Analytics and the Kings

[sactowndog]

The Kings are projected to do poorly next year. I think a lot of the problem had to do with sample size issues with our players.

For example:
If you take Fox’s 3 point shooting percentage from last year he looks pretty good. But if you average Fox with the previous year, he by the numbers would be a below average shooter.

You have the same problem with Bogi in reverse. Bogi’s percentages were good year 1 and pretty poor year 2.

Bagley improved from beginning to end. Is he a 14 point per game player or 19 point per game player.

I think the second problem is analytics will model guys after other players. But even this approach breaks down given Joeger’s approach to limiting rookies their first year. It’s impossible to separate out year 1 to year 2 growth versus Joeger loosening the reigns.

 

[Section 101]

Like the stock market, past performance doesn't guarantee future performance.

 

[Iced Espresso]

They are going to find out how wrong they are.

 

[Gary]

If Bagley is as good as we think he is, and if Barnes can improve his chemistry with the team I do not see any reason why we can't be a playoff team. We have the player for player talent and 1 on 1 I would compare our team with any other in the league. As long as the chemistry improves I foresee playoffs.

 

[Kingster]

The Kings are projected to do poorly next year. I think a lot of the problem had to do with sample size issues with our players.

For example:
If you take Fox’s 3 point shooting percentage from last year he looks pretty good. But if you average Fox with the previous year, he by the numbers would be a below average shooter.

You have the same problem with Bogi in reverse. Bogi’s percentages were good year 1 and pretty poor year 2.

Bagley improved from beginning to end. Is he a 14 point per game player or 19 point per game player.

I think the second problem is analytics will model guys after other players. But even this approach breaks down given Joeger’s approach to limiting rookies their first year. It’s impossible to separate out year 1 to year 2 growth versus Joeger loosening the reigns.

It's not good analytics if the "analyzer" simply averages Year 1 with Year 2 for a young player. That would just be dumb. It's the progression that's important. Looking at progression, Fox and Bagley look good, Bogs doesn't.

 

[Iced Espresso]

It's not good analytics if the "analyzer" simply averages Year 1 with Year 2 for a young player. That would just be dumb. It's the progression that's important. Looking at progression, Fox and Bagley look good, Bogs doesn't.

I still think him hitting that game winning shot emboldened him. Then after that Domeinitus settled in.

 

[ESP47]

Last 10 games of the season, Bogs averaged

47% FG
49% 3pt FG
3.8ast
1.0TO
15.3pts

Maybe he was finally feeling healthy?

 

[ppine]

The wild card is Luke Walton.
The possibility of 40 wins seems real.

 

[Warhawk]

The wild card is Luke Walton.
The possibility of 40 wins seems real.

Frankly, 40 wins would be a disappointment. We won 39 last year with everyone complaining about rotations and losing 4 games to the Warriors by a total of a dozen points. We should be gunning for 45 MINIMUM. Walton was hired to "take us to the next level" - if we aren't in the PO (even as an 8 seed) I think the "next level" has not been reached. The FO has set the expectation with their words and actions and I think this is their goal next year.

I wasn't a fan of the hiring but the FO seemed to be giddy about it. I can see the reasoning now and hope it works out the way they think it will. I'm ready to be on a playoff train again. It's been too long.

 

[ppine]

First year coach and plenty of young players. Reasonable expectations are what is required.
I double dare the Kings to win more than 40 games.

 

[Warhawk]

First year coach and plenty of young players. Reasonable expectations are what is required.
I double dare the Kings to win more than 40 games.

"Reasonable expectations" have been set by the FO as I stated. The team added depth and shooting. The kids have another year of development. The FO canned the coach to take it to the "next level".

I don't think one more win than last year qualifies.

 

[sactowndog]

First year coach and plenty of young players. Reasonable expectations are what is required.
I double dare the Kings to win more than 40 games.

It’s hard to see 40-45 wins not being reasonable. They went 3-23 against the top 7 teams of Lakers, Clippers, Golden State, Portland, Houston, Utah and Denver and still won 39 games. Vlade has already proven he won’t tank even when he should and we have way less back to back disadvantaged games than last year.

 

[lwc]

It’s hard to see 40-45 wins not being reasonable. They went 3-23 against the top 7 teams of Lakers, Clippers, Golden State, Portland, Houston, Utah and Denver and still won 39 games. Vlade has already proven he won’t tank even when he should and we have way less back to back disadvantaged games than last year.

No reason to tank when the Kings have their young core. I agree with the strategy to win at all costs.

 

[kingsfan1984]

Using Quantum Analytics, kings most likely to win between 48 and 50 games

 

[Sac.Kings]

Using Quantum Analytics, kings most likely to win between 48 and 50 games

I would party like JR Smith for a week straight

 

[Gliesian]

Using Quantum Analytics, kings most likely to win between 48 and 50 games

Only a boson would think that

 

[Tobiou]

Fox may be a seminal player for the Kings. 45 wins for a successful season. Agree Walton is the wild card. Will he bring the team forward or will they take a step back?

 

[kingdivac]

Frankly, 40 wins would be a disappointment. We won 39 last year with everyone complaining about rotations and losing 4 games to the Warriors by a total of a dozen points. We should be gunning for 45 MINIMUM. Walton was hired to "take us to the next level" - if we aren't in the PO (even as an 8 seed) I think the "next level" has not been reached. The FO has set the expectation with their words and actions and I think this is their goal next year.

I wasn't a fan of the hiring but the FO seemed to be giddy about it. I can see the reasoning now and hope it works out the way they think it will. I'm ready to be on a playoff train again. It's been too long.

45 wins is a successful season record-wise, but it may not even get them in the playoffs. - it wouldn't have this last season. The Kings will need to do MUCH better than 3-23 against top competition in the West to make the Playoffs. I'm thinking 12-14 or 11-15 at very least. That's a tall order with what was shown last year honestly. Yes the team has changed, but I don't see that as necessarily improving, more a 'wait-and-see'. It's not impossible, but seems unlikely. There would need to be the same kind of leap next year as from last year, which would be remarkable. Hopefully they don't get in a hole early in the season, but rather jump on the horse.

 

[fnordius]

We could also end with 45 wins and 4th place in the Pacific. If there's ever been an NBA division that was more brutal, I'm not remembering it.

 

[sactowndog]

We could also end with 45 wins and 4th place in the Pacific. If there's ever been an NBA division that was more brutal, I'm not remembering it.

I’m not sure it’s a bad thing. With Vlade’s luck in the lottery. 45 wins and one more lottery pick could be sweet.

 

[kingdivac]

I’m not sure it’s a bad thing. With Vlade’s luck in the lottery. 45 wins and one more lottery pick could be sweet.

Except it would have to be some 4-leaf clover luck at pick 11 thru 14.

 

[rosa u podne]

Except it would have to be some 4-leaf clover luck at pick 11 thru 14.

With Vlade's luck, we could win the lottery.

 

[kingsboi]

We could also end with 45 wins and 4th place in the Pacific. If there's ever been an NBA division that was more brutal, I'm not remembering it.

2004-2005 Southwest Division had the Spurs at 59 wins, Mavs at 58, Rockets at 51 & Grizzlies at 45

 

[kingdivac]

2004-2005 Southwest Division had the Spurs at 59 wins, Mavs at 58, Rockets at 51 & Grizzlies at 45

I dont know about 58 or 59 wins for any Pacific teams this year. Maybe the Clippers. The other teams I doubt. Warriors, may win in the low 50s. Lakers high 40s maybe, If James is injured for more than 25 games,, deep-six 'em. Kings could win 45, although 45 and no playoffs is still no playoffs unfortunately. Bagley must be consistently good for the team to stand a chance against top tier teams ahead of them.