Here is What "Consensus" Gets You

[Kingster]

2008 - http://www.nba.com/draft2008/board/mock.html

2009 - https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/209052/Consensus-2009-NBA-Draft-Rankings-V10

2010 - http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/06/23/2010-nba-consensus-mock-draft-623/

2011 - http://www.nba.com/hornets/11_mock_drafts.html

2012 - https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/consensus-mock-draft-nba-draft-2012/

2013 - http://www.nba.com/news/2013-consensus-mock-draft/

2014 - http://www.nba.com/news/2014-consensus-mock-draft/

We all have a pretty good idea of the quality (or not) of those picks that were in 2014 and earlier. If you think "it's different this time," please think again.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

A few of these drafts show up in the "redrafting the awful xxxx draft" on my facebook feeds regularly. I'm not sure there has ever been as much hype around two guys as the top two this year in the last 10 years. Truthfully we were talking about them before the last draft (along with MPJ pre-injury). Are they worthy? We can't say until they play. But this feels different especially because neither guy had an NCAA tourney run that captured any imagination. We shall see if anyone shows up at the combines and blows the projections out of the water.

All that said, Wiggins was probably the most hyped player in the last 10 years and he has come nowhere near meeting the expectations put on him.

 

[Kingz19]

I think as we get closer other names will emerge to help ease the pressure on Vlade to simply pick whoever is left of Doncic and Ayton. Through their own workouts and the grapevine.

Getting a little nervous. People don’t react well to surprises at pick 13. Vlade might be bound to the consensus at number 2 or else pitchforks but these things always get more interesting once workouts and research begin. Especially when a Euro player is projected so high and not doing workouts for anybody.

 

[funkykingston]

2008 - http://www.nba.com/draft2008/board/mock.html

2009 - https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/209052/Consensus-2009-NBA-Draft-Rankings-V10

2010 - http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/06/23/2010-nba-consensus-mock-draft-623/

2011 - http://www.nba.com/hornets/11_mock_drafts.html

2012 - https://www.spreadsheetsports.com/consensus-mock-draft-nba-draft-2012/

2013 - http://www.nba.com/news/2013-consensus-mock-draft/

2014 - http://www.nba.com/news/2014-consensus-mock-draft/

We all have a pretty good idea of the quality (or not) of those picks that were in 2014 and earlier. If you think "it's different this time," please think again.

I don't think this has anything to do with the "consensus" as most of those were pretty close to what actually happened in the draft. Other than injuries to Noel & Embiid skewing things (well and the Cavs reaching for Bennett) they aren't far off. And they even had Kawhi higher than he actually went.

If you're just getting at the fact that the draft is largely a crapshoot I agree of course. The #2 pick especially hasn't been a great spot for star players so far this century.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Honestly I'm not sure I get your point. I think we all know that just like every other year there is likely to be some player buried around 8 to 14 that turns out to be the steal of the draft and there's likely to be a top 5 player or three that turn out to be busts. That's not new information. Now if somebody can show me either a consistent system or a consistent person picking players well above their expected slot that turn out to be high performance players then you would get my attention.

My point is there is no crystal ball, every front office goes through its own system but for the most part they look alike and are very similar to what the sports writers see. Consensus picks get picked not because they're the consensus but because they produced a quality body of work that Justified picking them where they were at. So guys that underperform in college or overseas, or suffer injuries sometimes turn out to be a steal. Maybe Vlade has something figured out and will surprise us all with a brilliant pick that no one saw coming, but I doubt it. And I would doubt that if any GM picking number 2 this year would not take either Ayton or Doncic: whichever the Sun's do not pick. In some ways it's an attractive position for a GM because you can always say well we would have taken the other guy but he wasn't available.

 

[funkykingston]

I think as we get closer other names will emerge to help ease the pressure on Vlade to simply pick whoever is left of Doncic and Ayton. Through their own workouts and the grapevine.

Getting a little nervous. People don’t react well to surprises at pick 13. Vlade might be bound to the consensus at number 2 or else pitchforks but these things always get more interesting once workouts and research begin. Especially when a Euro player is projected so high and not doing workouts for anybody.

Fans would much rather be mad on draft night than four years later. Ask Knick fans if they still wish Phil Jackson had drafted Mudiay over Porzingis.

And if you're old enough, ask yourself honestly how you reacted when Petrie bypassed John Wallace for some kid playing in Greece.

 

[upinsmoke]

In my heart I think Mikal is going to be the best player of this class.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I think more than consensus you need to look at who are guys that have stood out for one or two years prior to their projected draft year. It seems like Ayton and Doncic meet this criteria. I've mentioned Wiggins who so far hasn't been the impact player he was projected. I am not sure Doncic and Ayton have received LeBron type hype, but again, we knew their names before their 18th birthday. Teams were tanking to get a shot at them.

Who are these can't miss, let's tank to get them prospects and how have they fared is maybe a better question.
Let's start a list...
Wiggins
Oden/Durant (perhaps the best comparison to current situation??)
LeBron
Duncan
Shaq

2nd tier?
Howard
Ming
AI

 

[Kingz19]

You have to take into account era as well. Nowadays a Hasheem Thabeet would be projected much lower regardless of his college exploits just on his ability to keep up alone. Also there was a time not that long ago where combo guards were seen as a dime a dozen and stretch fours were considered fairly useless. That’s how a Steph Curry was projected so low. Remember there was the “pure point guard” craze at that time. You either wanted a Steve Nash or a defensive minded Rondo type but not a guy who can potentially be your number 1 scorer. Rondo seems like such relic now even though he is still an amazing pure point guard. Nobody wanted tweeners until a couple of years ago and now it hurts your stock if you’re too exclusive to one position.

 

[funkykingston]

I think more than consensus you need to look at who are guys that have stood out for one or two years prior to their projected draft year. It seems like Ayton and Doncic meet this criteria. I've mentioned Wiggins who so far hasn't been the impact player he was projected. I am not sure Doncic and Ayton have received LeBron type hype, but again, we knew their names before their 18th birthday. Teams were tanking to get a shot at them.

Who are these can't miss, let's tank to get them prospects and how have they fared is maybe a better question.
Let's start a list...
Wiggins
Oden/Durant (perhaps the best comparison to current situation??)
LeBron
Duncan
Shaq

2nd tier?
Howard
Ming
AI

The top players going IN to this season would have been Bagley, Porter and Doncic. Bamba and Ayton were looked at as being in the next tier until Ayton started to show a better motor/intensity and put up numbers at Arizona.

 

[funkykingston]

You have to take into account era as well. Nowadays a Hasheem Thabeet would be projected much lower regardless of his college exploits just on his ability to keep up alone. Also there was a time not that long ago where combo guards were seen as a dime a dozen and stretch fours were considered fairly useless. That’s how a Steph Curry was projected so low. Remember there was the “pure point guard” craze at that time. You either wanted a Steve Nash or a defensive minded Rondo type but not a guy who can potentially be your number 1 scorer. Nobody wanted tweeners until a couple of years ago.

It wasn't that teams didn't want a #1 option scorer at the PG position - it was that nobody actually thought Curry could do what he's done on the NBA level. Remember, Iverson went #1 as a lead guard. The age of analytics and Steph being a revelation as a shooter actually were two huge parts of ushering in the modern NBA.

 

[burekijogurt]

I think the point is that while everyone might agree that its either Ayton or Doncic in this draft, looking at how players actually turned out and what was the agreement about them when they were drafted, shows that we should at least consider options other than just drafting the one the Suns dont get. Basically we should do our due diligence and investigate all options including drafting different players, trading down, etc..

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The top players going IN to this season would have been Bagley, Porter and Doncic. Bamba and Ayton were looked at as being in the next tier until Ayton started to show a better motor/intensity and put up numbers at Arizona.

Maybe because I'm an Arizona fan he was higher on my radar. Definitely MPJ was right up there but fell off because of injury concerns. Either way players that fall out of that group of "can't miss" aren't what I think we should be looking at.

Doncic was for sure on people's radar over a year ago and I am 80% sure Phoenix picks Ayton so really this conversation starts and ends with him.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

You have to take into account era as well. Nowadays a Hasheem Thabeet would be projected much lower regardless of his college exploits just on his ability to keep up alone. Also there was a time not that long ago where combo guards were seen as a dime a dozen and stretch fours were considered fairly useless. That’s how a Steph Curry was projected so low. Remember there was the “pure point guard” craze at that time. You either wanted a Steve Nash or a defensive minded Rondo type but not a guy who can potentially be your number 1 scorer. Rondo seems like such relic now even though he is still an amazing pure point guard. Nobody wanted tweeners until a couple of years ago and now it hurts your stock if you’re too exclusive to one position.

Jesus I'm pretty sure as recently as 2 years ago most on this board relentlessly mocked the idea of "positionless basketball" and questioned why Cousins would ever shoot a ball beyond the 3-pt line.

And I think it's still hard to determine whether it's just for a lack of transcendent players in the big positions or if it's because the rules of the game (or how refs interpret/call them) has changed it for the foreseeable future.

 

[gunks]

I think more than consensus you need to look at who are guys that have stood out for one or two years prior to their projected draft year. It seems like Ayton and Doncic meet this criteria. I've mentioned Wiggins who so far hasn't been the impact player he was projected. I am not sure Doncic and Ayton have received LeBron type hype, but again, we knew their names before their 18th birthday. Teams were tanking to get a shot at them.

Who are these can't miss, let's tank to get them prospects and how have they fared is maybe a better question.
Let's start a list...
Wiggins
Oden/Durant (perhaps the best comparison to current situation??)
LeBron
Duncan
Shaq

2nd tier?
Howard
Ming
AI

We could also play the "where would they have gone last draft" game!

Ayton still has the size/athleticism/potential edge on everyone from last year. Doncic is basically a bigger, stronger, better shooting Lonzo Ball, who went 2nd. I could see Ayton and Doncic being 1 and 2 guys last year.

Obviously we all still want Vlade to do his homework. But I think Ayton and Doncic are on their own tier (with Bagely hovering around just beneath it).

A lot could happen leading up to the draft. I don't think us trading down for Bagely or JJJ is out of the question, but standing pat at 2 and taking one of Doncic or Ayton is considered the safe/smart move for a reason. Those guys are good.

 

[Kingz19]

Fans would much rather be mad on draft night than four years later. Ask Knick fans if they still wish Phil Jackson had drafted Mudiay over Porzingis.

And if you're old enough, ask yourself honestly how you reacted when Petrie bypassed John Wallace for some kid playing in Greece.

I agree with all of that.

What I was getting at was that I worry that Vlade and friends would allow that type of negative reaction push them into making the safe draft night pick. Vlade is on a self imposed 2 year plan. I don’t know how many of these “Vlade is a moron” crusades he can deal with.

I personally don’t stress over surprise picks. If anything I get even more excited for them.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

We could also play the "where would they have gone last draft" game!

Ayton still has the size/athleticism/potential edge on everyone from last year. Doncic is basically a bigger, stronger, better shooting Lonzo Ball, who went 2nd. I could see Ayton and Doncic being 1 and 2 guys last year.

Obviously we all still want Vlade to do his homework. But I think Ayton and Doncic are on their own tier (with Bagely hovering sons just beneath it).

From what I know they would have gone 1-2 in more than a few drafts this decade. Like I said I think only Wiggins had the pure year-plus hype that these two have and Anthony Davis managed to achieve can't miss status prior to the lotto.

 

[funkykingston]

I agree with all of that.

What I was getting at was that I worry that Vlade and friends would allow that type of negative reaction push them into making the safe draft night pick. Vlade is on a self imposed 2 year plan. I don’t know how many of these “Vlade is a moron” crusades he can deal with.

I personally don’t stress over surprise picks. If anything I get even more excited for them.

I think if Vlade cared at all about how fans would react he never would have drafted Papagiannis.

I know that other teams (Boston specifically) were reportedly going to take him if the Kings passed, but nabbing a guy in the late lottery who was on most everybody's radar as a possible 2nd rounder was going to upset the fan base and he did it anyway. Right or wrong I think Vlade will take his guy regardless of consensus.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I think if Vlade cared at all about how fans would react he never would have drafted Papagiannis.

I know that other teams (Boston specifically) were reportedly going to take him if the Kings passed, but nabbing a guy in the late lottery who was on most everybody's radar as a possible 2nd rounder was going to upset the fan base and he did it anyway. Right or wrong I think Vlade will take his guy regardless of consensus.

I think Doncic is his guy. If Phoenix takes him then I think maybe we consider a trade for 3/4 and go for Bagley/JJJ and either a SF or a 2019 first.

Giles is the big wildcard here. Internally the team probably has a pretty good handle on what they do/don't have, regardless of what they let slip to the papers.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I agree with all of that.

What I was getting at was that I worry that Vlade and friends would allow that type of negative reaction push them into making the safe draft night pick. Vlade is on a self imposed 2 year plan. I don’t know how many of these “Vlade is a moron” crusades he can deal with.

"Self-imposed," right. Divac is going to get to the end of that two-year pledge, and the Kings are going to still be bad, and then Divac is going to be like Smokey, at the end of Friday:

"I was just bull****tin'... And you know this, man!"

 

[pdxKingsFan]

"Self-imposed," right. Divac is going to get to the end of that two-year pledge, and the Kings are going to still be bad, and then Divac is going to be like Smokey, at the end of Friday:

"I was just bull****tin'... And you know this, man!"

I like Vlade and I believe in what he's been doing but seriously, if this team isn't 35+ wins next season and playoff bound the next, Vivek had better hold him accountable.

 

[funkykingston]

I think Doncic is his guy. If Phoenix takes him then I think maybe we consider a trade for 3/4 and go for Bagley/JJJ and either a SF or a 2019 first.

Giles is the big wildcard here. Internally the team probably has a pretty good handle on what they do/don't have, regardless of what they let slip to the papers.

If PHX does somehow pass on Ayton for Doncic then I think you'll see exactly how much confidence Vlade has in WCS and (more importantly) Giles. I think he'd grab Ayton and call it a day (and I think I'd agree), but there will definitely be some significant offers for that pick if Ayton is still on the board.

 

[Kingster]

I don't think this has anything to do with the "connsensus" as most of those were pretty close to what actually happened in the draft. Other than injuries to Noel & Embiid skewing things (well and the Cavs reaching for Bennett) they aren't far off. And they even had Kawhi higher than he actually went.

If you're just getting at the fact that the draft is largely a crapshoot I agree of course. The #2 pick especially hasn't been a great spot for star players so far this century.

I really don't understand your post. You don't think this has anything to do with consensus, and yet all the title of the articles use the word, "consensus." What the? These mock consensus drafts have nothing to do with what happened after the draft is completed. Consensus mock drafts is what most "experts" were thinking BEFORE their respective drafts. And that's the situation we are in now - we are BEFORE the draft. And most experts think (i.e. consensus before the draft) Ayton and Doncic are going to be the first two picks in the draft. Given the above seven years of mock consensus drafts, should we take the current consensus to be a given? I don't think so. Now do you understand?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If PHX does somehow pass on Ayton for Doncic then I think you'll see exactly how much confidence Vlade has in WCS and (more importantly) Giles. I think he'd grab Ayton and call it a day (and I think I'd agree), but there will definitely be some significant offers for that pick if Ayton is still on the board.

It will be interesting because while Doncic and Ayton are far and away the top two guys right now, the next tier of guys all seem to be bigs and if the offers are right and you can still grab a top 5 pick maybe you go for it.

I still would feel best if we just take whichever one falls to us but who knows what might happen in the combines and private workouts.

 

[midtowner]

I’m digging the Doncic comp to Lonzo Ball. I think Doncic is going to have a strong defensive impact, like Ball. And I also think their basketball IQ is similar.

For some reason, people tend to discount basketball IQ and skill level when speaking of trends in the modern game. I worry that the analytic talk misses the forest for the trees. LeBron, Steph, Harden, Paul, KD, Iguadala, Love, Kyrie are all basketball geniuses and they inspire their teammates. Those guys use analytics to refine their game - but analytic played no role in those guys becoming instinctive, intuitive and quick reacting players.

To me, Doncic is a clear path to the Kings becoming a real team that shares the ball enthusiastically and has each others back. I can’t say the same thing for others in this draft.

 

[funkykingston]

I really don't understand your post. You don't think this has anything to do with consensus, and yet all the title of the articles use the word, "consensus." What the? These mock consensus drafts have nothing to do with what happened after the draft is completed. Consensus mock drafts is what most "experts" were thinking BEFORE their respective drafts. And that's the situation we are in now - we are BEFORE the draft. And most experts think (i.e. consensus before the draft) Ayton and Doncic are going to be the first two picks in the draft. Given the above seven years of mock consensus drafts, should we take the current consensus to be a given? I don't think so. Now do you understand?

I guess my only point was that the consensus of the mock drafts correlated almost exactly with what happened. I don't think that's a result of group think or GMs reading some blogger's mock draft and basing a decision on it. I think it's that people have a very good view of who the best prospects are. The Kings, like every NBA team, have had a prospects board in the works for the entire NCAA season. They aren't assembling it based on outside information.

Hindsight is 20/20 but at the time Evan Turner looked to me like the 2nd best player in his class, even before mock draft season started. I don't think it's that the consensus is generally wrong. I think it's that the draft is a crapshoot because we can never fully know a kid's motivation level, commitment to improvement, we can't predict injuries where there wasn't any before, we can't know for sure who will flourish or fail when placed in different circumstances than their college team, and because changes to rules change can change a player's value.

Cleveland went against the consensus to draft Anthony Bennett who was one of the biggest busts of recent history.

Seattle went with the consensus opinion and snatched up Durant once Portland took Oden.

So I guess I don't understand what you're getting at. Teams should go against consensus because lots of consensus top picks are busts? Lots of picks are busts period.

 

[Kingz19]

I think if Vlade cared at all about how fans would react he never would have drafted Papagiannis.

I know that other teams (Boston specifically) were reportedly going to take him if the Kings passed, but nabbing a guy in the late lottery who was on most everybody's radar as a possible 2nd rounder was going to upset the fan base and he did it anyway. Right or wrong I think Vlade will take his guy regardless of consensus.

Yeah, but you mentioned he took his guy and the guy busted out fairly quickly and not a day goes by where Vlade isn’t reminded of that even though the draft was crap and the Kings overall came out as well as anybody in that range(better considering Bogdan). You’re probably right, it’s mostly for sake of discussion in regards to the consensus topic and my own draft jitters. Vlade has taken a considerable amount of abuse since that particular draft. Picking his guy that year is just one of them. There is of course the Boogie fall out. The ever lingering Philly trade.

You don’t think it will impact his pick, and I’m hoping it doesn’t.

"Self-imposed," right. Divac is going to get to the end of that two-year pledge, and the Kings are going to still be bad, and then Divac is going to be like Smokey, at the end of Friday:

"I was just bull****tin'... And you know this, man!"

That’s funny..and that will likely be the case from his end. Quite sure it won’t be the case from the majority of fans who’s voices are most heard and not at peace with the Boogie trade, the futility, and still don’t think we have a good foundation in place... quite possibly not the case with Vivek either.

I think if the prevailing take by the end of next season or even by the deadline is that Vlade sucks and the Kings are just amassing young players with no real direction or franchise player or established core pieces than fans will cash in on his words made post Boogie trade.

I really like our foundation right now. I watch Fox and wonder how anybody can not see a big time player in the making and I’m baffled at the lukewarm response to the talents of Buddy Hield who I think can also be a star. I’m overall satisfied with what Vlade is doing. But aware that’s not the consensus by a long shot.

 

[funkykingston]

I’m digging the Doncic comp to Lonzo Ball. I think Doncic is going to have a strong defensive impact, like Ball. And I also think their basketball IQ is similar.

For some reason, people tend to discount basketball IQ and skill level when speaking of trends in the modern game. I worry that the analytic talk misses the forest for the trees. LeBron, Steph, Harden, Paul, KD, Iguadala, Love, Kyrie are all basketball geniuses and they inspire their teammates. Those guys use analytics to refine their game - but analytic played no role in those guys becoming instinctive, intuitive and quick reacting players.

To me, Doncic is a clear path to the Kings becoming a real team that shares the ball enthusiastically and has each others back. I can’t say the same thing for others in this draft.

It's not a bad comp in some ways. Both are decent athletes but lack blow by speed, both are very heady, cerebral players who can control the action with the ball in their hands, both are great passers while being a threat from outside, both are sneaky good rebounders, and both give good effort on defense even if they lack good lateral quickness.

On the positive side for Doncic, he has much better shot mechanics and can get his shot off going left or right whereas Ball really can't pull-up going right and has to use a step-back to get his shot off. Ball did look better down the stretch and seems to be changing his mechanics but right now it's still a weakness.

The struggle for Doncic is that he's almost certainly not going to be a full-time PG like Ball or even Ben Simmons. Ball's length at PG lets him be an effective defender even though he can't contain his man. He can't stop guys from turning the corner but he can still affect or block their shot inside. Doncic is even slower laterally and if he's a wing he'll either be the same size or smaller than the guys he guards so he won't have the same kind of advantage Lonzo has. Ball also moves the ball very willingly and plays off the ball more often than Doncic. That will be a big one as if the Kings draft Luka they'll still have Fox as the PG and Bogdan as a secondary/tertiary ballhandler so Doncic would have to be able to play off the ball successfully for stretches. He has done plenty of that with Dragic and looked good, so it's just a matter of whether he can still be as effective if he isn't running the offense most of the time.

Some kind of a Lonzo and bigger, slower Harden hybrid is how I'm seeing Doncic. If he can be that, it's not a bad thing.

 

[Kingster]

I guess my only point was that the consensus of the mock drafts correlated almost exactly with what happened. I don't think that's a result of group think or GMs reading some blogger's mock draft and basing a decision on it. (1) I think it's that people have a very good view of who the best prospects are. The Kings, like every NBA team, have had a prospects board in the works for the entire NCAA season. They aren't assembling it based on outside information.

Hindsight is 20/20 but at the time Evan Turner looked to me like the 2nd best player in his class, even before mock draft season started. (2) I don't think it's that the consensus is generally wrong. I think it's that the draft is a crapshoot because we can never fully know a kid's motivation level, commitment to improvement or predict injuries where there wasn't any before.

Cleveland went against the consensus to draft Anthony Bennett who was one of the biggest busts of recent history.

Seattle went with the consensus opinion and snatched up Durant once Portland took Oden.

So I guess I don't understand what you're getting at. Teams should go against consensus because lots of consensus top picks are busts? Lots of picks are busts period.

1) They do? Based on the consensus mock drafts I have provided you think they had a very good idea of the best prospects? I've just provided seven years of data showing the consensus is wrong more times than not and you believe they (the consensus of experts) had a very good idea of best prospects?

2) So in your view you can be wrong but still be right? Is this in the same vein as, "I was right before I was wrong"? Are you in politics by any chance?

Look, many people on this board have just said, don't overthink, just go with the consensus of 99% of the experts who believe that Ayton and Doncic should be #1 and #2 ( or maybe switched). The above data shows the opposite: Don't buy into the consensus of experts. They aren't generally correct. (And no, that doesn't mean that you should necessarily go against consensus either!)

 

[Padrino]

1) They do? Based on the consensus mock drafts I have provided you think they had a very good idea of the best prospects? I've just provided seven years of data showing the consensus is wrong more times than not and you believe they (the consensus of experts) had a very good idea of best prospects?

2) So in your view you can be wrong but still be right? Is this in the same vein as, "I was right before I was wrong"? Are you in politics by any chance?

Look, many people on this board have just said, don't overthink, just go with the consensus of 99% of the experts who believe that Ayton and Doncic should be #1 and #2 ( or maybe switched). The above data shows the opposite: Don't buy into the consensus of experts. They aren't generally correct. (And no, that doesn't mean that you should necessarily go against consensus either!)

It seems to me that funky is saying that consensus is reached based on the best possible information available leading up to the moment of a player's drafting. What the hell else are you going to rely on? Blind luck? What do you propose scouts do instead? Throw a dart at their "big board" and select the guy it lands on? There will always be players who outperform expectations, and there will always be players who fail to meet expectations. Without the benefit of a crystal ball, however, you scout their physical tools, their skillset, their grasp of the game, their execution, their efficiency, their mental fortitude, their killer instinct, etc., and you hope that the variety of factors that led you to select player X in the first place will translate effectively to the NBA, and that those tools can be developed further.