NFL SuperBowl LIV - 2/2/2020
- Thread starter VF21
- Start date
4-0 this week! Had a feeling the Titans would upset the Ravens. And it wasn’t just “I hope they lose, so I’ll vote against them!” I actually felt it coming! I’m proud of myself for that one! 
—
Chiefs roll easily, but I’m begging for the Titans to pull it off. I want nothing to do with Mahomes.
Niners over Packers.
—
Chiefs roll easily, but I’m begging for the Titans to pull it off. I want nothing to do with Mahomes.
Niners over Packers.
Would have been 2-2 had I got my picks in on time though I think I had a solid read on both of the games today that I missed on (Seattle definitely wins if the game had another quarter). I'm picking Titans and Niners. Throw out the 2-4 start under Mariota and the Titans are 11-3 (including playoffs) since making the switch including a win over the Chiefs.
Also I think this weekend is the prologue for a lot of interesting stories next season including Marcus Mariota's reclamation project (assuming someone is going to bite); where do the Ravens and Seahawks go next; and LOL Browns. I will assume the latter is going to also include Odell Beckham Jr. making a trade demand this week.
The NFL wants a SF vs KC Superbowl, but I have a feeling it's going to be the Niners vs the Titans. Will run some numbers this afternoon to see how far off I am.
Titans beat the Chiefs this year and are good in the areas that are necessary to be the chiefs--they can run the ball and control the clock; they can stop the run and have above average pass rushing with Watts back.
The Niners crushed the Packers in the first game. I think the Packers will watch the Saints and Falcons film. Apply quick passes, roll Rogers out, and try to beat the Niners with their Tight Ends (the Niners have improved significantly in covering tight ends since the Sea game). On defense, they'll have their DL and LBs play straight up rather than to follow the Niners stunts and shades. That said, Niners should win. Thinking of putting a -6.5 play on the Niners.
Titans beat the Chiefs this year and are good in the areas that are necessary to be the chiefs--they can run the ball and control the clock; they can stop the run and have above average pass rushing with Watts back.
The Niners crushed the Packers in the first game. I think the Packers will watch the Saints and Falcons film. Apply quick passes, roll Rogers out, and try to beat the Niners with their Tight Ends (the Niners have improved significantly in covering tight ends since the Sea game). On defense, they'll have their DL and LBs play straight up rather than to follow the Niners stunts and shades. That said, Niners should win. Thinking of putting a -6.5 play on the Niners.
Bosa, Deebo, Skule, Greenlaw... That was a hell of a draft last year! Wish has been up and down but punters/kickers routinely play into their 40s so we'll give him time to get locked in before judging him too harshly. And third round pick Jalen Hurd hasn't even had a chance to play yet so the draft could get even better. Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford both came with some questions in Free Agency but they more than answered them once the season started. Health is the only thing keeping those pickups from being homeruns but they're both on the field contributing in the playoffs. Well deserved win for John Lynch. Watching this team come together, establish an identity, and dominate almost overnight has been an incredible ride.
GB vs. Niners Game:
1. My numbers project a 25.8 to a 19.6 score. With the Niners winning by 6.18 points. The line is 7.5. When crediting 3 points to the home team (generally the case) plus the past game, the spread increases to 9.18 points. The 7.5 spread, obviously, falls nicely between the two end points.
2. This game will be decided by the run game. Green Bay has the 16th best passing offense vs the Niners #1 passing defense. The Niners have the 3rd best running offense vs. Green Bay's 23rd ranked running defense. These two matchup are the widest differences. GB's going to have to run the ball, because they're not going to be able to throw it much. And Green Bay's going to have to find a way to stop the run.
3. GB generally is 58/42 pass to run. The Niners are generally 48/52 pass to run. GB's going to have to bring that pass ratio down to 50/50 or 45/55 in order to keep the niners pass rushers off the field (mainly Dee Ford, who is mostly a specialist) and for the Niners LBs to respect the play action.
4. The over/under is 46.5, which represents a 2.4% premium from the predicted total (see #1) of 45.4. With the 3 point credit, it is -4.1% less than the adjusted total of 48.4.
My prediction: Niners win. I think they'll beat the Pack by a touchdown (likely more), so if I were playing, I would buy the spread down to 6.5 in order to account for backdoor covers, Rodgers hero ball, or something crazy happening. The safer bet, barring crazy turnovers, is the under at 46.5. Mostly because I believe the Pack will need to run the ball more than usual to win.
1. My numbers project a 25.8 to a 19.6 score. With the Niners winning by 6.18 points. The line is 7.5. When crediting 3 points to the home team (generally the case) plus the past game, the spread increases to 9.18 points. The 7.5 spread, obviously, falls nicely between the two end points.
2. This game will be decided by the run game. Green Bay has the 16th best passing offense vs the Niners #1 passing defense. The Niners have the 3rd best running offense vs. Green Bay's 23rd ranked running defense. These two matchup are the widest differences. GB's going to have to run the ball, because they're not going to be able to throw it much. And Green Bay's going to have to find a way to stop the run.
3. GB generally is 58/42 pass to run. The Niners are generally 48/52 pass to run. GB's going to have to bring that pass ratio down to 50/50 or 45/55 in order to keep the niners pass rushers off the field (mainly Dee Ford, who is mostly a specialist) and for the Niners LBs to respect the play action.
4. The over/under is 46.5, which represents a 2.4% premium from the predicted total (see #1) of 45.4. With the 3 point credit, it is -4.1% less than the adjusted total of 48.4.
My prediction: Niners win. I think they'll beat the Pack by a touchdown (likely more), so if I were playing, I would buy the spread down to 6.5 in order to account for backdoor covers, Rodgers hero ball, or something crazy happening. The safer bet, barring crazy turnovers, is the under at 46.5. Mostly because I believe the Pack will need to run the ball more than usual to win.
