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Didn't mean to bold dilemma, will fix when not on mobile.
I think everything will work itself out organically. Still just December, and I think by the time we need to start making decisions things will be clearer.
Edit: Wanted to add, Willie has said before he is more comfortable playing the 4 than the 5. I think going forward Marvin Harry and Willie can just be the front court, and not any specific role.
I think everything will work itself out organically. Still just December, and I think by the time we need to start making decisions things will be clearer.
Edit: Wanted to add, Willie has said before he is more comfortable playing the 4 than the 5. I think going forward Marvin Harry and Willie can just be the front court, and not any specific role.
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I just meant that if Willie and Marvin don't play best together, the problem isn't what we do with Marvin. And with Willie's contract coming up we have to either decide if he fits long term or he's someone we can let go.
Giles is really the wild card in all of this. But I think we won't know for sure what we have until after we have decided on Willie.
Giles is really the wild card in all of this. But I think we won't know for sure what we have until after we have decided on Willie.
I clicked on the ESPN link ready to read some silly take on Marvin, but it's actually relatively insightful - although I wish they would have posted some stats to back up their claim that the Kings are getting "walloped" whenever Marvin is paired up with a center. I think there's a little more there than they are discussing (i.e. marvin often playing with the second unit, often without Fox...in particular early in the year); however their overall point is fair. Without Marvin having a dependable outside shot, at this point in his career he's probably better suited as a C with a shooter at PF. They state the lineup with Marvin and Belly (which we've been seeing more frequently in recent games) has been highly effective.
It's certainly not net rating, at least from what I see on basketball reference:
Kings w/ Bagley and Koufos on the floor: +3.1 points/100 possessions
Kings w/ Bagley and WCS on the floor: -1.0 points/100 possessions
Kings w/ Bagley and Bjelica on the floor -2.5 points/100 possessions
Kings w/ Bagley and Giles on the floor: -23.6 points/100 possessions
(For reference, Bagley/Hield pair is -1.0, and Bagley/Fox is -2.5).
Link here (for Bjelica's pairing, you have to go to his page)
Kings w/ Bagley and Koufos on the floor: +3.1 points/100 possessions
Kings w/ Bagley and WCS on the floor: -1.0 points/100 possessions
Kings w/ Bagley and Bjelica on the floor -2.5 points/100 possessions
Kings w/ Bagley and Giles on the floor: -23.6 points/100 possessions
(For reference, Bagley/Hield pair is -1.0, and Bagley/Fox is -2.5).
Link here (for Bjelica's pairing, you have to go to his page)
I don't see anyway that the Kings can just let WCS walk at the end of the season and be better for it.
WCS has been an integral part of this revitalized ball club and you can't replace what he does. He may not get the gaudy rebound numbers or the big block numbers, but his defense, chasing down and harrasing the other teams bigs and stretch 4s can not be easily replaced. He is very active as a harassing defender, making the opponent uncomfortable when the get the ball.
I think that Giles is way to raw to determine if he will be able to replace a WCS by the end of this season. I would say that unless WCS gets a max or near max contract offer, the Kings need to re-sign him this summer.
And I think that if Bagley and Giles can develop a consistent 3 point shot, there is no reason why a Bagley-Giles-WCS 3-man rotation can't become one of the best big man rotations in the NBA in 2 or 3 years. WCS could also serve as the 3rd big eventually, if Giles and Bagley develop as we hope. But, I think Giles is at least 1 or 2 years away from cracking the starting rotation.
WCS has been an integral part of this revitalized ball club and you can't replace what he does. He may not get the gaudy rebound numbers or the big block numbers, but his defense, chasing down and harrasing the other teams bigs and stretch 4s can not be easily replaced. He is very active as a harassing defender, making the opponent uncomfortable when the get the ball.
I think that Giles is way to raw to determine if he will be able to replace a WCS by the end of this season. I would say that unless WCS gets a max or near max contract offer, the Kings need to re-sign him this summer.
And I think that if Bagley and Giles can develop a consistent 3 point shot, there is no reason why a Bagley-Giles-WCS 3-man rotation can't become one of the best big man rotations in the NBA in 2 or 3 years. WCS could also serve as the 3rd big eventually, if Giles and Bagley develop as we hope. But, I think Giles is at least 1 or 2 years away from cracking the starting rotation.
So what is your threshhold? Are you comfortable paying him 20 million per over 4 years after 3 seasons of inconsistency?
I'm always wary of players who put it together in their contract years.
And yes I think Giles needs another year before we can evaluate and probably 2 before he can start. Unfortunate we don't have one more year of cost-controlled Willie.
I'm always wary of players who put it together in their contract years.
And yes I think Giles needs another year before we can evaluate and probably 2 before he can start. Unfortunate we don't have one more year of cost-controlled Willie.
Well then. I take back what I wrote. The ESPN take seems to be garabage and relatively light on facts. Back to BSPN it is...
The more we win the more likely he'll be willing to sign for less than max. Honesty 15M a year is about what he's worth. If we walks because he's passing up a 4 year 60M a year contract... not sure if we should keep him anyway. 3 years at 50M is about the top top end of what I think we pay him. I agree he's integral to our team, but he's not a max player. Fox is a max, Bagley will be a max, staring to get kinda crowded, good thing the salary cap will jump about 20-30 mill over the next 2-3 years lol!
I think the article was a little long winded way of saying the Kings have a ton of Centers on the team. Kings knew this going into the season but figured they would trade by the deadline to clear the log jam. The plans have been upended due to being in the playoff mix. Bagley's best position as of right now is C, so we won't see the best of him until the playoff run is over and the roster is overhauled.
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If we continue the offense we have been using this year then WCS fits fine and I think he seems to grasp that if he hustled down on offense he will get his points. He has NO outside shot and can be replaced on the pick and roll. Heck even KK was not bad last year on the pick and roll.
At this point I would not like to see the core broken up if we can push for the playoffs. After the season 14 to 16 mil a year for 3 with our option for the 4th.
As far as Bagley goes he passes the eye test and with the weight room and a off season of working on things he will be hard for the opponents to handle. I like him at PF
At this point I would not like to see the core broken up if we can push for the playoffs. After the season 14 to 16 mil a year for 3 with our option for the 4th.
As far as Bagley goes he passes the eye test and with the weight room and a off season of working on things he will be hard for the opponents to handle. I like him at PF
I lean towards matching anything WCS gets. Giles is 2 years away from being a nightly contributor. Bagley is best as a C right now, but WCS does a lot for us. He is an unbelievably good passer for a guy with his profile. The reads he is responsible for on some possessions are really incredible. That’s really, really difficult to replace this side of Draymond. Bagley covers for WCS’s sometimes lackluster rebounding, but WCS’s positional defense is rarely matched at his position.
Plus, I think anything comfortably south of the max would be moveable down the road, if it came to that.
Plus, I think anything comfortably south of the max would be moveable down the road, if it came to that.
Yeah this is the big reason for his low RPM ranking.
RPM is supposed to take into account the teammates you're playing with to try and get a real indication of how a player is contributing to wins or losses. So unlike the regular +/- stat where you could play great defense and offense but you're on the court with 4 G leaguers so you're still in the negative....RPM is supposed to vet that out a bit and give the player more credit for having to play with bad teammates. Basically showing that it's not all his fault.
I think his low ranking is mainly due to his defense. Giles is ranked 253 in defensive RPM while Bagley is ranked 453. Usually with advanced stats, big men top the charts on the defensive side of it. When you look at the leader board in defensive RPM, it's littered with mostly centers. According to the stat, Giles has been a very bad defender but Bagley has been absolutely awful. Usually the only big men that are down in that area are the Enes Kanters of the world.
The eye test tells me Bagley isn't all that bad on defense but I think a lot of it has to do with him reacting late or not knowing where to be and it's not very obvious to us because we can't sit there and calculate his off ball defensive assignments every time down the court. From a statistical point of view, Giles grabs 1 more rebound and nabs 1.5 stls per36 more than Bagley. While Bagley has 5 less fouls and .8 more blocks per36. Yet RPM has Giles as almost twice the defender Bagley is. Now to me those 5 more fouls should sink Giles but for whatever reason they don't so he must be doing something better on the defense end that we can't really see. I think that and playing a lot of minutes with the benchers is what has his RPM ranking down in the dumps.
RPM is supposed to take into account the teammates you're playing with to try and get a real indication of how a player is contributing to wins or losses. So unlike the regular +/- stat where you could play great defense and offense but you're on the court with 4 G leaguers so you're still in the negative....RPM is supposed to vet that out a bit and give the player more credit for having to play with bad teammates. Basically showing that it's not all his fault.
I think his low ranking is mainly due to his defense. Giles is ranked 253 in defensive RPM while Bagley is ranked 453. Usually with advanced stats, big men top the charts on the defensive side of it. When you look at the leader board in defensive RPM, it's littered with mostly centers. According to the stat, Giles has been a very bad defender but Bagley has been absolutely awful. Usually the only big men that are down in that area are the Enes Kanters of the world.
The eye test tells me Bagley isn't all that bad on defense but I think a lot of it has to do with him reacting late or not knowing where to be and it's not very obvious to us because we can't sit there and calculate his off ball defensive assignments every time down the court. From a statistical point of view, Giles grabs 1 more rebound and nabs 1.5 stls per36 more than Bagley. While Bagley has 5 less fouls and .8 more blocks per36. Yet RPM has Giles as almost twice the defender Bagley is. Now to me those 5 more fouls should sink Giles but for whatever reason they don't so he must be doing something better on the defense end that we can't really see. I think that and playing a lot of minutes with the benchers is what has his RPM ranking down in the dumps.
I'm not sure if someone posted this elsewhere, but a solid article from the ringer on fox: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/12/17/18145181/deaaron-fox-sacramento-kings-2017-draft
Nothing we don't already know, but nice recognition and starting to broach the subject of him being at the top of last year's draft class (I'm still not sure I have the same Tatum love as the Ringer constantly does....)
Nothing we don't already know, but nice recognition and starting to broach the subject of him being at the top of last year's draft class (I'm still not sure I have the same Tatum love as the Ringer constantly does....)
I came to see if that had been posted since it popped up at the bottom of the Ringer Trade primer I had open earlier. Nothing really of note other than it highlighted our trade flexibility and suggested Porter for Z-bo, JJ, and Skal (I think that was the deal) and said it was an overcommit for the Kings.
I think I understand what you are saying, but I actually think that if we win more, he'll expect more.
To begin with, he'll probably think that he has contributed to the winning and deserves to get paid (not entirely unreasonable). More importantly, if we turn the corner after over a decade, we'd be loathe to lose an important starter for nothing.
Players on their rookie contract will always be looking for their big payday, and I don't grudge Willie for wanting that (my assumption of course, that he will try to maximize). Given that a lot of teams will have huge space, and will be chasing few quality FAs, I think Willie will be in demand. How much does that translate to in an offer sheet, we can only hope it's not too outlandish. All it takes is one GM though.
To begin with, he'll probably think that he has contributed to the winning and deserves to get paid (not entirely unreasonable). More importantly, if we turn the corner after over a decade, we'd be loathe to lose an important starter for nothing.
Players on their rookie contract will always be looking for their big payday, and I don't grudge Willie for wanting that (my assumption of course, that he will try to maximize). Given that a lot of teams will have huge space, and will be chasing few quality FAs, I think Willie will be in demand. How much does that translate to in an offer sheet, we can only hope it's not too outlandish. All it takes is one GM though.