Been buried, so here's a fast food version of tonight's game.
My models predict a final score of 115.3 to 109.5. With Portland winning by 5.85 points. These stats are with De'Aaron Fox, so depending on how you rank CoJo relative to Fox, the final margin will likely be bigger. I see Cojo as a net negative, but, as it relates to this game, I see the totals for each team going lower--with a final score of 110 to 100 in Portland's favor. This is so because Cojo will slow the Kings pace while bringing a slight positive on defense.
The relevant stats follow:
1. The Blazers are actually a worse assisting team than the Kings. With a 17% difference between the two teams. Portland coming in at -27% relative to the league average and the Kings coming at -10%. Get ready for lots of ISO ball from Portland and the Kings. Although the Kings have improved recently and will need to play above league average to win without Fox.
2. The Blazers have a 16% defensive rebounding advantage. Portland checks in at 3% above league average while the Kings are at -13%. Unlike past games, however, the Kings do not trade off their defensive boarding deficiencies with an offensive boarding advantage. So this means Portland is simply the better rebounding team.
3. Kings shoot more threes and hit threes at about the same rate as the Blazers.
4. The Blazers have an advantage on defense in a number of categories. Consistently 5 to 10% better.
Bonus: Anfernee Simons looks like a steal for the Blazers. Will be fun to see him play. They're molding him into a 19 year old version of CJ/Lillard.
Ultimately, no Fox, no Bagley, and stats that say the Blazers win easily. Yet, the line is only -2 in favor of the Blazers. I'm not playing tonight, but if I did, I would take the Blazers ML. Looks like an easy win for them. Hope I'm wrong.
My models predict a final score of 115.3 to 109.5. With Portland winning by 5.85 points. These stats are with De'Aaron Fox, so depending on how you rank CoJo relative to Fox, the final margin will likely be bigger. I see Cojo as a net negative, but, as it relates to this game, I see the totals for each team going lower--with a final score of 110 to 100 in Portland's favor. This is so because Cojo will slow the Kings pace while bringing a slight positive on defense.
The relevant stats follow:
1. The Blazers are actually a worse assisting team than the Kings. With a 17% difference between the two teams. Portland coming in at -27% relative to the league average and the Kings coming at -10%. Get ready for lots of ISO ball from Portland and the Kings. Although the Kings have improved recently and will need to play above league average to win without Fox.
2. The Blazers have a 16% defensive rebounding advantage. Portland checks in at 3% above league average while the Kings are at -13%. Unlike past games, however, the Kings do not trade off their defensive boarding deficiencies with an offensive boarding advantage. So this means Portland is simply the better rebounding team.
3. Kings shoot more threes and hit threes at about the same rate as the Blazers.
4. The Blazers have an advantage on defense in a number of categories. Consistently 5 to 10% better.
Bonus: Anfernee Simons looks like a steal for the Blazers. Will be fun to see him play. They're molding him into a 19 year old version of CJ/Lillard.
Ultimately, no Fox, no Bagley, and stats that say the Blazers win easily. Yet, the line is only -2 in favor of the Blazers. I'm not playing tonight, but if I did, I would take the Blazers ML. Looks like an easy win for them. Hope I'm wrong.
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