The Harry Giles option conundrum
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it shouldn’t matter at all. It’s clear this team is devoid of the talent it needs to be competitive in this league. The guys who are seeing time ahead of him aren’t leading us to wins, let alone the playoffs. It’s not working and there is nothing that shows us it will going forward. Like I said, I’d argue Giles has the highest ceiling on this team based on the sample size. Play him as much as you can. This team is a few games away from a full blown mutiny. Even our media guys like Koz, Doug, and Carmichael Dave are voicing their frustrations openly and often. Give us something that can give us optimism.
Is there any chance a pro-Giles strategy has led us to where we are now with Harry? Because otherwise we are left to assume that either the Kings FO lost confidence in Harry, or they know something about Harry that they've not disclosed. The only pro-Giles strategy I can imagine is one in which they concluded that they wouldn't be able to keep all the core together, plus Harry. So by creating a disappointing season for Harry, maybe they thought they could then sign him on the cheap for a few years. Better than losing him to another team, perhaps. But still doesn't seem like the most likely path for the FO to have taken.
But then the other scenarios don't seem that plausable, either. Could the FO have lost confidence in Harry? After all the hype? After watching him show great signs in his rookie year? Maybe they didn't like that he didn't bounce back quickly enough from that injury that ended his season prematurely? Or maybe it was a lack of disipline over the summer in terms of supervised workouts and not being prepared for the summer leagues. Hard to imagine that a player who used to smoke cigarettes and avoided the weight room like the plague (Vlade) would be that punitive with a talented/high-upside player like Harry.
Now that we've seen Harry get some playing time this year, it seems even less likely that any qualified medical personnel would have decided that Harry's knee was never going to allow him to reach his potential. There are a half dozen Kings players who present greater physical risks than Harry.
So I'm back to wondering if the FO may have been trying to get Harry on the cheap by slyly manufacturing a disappointing 2nd season?
But then the other scenarios don't seem that plausable, either. Could the FO have lost confidence in Harry? After all the hype? After watching him show great signs in his rookie year? Maybe they didn't like that he didn't bounce back quickly enough from that injury that ended his season prematurely? Or maybe it was a lack of disipline over the summer in terms of supervised workouts and not being prepared for the summer leagues. Hard to imagine that a player who used to smoke cigarettes and avoided the weight room like the plague (Vlade) would be that punitive with a talented/high-upside player like Harry.
Now that we've seen Harry get some playing time this year, it seems even less likely that any qualified medical personnel would have decided that Harry's knee was never going to allow him to reach his potential. There are a half dozen Kings players who present greater physical risks than Harry.
So I'm back to wondering if the FO may have been trying to get Harry on the cheap by slyly manufacturing a disappointing 2nd season?
I really don’t think there’s any third level thinking on this by management. For whatever reason they decided they wanted to see if he’s worth the max salary they are allowed to pay him next year and I guess betting nobody else will offer something better or that he would take less to leave. The thing is they may ultimately be proven right in this strategy if Harry is out of the league in a couple years; however that’s missing the point that they have seemingly failed to develop his game significantly in the last two years. Right now I think they are living off the impressive rehab and patience they gave him in year 1, thinking that gives them goodwill with Harry and the fans with respect to their handling of him. But that only goes so far and the trainer ultimately responsible was fired (semantics aside). I’ve seen a lot of love by Harry on social media for the sac fans and Pete Youngman, but I personally don’t get those vibes regarding anything else Kings.
I believe this is correct. Making the QO was such a no-brainer the only conclusion I can derive is they forgot to submit the paperwork. I just cannot believe such a bush league decision would be made. Even if you don't want to keep him, you have the choice with his rights and could deal him for picks.
This is not correct. Bird rights are based on how long a player has been with a team without changing teams in free agency. They actually carry across trades, the only thing that resets Bird rights is signing a free agent contract with a team other than the team you were on most recently. Bird rights accrue in three years (Early Bird in two) and allow the team to exceed the salary cap to sign the player as a free agent. With full Bird rights, the team is allowed to sign a player to a 5-year deal at that player's maximum salary, regardless of the team's cap situation.
Giles has not (yet) changed teams in free agency, and so whatever team he is on at the end of the year (us, or a team we trade him to) will have his full Bird rights.
HOWEVER, because his fourth-year option was declined, we (or any team Giles is traded to this year) are not allowed to sign him for next year for more than the value of the option year (which was about $4M) regardless of the fact that we hold his Bird rights. If Giles does sign a one-year, $4M contract with us this offseason, then we would be able to offer him any contract up to his max in the summer of 2021 without regard to our salary cap.
This is more on point. Giles' max contract this offseason will be somewhere in the high $20Ms. But obviously nobody will offer him that. I don't know how much cap space teams are looking to have next year, but most likely the best offer he can hope for is in the range of the MLE, which will be about $10M or so. Assuming that we want him back, Giles will be back if
1) Nobody offers him more than $4M
2) He gets offered more than $4M but prefers to stay (perhaps to keep his established Bird rights which would allow a much bigger contract from the Kings in the summer of 2021)
3) Something weird is going on under the table
The Giles situation this year has been, frankly, bizarre, and I can't begin to understand it. It seems there is a lot that went on behind closed doors and we don't know what that is, and whether it is bad for our chances to re-sign Giles, or perhaps not so bad for those chances. What we do know is that we can't offer him as much money as the other 29 teams in the league, if they want to. The rest is obscure.
Giles has not (yet) changed teams in free agency, and so whatever team he is on at the end of the year (us, or a team we trade him to) will have his full Bird rights.
HOWEVER, because his fourth-year option was declined, we (or any team Giles is traded to this year) are not allowed to sign him for next year for more than the value of the option year (which was about $4M) regardless of the fact that we hold his Bird rights. If Giles does sign a one-year, $4M contract with us this offseason, then we would be able to offer him any contract up to his max in the summer of 2021 without regard to our salary cap.
This is more on point. Giles' max contract this offseason will be somewhere in the high $20Ms. But obviously nobody will offer him that. I don't know how much cap space teams are looking to have next year, but most likely the best offer he can hope for is in the range of the MLE, which will be about $10M or so. Assuming that we want him back, Giles will be back if
1) Nobody offers him more than $4M
2) He gets offered more than $4M but prefers to stay (perhaps to keep his established Bird rights which would allow a much bigger contract from the Kings in the summer of 2021)
3) Something weird is going on under the table
The Giles situation this year has been, frankly, bizarre, and I can't begin to understand it. It seems there is a lot that went on behind closed doors and we don't know what that is, and whether it is bad for our chances to re-sign Giles, or perhaps not so bad for those chances. What we do know is that we can't offer him as much money as the other 29 teams in the league, if they want to. The rest is obscure.
Correct.
We can only offer Bogi and extension on his current contract now. Once he becomes a RA free agent we can offer more and match any offers.
Giles we can only offer the $4 mil for next year. Any team can offer whatever they are allowed under their cap. He doesn't have to take the highest offer. He gets to pick which team contract to play for.
We can only offer Bogi and extension on his current contract now. Once he becomes a RA free agent we can offer more and match any offers.
Giles we can only offer the $4 mil for next year. Any team can offer whatever they are allowed under their cap. He doesn't have to take the highest offer. He gets to pick which team contract to play for.
I can only speak for myself, but my concern is that the team is not showing interest in re-signing not necessarily a price issue. I would be much happier if the team made a stronger commitment in terms of an offer. I understand we do not know what's being said to Harrry and his agent but my fears will just let him walk. I have seen almost nothing on court to indicate that Harry will not be a solid player in this league perhaps even a damn good starter and I would hate to see him disappear much like Gerald Wallace did.
Too early to say. I think a lot will hinge on how he plays to finish out the season. It's not that often that a 22-year-old kid who was considered a possible #1 overall pick just four years prior comes available for probably the MLE while apparently both being healthy and still having the skills that made him a great prospect. Clearly a bit of the shine has come off, and for all of the good stuff he has flashed, he's not consistent and his numbers aren't really that hot. I guess we'll see, but I'd lean to saying that somebody will offer him more than we can.
Yeah I guess the good news is because the market this off-season is fairly barren in terms of teams with projected cap space (think like... 7??) and I seriously doubt any of those teams are going be calling day 1 of FA. Could probably rule out most contenders using their MLE on him too; not the right player they use that option for.
My guess is Harry will have to weigh like a 2/12 type of deal with an option vs staying with us and keeping his bird rights active for 1/4.
My guess is Harry will have to weigh like a 2/12 type of deal with an option vs staying with us and keeping his bird rights active for 1/4.
Makes a lot of sense. I'd say WCS is probably the best comp as far as contract goes. Can't compare him to Cuz because of the injuries. Holmes....I bet you a whole bunch of teams are kicking themselves for not signing him. He would easily command double his salary if teams knew he was going to play like this as a starter.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with Giles. I think it'll be a Holmes like situation where if a team is going to sign him for lets say $5M...it'll be near the end of free agency when they've just got a few dollars left to throw at the wall and see what sticks. Right now, Giles' production is not worth that but it could be by the end of the season if he progresses. Although that'll take him getting consistent minutes which seems like a total crapshoot with the way things have been managed.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with Giles. I think it'll be a Holmes like situation where if a team is going to sign him for lets say $5M...it'll be near the end of free agency when they've just got a few dollars left to throw at the wall and see what sticks. Right now, Giles' production is not worth that but it could be by the end of the season if he progresses. Although that'll take him getting consistent minutes which seems like a total crapshoot with the way things have been managed.
Yes, he will be unrestricted, so if he WANTS out, he's gone. But I haven't seen anything - even with the whole saga at the beginning of the season and the playing time question marks now - that suggests he wants to leave. Perhaps he does want out, but he also does seem to genuinely like his teammates. We're all in the dark here on what Giles wants until something happens, really.
The biggest knock on Harry is his fouling rate. He can be a fouling machine at times. But if the logic is to NOT give him more minutes because of the fouling, look at the stats on a month by month basis, along with the avg minutes played:
Fouls/36 Min Avg Min/Gm
9.1 November 7.4
6.4 December 16.9
6.8 January 12.9
7.2 All Games 11.4
Last night against OKC, for example, Harry played 17 min and only picked up one foul.
What all this tells me is that giving Harry more minutes helps him (work to) improve his fouling rate. It is true that Harry has a long way to go in improving his fouling rate, and it will take more than increased playing time to get there. But giving him more minutes is a start.
Fouls/36 Min Avg Min/Gm
9.1 November 7.4
6.4 December 16.9
6.8 January 12.9
7.2 All Games 11.4
Last night against OKC, for example, Harry played 17 min and only picked up one foul.
What all this tells me is that giving Harry more minutes helps him (work to) improve his fouling rate. It is true that Harry has a long way to go in improving his fouling rate, and it will take more than increased playing time to get there. But giving him more minutes is a start.