MIT CONFERENCE: 13 NBA Positions Instead of 5.

According to a statistician at a recent MIT conference, there are 13 positions on a team as opposed to 5. They are as follows:

Offensive Ball Handler
Defensive Ball Handler
Combination Ball Handler
Shooting Ball Handler
Role-Playing Ball Handler
3 Point Rebounder
Scoring Rebounder
Scoring Paint Protector
Paint Protector
--
All NBA 1st Team
All NBA 2nd Team
One of a Kind
Role Player

I listed the last 4 separetely for 2 reasons: 1) those categories can clearly overlap with the ones above and 2) no team in the NBA has 13 players that all receive playing time. Thus, I felt obliged to winnow the list by 1) combining offensive/defensive ball handler (few if any teams have 5 guards that all get playing time), 2) Using the last 4 categories as complimentary descriptors, since they do not indicate a specific position, and 3) adding 2 more "bigs," so no team roles the ball out with only 2. As a result, available slots have been reduced from 14 to 10, a rotation more representative of actual NBA rosters. A last point of clarification, the "one of a kind" descriptor does not indicate level of talent, but rather players that are hard to pin down into specific categories, since their configuration of attributes are unique compared to other players. Accordingly, I have applied this title to Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins.

Note. The Kings were one of the few teams to not attend the MIT conference and GMs responded that they are in the "stone age" in regards to statistical anaylsis. With that said, I thought it would be interesting to plug the Kings' current roster into this configuration, so here goes.

GUARDS
Offensive/Defensive Ball Handler: Isaiah Thomas
Combination Ball Handler (possibly NBA 2nd Team, "One of a Kind"): Tyreke Evans
Shooting Ball Handler: Marcus Thornton
Role-Playing Ball Handler: Jimmer Fredette

Analysis: In terms of complimentary pieces, the Kings seem strongest in their backcourt. From a management perspective, the guards should probably stay put and grow together (mean age of about 22) unless a team makes them an "offer they can't refuse." in terms of quality, Jimmer Fredette may be the weakest at this point, but he seems adequate if given the monicker of "role-playing" ball handler status, or 4th guard. If there was one areas of relative weakness, the Kings may not have a "Defensive Ball Handler," a player who is considered an upper echelon perimeter defender. But Thomas has his moments and Evans certainly has the physical potential, although I doubt the latter's defensive BBIQ. I have applied the "NBA 2nd Team" descriptor to Tyreke since he is probably the team's second best player when potential is considered. I also realize that this is likely his ceiling. Thus, the Kings may need a player of higher caliber behind Demarcus if they are to legitimately fit this profile.

SMALL FORWARDS:
3 Point Rebounder: ????? (Possibly Tyler Honeycutt down the road)
Scoring Rebounder: ????? (Possibly Donte Greene down the road)

Analysis: The swingman spot appears by far the weakest on this team (so much so that Tyreke is currently starting there out of position). The existing players at this position are not sufficient in regards to 3 point shooting percentage or ability to sccore. Only one is an adequate rebounder when he gets minutes: Donte Greene. John Salmons is scoring better of late but is inconsistent from 3 and a poor rebounder. Francisco Garcia is shooting better from 3 recently, but his percentage is still sub standard. Both are undersized for the position as well, which is part of what "rebounder" implies. Donte Greene may show the most promise as he can rebound effectively and has good size for the position, but he is wildly inconsistent on offense, both as a 3 point shooter and scorer. If he can become a reliable threat from 3 or as a scorer, then Donte may fill one of these two spots--although at "role player" status. Tyler Honeycutt may someday become a quality 3 point shooter who can rebound well as a small forward, but he is an unproven prospect at present and may also reach no higher than a quality "role player." Travis Outlaw has been horrible on basically all fronts, so I feel no need to exlpain why he doesn't make the cut. Thus, moving "forward," the swingman position appears the most significant area of concern for this Kings team with 2 positions of concern to fill.

POWER FORWARDS/CENTERS
Scoring Paint Protector (possibly NBA 1st Team, "One of a Kind"): Demarcus Cousins
Paint Protector: ?????
Role Player #1: Jason Thompson
Role Player #2: ????? (Possibly Chuck Hayes now or Hassan Whiteside down the road)

Analysis: The Kings' "bigs" seem somewhat complimentary, although the question of quality arises again, as it did with the team's small forwards. The most glaring concern is a starting caliber "paint protector." Hassan Whiteside has potential and the right physical tools, but I can list him no higher than as a 4th big. I have also added Chuck Hayes as a 4th big candidate and he would seem more viable if the Kings pick up said paint protector. JJ Hickson has been left off of this list since he has no defined role (of merit), will probably be traded, and has played far below expectations.

CONCLUSIONS: These positions, as defined at the MIT conference, don't really tell us fans what we don't already know: the Kings' most glaring needs are at small forward and power forward/center. With that said, it seems to reinforce the type of players that many think the team needs at those positions, a starting quality 1) efficient 3 point shooter and/or scorer at small forward with sufficient size and 2) big who can protect the paint. Some fans still believe that the Kings need a "pure" point guard to compliment the backcourt, but the emergence of Isaiah Thomas has cemented a quality, young 4 guard rotation in my mind, which I would not change unless moving one could improve the needs discussed above. There was also the issue of the "NBA 2nd Team" descriptor, as Tyreke Evans may never quite reach this level. As a result, the starting small forward would probably need to be the team's second best player.
 
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So in short, the Kings need 2 significant pieces to add to the following depth chart:

Thomas/Fredette
Evans/Thornton
?????/ (possibly Greene or Honeycutt down the road)
?????/Thompson
Cousins/ (possibly Hayes now or Whiteside down the road)

Position 1: A starting small forward that can shoot from 3 efficiently with good size. This player should be the second best player to Demarcus.
Position 2: A starting power forward or center than can protect the paint. This player should be a quality starter but with a role player mentality.

If we assume the above, the trading block is as follows:

More desirable:
Hickson
Greene
(possibly Hayes)

Less Desirable:
Garcia
Salmons
Outlaw

Factor in the Kings' cap space next season and their draft pick, which will likely be top 10, the Kings must acquire these 2 players with any combination of more valuable trade pieces (Hickson, Greene, possibly Hayes if management believes in Whiteside), cap space, and their 1st round pick.
 
links

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-120305/nba-mit-sloan-wrap

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/trading-small-forward-for-scoring-rebounder/

06analytics-blog480.jpg
 
This makes my head want to explode. My only response is there is no way Tyreke Evans is anywhere close to 2nd NBA team or "One of a Kind." Not yet at least....
 
Yeah, it kind of sounds like they took some boxscore stats and did some multi-dimensional clustering (though without seeing the actual paper I can't say for sure). I'm not convinced it does much more than describe things - "Looking at box score stats, there are about 13 clusters of play style" kind of thing. Which is fine and dandy but I'm not sure it adds much to the discussion of how you build a winning team, at least in its current stage.
 
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