The truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time (ESPN) + more

Peter_Gibbons · Jan 28, 2011

Just in time for our battle tonight against the lakers, here are a few interesting articles all about the validity of kobe and his "clutch" reputation. I started a thread about kobe being overrated as a clutch performer a while ago and some called me crazy for not thinking kobe is clutch.

These articles provides a TON of info in different situations and scenarios of which could be considered crunch time.

The truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24200/the-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time

Trailing by one or two points, or tied, in the final 24 seconds

1.)Carmelo Anthony (21/44) 47.7%
2.)Chris Paul (14/31) 45.2%
3.)Hedo Turkoglu (12/30) 40%
.
.
.
25.)Kobe Bryant (36/115) 31.3%
Entire league (2038/6861) 29.7%

Wait, you mean Kobe isn’t Mr. Clutch?

http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/01/28/wait-you-mean-kobe-isnt-mr-clutch

Regarding lakers' offense with kobe on the floor in crunch time...

"That is unthinkably bad. To put it in perspective, the Cavaliers offense’, on pace to be one of the worst in modern NBA history, is scoring about 99.5 points per 100 possessions this season. So the Lakers’ offense in these particular clutch situations has been 17 points per 100 possessions worse than the Cavaliers’ putrid offense. And that 17-point gap is larger than the difference between Cleveland’s offense and the league’s best this season!"

Kobe in the clutch, again

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ba...ive_dimension=carousel_ept_sports_nba_experts

"Here's what does repeat itself: Kobe, shooting jumpers poorly, in the final minutes of a game. You can't argue that. You can remember the makes all you want, they were loads of fun, but you cannot dismiss the history that tells you that Kobe Bryant shoots a ton of jumpers in the last few minutes of games, with a success rate that has to be seen to be believed."

hoopsfan · Jan 28, 2011

You all can think what you want but did you see the poll with actual coaches and GM's??... Not what some ESPN writer thinks...Take a guess who people with actual bball experience picked?

(In a general manager poll this season, he earned 79% of the vote, his ninth consecutive blowout.)

Peter_Gibbons · Jan 28, 2011

Some people like to live in a make believe world where they can associate themselves with supporting "the best". On the other hand, the coaches and GM don't necessary keep track of the real stats. Its impossible for them to watch all the games every night while coaching their own team. They too are susceptible to the hype and what the popular opinion is.

Its not just game winners we are talking. Review the wide range of scenarios when kobe just stagnant the offense with misses and ball hogging. Most recent example? GM 7 finals vs Celtics. The articles gave some valid points on why people blindly believe kobe is the best in the clutch. Its called hype, national TV and ESPN's own sports center and Fox Sports showing the highlights over and over again when he does make a game winner while downplaying the misses.

If you can look at the real facts and stats and still choose to believe kobe is today's mr clutch then go ahead, I'm not trying to convince laker fans.

hrdboild · Jan 28, 2011

It's not that surprising. Kobe has the most "makes" on the list, that makes him most clutch in a lot of people's minds. He also has the most attempts by far which has been a poorly kept secret for a long time now. He takes low percentage shots and just enough of them go in for him to continue getting away with it. Phil Jackson finally called him out this season, but it doesn't really matter. His reputation is pretty much set at this point. Anything from now on will be considered "revisionist history" in the same way Jordan has become untouchable.

I think Lebron is already well on his way to being Kobe's successor in the least clutch department for the exact same reason. And he'll be similarly hailed for it.

Superman · Jan 28, 2011

I just don't think that shooting percentages with the game on the line are really a good indication of who should be taking the last shot. If that was the case, then you're telling me you'd rather have Vince Carter or Rashard Lewis taking the shot than Kobe Bryant. I don't think he's infallible in the clutch like so many people argue (obviously, he's not), but I don't think that list is really setting anything straight either. If you can honestly tell me that Shawn Marion is the third best player in the NBA over the last 15 seasons with the game on the line, then we can talk. Until then, you have to reconcile that list with what really happens in the NBA.

You also have to acknowledge that a lot of the players on that list have wound up with wide open shots as a result of a more ball dominant player getting it to them at the end of the game, including Carmelo. While most of Kobe's end of game shots have come with a hand in his face. That list doesn't take that into consideration.

Peter_Gibbons · Jan 28, 2011

Superman said:

Why did I know you would be defending kobe at some point

If you read what I wrote, its not just about game winners. The list is just what everyone looks at without reading the other stuff. If you read the articles in full, it gives you a lot more facts in different situations as to what people may consider as crunch time other than game winners. kobe unsurprisingly has a negative effect in many of those situations.

Also I think you are missing the point with what the writer was comparing regarding the game winners part of it. He lists the facts about kobe vs other players who has taken at least 30 shots in game winning situations NOT to show that Shawn Marion is the 3rd best.

Its really to show us that kobe is a mere mortal just like the rest of the league. If you notice the rest of the league's percentage is just slightly below kobe while a lot of players above.

Peter_Gibbons · Jan 28, 2011

hrdboild said:

Well said.

Another interesting point is contrary to his rep as Mr. Big Shot, Billups actually has the LOWEST game winner percentage of all. He had a nice run in those couple series at his peak. But Billups has been shooting very poorly in crunch time since. But no one notices because he too has reached untouchable status when it comes to "big shots". The good ol hype machine.

uolj · Jan 31, 2011

From what I saw this analysis is about last minute (or rather, last 24 second) shots. Billups, for example, might get better in the fourth quarter, earning him "clutch" status, but not be great at getting a last shot to go in. Bryant's reputation probably has more to do with the bulk of his attempts, though.

One thing I wonder is whether they could factor in free throws or three pointers. A true or effective shooting percentage might be higher for someone like Bryant who gets foul calls.

I did notice that the Kings at their best had three people on that list, Turkoglu, Bibby and Webber. I'd be curious to see individual teams' numbers over the past decade or so.

Superman · Jan 31, 2011

Peter_Gibbons said:

Isn't that essentially what I said?

I'm not defending Kobe. I just don't think these numbers and breakdowns take into consideration the game situations that a player is put in or even creates with the game on the line. For instance, having Shawn Marion at third suggests that there are some limitations with this analysis, doesn't it?

Padrino · Jan 31, 2011

here's the truth about kobe bryant:

5x nba champion, 2x nba finals mvp, 1x nba mvp, 13x all star, 2x scoring champion, 8x all-nba first team...

is this a man i'd want taking the last shot in a given game?

you're goddamn right...

the stats given in this article are a big pile of whatever.

hrdboild · Jan 31, 2011

Padrino said:

I'm not saying you're a Laker fan...but you sure do sound a lot like a Laker fan.

est.1999 · Jan 31, 2011

I'll be the first to say that Kobe ain't as clutch as advertised, but I think these stats are kinda gay.

Padrino · Jan 31, 2011

hrdboild said:

been a kings fan my whole life. but that certainly doesn't preclude me from recognizing greatness elsewhere when i see it. are you telling me that non-bulls fans in the 90's would have thought any differently about michael jordan? everybody knew who was gonna take that last shot:

and basketball lore wouldn't want it any other way. as instrumental as steve kerr was on that bulls squad, nobody expects him to step in and take that shot. we want to remember the legend hitting those big shots. and THAT is why players like jordan and kobe are the ones taking those shots...

there's a bigger picture that often extends beyond the limits of the average fan's vision. it doesn't necessarily matter what one's position or relationship to the lakers is. it doesn't even matter what the stats are. like jordan, kobe byrant should be taking the last shot, because he wants it more than anybody else out there. history rewards these kinds of players, as well as their fans. history also rewards the fans on the other side of that fence, because, if you can't win it all, that energy needs to be directed at an object of vilification. somebody has to be the bad guy. for kings fans, kobe bryant is certainly that. often, we want him taking that shot precisely so he can miss it. he'll only make so many of them. truthfully, he'll likely miss more than he makes. but the ones he makes will go down in history, alongside those five rings. champions step up and take big shots. it's that simple. the stats overlook legacy, and legacy is one of the most important elements of professional sports...

mac · Feb 1, 2011

Peter_Gibbons said:

Thanks for the interesting post. Like a lot of people though, I think that stats can only tell you so much. I didn't read the links but what I do know is that stats can't take into consideration how much focus opposing defences give to Bryant.

While he may miss a lot of shots, coaches and most fans would probably pick Kobe to be the go-to man in crunch time, simply because he has delivered more than anyone else. He's also missed a lot of shots, but it's like ... would you rather JJ Barea, who is shooting 86% on FTs this season (73-85) or Kobe (82%, 296-361) take the last two free throws of the game? That said, he's also known to be a bit of a ball hog, especially in his younger days. At the end of the day, Kobe is pretty much the guy you think of when you think "game winner" and "clutch", whether the stats support it or not, and I don't think that many human beings could have come to such a conclusion without good reason.

Also, I personally feel that guys like Kobe and Jordan are as good as they are because they are one of the few players who have mastered the turn around, fade away jumper. It's a tough shot, but damn near impossible to defend well. Guys who rely on dribble penetration can be contained by the best defenses, with shooters you need to run plays to get them open through screens and all. But by giving the ball to players like Kobe and Jordan, and having them take their man one on one, either backing down or crossing and then fading away for a shot you minimise turnover opportunities and basically put the ball in the hands of your best ball handlers as well.

hrdboild · Feb 1, 2011

Padrino said:

You trotted out the list of Kobe's championships and All-Star nods as if that somehow absolves him of any mistakes he makes on the court. That's a classic Laker fan argument. Basically it's the same thing as saying "I'm not going to intelligently argue this point with you, instead I'm just going to point to the rings" ... as if the other 9 or 10 players on the floor with him didn't play a role in his success. As if All-Star spots and All-NBA teams aren't just as susceptible to false impressions as "clutch" status is.

I would acknowledge that Kobe is a great player, however, he's also the most selfish player in the league and his tendency to force up bad shots unconsciously in his quest to be "the man" often hurts his team more than it helps them. The only reason they won game 7 of the Finals last year, to pick just one example, is because Ron Artest hit some big shots down the stretch. Kobe very nearly shot them out of the game (fourth quarter bail-out free throws not withstanding).

As far as "clutch" status -- a bad shot is a bad shot no matter how much time is on the clock. Kobe shoots a significantly lower percentage on last second shots than he averages over a season. Yes that is partially because the defense knows he's going to take the shot and they try to prevent it. But the whole point is to win the game is it not? And a clutch player is going to make the best play possible to help his team win. Often times that best play is not going to be a shot, it's going to be a pass -- especially if everyone in the arena expects you to shoot it and the defense is going to double team you as soon as you get the ball. Kobe cares more about hitting the game winning shot than he cares about making the best possible play. He's eliminated the other options in his mind. That's why he's not clutch. It's a myth which continues to exist because he's hit big shots in big games and people tend to remember the makes more than the misses. Oh yeah, and the rings.

Superman · Feb 1, 2011

hrdboild said:

You're ignoring the clock. Sometimes you have to take a bad shot. Your teammate is open because the defense knows that there isn't enough time to pass the ball and get a shot off, so they send an extra defender at you.

I disagree that Kobe cares more about hitting the shot than making the big play. Circa 2003? Sure. These days, he'll willingly pass the ball to an open teammate with the game on the line, as long as there's time to do so. He hit Fisher for a big three pointer against the Jazz in the playoffs. And there was another play against the Celtics where Kobe was a designed decoy, drew a double-team, and Fisher was wide open for the shot.

Again, I'm not trying to argue that Kobe is a great teammate who single-handedly gets his team in position to win and is infallible in the clutch. My argument is two-fold, and it's simple: In considering game winning shots, I think there's a lot more to be considered than shooting percentage, and in considering what's clutch and what's not, there's a lot more to talk about than game-winning shots. As such, I don't think a chart breaking down shooting percentages tells a fair story, and the fact that Shawn Marion is third on that list -- in my mind -- speaks to flaws inherent in that system.

Kobe gets a lot of credit where perhaps it should be tempered, like the game against the Bucks last year. He misses the shot at the end of regulation, and then makes the shot at the end of overtime. The Bucks played it exactly the same both times (if I remember correctly), which is stupid not to give him a different look in that situation. And then, for weeks, it's all about how great Kobe is with the game on the line, ignoring the fact that his failure in regulation with the game on the line is the only reason they needed a big shot in overtime. He gets praised for the successes, but there's no criticism of the failures (at least not as much as I think there should be). The bank shot against Miami was a joke. But if you give him the ball with the game on the line, he's going to make it interesting.

Padrino · Feb 1, 2011

hrdboild said:

i don't understand your argument. yes, the whole point is to win the game. but is winning a championship not the ultimate realization of that goal? who cares if you're clutch if you don't win rings? kobe's got five of 'em. and he's hit big shots on his way to those five rings. and of course people will remember the makes more than the misses, because he's got the rings that give those big shots meaning...

kings fans remember the kings of the early-2000's very fondly. the rest of the league may also remember them fondly, because they were a fun team to watch. but game 7 of the 2002 western conference finals meant something. it meant a whole lot, and when clutch time came, where were the kings? still complaining about the refs, who blew game 6. but that was in the past. game 7 was what mattered, because it's what was in front of them. and what'd the kings do? they shot 50% from the free throw line as a team and choked away home court advantage. do people remember how clutch mike bibby was during that series? sure. kings fans do, especially. but more importantly, people remember how badly the kings choked on their home court. and they were a good free throw shooting team. that is when the misses are remembered; when it costs you championships. if the kings go on to win that series, they likely go on to win the championship, by steamrolling the sixers or nets or whatever other pee-poor team the eastern conference was trotting out there in the finals. mike bibby attains legendary status as a clutch, ice-cold laker-killer, and chris webber makes a compelling case for the hall of fame, injury-shortened career aside. but, without that ring, bibby is fading into relative obscurity as a one-dimensional jump shooter on a good-but-never-good-enough atlanta hawks team, and chris webber is still flashing that famous smile on nba tv as a regular analyst, but he lacks the credential that would make it easier for him to sit next to kevin mchale, a hall-of-famer and 3-time nba champion...

and what of bryant? well, once again, he's sitting on five rings, and he might not be finished yet. shaq was a major component in three of them. pao gasol was a major component in two of them. but it comes down to this: the lakers rarely win in spite of kobe bryant. sure, he's a ballhog. sure, he takes plenty of ill-advised shots. but he's also one of the most cerebral offensive players in the game, and he wants to win more than anybody else. and he has won more than anybody else in recent history. shaq's got four. duncan's got four. kobe's got five. of course kobe's clutch shooting is a myth. the nba is constructed on myths and legends. most clutch players are never gonna hit more than 30-40% of those big shots. this is not exclusive to kobe bryant, though, and the point is not that he has to justify his "clutch status" by hitting a certain percentage of those big shots. the point is that the big shots he does hit lead his team to winning championships. that's what makes him clutch, and that's what history remembers...

for the record, i hate kobe bryant. but sometimes you just have to say, "damn," and acknowledge that you, as a fan of nba basketball, are witnessing history...

hrdboild · Feb 1, 2011

Padrino said:

I don't see how this is relevant to Kobe. The Kings sucked in game 7, I agree. But the series is over in 6 games if not for some of the worst, most one-sided officiating in NBA playoff history. And that's all that stood between Kobe and one of those 5 rings. Some questionable officiating played a big role in ring number 5 too. So if we're just counting rings and ignoring the rest, well, we'd be ignoring a whole lot.

Fair enough, though now I think we're both arguing on the same side.

Superman too. It seems like we mostly differ in regards to how much of the "clutch status" is genuine and how much is hyperbole. As far as I'm concerned, the ideal clutch player is going to play exactly the same as the clock ticks down as they do the rest of the time because the pressure won't bother them. The thing I don't like about Kobe is that his efficiency goes down the more he tries to force stuff which he still does a lot in the fourth quarter. Like everyone else he's chasing the legend of Michael Jordan more than the actual player. And now people have to chase the legend of Kobe Bryant too which is more fabricated than truth. It's just motivation for bad basketball. I will say this in Kobe's favor -- like all great players he wants to be the one who makes the decision when it comes to it. He puts himself in position to fail. And I do respect him for that.

Peter_Gibbons · Feb 1, 2011

mac said:

The whole point was to read ALL the different ways they analyzed it. The "game winner" percentages is just what everyone looks at and stops reading. Kobe made the most game winners but also missed by FAR the most. If you gave another player as many chances, would they have hit a lot more? Probably.

Again, read the other stuff as its really interesting and covers a lot more than just game winners. It includes how kobe affects the overall offense in crunch time etc etc.

Peter_Gibbons · Feb 1, 2011

Superman said:

Firstly, I don't know why you keep only referring to the game winners list part. Go through the other stuff also. Many other negative impacts kobe causes in crunch time to his team other than missing game winners.

You implied that you would much rather have kobe take the last shot every single time if you had a choice over other players. But the stats doesn't lie.

Knowing that defenses will cover kobe tightly and he will shoot about 31% in these situations, it doesn't make much of a difference if another player on the team shoots it under less defensive pressure. That actual statistics tells you that the result will be very close to the same. It may actually be a wiser choice since the opposing team almost expects to ball to go to kobe.

At the same time, other superstars that draws tight defense in crunch time just like kobe performs better than kobe. That tells you kobe performs worse in the clutch just like most players do and not become superhuman like media wants many of you to believe. All lot of people believe kobe actually shoots better in the clutch and plays better in the clutch and thats not the case. Thats basically all the writers are saying. If you agree with that then we are all on the same page.

Peter_Gibbons · Feb 1, 2011

hrdboild said:

Thats exactly the point. Its more than just game winners. kobe has a whopping 1 assist during his entire career in game winning situations. And no, not every single of those situations were where there wasn't enough time to pass. Many many of those opportunities involved kobe dribbling out the clock and end up forcing a bad shot because he made up his mind he was going to be the one taking the shot before the play started. That contributes greatly to kobe not being a good clutch player because he does not make the correct decision that helps his team win.

Also can anyone list kobe's most iconic shots? Just last playoffs, kobe missed game winning shots that would advance the lakers to the next series in series against OKC and suns. One shot that barely drew iron and the other was an airball. I remember Horry and Fisher hitting a lot of BIG shots in the playoffs. But kobe's game winner % is actually even lower than 31%. What does that tell us?

Vlade4GM · Feb 1, 2011

Clutch is all perception and selective memory.

JJ22L · Feb 9, 2011

This thread is great and all and I agree that numbers don't lie, but when it comes down to it I wouldn't mind Kobe taking my game winner. I had to put my Kobe-hatred aside to make that comment, so only expect it once.

In the long run, after a little bit of maturity growth, I would take 'Reke 10/10 times, though. Kobe relies on the outside shot to finish his game winners. I have no doubt 'Reke will rely on his ability to get to the rim to sink a winner (eventually). A much better percentage shot (although I am sure teams will stuff the paint..which will probably increase his assists during game winners, etc).

The truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time (ESPN) + more

Starter

Starter

Starter

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

All-Star

Starter

Starter

Starter

All-Star

All-Star

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

Starter

All-Star

All-Star

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

All-Star

All-Star

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!

Starter

Starter

Starter

All-Star

Starter