Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]
- Thread starter hrdboild
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We have to wait until after the draft to connect the dots on the thinking of this FO. Until then, you don't know what to believe. Out of curiosity sake I'd like for WCS, Hezonja, and Winslow to all be available when the Kings select at #6. It would provide some insight into Vlade's thinking on who he regards as the best player of the three.
WCS has the sickle cell trait, which hurts his endurance
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ukbeat/2013/12/11/cauley-steins-sickle-cell-problem/
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ukbeat/2013/12/11/cauley-steins-sickle-cell-problem/
“We know our coach and the pieces he needs. And I really believe we are going to be a totally different team next season, with different energy. Our goal next year is not only to have a winning season, but a playoff season. This draft is important, but it’s only the beginning.”
One question that has come up about this team is exactly how much change the FO is contemplating. This quote indicates to me that they don't want incremental change with, say, a draft pick and a FA coming in. It looks like there could be a lot more change than stability.
One question that has come up about this team is exactly how much change the FO is contemplating. This quote indicates to me that they don't want incremental change with, say, a draft pick and a FA coming in. It looks like there could be a lot more change than stability.
There are about 4-6 other team where Collison could start. He had a great season last year and perhaps he's figured it out / the Kings found a great asset, but he bounced around the league for his first 5 years. With that track record, he's not in a position to dictate terms if he would like to earn good money on his next contract. If he's on his 6th team in 7 or 8 years and was a malcontent to get out of a team (even Sacramento) that would hurt his value with several teams.
His niche just keeps getting smaller. He can't score, but that's ok because he's going to be an elite defender. Except that's he's not ideal to guard the handful of really big centers due to his build, but that's ok because he's going to play extended minutes of extreme hustle, speed and effort defense. Except that he's got a medical condition, which may impact his endurance.
It's true that it always hurts to pass on a guy who becomes a stud, but there is a big difference here. DeAndre Jordan was taken at the end of the first round, many thought he would fall into the second round. It is worth taking a chance on a guy like that at that point in the draft, but we are talking about the #6 pick here, there is a lot more value and potential talent available at this spot.
In my opinion, a lot of the talking that Divac and Karl have been doing may be somewhat true, but don't think that there may not be some smoke screens here as well. They do seem to be saying the same things, but is it the same truth or the same smoke screens? They continue to say rim protector, which obviously is Cauley-Stein, but I don't believe they are going that route. Just as I don't believe that the Magic are going that route either. I think there is a good chance that Cauley-Stein falls out of the top 10, that's why trading down may not be a bad thing if possible.
I don't think we get a chance at Mudiay either, more smoke screens pushing him down. I think the top five in no particular order will be Towns, Okafor, Russell, Porzingis, and Mudiay. That leaves us with either Winslow, Hezonja, or Cauley-Stein at that spot. I'm not sure any of them is worthy of that spot, maybe Hezonja, but he will need time. If the draft does fall this way then I think the Kings need to make a move here, trading the pick for two veterans is probably the preferred way or at least trading down for one veteran and a later pick.
In my opinion, a lot of the talking that Divac and Karl have been doing may be somewhat true, but don't think that there may not be some smoke screens here as well. They do seem to be saying the same things, but is it the same truth or the same smoke screens? They continue to say rim protector, which obviously is Cauley-Stein, but I don't believe they are going that route. Just as I don't believe that the Magic are going that route either. I think there is a good chance that Cauley-Stein falls out of the top 10, that's why trading down may not be a bad thing if possible.
I don't think we get a chance at Mudiay either, more smoke screens pushing him down. I think the top five in no particular order will be Towns, Okafor, Russell, Porzingis, and Mudiay. That leaves us with either Winslow, Hezonja, or Cauley-Stein at that spot. I'm not sure any of them is worthy of that spot, maybe Hezonja, but he will need time. If the draft does fall this way then I think the Kings need to make a move here, trading the pick for two veterans is probably the preferred way or at least trading down for one veteran and a later pick.
Definitely a big concern and I'm not sure how much that affects the Kings draft strategy.
The news on WCS could also mean that the Kings could trade back and still nab him.
Honestly, nabbing a veteran that can help right away and coming away with Kaminsky or Cauley-Stein wouldn't be a bad draft night at all.
I'm still curious to see if the Kings will take Mudiay if he's still on the board at 6. I'm not convinced he's a star in the making, but I do think he'd be a nice piece for Karl's offense. I'm also starting to wonder if it will be Russell who slips. Conventional wisdom says Philly takes him three (of course no one accuses Hinkie of being "conventional") and that if somehow he does slide to four that the Knicks grab him. But as much as I love watching the kid play, I'm not sure he's going to be as successful on the next level. The lack of a strong right hand combined with his subpar athleticism & struggle to get to the free throw line makes me wonder how he's going to fare.
The news on WCS could also mean that the Kings could trade back and still nab him.
Honestly, nabbing a veteran that can help right away and coming away with Kaminsky or Cauley-Stein wouldn't be a bad draft night at all.
I'm still curious to see if the Kings will take Mudiay if he's still on the board at 6. I'm not convinced he's a star in the making, but I do think he'd be a nice piece for Karl's offense. I'm also starting to wonder if it will be Russell who slips. Conventional wisdom says Philly takes him three (of course no one accuses Hinkie of being "conventional") and that if somehow he does slide to four that the Knicks grab him. But as much as I love watching the kid play, I'm not sure he's going to be as successful on the next level. The lack of a strong right hand combined with his subpar athleticism & struggle to get to the free throw line makes me wonder how he's going to fare.
Slow down, folks. From the CDC:
"Sickle cell trait (SCT) is not a disease, but having it means that a person has inherited the sickle cell gene from one of his or her parents. People with SCT usually do not have any of the symptoms of sickle cell disease (SCD) and live a normal life."
That said, athletes are more susceptible to fatigue, but that could be said about athletes relative to the general population anyway.
"Sickle cell trait (SCT) is not a disease, but having it means that a person has inherited the sickle cell gene from one of his or her parents. People with SCT usually do not have any of the symptoms of sickle cell disease (SCD) and live a normal life."
That said, athletes are more susceptible to fatigue, but that could be said about athletes relative to the general population anyway.
Jordan DID go in the second round - #35 by the Clippers. And that was after being projected to go in the first half of the first round by most draft sites.
But with Jordan it was more about what he couldn't do (footwork, shooting, post moves were all areas he struggled) and not a potential medical issue.
I'm as big a WCS fan as anyone on this board but that's a big red flag unfortunately.
But with Jordan it was more about what he couldn't do (footwork, shooting, post moves were all areas he struggled) and not a potential medical issue.
I'm as big a WCS fan as anyone on this board but that's a big red flag unfortunately.
Oh man. One of the few upsides of having a craptastic season like last year, which set us back to square two and perhaps damaged our relationship with our franchise player, is that we get to pick in the top 6 spots of a draft that has 6-8 prospects that are decent bets to become very good NBA players in a few years.
I'm not a fan of taking that long term asset and taking 75-80 cents on the haul value of the 6 pick for help now, but if you could get the right vets you'd be both trying to save this current version of the Kings and locking in 75 cents and not betting on the futures market. I'm not a fan of the long term impacts of that move, but you can defend it.
But trading back for a much riskier pick and getting lesser / more risky veteran help?!?! That's a much much taller task. I get why they would be "interested" in that type of deal if the right team came knocking, but if they are pushing for that type of move they are really going for broke. Instead of drafting Winslow or Muiday because we aren't sure about them and they don't want to be here, we'd say trade 6 or 11 and George Hill and draft Frank the Tank if WCS didn't fall that far. Two risky bets for triples instead of taking one decent bet at one ... no thanks.
I'm not a fan of taking that long term asset and taking 75-80 cents on the haul value of the 6 pick for help now, but if you could get the right vets you'd be both trying to save this current version of the Kings and locking in 75 cents and not betting on the futures market. I'm not a fan of the long term impacts of that move, but you can defend it.
But trading back for a much riskier pick and getting lesser / more risky veteran help?!?! That's a much much taller task. I get why they would be "interested" in that type of deal if the right team came knocking, but if they are pushing for that type of move they are really going for broke. Instead of drafting Winslow or Muiday because we aren't sure about them and they don't want to be here, we'd say trade 6 or 11 and George Hill and draft Frank the Tank if WCS didn't fall that far. Two risky bets for triples instead of taking one decent bet at one ... no thanks.
Normal People with sickle cell trait live normal lives.... But WCS is an elite athlete playing elite competition, every little ounce counts. When his body is stressed enough, his red blood cells start sickling a little. The article mention that he was having chest pains after playing 26 minutes
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That is correct, sorry about that, for some reason I remember waiting for him to fall to the second round and he didn't quite make it, maybe it was someone else.
Further proves my point though and not because of the medical issue, I felt this way before. It's true that Jordan was really all potential, great size, length, and athleticism, could already rebound and block shots well, but that was about it. However in my opinion, Cauley-Stein is really not that much more at this point. Sure his game is a little more refined and his basketball IQ is higher, but outside of defending the pick and roll well all he does is rebound and block shots well, just like Jordan. I'm not saying that I don't want Cauley-Stein, I just don't think he is worthy of the #6 pick and I don't think he will be.
Further proves my point though and not because of the medical issue, I felt this way before. It's true that Jordan was really all potential, great size, length, and athleticism, could already rebound and block shots well, but that was about it. However in my opinion, Cauley-Stein is really not that much more at this point. Sure his game is a little more refined and his basketball IQ is higher, but outside of defending the pick and roll well all he does is rebound and block shots well, just like Jordan. I'm not saying that I don't want Cauley-Stein, I just don't think he is worthy of the #6 pick and I don't think he will be.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Cauley-Steins-Foot-Giving-Lottery-Teams-Pause-5123
I always wonder how much misinformation is spread concerning medical conditions to improve a teams chances of getting a player? I recall when Grag Oden was drafted there were numerous teams that cited preexisting conditions. Apparently, the Blazers lost that gamble.
I always wonder how much misinformation is spread concerning medical conditions to improve a teams chances of getting a player? I recall when Grag Oden was drafted there were numerous teams that cited preexisting conditions. Apparently, the Blazers lost that gamble.
You're right and I think there is a very good chance that does happen with Cauley-Stein as well, but perhaps that is what should happen. I liked Jordan a lot in that draft and didn't think he should have fallen that far, but I understand why he did. Honestly I liked Jordan more in that draft than I like Cauley-Stein in this one. Sure Cauley-Stein will contribute earlier than most prospects I believe, but it just seems like there is a ceiling there. However if we can trade down, then I'm more for it.
Sure. But, this gets back to my mindset, which I'll concede most don't agree with, that we have a chance this week to draft an exceptional player that will be on the Kings for 4-7 years that: (1) will probably only play for Cousins for 2 years; and (2) will need to be one of our better assets when we start over again.
If you think odds favor we'll be in a spot to resign DMC, then WSC is a good support piece. But if the odds don't favor DMC signing a contract to finish his prime here and we aren't picking in the top 10 for at least another 24 months, there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans wondering why the Kings are still so bad, why are we starting over yet again with almost no assets, and how did we get so little with that many top 7 picks.
This summer is a huge fork in the road summer. I get the impression that we're going for broke over the next 18 months to: (1) boost ticket demand: and (2) woo DMC to be willing to resign ... in that order. That's a fine plan, but if we don't make the playoffs this season or next, we are setting up a downside where the team misses the playoffs for 13-15 years. I'm totally cool with anybody that says - to hell with it, let's do this. But the downside is very big, very real, and probably the better bet if our new front office doesn't manage the team at A- level over the next 14 months.
If you think odds favor we'll be in a spot to resign DMC, then WSC is a good support piece. But if the odds don't favor DMC signing a contract to finish his prime here and we aren't picking in the top 10 for at least another 24 months, there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans wondering why the Kings are still so bad, why are we starting over yet again with almost no assets, and how did we get so little with that many top 7 picks.
This summer is a huge fork in the road summer. I get the impression that we're going for broke over the next 18 months to: (1) boost ticket demand: and (2) woo DMC to be willing to resign ... in that order. That's a fine plan, but if we don't make the playoffs this season or next, we are setting up a downside where the team misses the playoffs for 13-15 years. I'm totally cool with anybody that says - to hell with it, let's do this. But the downside is very big, very real, and probably the better bet if our new front office doesn't manage the team at A- level over the next 14 months.
Kinda bummed about WCS because he's the player a lot of us have been wanting on this team for YEARS.. Pretty much ever since we missed out on Noah. We have a good chance to get a player like that and then these reports come out about his foot..
Ahh well.. DX is usually correct and they have him dropping to Indiana.
Does Hibbert have to "opt in" after July first? If so we couldn't trade the draft pick for Hibbert and Indy's pick could we?
Ahh well.. DX is usually correct and they have him dropping to Indiana.
Does Hibbert have to "opt in" after July first? If so we couldn't trade the draft pick for Hibbert and Indy's pick could we?
I agree Collison isn't in a position to dictate terms. I'm coming at it from a different vantage point - how other potential FA's and agents view the Kings. Do they view as a bait and switch? If so, it wouldn't be advisable for the Kings to bring in a new vet pg to start and demote Collison to the bench. Unfortunately, the league image of the Kings appears to be so poor it would seem that the Kings should be concerned about making it even worse.
If Mudiay is available at #6 and Divac believes he the best available player, it's hard for me to believe Divac doesn't take him. Divac is obviously aware of the Webber situation and how that turned out. How much weight is he going to give to a whippersnapper refusing to work out for him?
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As we are getting closer to the draft there are more and more reports out and I think we are getting a clearer picture of things and I think a trade with the Nuggets is becoming a real possibility, perhaps it makes too much sense and that's why it won't happen, but here's why it could.
- We already know about Karl's connections to many of those players, that's why we have been talking about this for awhile now.
- The Nuggets are clearly looking to move their bad contracts, mainly Lawson and Faried, it won't take much to get them, they are just looking to dump salary while getting something in return.
- Rumors are that many teams are interested in Hezonja, especially the Nuggets. There will likely be many teams looking to trade with us to jump ahead of the Nuggets to get him and that means the Nuggets may need to trade with us to prevent that from happening, they may spend big to do so.
- More rumors suggest the Nuggets are liking some other players in the lottery and would like to add another pick, not just swap picks. Trading with us gives them their perfect night.
- For reference these rumors come from Hoopshype.com and Insidehoops.com.
I suspect Vlade will make sure he knows whether DMC is resigning before he's a FA so we can get something meaningful in return via trade , albeit of lesser value. It would destroy this team if he walks for nothing. That's 3 years away anyway.
While we have him though, we just HAVE to go for it and build around him
While we have him though, we just HAVE to go for it and build around him
Free agents view Sacramento as NBA Siberia.
We signed a borderline starter to a bigger contract than anyone else offered. We started him for one year as we said we would. When he was good, but not in the top 1/2 of the league as his spot we allowed him to compete for the starting spot the next year in an open competition. Just like in 3 other cities, he was beaten out for the starting job. I don't see how this is a problem.
We're only going to get a free agent if we offer more than 120% of what most other teams are offering. I really don't see how the hypo above would prevent us from doing so.
I really do see your concerns and the issues, but he's Darren Collison.
We signed a borderline starter to a bigger contract than anyone else offered. We started him for one year as we said we would. When he was good, but not in the top 1/2 of the league as his spot we allowed him to compete for the starting spot the next year in an open competition. Just like in 3 other cities, he was beaten out for the starting job. I don't see how this is a problem.
We're only going to get a free agent if we offer more than 120% of what most other teams are offering. I really don't see how the hypo above would prevent us from doing so.
I really do see your concerns and the issues, but he's Darren Collison.
It's hard enough building a team when you don't have a deep talent hole to get out of and you don't have the dagger of Cousins' leaving hanging over your head. I think if the Kings FO gets too wrapped up in this Cousins thing they are going to make some terrible decisions - they won't keep Cousins, and like you say, they will have a bunch of mediocre assets with which to rebuild. They may want to get complementary mediocre vets for Cousins to play with now, but if Cousins leaves they are just left with mediocrity, period.