Who should get the minutes when the games return?

[jcassio]

Kingsfans is beginning to feel like rolling through a ghost town. Can we get back on track, please, with some talk about the Kings and who should get the minutes when the games return?

Here's the ROSTER:
Marvin Bagley III
Harrison Barnes
Kent Bazemore
Nemanja Bjelica
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Yogi Ferrell
De'Aaron Fox
Harry Giles III
Buddy Hield
Richaun Holmes
Justin James
Cory Joseph
Alex Len
Jabari Parker

2-way contracts:
Kyle Guy
DaQuan Jeffries

I think a strong argument can be made that we should return to where we left off before the shutdown. But where does that leave Marvin Bagley?

And has Richaun Holmes worked himself back into the starting center role? If so, where does that leave Harry Giles and Alex Len, both of whom were playing beyond most Kingsfans' expectations?

Does Jabari Parker have a role? If so, what is it? And who gets a diminished role as a result?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Assuming Bagley is now healthy, Bagley will play, though they might limit his minutes depending on the format (meaning whether games are meaningful or not - in meaningless games Bagley probably gets less time).

Holmes, Giles, and Len probably all see the floor, I'd expect Holmes to get the most minutes of the three.

Based on what we've seen so far, I don't think Parker cracks the rotation.

 

[Jkbiker]

Fox,Cojo
Bogi,Buddy
Barnes,Bazemore
Bagley,Bjelly
Holmes,Len

Bazemore earned his minutes everytime he was on the Floor
Len did too
Until his shoulder injury Holmes was the bright spot of the bigs
We need to get Marvin some minutes

Harry - Only player that maybe needs to be in rotation
but Len was consistent very close between the two

Parker probably still out of shape
Yogi and James - still 3rd string
Guy and Jeffries - still 4th string

 

[Tetsujin]

Thee thing you have to remember is that everyone, and I mean everyone, is not going to be in peak basketball playing shape, meaning we might see an expanded rotation when/if the season resumes.

Before the season got suspended, Harry was starting to sort of hit a wall play wise as the Kings started really seeing success by employing their centers as pure defensive anchors or going small with Bjeli/Skinny Jokic at the 5. But with potential the entire league not in the best physical condition for the modern pace ball game, we might see a slight pivot towards old fashioned post play, which Harry and Marv are better than any non-Harrison Barnes player on the roster at.

 

[jcassio]

These are the guys I will live and die with. The minutes for each are just averages. The actual game minutes per player would depend on injuries, match-ups, who's hot, and who's not.

Fox-32min / Joseph-18min
Bogi-32min / Buddy-32min
Barnes-32min / Bazemore-18min
Bjelica-24min / Bagley-18min
Holmes-24min / Giles or Len-10min

When we really need to limit the opponent's scoring, the minutes for Fox, Joseph, Bazemore, Barnes, Holmes and Len would likely go up.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

Unfortunately it looks like we won't get the chance to see our guys play anymore this season, with the direction of how the voting went today amongst the owners. No play in tourney, no more regular season and straight into the playoffs with traditional 16 team format. Guess we'll be lottery watchers again coming up.

 

[ikon_zero]

Exactly 16 teams said they'd like to go straight into the playoffs with 16 teams... does that surprise anyone?

 

[miltonap]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1266489457798234112

 

[miltonap]

Good chance we'll be in !

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Unfortunately it looks like we won't get the chance to see our guys play anymore this season, with the direction of how the voting went today amongst the owners. No play in tourney, no more regular season and straight into the playoffs with traditional 16 team format. Guess we'll be lottery watchers again coming up.

That was a survey, not a binding vote. And as was just pointed out while I was typing, the majority there was bare minimum of 16-14 - and presumably all votes came from purely interested teams. There might be a pretty loud uproar if the non-playoff teams who are interested in making the playoffs, if that were to happen. I wouldn't count out other options yet. Especially as 25 of 30 teams wanted at least 20 teams involved in "playoffs-plus", and we are tied for 17-19.

 

[Volblorx8634]

Thee thing you have to remember is that everyone, and I mean everyone, is not going to be in peak basketball playing shape, meaning we might see an expanded rotation when/if the season resumes.

Before the season got suspended, Harry was starting to sort of hit a wall play wise as the Kings started really seeing success by employing their centers as pure defensive anchors or going small with Bjeli/Skinny Jokic at the 5. But with potential the entire league not in the best physical condition for the modern pace ball game, we might see a slight pivot towards old fashioned post play, which Harry and Marv are better than any non-Harrison Barnes player on the roster at.

This could really be an advantage for the Kings given that there's so many combinations in lineups that can be put out there. I think Holmes, Bjelica, and Len have definitely earned minutes. Giles was playing well too and provides a skill set with his passing that no other big provides. Bagley is supposed to be the big of the future to pair with Fox. So all 5 have a great case for playing time.

If we are playing to get into the playoffs, I think we limit Bagley's minutes until he shows he can contribute. I know everyone is out of game shape and game rhythm, but Bagley has only played 13 games in the last year. He's likely much more out of rhythm than the rest of the team. Ultimately, I think I agree with jcassio's assessment of giving primary minutes to Holmes and Bjelica, but I think Giles should get the 18 min/game with Bagley or Len at 10. Again, depends on matchups and how everyone is playing, etc. But it's not a bad position to be in to say "I plan on giving Giles 18 minutes, but if Bagley is playing really well, I can play him 18-20 minutes instead of Giles."

 

[SacTownKid]

Things might get a little dicey for Walton and staff now. If this is playoffs it will be interesting to see what they do. This isn't your standard playoffs obviously and in most playoff settings you play the players that are going impact winning and losing. That means you shorten that rotation and players like Giles and Bagley watch on.

 

[SacTownKid]

This could really be an advantage for the Kings given that there's so many combinations in lineups that can be put out there. I think Holmes, Bjelica, and Len have definitely earned minutes. Giles was playing well too and provides a skill set with his passing that no other big provides. Bagley is supposed to be the big of the future to pair with Fox. So all 5 have a great case for playing time.

If we are playing to get into the playoffs, I think we limit Bagley's minutes until he shows he can contribute. I know everyone is out of game shape and game rhythm, but Bagley has only played 13 games in the last year. He's likely much more out of rhythm than the rest of the team. Ultimately, I think I agree with jcassio's assessment of giving primary minutes to Holmes and Bjelica, but I think Giles should get the 18 min/game with Bagley or Len at 10. Again, depends on matchups and how everyone is playing, etc. But it's not a bad position to be in to say "I plan on giving Giles 18 minutes, but if Bagley is playing really well, I can play him 18-20 minutes instead of Giles."

Walton has to look at his 5 man rotation stats. If he wants to actually have a shot that's where it starts and ends. Giles was playing well individually, but the 5 man advanced stats don't lie.

 

[St00]

Marvin Bagley III
Harrison Barnes
Kent Bazemore
Nemanja Bjelica
Bogdan Bogdanovic
De'Aaron Fox
Harry Giles III
Buddy Hield
Richaun Holmes
Cory Joseph

I believe all of these guys get's minutes next season, while they are still in Sacramento. Maybe will be different if this season continues.


Justin James
Alex Len
Jabari Parker
Yogi Ferrell

Len will be in game when needed as a match-up, and Jabari can be really good and get 20 minutes possibly. He was good in Alanta.
We'll see how Justin and Guy develop.. I believe in Guy, and he will get minutes if Hield or Bogdan leave

2-way contracts:
Kyle Guy
DaQuan Jeffries

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

That was a survey, not a binding vote. And as was just pointed out while I was typing, the majority there was bare minimum of 16-14 - and presumably all votes came from purely interested teams. There might be a pretty loud uproar if the non-playoff teams who are interested in making the playoffs, if that were to happen. I wouldn't count out other options yet. Especially as 25 of 30 teams wanted at least 20 teams involved in "playoffs-plus", and we are tied for 17-19.

Of course once ESPN released their morning headline about he non-binding earlier survey, the counter headline is posted early in the afternoon about the majority wanting regular season and a play in tourney...which is more a believable scenario, due to wanting to recoup major revenues lost during COVID.

 

[sactowndog]

To your point on 5 man advance stats.... Looked at the stats and calculated the Average Net Rating for when the player was on the floor with with the current roster (rosters with Ariza and Dedmon deleted)

Here's the ROSTER: / Average Net Rating / Top 10 Line-ups over Bottom 10 line ups
Marvin Bagley III / -24.6 / 0/3 (not calculated)
Harrison Barnes / 2.216 / .86
Kent Bazemore / 10.9466 / 1.50
Nemanja Bjelica / -.0409 / .83
Bogdan Bogdanovic / -.76 / .71
Yogi Ferrell / 31.15 / 2/0 (not calculated)
De'Aaron Fox / -1.8578 / .67
Harry Giles III / -8.61 / .25
Buddy Hield / 2.2814 / 1.13
Richaun Holmes / -12.45 / 3
Justin James
Cory Joseph / 4.422 / 1.20
Alex Len / 7.78 / 2.0
Jabari Parker


List with line-up of 10 minutes or more......

 

[sactowndog]

Top 5 5 man line-ups with at least 25 mins (ranked 1-5)
H. Barnes, .B. Bogdanovic, .R. Holmes, .B. Hield, .Y. Ferrell.
N. Bjelica, .C. Joseph, .K. Bazemore, .A. Len, .B. Hield.
H. Barnes, .B. Bogdanovic, .R. Holmes, .B. Hield, .D. Fox.
C. Joseph, .H. Barnes, .B. Bogdanovic, .R. Holmes, .B. Hield.
N. Bjelica, .H. Barnes, .B. Hield, .D. Fox, .H. Giles III

Bottom 5 5 man line-ups with at least 25 mins ( ranked 9-14)
.H. Barnes, .K. Bazemore, .B. Bogdanovic, .D. Fox, .H. Giles III.
C. Joseph, .H. Barnes, .K. Bazemore, .A. Len, .B. Hield.
N. Bjelica, .H. Barnes, .B. Hield, .D. Fox, .M. Bagley III.
N. Bjelica, .C. Joseph, .B. Bogdanovic, .R. Holmes, .B. Hield.
N. Bjelica, .H. Barnes, .B. Bogdanovic, .D. Fox, .H. Giles III

 

[sactowndog]

Looking at the data it’s hard to make a case Bagley should get any minutes. Vlade’s pride will prevent it but fitting him in and his atrocious defense makes it hard to play him....

I think more line-ups with Barnes at 4 and Bazemore at 3 will be tried.

Beli and Bogi together on the floor does not seem to bring success oddly enough. Both are better with more athletic defenders.

Buddy is in all top 5 which speaks to his strength coming off the bench as instant offense.

Fox has to improve and play the defense he played at the end of the year.

 

[Sluggah]

While there might be a business reason to play Bagley in whatever little remains of the season, I’m not sure there’s a basketball reason. Do we even know he’s healthy? Did he ever really get into a flow with the team this season? It feels like forever ago and I honestly don’t remember. Totally fine running with the squad that got us within striking distance until next season.

 

[Joshoua]

We’re playing for a playoff spot anybody thinking Bagley will get a lot of minuets is delusional

 

[SacTownKid]

Looking at the data it’s hard to make a case Bagley should get any minutes. Vlade’s pride will prevent it but fitting him in and his atrocious defense makes it hard to play him....

I think more line-ups with Barnes at 4 and Bazemore at 3 will be tried.

Beli and Bogi together on the floor does not seem to bring success oddly enough. Both are better with more athletic defenders.

Buddy is in all top 5 which speaks to his strength coming off the bench as instant offense.

Fox has to improve and play the defense he played at the end of the year.

The teams best lineups with more of the fairer qualifiers this year have been mostly small lineups. Even when Ariza was here. Baze has been huge since coming in though. I guess it depends on whether or not they look at this as a chance to give experience to the young guys or not. I really don't know what kind of experience this type of format will bring though. Again, the team is in a tough spot. The roster is too stacked with bigs and the highest upside product on the roster in Bagley hasn't even had a real chance to find his way yet. If he could shoot realiably it would be different maybe but his shot is still a work in progress. He has tools defensively so it's not going to be an eternal struggle, but asking a young big, any young big, to play NBA defense in a playoff setting is not realistic even if it's technically possible with his physical gifts.

As for Buddy it also says this team is flat out better with him on the floor. That 22-25 mpg stuff that was starting to rear it's ugly head is a great way to get a coach run out when someone starts explaining those stats to the boss who also has an affinity for said player.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

We’re playing for a playoff spot anybody thinking Bagley will get a lot of minuets is delusional

Says the guy who has been a detractor of Bagley at every step from day one. Look, it's either Bagley or nothing. Either you're wrong, and Bagley is is a player with the ability to be transcendent (and we have a chance of winning some playoff games), or you're right and we're screwed (and we don't). Either way, relying on Bagley is the right play. It's not like Jabari Parker is bringing us to the promised land.

 

[sactowndog]

Says the guy who has been a detractor of Bagley at every step from day one. Look, it's either Bagley or nothing. Either you're wrong, and Bagley is is a player with the ability to be transcendent (and we have a chance of winning some playoff games), or you're right and we're screwed (and we don't). Either way, relying on Bagley is the right play. It's not like Jabari Parker is bringing us to the promised land.

your point could be true and we still limit his minutes in this playoff scenario. Next year is another year and perhaps the young man will figure out athletic ability isn’t enough. But for this playoff run he did nothing positive to put us in this spot and playing him any major minutes will hurt this teams success.

 

[Volblorx8634]

I think it all comes down to the team's goal. Is the goal to make the playoffs? Then you limit Bagley's minutes until he proves he can contribute. Is the goal to give him NBA reps and develop him? Then you play him starter's minutes.

As a playoffs starved fan, I would vote to make the playoffs. It's not like we'd be in good lottery position if we don't and this year's class is weak as it is.

 

[kb02]

Bagley needs the minutes the most.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

Says the guy who has been a detractor of Bagley at every step from day one. Look, it's either Bagley or nothing. Either you're wrong, and Bagley is is a player with the ability to be transcendent (and we have a chance of winning some playoff games), or you're right and we're screwed (and we don't). Either way, relying on Bagley is the right play. It's not like Jabari Parker is bringing us to the promised land.

Marvin Bagley will play as much as Marvin Bagley produces. If he's a helping catalyst, his minutes and role will be multiplied, rightfully so.

 

[Iced Espresso]

I have no desire to see charity or developmental minutes.

Hopefully Walton uses whatever he thinks gives us the best shot at winning. If we get eliminated during the 8 games but still have to play, then whatever.

 

[Turgenev]

Several interesting lines to follow re rotation minutes. E.g. Giles was making a good contribution at the 5 while the team was putting up some wins. If he loses his spot in the rotation, does that impact his interest in staying? Same re Len? How much of a leash will Buddy be given while we scrape for a playoff spot, and, if short, does this increase the chances he gets shipped soon? What does Luke do to define himself during this stretch? Also how many fans waiting by the key board to highlight, again, how much they dislike MBIII, even before a minute has been played?