How in the hell can 11 people vote for 20/10/3 while shooting 50/40/80 and playing decent defense. Absolutely absurd , dude shot 31/69 from 3 and Free throw in his rookie year shot 39/63 at Duke and that 39% from 3 is on 60 attempts. Somehow he’s gonna go to 50/80 in the nba which are elite number comical. Jokic is at 31/81, Porzingis 35/79, and Davis 33/83 anybody thinking Bagley will shoot close to these numbers can’t be taken seriously.

We’ll see how he does 20ppg when defenses are game planning for him. He has no right hand and isn’t physical enough to even punish small ball PF. If he starts getting 20 a game teams will start putting there best post defenders on him and game plan for him
Click to expand...
It's the Andre Drummond comp that throws it off although I get it was an impact comparison. 40% from 3 for a big man if he's taking .1 attempts is beyond possible haha. His first baby steps in the league put him on a higher level offensive tier as a talent than Andre Drummond.
 
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